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Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Gatlinburg, Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Gatlinburg, Tennessee, United States

Gatlinburg provides access to the Smokies' layered ridges, boulder streams, forest trails, and the open meadows and historic cabins of Cades Cove.

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
0%
Soil Temperature21.4°C
Dew Point15.2°C (high dew point)
Wind Speed3.3m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover7%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (95-hour forecast)

  • Frost Probability100% of hours
  • Time Window88% of hours
  • Wind Speed46% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Gatlinburg.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Gatlinburg during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days
0
recorded matching windows
Last 90 days
0
recorded matching windows
Last 365 days
2
recorded matching windows · 66% average confidence

Only 2 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Fri, Aug 21
15:00✕0%1.8m/s
16:00✕0%2.5m/s
17:00✕0%2.6m/s
18:00✕0%3.5m/s
19:00✕0%1.8m/s
20:00✕0%0.97m/s
21:00✕0%1.8m/s
22:00✕0%2.2m/s
23:00✕0%1.5m/s
Sat, Aug 22
24:00✕0%1.8m/s
01:00✕0%1.7m/s
02:00✕0%2.1m/s
03:00✕0%1.8m/s
04:00✕0%1.7m/s
05:00✕0%1.7m/s
06:00✓0%1.5m/s
07:00✓0%1.4m/s
08:00✓0%1.4m/s
09:00✕0%0.6m/s
10:00✕0%1.4m/s
11:00✕0%1.7m/s
12:00✕0%1.9m/s
13:00✕0%2.4m/s
14:00✕0%2.9m/s
15:00✕0%3.3m/s
16:00✕0%3.3m/s
17:00✕0%2.6m/s
18:00✕0%2.4m/s
19:00✕0%2.4m/s
20:00✕0%2.8m/s
21:00✕0%2.4m/s
22:00✕0%2.4m/s
23:00✕0%2.3m/s
Sun, Aug 23
24:00✕0%2m/s
01:00✕0%1.7m/s
02:00✕0%1.3m/s
03:00✕0%0.95m/s
04:00✕0%0.97m/s
05:00✕0%1m/s
06:00✓0%1.1m/s
07:00✓0%0.9m/s
08:00✓0%0.88m/s
09:00✕0%0.67m/s
10:00✕0%1m/s
11:00✕0%1.8m/s
12:00✕0%2.5m/s
13:00✕0%2.9m/s
14:00✕0%2.9m/s
15:00✕0%2.9m/s
16:00✕0%2.5m/s
17:00✕0%2m/s
18:00✕0%1.3m/s
19:00✕0%0.46m/s
20:00✕0%1m/s
21:00✕0%1.6m/s
22:00✕0%1.2m/s
23:00✕0%1.1m/s
Mon, Aug 24
24:00✕0%1.4m/s
01:00✕0%1.7m/s
02:00✕0%1.7m/s
03:00✕0%1.7m/s
04:00✕0%1.3m/s
05:00✕0%1.3m/s
06:00✓0%1.3m/s
07:00✓0%1.4m/s
08:00✓0%1.4m/s
09:00✕0%0.35m/s
10:00✕0%1.2m/s
11:00✕0%1.7m/s
12:00✕0%2.2m/s
13:00✕0%2.4m/s
14:00✕0%2.3m/s
15:00✕0%2.2m/s
16:00✕0%2.7m/s
17:00✕0%2.8m/s
18:00✕0%2m/s
19:00✕0%1.5m/s
20:00✕0%1.6m/s
21:00✕0%1.4m/s
22:00✕0%1.3m/s
23:00✕0%1.1m/s
Tue, Aug 25
24:00✕0%1.1m/s
01:00✕0%1m/s
02:00✕0%0.93m/s
03:00✕0%0.82m/s
04:00✕0%0.71m/s
05:00✕0%0.6m/s
06:00✓0%0.86m/s
07:00✓0%1.1m/s
08:00✓0%1.4m/s
09:00✕0%1.3m/s
10:00✕0%1.3m/s
11:00✕0%1.2m/s
12:00✕0%1.4m/s
13:00✕0%1.6m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sat, Aug 22 Sunrise 06:58 Sunset 20:14
16:00
15°C 21°C 29°C - 7% 2.2kPa
17:00
14°C 21°C 29°C - 8% 2.3kPa
18:00
15°C 22°C 28°C - 92% 2.1kPa
19:00
17°C 22°C 22°C - 49% 0.61kPa
20:00 ☾
18°C 21°C 20°C - 0% 0.36kPa
21:00 ☾
17°C 21°C 19°C - 0% 0.32kPa
22:00 ☾
17°C 21°C 19°C - 0% 0.3kPa
23:00 ☾
16°C 21°C 18°C - 0% 0.24kPa
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:59 Sunset 20:13
24:00 ☾
16°C 21°C 17°C - 0% 0.13kPa
01:00 ☾
16°C 21°C 17°C - 4% 0.12kPa
02:00 ☾
17°C 21°C 18°C - 31% 0.12kPa
03:00 ☾
17°C 20°C 18°C - 12% 0.12kPa
04:00 ☾
16°C 20°C 17°C - 0% 0.09kPa
05:00 ☾
16°C 20°C 16°C - 0% 0.08kPa
06:00 ☾
15°C 20°C 16°C - 0% 0.08kPa
07:00
15°C 20°C 16°C - 0% 0.08kPa
08:00
16°C 20°C 17°C - 0% 0.1kPa
09:00
17°C 20°C 19°C - 0% 0.22kPa
10:00
17°C 20°C 21°C - 0% 0.54kPa
11:00
13°C 20°C 23°C - 0% 1.3kPa
12:00
11°C 20°C 24°C - 0% 1.7kPa
13:00
9.4°C 20°C 25°C - 0% 2kPa
14:00
9.2°C 20°C 26°C - 0% 2.1kPa
15:00
9.4°C 20°C 26°C - 0% 2.2kPa
16:00
9.5°C 20°C 26°C - 0% 2.2kPa
17:00
9.8°C 21°C 26°C - 0% 2.1kPa
18:00
11°C 21°C 25°C - 6% 1.9kPa
19:00
15°C 21°C 23°C - 56% 1.2kPa
20:00 ☾
13°C 21°C 19°C - 20% 0.77kPa
21:00 ☾
12°C 20°C 18°C - 98% 0.69kPa
22:00 ☾
12°C 20°C 18°C - 100% 0.64kPa
23:00 ☾
12°C 20°C 17°C - 100% 0.53kPa
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 07:00 Sunset 20:11
24:00 ☾
12°C 20°C 17°C - 89% 0.49kPa
01:00 ☾
12°C 20°C 16°C - 100% 0.45kPa
02:00 ☾
11°C 20°C 16°C - 100% 0.5kPa
03:00 ☾
11°C 19°C 16°C - 100% 0.47kPa
04:00 ☾
11°C 19°C 15°C - 100% 0.47kPa
05:00 ☾
10°C 19°C 15°C - 100% 0.44kPa
06:00 ☾
10°C 19°C 15°C - 100% 0.42kPa
07:00 ☾
10°C 19°C 14°C - 95% 0.39kPa
08:00
12°C 19°C 16°C - 61% 0.41kPa
09:00
12°C 19°C 19°C - 98% 0.75kPa
10:00
13°C 19°C 21°C - 100% 1kPa
11:00
12°C 19°C 22°C - 99% 1.3kPa
12:00
11°C 19°C 24°C - 100% 1.6kPa
13:00
11°C 19°C 25°C - 100% 1.8kPa
14:00
11°C 19°C 26°C - 97% 2kPa
15:00
10°C 19°C 26°C - 84% 2.1kPa
16:00
10°C 20°C 26°C - 100% 2.1kPa
17:00
11°C 20°C 25°C - 98% 1.9kPa
18:00
12°C 20°C 24°C - 32% 1.6kPa
19:00
15°C 20°C 22°C - 31% 0.93kPa
20:00 ☾
14°C 20°C 19°C - 100% 0.54kPa
21:00 ☾
12°C 19°C 17°C - 84% 0.48kPa
22:00 ☾
10°C 19°C 15°C - 69% 0.43kPa
23:00 ☾
8.5°C 18°C 13°C - 54% 0.38kPa
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 07:01 Sunset 20:10
24:00 ☾
9.2°C 18°C 14°C - 67% 0.4kPa
01:00 ☾
9.9°C 18°C 14°C - 80% 0.41kPa
02:00 ☾
11°C 18°C 15°C - 94% 0.43kPa
03:00 ☾
11°C 18°C 17°C - 85% 0.65kPa
04:00 ☾
12°C 18°C 20°C - 76% 0.91kPa
05:00 ☾
12°C 18°C 22°C - 67% 1.2kPa
06:00 ☾
12°C 18°C 22°C - 73% 1.2kPa
07:00 ☾
13°C 18°C 22°C - 79% 1.1kPa
08:00
13°C 18°C 21°C - 86% 1.1kPa
09:00
13°C 18°C 22°C - 83% 1.1kPa
10:00
13°C 18°C 22°C - 80% 1.2kPa
11:00
13°C 18°C 22°C - 78% 1.2kPa
12:00
13°C 19°C 21°C - 63% 0.93kPa
13:00
13°C 19°C 19°C - 48% 0.68kPa
14:00
13°C 19°C 17°C - 34% 0.46kPa
15:00
13°C 19°C 17°C - 56% 0.45kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →
Forecast generated

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