Rule
Morning Frost
Morning Frost Forecast for Waynesville, Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge
Waynesville, North Carolina, United States
Waynesville occupies a broad mountain basin, where farms, church spires, and receding Blue Ridge slopes create layered western North Carolina views.
2 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.
Hourly forecast scores
Forecast valid from Oct 7, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC (one hour; not an observation)Soil Temperature16.4°C
Dew Point12.8°C
Wind Speed1.2m/s
Cloud Cover0%
Upcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
Times shown in America/New_York
First upcoming window
Light Frost (radiative) at Sunrise
Waynesville
Mon, Oct 19 · 07:00–08:00 · 1h window
Low confidence
28%
❄️Frost Probability61%
Dew Point: 1.0°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed: 1.4m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover: 0%
Light Frost at Sunrise
Waynesville
Tue, Oct 20 · 07:00–08:00
❄️Frost Probability:63%
Low
72-hour requirements breakdown
When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 72-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in America/New_York.
Most common blockers
Ranked across the 95-hour forecast horizon, not the full opportunity period.
- Frost Probability100% of hours
- Time Window83% of hours
- Wind Speed65% of hours
0matching hours in the displayed 72-hour forecast
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time America/New_York | Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m | Frost Probability ≥ 60.0% | Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 7 | |||
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.2m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.2m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.32m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.92m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.5m/s. Meets requirement |
| Thu, Oct 8 | |||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.1m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.7m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.85m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 4.8%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 5%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.6m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 5%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.73m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.92m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.5m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.7m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.3m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.4m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.3m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.6m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.7m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.4m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.7m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.5m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Fri, Oct 9 | |||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.1m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.72m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 3.2%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.98m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 3.1%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.92m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 2.9%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.2m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 2.9%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 3.3%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.1m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 3.3%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.2m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.5m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 0.82m/s. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.7m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.6m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.6m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.6m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Sat, Oct 10 | |||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 1.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.3m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.7m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Time Window: Yes. Meets requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.2m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.8m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.5m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 4.1m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 3.5m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.5m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.9m/s. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Time Window: No. Misses requirement | Frost Probability: 0%. Misses requirement | Wind Speed: 2.7m/s. Misses requirement |
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).
Supporting forecast inputs
Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.
| Forecast time (America/New_York) | Dew Point | Surface Temperature | Temperature | Time Window | Total Cloud Coverage | Vapor Pressure Deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 7, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||
| 13°C | 16°C | 21°C | Unavailable | 0% | 1kPa | |
| Night | 12°C | 13°C | 19°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.81kPa |
| Night | 10°C | 13°C | 18°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.79kPa |
| Night | 9.9°C | 12°C | 17°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.68kPa |
| Night | 8°C | 12°C | 16°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.78kPa |
| Thu, Oct 8, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||
| Night | 6.6°C | 11°C | 16°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.83kPa |
| Night | 5.7°C | 11°C | 16°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.84kPa |
| Night | 4.8°C | 10°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.82kPa |
| Night | 4.3°C | 9.6°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.83kPa |
| Night | 4.6°C | 8.9°C | 14°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.75kPa |
| Night | 4.9°C | 8.3°C | 14°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.71kPa |
| Night | 5.1°C | 7.6°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.66kPa |
| Night | 4.7°C | 6.2°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.67kPa |
| 4.4°C | 6.6°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.66kPa | |
| 6.1°C | 15°C | 16°C | Unavailable | 0% | 0.83kPa | |
| 7.7°C | 20°C | 20°C | Unavailable | 0% | 1.3kPa | |
| 8°C | 22°C | 23°C | Unavailable | 0% | 1.7kPa | |
| 8.4°C | 23°C | 24°C | Unavailable | 0% | 1.9kPa | |
| 8.4°C | 25°C | 25°C | Unavailable | 0% | 2.1kPa | |
| 7.7°C | 25°C | 26°C | Unavailable | 0% | 2.3kPa | |
| 7.6°C | 25°C | 27°C | Unavailable | 0% | 2.4kPa | |
| 7.7°C | 24°C | 26°C | Unavailable | 0% | 2.3kPa | |
| 8°C | 23°C | 26°C | Unavailable | 0% | 2.2kPa | |
| 9°C | 21°C | 24°C | Unavailable | 0% | 1.9kPa | |
| 8.7°C | 17°C | 22°C | Unavailable | 100% | 1.4kPa | |
| Night | 7.6°C | 13°C | 20°C | Unavailable | 53% | 1.2kPa |
| Night | 7.5°C | 12°C | 18°C | Unavailable | 100% | 1.1kPa |
| Night | 7.1°C | 11°C | 17°C | Unavailable | 89% | 0.97kPa |
| Night | 4.1°C | 11°C | 16°C | Unavailable | 72% | 1kPa |
| Fri, Oct 9, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||
| Night | 3.7°C | 9.5°C | 16°C | Unavailable | 97% | 1kPa |
| Night | 4.1°C | 8.8°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 94% | 0.92kPa |
| Night | 3.3°C | 8.2°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.91kPa |
| Night | 3.5°C | 7.6°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.89kPa |
| Night | 3°C | 7.3°C | 14°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.86kPa |
| Night | 3.5°C | 6.9°C | 14°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.85kPa |
| Night | 3.5°C | 6.7°C | 14°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.81kPa |
| Night | 3.7°C | 6.5°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.74kPa |
| 4°C | 6.7°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.69kPa | |
| 6°C | 13°C | 16°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.86kPa | |
| 6.5°C | 18°C | 19°C | Unavailable | 100% | 1.2kPa | |
| 5.7°C | 20°C | 22°C | Unavailable | 100% | 1.7kPa | |
| 6.5°C | 21°C | 23°C | Unavailable | 100% | 1.9kPa | |
| 7.9°C | 23°C | 23°C | Unavailable | 100% | 1.7kPa | |
| 8.8°C | 22°C | 23°C | Unavailable | 100% | 1.7kPa | |
| 9.2°C | 22°C | 21°C | Unavailable | 100% | 1.4kPa | |
| 10°C | 21°C | 20°C | Unavailable | 100% | 1.1kPa | |
| 11°C | 19°C | 20°C | Unavailable | 100% | 1kPa | |
| 11°C | 17°C | 18°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.75kPa | |
| 9.8°C | 14°C | 16°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.55kPa | |
| Night | 8.3°C | 13°C | 15°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.56kPa |
| Night | 6.9°C | 12°C | 14°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.63kPa |
| Night | 6.4°C | 12°C | 14°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.64kPa |
| Night | 6.4°C | 11°C | 14°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.61kPa |
| Sat, Oct 10, 2026Sunrise · Sunset | ||||||
| Night | 6.5°C | 11°C | 14°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.59kPa |
| Night | 6.4°C | 11°C | 14°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.59kPa |
| Night | 5.9°C | 11°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.59kPa |
| Night | 5.7°C | 12°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.61kPa |
| Night | 5.7°C | 12°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.59kPa |
| Night | 5.4°C | 12°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.62kPa |
| Night | 5.1°C | 13°C | 13°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.61kPa |
| Night | 6.7°C | 13°C | 12°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.38kPa |
| 8.4°C | 12°C | 10°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.14kPa | |
| 8.4°C | 11°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.19kPa | |
| 8.5°C | 11°C | 10°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.12kPa | |
| 8.9°C | 12°C | 9.7°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.06kPa | |
| 9.6°C | 12°C | 10°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.04kPa | |
| 10°C | 12°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.04kPa | |
| 11°C | 13°C | 11°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.03kPa | |
| 12°C | 13°C | 12°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.04kPa | |
| 12°C | 13°C | 12°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.03kPa | |
| 12°C | 13°C | 12°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.01kPa | |
| 12°C | 13°C | 12°C | Unavailable | 100% | 0.01kPa | |
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Waynesville.
Explore Morning Frost conditions across Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Waynesville during the last 365 days.
Last 30 days
2
recorded matching windows · 67% average confidence
Last 90 days
2
recorded matching windows · 67% average confidence
Last 365 days
12
recorded matching windows · 59% average confidence
Most frequent recorded start hour
07:00 local time, shared by 4 of 12 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
Most represented month
February, with 6 of 12 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
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How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
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