Morning Frost Forecast for Sylva, Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge
Sylva's courthouse-topped main street sits in a narrow wooded valley, with nearby ridgelines and the southern Blue Ridge Parkway adding elevation.
Currently
Real-time conditionsUpcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
No opportunities in the next 14 days
See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.
Most common blockers (86-hour forecast)
- Frost Probability100% of hours
- Time Window88% of hours
- Wind Speed33% of hours
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Sylva.
Explore Morning Frost conditions across Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Sylva during the last 365 days.
February, with 9 of 12 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
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86-hour requirements breakdown
When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 86-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.
Time America/New_York | Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m | Frost Probability ≥ 60.0% | Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Aug 22 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.84m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.73m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.78m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.83m/s |
| 05:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.37m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 0% | 0.35m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 0% | 0.29m/s |
| 08:00 | ✓ | 0% | 0.61m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.96m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.3m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.6m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.1m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.2m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.7m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 0% | 4m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 0% | 5.2m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 0% | 4.7m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 0% | 3.5m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.6m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.22m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.69m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.59m/s |
| Sun, Aug 23 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.13m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.57m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.6m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.2m/s |
| 05:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.97m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 0% | 0.92m/s |
| 08:00 | ✓ | 0% | 0.9m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.2m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.7m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.5m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 0% | 3.4m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 0% | 4m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 0% | 4.1m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 0% | 4.3m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 0% | 4.3m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 0% | 4m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 0% | 3.4m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.9m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.3m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.68m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.82m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.71m/s |
| Mon, Aug 24 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.73m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.68m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.3m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1m/s |
| 05:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.92m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 0% | 0.8m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| 08:00 | ✓ | 0% | 1m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.94m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.81m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.3m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.4m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.7m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.8m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.6m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.2m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.4m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.6m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.98m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.96m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.94m/s |
| Tue, Aug 25 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.98m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.77m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.48m/s |
| 05:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.2m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 0% | 0.49m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 0% | 0.78m/s |
| 08:00 | ✓ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.2m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
What does Frost Probability mean?
Inputs that drive the scoreThis derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.
| Time America/New_York | Dew Point °C | Surface Temperature °C | Temperature °C | Time Window | Total Cloud Coverage % | Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Aug 22
Sunrise 06:58
Sunset 20:12 | ||||||
| 16:00 | 11°C | 21°C | 29°C | - | 5% | 2.7kPa |
| 17:00 | 11°C | 21°C | 28°C | - | 0% | 2.4kPa |
| 18:00 | 14°C | 21°C | 26°C | - | 0% | 1.8kPa |
| 19:00 | 15°C | 21°C | 24°C | - | 0% | 1.2kPa |
| 20:00
☾
| 16°C | 21°C | 20°C | - | 0% | 0.56kPa |
| 21:00
☾
| 15°C | 21°C | 19°C | - | 0% | 0.47kPa |
| 22:00
☾
| 15°C | 21°C | 18°C | - | 0% | 0.35kPa |
| 23:00
☾
| 15°C | 21°C | 17°C | - | 0% | 0.24kPa |
| Sun, Aug 23
Sunrise 06:58
Sunset 20:11 | ||||||
| 24:00
☾
| 15°C | 21°C | 16°C | - | 0% | 0.16kPa |
| 01:00
☾
| 15°C | 20°C | 16°C | - | 0% | 0.11kPa |
| 02:00
☾
| 15°C | 20°C | 16°C | - | 0% | 0.09kPa |
| 03:00
☾
| 15°C | 20°C | 15°C | - | 2% | 0.07kPa |
| 04:00
☾
| 15°C | 20°C | 15°C | - | 2% | 0.05kPa |
| 05:00
☾
| 14°C | 20°C | 15°C | - | 0% | 0.05kPa |
| 06:00
☾
| 14°C | 20°C | 14°C | - | 1% | 0.04kPa |
| 07:00 | 14°C | 19°C | 14°C | - | 3% | 0.04kPa |
| 08:00 | 15°C | 19°C | 15°C | - | 7% | 0.07kPa |
| 09:00 | 16°C | 19°C | 18°C | - | 2% | 0.27kPa |
| 10:00 | 15°C | 19°C | 21°C | - | 0% | 0.76kPa |
| 11:00 | 11°C | 19°C | 23°C | - | 0% | 1.5kPa |
| 12:00 | 8.2°C | 19°C | 24°C | - | 0% | 2kPa |
| 13:00 | 5.9°C | 20°C | 26°C | - | 0% | 2.4kPa |
| 14:00 | 4.3°C | 20°C | 26°C | - | 0% | 2.6kPa |
| 15:00 | 3.1°C | 20°C | 26°C | - | 0% | 2.7kPa |
| 16:00 | 3.9°C | 20°C | 26°C | - | 0% | 2.6kPa |
| 17:00 | 5.6°C | 20°C | 25°C | - | 0% | 2.3kPa |
| 18:00 | 8.8°C | 20°C | 24°C | - | 5% | 1.8kPa |
| 19:00 | 11°C | 20°C | 21°C | - | 53% | 1.2kPa |
| 20:00
☾
| 11°C | 20°C | 17°C | - | 5% | 0.62kPa |
| 21:00
☾
| 9.8°C | 20°C | 15°C | - | 94% | 0.49kPa |
| 22:00
☾
| 9.5°C | 20°C | 14°C | - | 54% | 0.44kPa |
| 23:00
☾
| 9.4°C | 20°C | 13°C | - | 100% | 0.36kPa |
| Mon, Aug 24
Sunrise 06:59
Sunset 20:10 | ||||||
| 24:00
☾
| 9.2°C | 19°C | 13°C | - | 84% | 0.36kPa |
| 01:00
☾
| 9°C | 19°C | 13°C | - | 68% | 0.33kPa |
| 02:00
☾
| 8.8°C | 19°C | 13°C | - | 100% | 0.32kPa |
| 03:00
☾
| 8.7°C | 19°C | 12°C | - | 89% | 0.26kPa |
| 04:00
☾
| 8.5°C | 19°C | 12°C | - | 100% | 0.25kPa |
| 05:00
☾
| 8.6°C | 18°C | 11°C | - | 100% | 0.23kPa |
| 06:00
☾
| 8.6°C | 18°C | 11°C | - | 100% | 0.2kPa |
| 07:00 | 8.6°C | 18°C | 11°C | - | 62% | 0.2kPa |
| 08:00 | 9.7°C | 18°C | 13°C | - | 83% | 0.29kPa |
| 09:00 | 10°C | 18°C | 17°C | - | 59% | 0.65kPa |
| 10:00 | 11°C | 18°C | 20°C | - | 61% | 1.1kPa |
| 11:00 | 9.7°C | 18°C | 22°C | - | 84% | 1.5kPa |
| 12:00 | 8°C | 18°C | 24°C | - | 59% | 1.9kPa |
| 13:00 | 6.5°C | 18°C | 25°C | - | 96% | 2.3kPa |
| 14:00 | 6°C | 18°C | 26°C | - | 35% | 2.4kPa |
| 15:00 | 5.9°C | 19°C | 27°C | - | 86% | 2.6kPa |
| 16:00 | 5.8°C | 19°C | 27°C | - | 100% | 2.6kPa |
| 17:00 | 6.3°C | 19°C | 26°C | - | 42% | 2.5kPa |
| 18:00 | 9.3°C | 19°C | 25°C | - | 92% | 2kPa |
| 19:00 | 13°C | 19°C | 21°C | - | 10% | 1.1kPa |
| 20:00
☾
| 11°C | 19°C | 17°C | - | 100% | 0.62kPa |
| 21:00
☾
| 10°C | 19°C | 16°C | - | 74% | 0.56kPa |
| 22:00
☾
| 8.7°C | 18°C | 14°C | - | 48% | 0.5kPa |
| 23:00
☾
| 7.4°C | 18°C | 13°C | - | 22% | 0.45kPa |
| Tue, Aug 25
Sunrise 07:00
Sunset 20:09 | ||||||
| 24:00
☾
| 8.1°C | 18°C | 14°C | - | 45% | 0.49kPa |
| 01:00
☾
| 8.7°C | 17°C | 15°C | - | 69% | 0.54kPa |
| 02:00
☾
| 9.4°C | 17°C | 16°C | - | 93% | 0.58kPa |
| 03:00
☾
| 9.8°C | 17°C | 17°C | - | 87% | 0.75kPa |
| 04:00
☾
| 10°C | 17°C | 19°C | - | 82% | 0.94kPa |
| 05:00
☾
| 10°C | 17°C | 21°C | - | 76% | 1.2kPa |
| 06:00
☾
| 10°C | 18°C | 22°C | - | 79% | 1.4kPa |
| 07:00
☾
| 9.7°C | 18°C | 24°C | - | 82% | 1.7kPa |
| 08:00 | 9.1°C | 18°C | 25°C | - | 85% | 2kPa |
| 09:00 | 9.5°C | 18°C | 24°C | - | 84% | 1.9kPa |
| 10:00 | 9.9°C | 18°C | 24°C | - | 84% | 1.7kPa |
| 11:00 | 10°C | 18°C | 23°C | - | 83% | 1.6kPa |
| 12:00 | 11°C | 18°C | 21°C | - | 56% | 1.1kPa |
| 13:00 | 12°C | 18°C | 19°C | - | 28% | 0.75kPa |
| 14:00 | 12°C | 18°C | 16°C | - | 0% | 0.45kPa |
| 15:00 | 12°C | 18°C | 16°C | - | 34% | 0.41kPa |
How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
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