What conditions does Morning Frost look for?

Time Window: Sunrise -45m to +90m. Frost Probability: ≥ 60.0%. Wind Speed: ≤ 1.5m/s

How often do conditions match?

There are 5 upcoming opportunity windows in the next 10 days.

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Rule Morning Frost

Maggie Valley - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Maggie Valley, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature15.1°C

Dew Point12.8°C (moderate dew point)

Wind Speed1.1m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

Next opportunity

Moderate Frost

Maggie Valley

Wed, Mar 18 · 06:53–07:00 · 1h window

Medium confidence

46%

❄️Frost Probability80%

Soil Temperature: 0.9°C

Dew Point: -16.9°C (low dew point)

Wind Speed: 0.7m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover: 29%

Moderate Frost at Sunrise

Maggie Valley

Wed, Mar 18 · 07:00–09:00

❄️Frost Probability:72-77%

Medium

Moderate Frost

Maggie Valley

Wed, Mar 18 · 09:00–09:08

❄️Frost Probability:77%

Medium

Light Frost at Sunrise

Maggie Valley

Thu, Mar 19 · 07:00–09:00

❄️Frost Probability:64%

Low

Moderate Frost

Maggie Valley

Thu, Mar 19 · 09:00–09:07

❄️Frost Probability:74%

Low

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 74 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/New_York	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Thu, Mar 12
24:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
01:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
04:00	✕	0%	0.76m/s
05:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
06:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
07:00	✓	0%	3.4m/s
08:00	✓	0%	3.6m/s
09:00	✓	0%	3.9m/s
10:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
12:00	✕	0%	4.2m/s
13:00	✕	0%	4.2m/s
14:00	✕	0%	4.4m/s
15:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
16:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
17:00	✕	0%	3.8m/s
18:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
21:00	✕	4.4%	1.1m/s
22:00	✕	4.6%	0.46m/s
23:00	✕	4.6%	0.32m/s
Fri, Mar 13
24:00	✕	5%	1.1m/s
01:00	✕	5%	2.1m/s
02:00	✕	5%	2.3m/s
03:00	✕	4.6%	2.4m/s
04:00	✕	4.2%	2.3m/s
05:00	✕	43%	2.6m/s
06:00	✕	43%	2.7m/s
07:00	✓	41%	3.1m/s
08:00	✓	41%	3.1m/s
09:00	✓	39%	3.5m/s
10:00	✕	44%	4m/s
11:00	✕	29%	4.3m/s
12:00	✕	26%	4.4m/s
13:00	✕	27%	4.8m/s
14:00	✕	21%	5.1m/s
15:00	✕	24%	5.3m/s
16:00	✕	25%	5.4m/s
17:00	✕	4%	4.6m/s
18:00	✕	4.2%	4.1m/s
19:00	✕	3.2%	3.2m/s
20:00	✕	4.3%	2.8m/s
21:00	✕	4.2%	2.5m/s
22:00	✕	4.2%	2.4m/s
23:00	✕	3.4%	2.2m/s
Sat, Mar 14
24:00	✕	35%	1.9m/s
01:00	✕	27%	1.8m/s
02:00	✕	20%	1.7m/s
03:00	✕	22%	1.6m/s
04:00	✕	22%	1.5m/s
05:00	✕	22%	1.2m/s
06:00	✓	20%	0.95m/s
07:00	✓	32%	0.66m/s
08:00	✓	23%	0.98m/s
09:00	✓	35%	1.1m/s
10:00	✕	37%	1.2m/s
11:00	✕	32%	1.2m/s
12:00	✕	3.6%	1.1m/s
13:00	✕	4.2%	1.4m/s
14:00	✕	0%	2m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
20:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
21:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
22:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
Sun, Mar 15
24:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
01:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/New_York	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Thu, Mar 12 Sunrise 07:47 Sunset 19:37
03:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.06kPa
04:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
05:00 ☾	8.8°C	15°C	9.2°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
06:00 ☾	5.9°C	14°C	6.4°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
07:00 ☾	3.9°C	13°C	4.3°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
08:00	1.7°C	13°C	1.8°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
09:00	0.5°C	12°C	0.89°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
10:00	-0.9°C	11°C	0.34°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
11:00	-1.9°C	11°C	-0.13°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
12:00	-2.2°C	10°C	-0.13°C	-	73%	0.09kPa
13:00	-3.3°C	10°C	1.6°C	-	6%	0.21kPa
14:00	-4.9°C	9.7°C	2.6°C	-	0%	0.31kPa
15:00	-6.1°C	9.5°C	3.8°C	-	0%	0.41kPa
16:00	-6.7°C	9.3°C	3.8°C	-	0%	0.43kPa
17:00	-6.5°C	9.1°C	3.4°C	-	0%	0.4kPa
18:00	-6.6°C	8.9°C	2.4°C	-	1%	0.35kPa
19:00	-6°C	8.5°C	1.3°C	-	1%	0.28kPa
20:00 ☾	-5.8°C	8°C	-1°C	-	0%	0.17kPa
21:00 ☾	-6.1°C	7.8°C	-1.6°C	-	0%	0.16kPa
22:00 ☾	-6.6°C	7.6°C	-1.7°C	-	0%	0.17kPa
23:00 ☾	-7.4°C	7.6°C	-1.8°C	-	0%	0.18kPa
Fri, Mar 13 Sunrise 07:45 Sunset 19:38
24:00 ☾	-8.1°C	7.6°C	-1.7°C	-	0%	0.21kPa
01:00 ☾	-8.3°C	7.3°C	-1.5°C	-	4%	0.22kPa
02:00 ☾	-8°C	6.8°C	-1.3°C	-	2%	0.22kPa
03:00 ☾	-7.4°C	6.5°C	-1.3°C	-	0%	0.2kPa
04:00 ☾	-7.2°C	6.1°C	-1.3°C	-	0%	0.2kPa
05:00 ☾	-6.8°C	5.8°C	-1.1°C	-	0%	0.2kPa
06:00 ☾	-6.4°C	5.5°C	-1.2°C	-	0%	0.18kPa
07:00 ☾	-6.2°C	5.2°C	-1.2°C	-	0%	0.18kPa
08:00	-6.1°C	4.9°C	-1.2°C	-	5%	0.17kPa
09:00	-5.4°C	4.7°C	1.4°C	-	53%	0.27kPa
10:00	-5.1°C	4.7°C	4.4°C	-	18%	0.42kPa
11:00	-4.7°C	4.7°C	6.8°C	-	89%	0.56kPa
12:00	-4.2°C	4.7°C	8.6°C	-	90%	0.67kPa
13:00	-3.8°C	4.7°C	9.9°C	-	63%	0.76kPa
14:00	-3.8°C	4.8°C	12°C	-	61%	0.91kPa
15:00	-3.5°C	5.2°C	12°C	-	58%	0.9kPa
16:00	-2.7°C	5.7°C	12°C	-	64%	0.86kPa
17:00	-1°C	6.1°C	11°C	-	5%	0.78kPa
18:00	0°C	6.5°C	10°C	-	5%	0.65kPa
19:00	0.6°C	6.7°C	8°C	-	85%	0.44kPa
20:00 ☾	0.4°C	6.7°C	5°C	-	16%	0.24kPa
21:00 ☾	0.3°C	6.5°C	4.1°C	-	1%	0.19kPa
22:00 ☾	0.5°C	6.4°C	3.5°C	-	2%	0.15kPa
23:00 ☾	0.4°C	6.2°C	3.2°C	-	5%	0.14kPa
Sat, Mar 14 Sunrise 07:44 Sunset 19:38
24:00 ☾	0.1°C	6°C	2.7°C	-	5%	0.13kPa
01:00 ☾	-0.2°C	5.8°C	2.4°C	-	28%	0.13kPa
02:00 ☾	-0.3°C	5.6°C	2.4°C	-	94%	0.13kPa
03:00 ☾	-0.4°C	5.4°C	2.2°C	-	100%	0.12kPa
04:00 ☾	-0.2°C	5.2°C	2.4°C	-	100%	0.12kPa
05:00 ☾	-0.2°C	5°C	2.2°C	-	100%	0.11kPa
06:00 ☾	0°C	4.9°C	2.1°C	-	67%	0.1kPa
07:00 ☾	-0.1°C	4.7°C	2°C	-	25%	0.1kPa
08:00	-0.1°C	4.5°C	2.4°C	-	80%	0.12kPa
09:00	1°C	4.6°C	5.6°C	-	100%	0.26kPa
10:00	1.6°C	5°C	9.5°C	-	88%	0.5kPa
11:00	1.9°C	5.6°C	13°C	-	84%	0.76kPa
12:00	2.1°C	6.5°C	15°C	-	35%	1kPa
13:00	1.8°C	7.5°C	16°C	-	8%	1.2kPa
14:00	1.7°C	8.4°C	17°C	-	25%	1.3kPa
15:00	2.1°C	9.2°C	17°C	-	18%	1.2kPa
16:00	2.6°C	9.9°C	17°C	-	12%	1.2kPa
17:00	3°C	11°C	17°C	-	5%	1.1kPa
18:00	4.2°C	11°C	14°C	-	3%	0.76kPa
19:00	4.7°C	11°C	11°C	-	2%	0.48kPa
20:00 ☾	4.6°C	11°C	8.7°C	-	0%	0.27kPa
21:00 ☾	4°C	11°C	8°C	-	0%	0.26kPa
22:00 ☾	3.3°C	10°C	7.3°C	-	0%	0.25kPa
23:00 ☾	2.6°C	10°C	6.6°C	-	0%	0.24kPa
Sun, Mar 15 Sunrise 07:43 Sunset 19:39
24:00 ☾	2.4°C	9.8°C	6.5°C	-	0%	0.25kPa
01:00 ☾	2.1°C	9.5°C	6.5°C	-	0%	0.26kPa
02:00 ☾	1.9°C	9.2°C	6.5°C	-	0%	0.26kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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