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Rule Morning Frost

Gatlinburg - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Gatlinburg, Tennessee, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
0%
Soil Temperature15.8°C
Dew Point8.8°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed2.9m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York
Next opportunity
Moderate Frost
Gatlinburg
Wed, Mar 18 · 06:55–07:00 · 1h window
Low confidence
37%
❄️Frost Probability76%
Soil Temperature: 0.5°C
Dew Point: -7.7°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed: 1.3m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover: 37%

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Mar 11
03:00✕0%2.1m/s
04:00✕0%2.5m/s
05:00✕0%3m/s
06:00✕0%2.5m/s
07:00✓0%2.1m/s
08:00✓0%2.5m/s
09:00✓0%2.2m/s
10:00✕0%1.3m/s
11:00✕0%1.4m/s
12:00✕0%2.2m/s
13:00✕0%3.1m/s
14:00✕0%3.7m/s
15:00✕0%4.2m/s
16:00✕0%4.4m/s
17:00✕0%3.8m/s
18:00✕0%3m/s
19:00✕0%2.3m/s
20:00✕0%2.6m/s
21:00✕0%2.8m/s
22:00✕0%2.6m/s
23:00✕0%2.7m/s
Thu, Mar 12
24:00✕0%2.3m/s
01:00✕0%2.7m/s
02:00✕0%3.2m/s
03:00✕0%2.9m/s
04:00✕0%3.1m/s
05:00✕0%3.8m/s
06:00✕0%4.1m/s
07:00✓0%2.5m/s
08:00✓0%1.7m/s
09:00✓0%2.2m/s
10:00✕0%2.8m/s
11:00✕0%3.3m/s
12:00✕0%3.3m/s
13:00✕0%3.2m/s
14:00✕0%3.1m/s
15:00✕0%3m/s
16:00✕0%2.9m/s
17:00✕0%2.7m/s
18:00✕0%2.2m/s
19:00✕0%1.2m/s
20:00✕0%1m/s
21:00✕0%1.4m/s
22:00✕4.2%1.8m/s
23:00✕4.2%2.2m/s
Fri, Mar 13
24:00✕4.2%2.6m/s
01:00✕4.2%2.3m/s
02:00✕4.2%2.5m/s
03:00✕4.2%2.4m/s
04:00✕43%2.5m/s
05:00✕43%2.8m/s
06:00✕41%2.9m/s
07:00✓41%3.1m/s
08:00✓26%3m/s
09:00✓35%2.8m/s
10:00✕34%2.1m/s
11:00✕37%1.4m/s
12:00✕35%2.2m/s
13:00✕26%3.3m/s
14:00✕3.8%4.3m/s
15:00✕3.2%4.8m/s
16:00✕3.8%4.4m/s
17:00✕3.8%4.5m/s
18:00✕4.2%4.4m/s
19:00✕0%3.3m/s
20:00✕3.6%2.8m/s
21:00✕3.6%2.7m/s
22:00✕4.3%2.5m/s
23:00✕3.9%2.3m/s
Sat, Mar 14
24:00✕4.3%2.4m/s
01:00✕4.3%2.5m/s
02:00✕3.4%2.2m/s
03:00✕3.1%2.1m/s
04:00✕3.1%1.8m/s
05:00✕2.2%1.5m/s
06:00✕2.8%1.6m/s
07:00✓3.4%1.8m/s
08:00✓3.6%1.6m/s
09:00✓4.7%1.9m/s
10:00✕0%2.2m/s
11:00✕0%2.6m/s
12:00✕0%2.4m/s
13:00✕0%2.2m/s
14:00✕0%2m/s
15:00✕0%1.9m/s
16:00✕0%1.8m/s
17:00✕0%1.7m/s
18:00✕0%1.7m/s
19:00✕0%1.8m/s
20:00✕0%1.8m/s
21:00✕0%1.9m/s
22:00✕0%2m/s
23:00✕0%2.1m/s
Sun, Mar 15
24:00✕0%2.1m/s
01:00✕0%2.1m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Mar 12 Sunrise 07:49 Sunset 19:38
03:00 ☾
8.8°C 16°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.02kPa
04:00 ☾
7.3°C 15°C 7.6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
05:00 ☾
5.7°C 15°C 6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
06:00 ☾
4.2°C 14°C 4.4°C - 100% 0.01kPa
07:00 ☾
1.5°C 13°C 1.6°C - 100% 0kPa
08:00
0.8°C 13°C 0.87°C - 100% 0kPa
09:00
0.9°C 12°C 0.94°C - 100% 0kPa
10:00
1°C 12°C 1.3°C - 100% 0.02kPa
11:00
0.4°C 11°C 1.1°C - 100% 0.03kPa
12:00
-0.4°C 11°C 1.6°C - 69% 0.09kPa
13:00
-1.2°C 10°C 3.1°C - 31% 0.2kPa
14:00
-1.4°C 10°C 4.6°C - 1% 0.29kPa
15:00
-2.3°C 10°C 5.4°C - 0% 0.38kPa
16:00
-3°C 9.8°C 5.7°C - 3% 0.42kPa
17:00
-3.4°C 9.7°C 5.8°C - 1% 0.45kPa
18:00
-2.8°C 9.4°C 5.7°C - 0% 0.42kPa
19:00
-0.7°C 9.2°C 4.4°C - 0% 0.25kPa
20:00 ☾
-2.3°C 8.8°C 1.5°C - 5% 0.16kPa
21:00 ☾
-2.8°C 8.3°C 0.73°C - 0% 0.15kPa
22:00 ☾
-3.4°C 7.9°C 0.22°C - 1% 0.14kPa
23:00 ☾
-3.9°C 7.6°C -0.16°C - 2% 0.15kPa
Fri, Mar 13 Sunrise 07:47 Sunset 19:39
24:00 ☾
-4.4°C 7.2°C -0.48°C - 5% 0.15kPa
01:00 ☾
-4.6°C 6.8°C -0.63°C - 9% 0.15kPa
02:00 ☾
-4.5°C 6.4°C -0.6°C - 2% 0.15kPa
03:00 ☾
-4.3°C 6.1°C -0.56°C - 3% 0.14kPa
04:00 ☾
-4.3°C 5.8°C -0.61°C - 2% 0.14kPa
05:00 ☾
-4.5°C 5.6°C -0.71°C - 5% 0.14kPa
06:00 ☾
-4.3°C 5.4°C -0.69°C - 2% 0.14kPa
07:00 ☾
-3.9°C 5.1°C -0.58°C - 5% 0.13kPa
08:00
-3.5°C 4.8°C -0.42°C - 91% 0.12kPa
09:00
-1.6°C 4.7°C 2.1°C - 32% 0.17kPa
10:00
-0.3°C 4.8°C 5.6°C - 63% 0.31kPa
11:00
0.2°C 5°C 8°C - 100% 0.45kPa
12:00
1°C 5.3°C 10°C - 100% 0.58kPa
13:00
0.7°C 5.7°C 13°C - 91% 0.81kPa
14:00
0.8°C 6.1°C 14°C - 8% 0.92kPa
15:00
1.2°C 6.6°C 15°C - 12% 1kPa
16:00
1.8°C 7.1°C 15°C - 4% 1kPa
17:00
3.1°C 7.5°C 14°C - 5% 0.86kPa
18:00
3.4°C 7.9°C 13°C - 3% 0.68kPa
19:00
3.9°C 8°C 10°C - 70% 0.44kPa
20:00 ☾
2.7°C 7.9°C 7.6°C - 42% 0.31kPa
21:00 ☾
2°C 7.8°C 6.8°C - 55% 0.28kPa
22:00 ☾
1.7°C 7.6°C 6.4°C - 12% 0.27kPa
23:00 ☾
1.8°C 7.5°C 6.3°C - 39% 0.26kPa
Sat, Mar 14 Sunrise 07:46 Sunset 19:40
24:00 ☾
2.1°C 7.3°C 6.3°C - 20% 0.24kPa
01:00 ☾
2.4°C 7.2°C 6.2°C - 16% 0.22kPa
02:00 ☾
2.5°C 7.1°C 6°C - 30% 0.2kPa
03:00 ☾
2.6°C 6.9°C 5.9°C - 40% 0.19kPa
04:00 ☾
2.5°C 6.8°C 5.7°C - 53% 0.18kPa
05:00 ☾
2.5°C 6.7°C 5.4°C - 75% 0.17kPa
06:00 ☾
2.5°C 6.5°C 5.3°C - 39% 0.16kPa
07:00 ☾
2.6°C 6.4°C 5.3°C - 5% 0.15kPa
08:00
2.7°C 6.3°C 5.2°C - 5% 0.14kPa
09:00
3.7°C 7.7°C 9.2°C - 5% 0.36kPa
10:00
4°C 9.2°C 13°C - 5% 0.7kPa
11:00
2.9°C 11°C 17°C - 5% 1.2kPa
12:00
4.3°C 11°C 15°C - 3% 0.83kPa
13:00
4.9°C 11°C 12°C - 2% 0.55kPa
14:00
5°C 11°C 9.7°C - 0% 0.33kPa
15:00
4.6°C 11°C 8.9°C - 0% 0.29kPa
16:00
4.2°C 10°C 8°C - 0% 0.25kPa
17:00
3.7°C 10°C 7.2°C - 0% 0.22kPa
18:00
3.4°C 9.9°C 6.9°C - 0% 0.22kPa
19:00
3.1°C 9.6°C 6.6°C - 0% 0.21kPa
20:00 ☾
2.8°C 9.3°C 6.4°C - 0% 0.21kPa
21:00 ☾
2.8°C 9.1°C 6.3°C - 0% 0.21kPa
22:00 ☾
2.8°C 8.8°C 6.3°C - 0% 0.21kPa
23:00 ☾
2.8°C 8.6°C 6.3°C - 0% 0.21kPa
Sun, Mar 15 Sunrise 07:44 Sunset 19:41
24:00 ☾
3.2°C 8.4°C 6.2°C - 3% 0.18kPa
01:00 ☾
3.5°C 8.2°C 6°C - 7% 0.15kPa
02:00 ☾
3.9°C 8°C 5.8°C - 10% 0.12kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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