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Rule Morning Frost

Waynesville - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Waynesville, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
0%
Soil Temperature15.0°C
Dew Point12.7°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed1.9m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York
Next opportunity
Moderate Frost
Waynesville
Wed, Mar 18 · 06:53–07:00 · 1h window
Medium confidence
41%
❄️Frost Probability76%
Soil Temperature: 0.3°C
Dew Point: -8.8°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed: 1.0m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover: 31%
thermometer-snow weather icon
Moderate Frost at Sunrise
Waynesville
Wed, Mar 18 · 07:00–08:00
❄️Frost Probability:70%
Low
thermometer-snow weather icon
Moderate Frost (radiative)
Waynesville
Thu, Mar 19 · 06:52–07:00
❄️Frost Probability:71%
Low

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 74 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Thu, Mar 12
24:00✕0%3.8m/s
01:00✕0%4.1m/s
02:00✕0%3.1m/s
03:00✕0%1.9m/s
04:00✕0%1.4m/s
05:00✕0%3.5m/s
06:00✕0%3.8m/s
07:00✓0%3.7m/s
08:00✓0%4.1m/s
09:00✓0%3.4m/s
10:00✕0%4m/s
11:00✕0%4.7m/s
12:00✕0%4.5m/s
13:00✕0%4.1m/s
14:00✕0%5.1m/s
15:00✕0%4.5m/s
16:00✕0%4.3m/s
17:00✕0%3.8m/s
18:00✕0%3.5m/s
19:00✕0%2.3m/s
20:00✕4.4%1.5m/s
21:00✕4.4%0.93m/s
22:00✕4.6%0.61m/s
23:00✕5%0.52m/s
Fri, Mar 13
24:00✕5%1.1m/s
01:00✕5%1.8m/s
02:00✕5%2.3m/s
03:00✕5%2.5m/s
04:00✕5%2.7m/s
05:00✕52%2.5m/s
06:00✕50%3m/s
07:00✓41%3.2m/s
08:00✓26%3.2m/s
09:00✓39%3.6m/s
10:00✕44%4.2m/s
11:00✕26%4.7m/s
12:00✕26%4.6m/s
13:00✕20%5.1m/s
14:00✕35%5.4m/s
15:00✕35%5.5m/s
16:00✕33%5.8m/s
17:00✕3.8%5.1m/s
18:00✕4.2%4m/s
19:00✕3.9%3.5m/s
20:00✕3.3%2.6m/s
21:00✕4.7%2.6m/s
22:00✕4.2%2.5m/s
23:00✕3.8%2.3m/s
Sat, Mar 14
24:00✕43%2.2m/s
01:00✕27%2.2m/s
02:00✕20%2.1m/s
03:00✕20%2m/s
04:00✕20%1.9m/s
05:00✕22%1.6m/s
06:00✓22%1.4m/s
07:00✓22%1.3m/s
08:00✓26%1.2m/s
09:00✓3.9%1.7m/s
10:00✕0%2.3m/s
11:00✕0%2.8m/s
12:00✕0%2.7m/s
13:00✕0%2.5m/s
14:00✕0%2.4m/s
15:00✕0%2.3m/s
16:00✕0%2.2m/s
17:00✕0%2.2m/s
18:00✕0%2.2m/s
19:00✕0%2.2m/s
20:00✕0%2.2m/s
21:00✕0%2.2m/s
22:00✕0%2.2m/s
23:00✕0%2.2m/s
Sun, Mar 15
24:00✕0%2.1m/s
01:00✕0%2.1m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Mar 12 Sunrise 07:46 Sunset 19:36
03:00 ☾
13°C 15°C 14°C - 100% 0.14kPa
04:00 ☾
12°C 15°C 13°C - 100% 0.08kPa
05:00 ☾
8.5°C 15°C 8.9°C - 100% 0.03kPa
06:00 ☾
5.9°C 14°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.03kPa
07:00 ☾
3.6°C 13°C 4°C - 100% 0.02kPa
08:00
1.3°C 13°C 1.8°C - 100% 0.02kPa
09:00
-0.2°C 12°C 0.81°C - 100% 0.05kPa
10:00
-1.5°C 11°C 0.33°C - 100% 0.08kPa
11:00
-2.1°C 11°C 0.07°C - 81% 0.09kPa
12:00
-2.8°C 10°C 0.47°C - 53% 0.13kPa
13:00
-4.7°C 9.7°C 2.1°C - 2% 0.28kPa
14:00
-6.3°C 9.5°C 2.9°C - 0% 0.37kPa
15:00
-7.6°C 9.3°C 3.4°C - 0% 0.43kPa
16:00
-7.7°C 9.2°C 3.9°C - 0% 0.46kPa
17:00
-7.1°C 9°C 3.5°C - 0% 0.43kPa
18:00
-7.2°C 8.7°C 2.6°C - 0% 0.38kPa
19:00
-7°C 8.3°C 1.3°C - 0% 0.31kPa
20:00 ☾
-6.4°C 8°C -1.1°C - 5% 0.19kPa
21:00 ☾
-6.6°C 7.9°C -1.7°C - 0% 0.17kPa
22:00 ☾
-7.1°C 7.9°C -1.8°C - 0% 0.18kPa
23:00 ☾
-7.9°C 7.9°C -1.7°C - 0% 0.2kPa
Fri, Mar 13 Sunrise 07:45 Sunset 19:37
24:00 ☾
-8.5°C 7.9°C -1.5°C - 0% 0.23kPa
01:00 ☾
-8.9°C 7.5°C -1.4°C - 5% 0.24kPa
02:00 ☾
-8.4°C 7°C -1.2°C - 5% 0.24kPa
03:00 ☾
-8.3°C 6.5°C -1.1°C - 0% 0.24kPa
04:00 ☾
-8.9°C 6.1°C -1°C - 0% 0.25kPa
05:00 ☾
-8.6°C 5.7°C -1°C - 0% 0.25kPa
06:00 ☾
-7.4°C 5.4°C -0.99°C - 0% 0.22kPa
07:00 ☾
-6.5°C 5.1°C -1.1°C - 5% 0.19kPa
08:00
-6.5°C 4.7°C -1.1°C - 90% 0.19kPa
09:00
-6.2°C 4.6°C 1.4°C - 50% 0.29kPa
10:00
-6.4°C 4.6°C 4.6°C - 5% 0.47kPa
11:00
-6.2°C 4.6°C 7.2°C - 83% 0.63kPa
12:00
-5.9°C 4.6°C 8.6°C - 89% 0.72kPa
13:00
-5.6°C 4.6°C 10°C - 90% 0.84kPa
14:00
-5.4°C 4.7°C 12°C - 6% 0.97kPa
15:00
-4.6°C 5°C 12°C - 3% 0.95kPa
16:00
-3.8°C 5.6°C 12°C - 5% 0.91kPa
17:00
-2.5°C 6.1°C 11°C - 5% 0.85kPa
18:00
-0.4°C 6.5°C 11°C - 4% 0.69kPa
19:00
-0.2°C 6.7°C 8.2°C - 37% 0.48kPa
20:00 ☾
-0.3°C 6.7°C 4.6°C - 79% 0.25kPa
21:00 ☾
-0.4°C 6.5°C 4°C - 5% 0.22kPa
22:00 ☾
-0.4°C 6.3°C 3.4°C - 5% 0.18kPa
23:00 ☾
-0.3°C 6.2°C 3°C - 23% 0.16kPa
Sat, Mar 14 Sunrise 07:44 Sunset 19:38
24:00 ☾
-0.4°C 6°C 2.7°C - 8% 0.15kPa
01:00 ☾
-0.5°C 5.8°C 2.4°C - 31% 0.14kPa
02:00 ☾
-0.5°C 5.6°C 2.3°C - 89% 0.13kPa
03:00 ☾
-0.4°C 5.4°C 2.3°C - 100% 0.13kPa
04:00 ☾
-0.2°C 5.2°C 2.4°C - 100% 0.13kPa
05:00 ☾
0°C 5.1°C 2.5°C - 100% 0.12kPa
06:00 ☾
0.1°C 4.9°C 2.4°C - 100% 0.11kPa
07:00 ☾
0.4°C 4.8°C 2.8°C - 100% 0.12kPa
08:00
0.5°C 4.7°C 2.9°C - 50% 0.12kPa
09:00
2.2°C 6.7°C 7.5°C - 35% 0.32kPa
10:00
3.2°C 8.6°C 12°C - 20% 0.63kPa
11:00
3°C 11°C 17°C - 5% 1.1kPa
12:00
4.2°C 11°C 14°C - 3% 0.76kPa
13:00
4.7°C 11°C 11°C - 2% 0.48kPa
14:00
4.6°C 11°C 8.7°C - 0% 0.27kPa
15:00
4°C 11°C 8°C - 0% 0.26kPa
16:00
3.3°C 10°C 7.3°C - 0% 0.25kPa
17:00
2.6°C 10°C 6.6°C - 0% 0.24kPa
18:00
2.4°C 9.8°C 6.5°C - 0% 0.25kPa
19:00
2.1°C 9.5°C 6.5°C - 0% 0.26kPa
20:00 ☾
1.9°C 9.2°C 6.5°C - 0% 0.26kPa
21:00 ☾
2.4°C 9°C 6.4°C - 5% 0.24kPa
22:00 ☾
2.8°C 8.8°C 6.4°C - 10% 0.21kPa
23:00 ☾
3.2°C 8.6°C 6.4°C - 15% 0.19kPa
Sun, Mar 15 Sunrise 07:42 Sunset 19:39
24:00 ☾
4.2°C 8.4°C 6.4°C - 12% 0.14kPa
01:00 ☾
5°C 8.2°C 6.4°C - 9% 0.09kPa
02:00 ☾
5.8°C 8.1°C 6.3°C - 7% 0.03kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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