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Rule Morning Frost

Bryson City - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Bryson City, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 64% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature14.2°C
Dew Point6.4°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed1.1m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover25%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Fri, Apr 17
09:000%0.81m/s
10:000%1.2m/s
11:000%1.4m/s
12:000%1.8m/s
13:000%2.1m/s
14:000%2.2m/s
15:000%2.3m/s
16:000%2.1m/s
17:000%2m/s
18:000%1.9m/s
19:000%1.7m/s
20:000%1.6m/s
21:000%1.1m/s
22:000%1.2m/s
23:000%1.2m/s
Sat, Apr 18
24:000%1m/s
01:000%0.88m/s
02:000%0.96m/s
03:000%1.1m/s
04:000%1.2m/s
05:000%1m/s
06:000%1m/s
07:000%1.7m/s
08:000%0.77m/s
09:000%1.1m/s
10:000%1.4m/s
11:000%2.4m/s
12:000%2.7m/s
13:000%3.2m/s
14:000%3.1m/s
15:000%3.5m/s
16:000%3.8m/s
17:000%3.7m/s
18:000%3m/s
19:000%2.3m/s
20:000%2.1m/s
21:000%1.4m/s
22:000%1.5m/s
23:000%2.1m/s
Sun, Apr 19
24:000%2.1m/s
01:000%2.5m/s
02:000%2.9m/s
03:000%3.5m/s
04:000%3.8m/s
05:000%3.7m/s
06:000%3.5m/s
07:000%3.1m/s
08:000%3m/s
09:000%3m/s
10:000%3.3m/s
11:000%3.4m/s
12:000%3.8m/s
13:000%4.2m/s
14:000%3.8m/s
15:000%3.5m/s
16:000%3.5m/s
17:000%3.4m/s
18:000%3.2m/s
19:000%2.6m/s
20:000%2.3m/s
21:000%2.4m/s
22:000%2.3m/s
23:000%1.9m/s
Mon, Apr 20
24:000%1.4m/s
01:000%1m/s
02:000%0.81m/s
03:000%0.6m/s
04:000%0.43m/s
05:000%0.48m/s
06:000%0.45m/s
07:000%0.49m/s
08:000%0.78m/s
09:000%1.7m/s
10:000%2.3m/s
11:000%3m/s
12:000%3.8m/s
13:000%4.5m/s
14:000%5m/s
15:000%3.8m/s
16:000%2.6m/s
17:000%1.5m/s
18:000%1.2m/s
19:000%0.89m/s
20:000%0.61m/s
21:000%0.76m/s
22:000%0.9m/s
23:000%1.1m/s
Tue, Apr 21
24:000%0.82m/s
01:000%0.59m/s
02:000%0.36m/s
03:000%0.8m/s
04:000%1.2m/s
05:000%1.7m/s
06:000%1.9m/s
07:000%2.1m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sat, Apr 18 Sunrise 06:57 Sunset 20:09
09:00
6.4°C 14°C 16°C - 25% 0.89kPa
10:00
8.5°C 15°C 20°C - 80% 1.2kPa
11:00
10°C 15°C 21°C - 100% 1.3kPa
12:00
11°C 15°C 23°C - 100% 1.4kPa
13:00
11°C 16°C 24°C - 100% 1.6kPa
14:00
11°C 16°C 24°C - 100% 1.7kPa
15:00
10°C 17°C 24°C - 100% 1.8kPa
16:00
10°C 17°C 24°C - 100% 1.8kPa
17:00
10°C 17°C 24°C - 100% 1.7kPa
18:00
12°C 18°C 23°C - 100% 1.5kPa
19:00
13°C 18°C 21°C - 82% 1kPa
20:00
13°C 18°C 18°C - 100% 0.63kPa
21:00
13°C 18°C 18°C - 100% 0.57kPa
22:00
13°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.46kPa
23:00
13°C 17°C 15°C - 100% 0.2kPa
Sun, Apr 19 Sunrise 06:56 Sunset 20:09
24:00
14°C 17°C 14°C - 100% 0.06kPa
01:00
14°C 17°C 14°C - 100% 0.02kPa
02:00
13°C 17°C 13°C - 100% 0.03kPa
03:00
9.6°C 17°C 10°C - 100% 0.05kPa
04:00
6.5°C 16°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.05kPa
05:00
4.8°C 16°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.05kPa
06:00
3.4°C 15°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.06kPa
07:00
2.5°C 14°C 3.9°C - 100% 0.08kPa
08:00
1.7°C 14°C 3.6°C - 100% 0.1kPa
09:00
0.5°C 13°C 3.9°C - 100% 0.17kPa
10:00
-2°C 13°C 5.3°C - 100% 0.36kPa
11:00
-4.7°C 13°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.56kPa
12:00
-5.4°C 13°C 9.5°C - 50% 0.77kPa
13:00
-4.5°C 13°C 11°C - 100% 0.86kPa
14:00
-4.1°C 13°C 11°C - 100% 0.88kPa
15:00
-4.2°C 13°C 12°C - 100% 0.98kPa
16:00
-4.2°C 13°C 13°C - 18% 1kPa
17:00
-3.9°C 13°C 13°C - 0% 0.99kPa
18:00
-3.8°C 13°C 12°C - 0% 0.93kPa
19:00
-2.6°C 13°C 11°C - 0% 0.77kPa
20:00
-1.6°C 13°C 7°C - 0% 0.46kPa
21:00
-1.9°C 12°C 5.2°C - 0% 0.35kPa
22:00
-1.5°C 12°C 4.6°C - 0% 0.3kPa
23:00
-1.6°C 12°C 4.3°C - 0% 0.29kPa
Mon, Apr 20 Sunrise 06:55 Sunset 20:10
24:00
-2.1°C 11°C 4°C - 2% 0.29kPa
01:00
-2.7°C 11°C 3.7°C - 0% 0.29kPa
02:00
-3.1°C 10°C 3.6°C - 0% 0.31kPa
03:00
-3.5°C 10°C 3.5°C - 0% 0.31kPa
04:00
-3.4°C 9.7°C 3.5°C - 0% 0.31kPa
05:00
-3.2°C 9.5°C 3.5°C - 0% 0.3kPa
06:00
-2.9°C 9.2°C 3.5°C - 3% 0.29kPa
07:00
-2.6°C 8.9°C 3.4°C - 3% 0.28kPa
08:00
-0.9°C 8.7°C 6.1°C - 2% 0.37kPa
09:00
0.1°C 8.8°C 9.8°C - 0% 0.59kPa
10:00
0.8°C 9°C 12°C - 0% 0.74kPa
11:00
1°C 9.3°C 14°C - 0% 0.9kPa
12:00
1.2°C 9.7°C 15°C - 0% 1kPa
13:00
1.7°C 10°C 15°C - 2% 1.1kPa
14:00
3.1°C 11°C 16°C - 2% 1kPa
15:00
4.2°C 11°C 12°C - 2% 0.61kPa
16:00
4.4°C 11°C 9.2°C - 1% 0.33kPa
17:00
3.9°C 11°C 6.1°C - 0% 0.13kPa
18:00
3.4°C 11°C 5.7°C - 0% 0.14kPa
19:00
2.8°C 10°C 5.3°C - 0% 0.14kPa
20:00
2.3°C 10°C 4.9°C - 0% 0.15kPa
21:00
2.4°C 9.8°C 4.7°C - 0% 0.13kPa
22:00
2.5°C 9.5°C 4.5°C - 0% 0.11kPa
23:00
2.6°C 9.3°C 4.3°C - 0% 0.09kPa
Tue, Apr 21 Sunrise 06:53 Sunset 20:11
24:00
2.8°C 9°C 5.4°C - 22% 0.15kPa
01:00
2.9°C 8.8°C 6.5°C - 44% 0.21kPa
02:00
3°C 8.6°C 7.5°C - 66% 0.28kPa
03:00
3.5°C 8.9°C 10°C - 69% 0.47kPa
04:00
3.5°C 9.2°C 13°C - 71% 0.72kPa
05:00
3°C 9.6°C 16°C - 74% 1kPa
06:00
2.4°C 10°C 17°C - 83% 1.2kPa
07:00
1.6°C 11°C 18°C - 91% 1.4kPa
08:00
0.6°C 11°C 20°C - 100% 1.6kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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