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Rule Morning Frost

Gatlinburg - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Gatlinburg, Tennessee, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 74% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature20.6°C
Dew Point17.7°C (high dew point)
Wind Speed1.3m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover0%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 79 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Jul 8
01:000%2.1m/s
02:000%1.9m/s
03:000%2.1m/s
04:000%2.1m/s
05:000%2.1m/s
06:000%1.9m/s
07:000%1.6m/s
08:000%0.94m/s
09:000%0.9m/s
10:000%1.3m/s
11:000%2m/s
12:000%2.7m/s
13:000%3.1m/s
14:000%3.9m/s
15:000%3.6m/s
16:000%1.2m/s
17:000%1.2m/s
18:000%1.4m/s
19:000%1.5m/s
20:000%1.9m/s
21:000%2.2m/s
22:000%2m/s
23:000%2.1m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%2.1m/s
01:000%2.1m/s
02:000%2.1m/s
03:000%2m/s
04:000%2.1m/s
05:000%2.1m/s
06:000%2m/s
07:000%2m/s
08:000%1.4m/s
09:000%1.7m/s
10:000%2.7m/s
11:000%3.4m/s
12:000%4m/s
13:000%4.2m/s
14:000%3.7m/s
15:000%3.6m/s
16:000%3.3m/s
17:000%3.5m/s
18:000%2.5m/s
19:000%2.3m/s
20:000%2m/s
21:000%2.2m/s
22:000%2.4m/s
23:000%2.5m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%2.6m/s
01:000%2.5m/s
02:000%2.4m/s
03:000%2.3m/s
04:000%2.4m/s
05:000%2.5m/s
06:000%2.3m/s
07:000%2.5m/s
08:000%2.1m/s
09:000%2.5m/s
10:000%3.8m/s
11:000%4.5m/s
12:000%4m/s
13:000%4.6m/s
14:000%4.7m/s
15:000%3.2m/s
16:000%1.6m/s
17:000%0.09m/s
18:000%0.21m/s
19:000%0.33m/s
20:000%0.45m/s
21:000%0.46m/s
22:000%0.47m/s
23:000%0.47m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%0.64m/s
01:000%0.8m/s
02:000%0.96m/s
03:000%1.2m/s
04:000%1.5m/s
05:000%1.7m/s
06:000%1.9m/s
07:000%2m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 06:25 Sunset 20:52
10:00
18°C 21°C 26°C - 0% 1.3kPa
11:00
17°C 21°C 27°C - 7% 1.7kPa
12:00
17°C 21°C 29°C - 16% 2kPa
13:00
16°C 21°C 30°C - 31% 2.3kPa
14:00
16°C 21°C 30°C - 73% 2.4kPa
15:00
18°C 21°C 28°C - 84% 1.7kPa
16:00
19°C 21°C 27°C - 63% 1.3kPa
17:00
19°C 22°C 28°C - 100% 1.6kPa
18:00
20°C 22°C 25°C - 96% 0.91kPa
19:00
20°C 22°C 25°C - 98% 0.77kPa
20:00
19°C 22°C 23°C - 11% 0.68kPa
21:00
18°C 22°C 21°C - 8% 0.49kPa
22:00
17°C 21°C 21°C - 0% 0.48kPa
23:00
17°C 21°C 20°C - 0% 0.47kPa
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 06:26 Sunset 20:52
24:00
17°C 21°C 20°C - 0% 0.46kPa
01:00
17°C 21°C 20°C - 0% 0.43kPa
02:00
17°C 21°C 20°C - 0% 0.39kPa
03:00
17°C 21°C 19°C - 0% 0.37kPa
04:00
17°C 21°C 19°C - 0% 0.36kPa
05:00
17°C 21°C 19°C - 0% 0.38kPa
06:00
16°C 21°C 19°C - 0% 0.39kPa
07:00
17°C 21°C 20°C - 0% 0.39kPa
08:00
18°C 21°C 22°C - 0% 0.54kPa
09:00
18°C 21°C 24°C - 0% 0.96kPa
10:00
18°C 21°C 26°C - 5% 1.3kPa
11:00
17°C 21°C 27°C - 5% 1.6kPa
12:00
17°C 21°C 28°C - 16% 1.8kPa
13:00
17°C 21°C 28°C - 30% 1.8kPa
14:00
18°C 21°C 28°C - 4% 1.8kPa
15:00
18°C 21°C 29°C - 4% 1.9kPa
16:00
18°C 22°C 29°C - 23% 1.9kPa
17:00
19°C 22°C 28°C - 37% 1.6kPa
18:00
19°C 22°C 27°C - 4% 1.4kPa
19:00
20°C 22°C 26°C - 3% 1.1kPa
20:00
20°C 22°C 24°C - 34% 0.65kPa
21:00
18°C 22°C 22°C - 52% 0.59kPa
22:00
17°C 22°C 22°C - 13% 0.61kPa
23:00
17°C 22°C 21°C - 3% 0.55kPa
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 06:26 Sunset 20:51
24:00
17°C 22°C 21°C - 5% 0.54kPa
01:00
17°C 21°C 20°C - 1% 0.52kPa
02:00
16°C 21°C 20°C - 2% 0.5kPa
03:00
16°C 21°C 20°C - 0% 0.53kPa
04:00
16°C 21°C 20°C - 0% 0.56kPa
05:00
16°C 21°C 20°C - 22% 0.51kPa
06:00
16°C 21°C 20°C - 100% 0.49kPa
07:00
17°C 21°C 20°C - 9% 0.47kPa
08:00
18°C 21°C 22°C - 2% 0.59kPa
09:00
18°C 21°C 26°C - 1% 1.2kPa
10:00
18°C 21°C 27°C - 100% 1.6kPa
11:00
17°C 21°C 28°C - 100% 1.7kPa
12:00
17°C 21°C 29°C - 100% 2kPa
13:00
17°C 22°C 29°C - 40% 2.2kPa
14:00
18°C 22°C 30°C - 13% 2.2kPa
15:00
19°C 21°C 26°C - 38% 1.2kPa
16:00
19°C 21°C 23°C - 63% 0.58kPa
17:00
18°C 20°C 19°C - 88% 0.13kPa
18:00
18°C 20°C 19°C - 84% 0.12kPa
19:00
18°C 20°C 18°C - 80% 0.1kPa
20:00
17°C 20°C 18°C - 76% 0.09kPa
21:00
17°C 20°C 18°C - 84% 0.1kPa
22:00
17°C 20°C 18°C - 92% 0.1kPa
23:00
17°C 20°C 18°C - 100% 0.1kPa
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 06:27 Sunset 20:51
24:00
18°C 20°C 18°C - 100% 0.1kPa
01:00
18°C 19°C 19°C - 100% 0.09kPa
02:00
18°C 19°C 19°C - 100% 0.09kPa
03:00
19°C 19°C 20°C - 100% 0.13kPa
04:00
20°C 19°C 21°C - 100% 0.18kPa
05:00
21°C 19°C 22°C - 100% 0.24kPa
06:00
21°C 20°C 22°C - 99% 0.28kPa
07:00
21°C 20°C 23°C - 99% 0.33kPa
08:00
21°C 20°C 23°C - 99% 0.37kPa
09:00
20°C 20°C 21°C - 99% 0.24kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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