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Rule Morning Frost

Maggie Valley - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Maggie Valley, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 90% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
0%
Soil Temperature19.2°C
Dew Point16.4°C (high dew point)
Wind Speed1.0m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover0%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Jul 7
09:00✕0%0.87m/s
10:00✕0%0.96m/s
11:00✕0%0.79m/s
12:00✕0%1.1m/s
13:00✕0%1.5m/s
14:00✕0%1.4m/s
15:00✕0%1.6m/s
16:00✕0%1.1m/s
17:00✕0%0.81m/s
18:00✕0%0.69m/s
19:00✕0%0.83m/s
20:00✕0%0.96m/s
21:00✕0%1.3m/s
22:00✕0%0.82m/s
23:00✕0%1.5m/s
Wed, Jul 8
24:00✕0%1.5m/s
01:00✕0%1.4m/s
02:00✕0%1.2m/s
03:00✕0%1.5m/s
04:00✕0%1.7m/s
05:00✓0%1.8m/s
06:00✓0%1.7m/s
07:00✓0%1.7m/s
08:00✕0%1.6m/s
09:00✕0%1.4m/s
10:00✕0%1m/s
11:00✕0%0.85m/s
12:00✕0%1.7m/s
13:00✕0%2.5m/s
14:00✕0%2.5m/s
15:00✕0%2.2m/s
16:00✕0%2.4m/s
17:00✕0%1.5m/s
18:00✕0%1.5m/s
19:00✕0%1.8m/s
20:00✕0%1.7m/s
21:00✕0%1.8m/s
22:00✕0%1.8m/s
23:00✕0%1.9m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:00✕0%1.8m/s
01:00✕0%2m/s
02:00✕0%2.1m/s
03:00✕0%2m/s
04:00✕0%2.1m/s
05:00✓0%2m/s
06:00✓0%2m/s
07:00✓0%2m/s
08:00✕0%1.8m/s
09:00✕0%2m/s
10:00✕0%2.6m/s
11:00✕0%3.3m/s
12:00✕0%3.8m/s
13:00✕0%4.1m/s
14:00✕0%3.3m/s
15:00✕0%3.7m/s
16:00✕0%4.1m/s
17:00✕0%3.4m/s
18:00✕0%3.3m/s
19:00✕0%1.9m/s
20:00✕0%1.8m/s
21:00✕0%2m/s
22:00✕0%2m/s
23:00✕0%2.2m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:00✕0%2.2m/s
01:00✕0%2.2m/s
02:00✕0%2.4m/s
03:00✕0%2.4m/s
04:00✕0%2.4m/s
05:00✓0%2.6m/s
06:00✓0%2.5m/s
07:00✓0%2.4m/s
08:00✕0%2.4m/s
09:00✕0%2.9m/s
10:00✕0%3.6m/s
11:00✕0%4.1m/s
12:00✕0%4.4m/s
13:00✕0%4.4m/s
14:00✕0%4.8m/s
15:00✕0%4m/s
16:00✕0%3.1m/s
17:00✕0%2.3m/s
18:00✕0%2.2m/s
19:00✕0%2.1m/s
20:00✕0%1.9m/s
21:00✕0%1.7m/s
22:00✕0%1.5m/s
23:00✕0%1.4m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:00✕0%1.5m/s
01:00✕0%1.6m/s
02:00✕0%1.8m/s
03:00✕0%2.1m/s
04:00✕0%2.5m/s
05:00✓0%2.8m/s
06:00✓0%2.5m/s
07:00✓0%2.2m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 06:24 Sunset 20:50
10:00
16°C 19°C 24°C - 0% 1.1kPa
11:00
16°C 19°C 26°C - 6% 1.6kPa
12:00
15°C 20°C 27°C - 32% 1.9kPa
13:00
14°C 20°C 28°C - 9% 2.2kPa
14:00
13°C 20°C 29°C - 15% 2.5kPa
15:00
13°C 20°C 29°C - 67% 2.5kPa
16:00
15°C 21°C 27°C - 98% 1.8kPa
17:00
17°C 21°C 24°C - 6% 0.98kPa
18:00
15°C 21°C 26°C - 45% 1.7kPa
19:00
16°C 21°C 25°C - 6% 1.3kPa
20:00 ☾
17°C 21°C 22°C - 54% 0.67kPa
21:00 ☾
16°C 21°C 20°C - 10% 0.56kPa
22:00 ☾
15°C 21°C 18°C - 1% 0.43kPa
23:00 ☾
15°C 21°C 18°C - 0% 0.39kPa
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 06:25 Sunset 20:50
24:00 ☾
15°C 21°C 18°C - 0% 0.35kPa
01:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 17°C - 2% 0.29kPa
02:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 17°C - 0% 0.22kPa
03:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 16°C - 0% 0.14kPa
04:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 16°C - 0% 0.09kPa
05:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 16°C - 0% 0.08kPa
06:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 16°C - 0% 0.08kPa
07:00
15°C 20°C 16°C - 0% 0.12kPa
08:00
16°C 20°C 19°C - 0% 0.37kPa
09:00
16°C 20°C 22°C - 0% 0.86kPa
10:00
15°C 20°C 24°C - 5% 1.3kPa
11:00
14°C 20°C 25°C - 22% 1.6kPa
12:00
15°C 20°C 26°C - 26% 1.8kPa
13:00
15°C 20°C 26°C - 25% 1.7kPa
14:00
15°C 20°C 27°C - 26% 1.9kPa
15:00
14°C 21°C 28°C - 48% 2.2kPa
16:00
13°C 21°C 28°C - 79% 2.2kPa
17:00
14°C 21°C 27°C - 69% 1.9kPa
18:00
16°C 21°C 24°C - 96% 1.2kPa
19:00
17°C 21°C 21°C - 41% 0.52kPa
20:00 ☾
18°C 21°C 20°C - 0% 0.39kPa
21:00 ☾
16°C 21°C 18°C - 1% 0.24kPa
22:00 ☾
16°C 21°C 18°C - 1% 0.21kPa
23:00 ☾
16°C 21°C 17°C - 0% 0.2kPa
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 06:25 Sunset 20:49
24:00 ☾
16°C 21°C 17°C - 3% 0.17kPa
01:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 17°C - 4% 0.16kPa
02:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 16°C - 3% 0.13kPa
03:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 16°C - 0% 0.12kPa
04:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 16°C - 1% 0.12kPa
05:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 16°C - 0% 0.14kPa
06:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 16°C - 12% 0.12kPa
07:00
15°C 20°C 17°C - 32% 0.14kPa
08:00
16°C 20°C 19°C - 5% 0.35kPa
09:00
17°C 20°C 22°C - 5% 0.74kPa
10:00
16°C 20°C 24°C - 2% 1.1kPa
11:00
16°C 20°C 25°C - 6% 1.5kPa
12:00
15°C 20°C 27°C - 5% 1.8kPa
13:00
14°C 20°C 28°C - 1% 2.2kPa
14:00
13°C 21°C 29°C - 0% 2.5kPa
15:00
16°C 21°C 25°C - 33% 1.4kPa
16:00
17°C 21°C 22°C - 66% 0.67kPa
17:00
17°C 21°C 18°C - 98% 0.16kPa
18:00
17°C 21°C 18°C - 99% 0.13kPa
19:00
17°C 21°C 18°C - 99% 0.1kPa
20:00 ☾
17°C 20°C 18°C - 100% 0.08kPa
21:00 ☾
17°C 20°C 18°C - 100% 0.07kPa
22:00 ☾
17°C 20°C 18°C - 100% 0.07kPa
23:00 ☾
17°C 20°C 18°C - 100% 0.07kPa
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 06:26 Sunset 20:49
24:00 ☾
18°C 20°C 18°C - 100% 0.08kPa
01:00 ☾
18°C 20°C 18°C - 100% 0.09kPa
02:00 ☾
18°C 20°C 19°C - 100% 0.1kPa
03:00 ☾
18°C 20°C 21°C - 100% 0.42kPa
04:00 ☾
18°C 20°C 23°C - 100% 0.83kPa
05:00 ☾
17°C 20°C 25°C - 100% 1.3kPa
06:00 ☾
18°C 20°C 24°C - 100% 0.94kPa
07:00
19°C 20°C 23°C - 99% 0.6kPa
08:00
20°C 20°C 22°C - 99% 0.29kPa
09:00
19°C 20°C 21°C - 99% 0.18kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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