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Rule Morning Frost

Maggie Valley - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Maggie Valley, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 96% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature15.2°C
Dew Point11.8°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed1.9m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover96%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, May 17
24:000%1.7m/s
01:000%1.9m/s
02:000%2.1m/s
03:000%2.3m/s
04:000%2.2m/s
05:000%1.8m/s
06:000%2.2m/s
07:000%2m/s
08:000%1.6m/s
09:000%1.9m/s
10:000%1.5m/s
11:000%2m/s
12:000%1.9m/s
13:000%2.2m/s
14:000%2.6m/s
15:000%2.8m/s
16:000%3.2m/s
17:000%3.3m/s
18:000%3.2m/s
19:000%2.4m/s
20:000%2.1m/s
21:000%2.1m/s
22:000%2.1m/s
23:000%2m/s
Mon, May 18
24:000%2.3m/s
01:000%1.8m/s
02:000%2.4m/s
03:000%1.7m/s
04:000%1.5m/s
05:000%1.9m/s
06:000%1.8m/s
07:000%1.8m/s
08:000%1.4m/s
09:000%1.5m/s
10:000%1.9m/s
11:000%2.3m/s
12:000%2.9m/s
13:000%3.4m/s
14:000%3.6m/s
15:000%3.8m/s
16:000%3.7m/s
17:000%3.5m/s
18:000%3.5m/s
19:000%3.1m/s
20:000%2m/s
21:000%1.8m/s
22:000%1.6m/s
23:000%1.9m/s
Tue, May 19
24:000%2m/s
01:000%2.1m/s
02:000%2.1m/s
03:000%2.2m/s
04:000%1.9m/s
05:000%2.1m/s
06:000%2m/s
07:000%1.7m/s
08:000%1.4m/s
09:000%1.5m/s
10:000%1.8m/s
11:000%2.1m/s
12:000%2.7m/s
13:000%2.9m/s
14:000%3.1m/s
15:000%2.7m/s
16:000%2.2m/s
17:000%1.7m/s
18:000%1.8m/s
19:000%1.9m/s
20:000%2m/s
21:000%2m/s
22:000%2m/s
23:000%2m/s
Wed, May 20
24:000%1.9m/s
01:000%1.8m/s
02:000%1.6m/s
03:000%1.6m/s
04:000%1.6m/s
05:000%1.5m/s
06:000%1.6m/s
07:000%1.7m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, May 17 Sunrise 06:26 Sunset 20:31
09:00
12°C 15°C 19°C - 96% 0.85kPa
10:00
11°C 15°C 22°C - 33% 1.2kPa
11:00
11°C 16°C 23°C - 41% 1.6kPa
12:00
9.3°C 16°C 25°C - 8% 1.9kPa
13:00
8.4°C 16°C 26°C - 4% 2.2kPa
14:00
8.4°C 17°C 27°C - 15% 2.4kPa
15:00
8.9°C 17°C 27°C - 5% 2.4kPa
16:00
9.2°C 17°C 27°C - 5% 2.3kPa
17:00
9.6°C 18°C 26°C - 5% 2.2kPa
18:00
11°C 18°C 25°C - 3% 1.9kPa
19:00
13°C 18°C 23°C - 2% 1.4kPa
20:00
14°C 18°C 19°C - 1% 0.65kPa
21:00
13°C 18°C 17°C - 0% 0.4kPa
22:00
13°C 18°C 16°C - 2% 0.3kPa
23:00
13°C 18°C 16°C - 39% 0.3kPa
Mon, May 18 Sunrise 06:25 Sunset 20:32
24:00
13°C 18°C 16°C - 70% 0.3kPa
01:00
13°C 18°C 16°C - 11% 0.35kPa
02:00
13°C 17°C 16°C - 3% 0.3kPa
03:00
13°C 17°C 15°C - 4% 0.18kPa
04:00
13°C 17°C 14°C - 0% 0.11kPa
05:00
13°C 17°C 14°C - 0% 0.1kPa
06:00
13°C 17°C 14°C - 0% 0.09kPa
07:00
13°C 17°C 14°C - 0% 0.12kPa
08:00
14°C 17°C 17°C - 0% 0.36kPa
09:00
14°C 17°C 20°C - 0% 0.78kPa
10:00
13°C 17°C 22°C - 0% 1.2kPa
11:00
12°C 17°C 24°C - 1% 1.6kPa
12:00
10°C 17°C 25°C - 2% 2kPa
13:00
8.3°C 18°C 26°C - 0% 2.3kPa
14:00
7.2°C 18°C 27°C - 4% 2.5kPa
15:00
7.6°C 18°C 27°C - 1% 2.4kPa
16:00
8.4°C 19°C 26°C - 5% 2.3kPa
17:00
9.1°C 19°C 26°C - 8% 2.1kPa
18:00
9.9°C 19°C 25°C - 5% 1.9kPa
19:00
12°C 19°C 23°C - 0% 1.4kPa
20:00
13°C 19°C 19°C - 1% 0.68kPa
21:00
12°C 19°C 17°C - 4% 0.49kPa
22:00
11°C 19°C 16°C - 5% 0.46kPa
23:00
10°C 19°C 15°C - 0% 0.49kPa
Tue, May 19 Sunrise 06:24 Sunset 20:33
24:00
9.6°C 18°C 15°C - 12% 0.52kPa
01:00
9.3°C 18°C 15°C - 59% 0.51kPa
02:00
9.6°C 18°C 15°C - 100% 0.5kPa
03:00
10°C 18°C 15°C - 100% 0.44kPa
04:00
11°C 18°C 14°C - 100% 0.34kPa
05:00
11°C 18°C 14°C - 100% 0.27kPa
06:00
11°C 18°C 14°C - 100% 0.25kPa
07:00
11°C 17°C 14°C - 91% 0.26kPa
08:00
12°C 17°C 17°C - 51% 0.48kPa
09:00
12°C 17°C 20°C - 8% 1kPa
10:00
9.3°C 18°C 23°C - 7% 1.6kPa
11:00
7.3°C 18°C 25°C - 43% 2.1kPa
12:00
6.2°C 18°C 26°C - 41% 2.3kPa
13:00
5.8°C 18°C 27°C - 73% 2.5kPa
14:00
5.7°C 18°C 27°C - 100% 2.6kPa
15:00
8.3°C 19°C 23°C - 99% 1.7kPa
16:00
9.1°C 19°C 19°C - 97% 1.1kPa
17:00
9°C 19°C 16°C - 96% 0.65kPa
18:00
8.8°C 19°C 16°C - 95% 0.68kPa
19:00
8.6°C 19°C 16°C - 94% 0.72kPa
20:00
8.3°C 19°C 16°C - 93% 0.75kPa
21:00
8.3°C 19°C 15°C - 76% 0.67kPa
22:00
8.2°C 18°C 15°C - 59% 0.59kPa
23:00
8.1°C 18°C 14°C - 42% 0.51kPa
Wed, May 20 Sunrise 06:24 Sunset 20:34
24:00
8.9°C 18°C 15°C - 30% 0.56kPa
01:00
9.7°C 18°C 16°C - 17% 0.61kPa
02:00
11°C 18°C 17°C - 5% 0.67kPa
03:00
11°C 18°C 19°C - 5% 0.94kPa
04:00
11°C 18°C 22°C - 6% 1.3kPa
05:00
11°C 18°C 24°C - 6% 1.7kPa
06:00
11°C 18°C 25°C - 37% 1.9kPa
07:00
10°C 19°C 26°C - 69% 2.2kPa
08:00
9.5°C 19°C 27°C - 100% 2.4kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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