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Rule Morning Frost

Brevard - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Brevard, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 90% failing
Time Window 85% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
0%
Soil Temperature16.4°C
Dew Point13.4°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed4.8m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover94%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 74 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Thu, Mar 12
24:00✕0%5.7m/s
01:00✕0%5.5m/s
02:00✕0%5.1m/s
03:00✕0%4.8m/s
04:00✕0%4.5m/s
05:00✕0%2.4m/s
06:00✕0%2.3m/s
07:00✓0%4.9m/s
08:00✓0%5.4m/s
09:00✓0%4.6m/s
10:00✕0%5m/s
11:00✕0%6.3m/s
12:00✕0%4.3m/s
13:00✕0%5.2m/s
14:00✕0%6m/s
15:00✕0%6m/s
16:00✕0%5.5m/s
17:00✕0%5m/s
18:00✕0%4.1m/s
19:00✕0%2.6m/s
20:00✕0%2.3m/s
21:00✕0%2.2m/s
22:00✕0%1.8m/s
23:00✕0%1.7m/s
Fri, Mar 13
24:00✕0%1.4m/s
01:00✕5%1.2m/s
02:00✕5%2m/s
03:00✕5%2.2m/s
04:00✕5%2.3m/s
05:00✕4.2%2.6m/s
06:00✓4%3.5m/s
07:00✓41%3.8m/s
08:00✓33%3.5m/s
09:00✓35%4.1m/s
10:00✕48%5.4m/s
11:00✕28%6m/s
12:00✕24%5.8m/s
13:00✕28%5.7m/s
14:00✕29%5.9m/s
15:00✕3%5.7m/s
16:00✕3%6m/s
17:00✕3.6%5.4m/s
18:00✕3.8%4.5m/s
19:00✕0%3.8m/s
20:00✕0%2.7m/s
21:00✕4.3%2.4m/s
22:00✕3.3%2.4m/s
23:00✕3.9%2.4m/s
Sat, Mar 14
24:00✕3.2%2.2m/s
01:00✕3.3%2m/s
02:00✕3.2%2m/s
03:00✕3.2%2m/s
04:00✕3.2%2m/s
05:00✕3.2%1.9m/s
06:00✓3.2%1.9m/s
07:00✓3.4%1.6m/s
08:00✓4.5%1.5m/s
09:00✓0%1.7m/s
10:00✕0%1.8m/s
11:00✕0%2m/s
12:00✕0%1.5m/s
13:00✕0%1.1m/s
14:00✕0%0.57m/s
15:00✕0%0.91m/s
16:00✕0%1.2m/s
17:00✕0%1.6m/s
18:00✕0%1.8m/s
19:00✕0%1.9m/s
20:00✕0%2.1m/s
21:00✕0%2m/s
22:00✕0%1.9m/s
23:00✕0%1.9m/s
Sun, Mar 15
24:00✕0%2.3m/s
01:00✕0%2.7m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Thu, Mar 12 Sunrise 07:45 Sunset 19:35
03:00 ☾
13°C 16°C 16°C - 94% 0.24kPa
04:00 ☾
14°C 16°C 15°C - 100% 0.21kPa
05:00 ☾
14°C 16°C 15°C - 100% 0.13kPa
06:00 ☾
12°C 16°C 13°C - 100% 0.05kPa
07:00 ☾
7.1°C 15°C 8°C - 100% 0.06kPa
08:00
3.9°C 15°C 4.9°C - 100% 0.06kPa
09:00
2.2°C 14°C 3.6°C - 100% 0.07kPa
10:00
1.1°C 13°C 3.2°C - 100% 0.11kPa
11:00
-0.6°C 13°C 2.7°C - 35% 0.15kPa
12:00
-1.7°C 12°C 5.1°C - 3% 0.34kPa
13:00
-4.5°C 12°C 6°C - 0% 0.5kPa
14:00
-7.3°C 12°C 6.3°C - 0% 0.6kPa
15:00
-7.7°C 12°C 6.4°C - 0% 0.61kPa
16:00
-8.5°C 11°C 6.9°C - 0% 0.67kPa
17:00
-7.7°C 11°C 6.6°C - 0% 0.63kPa
18:00
-7.2°C 11°C 5.6°C - 0% 0.55kPa
19:00
-6.5°C 11°C 4.1°C - 5% 0.44kPa
20:00 ☾
-6.2°C 10°C 1.5°C - 0% 0.3kPa
21:00 ☾
-6°C 9.5°C 0.49°C - 0% 0.24kPa
22:00 ☾
-6.3°C 9.1°C 0.02°C - 0% 0.23kPa
23:00 ☾
-7.1°C 8.7°C -0.12°C - 0% 0.25kPa
Fri, Mar 13 Sunrise 07:44 Sunset 19:36
24:00 ☾
-8°C 8.2°C -0.11°C - 0% 0.27kPa
01:00 ☾
-8.8°C 7.7°C 0.03°C - 5% 0.3kPa
02:00 ☾
-8.3°C 7.2°C 0.14°C - 5% 0.29kPa
03:00 ☾
-7.1°C 6.7°C -0°C - 0% 0.25kPa
04:00 ☾
-6.4°C 6.3°C -0.3°C - 0% 0.22kPa
05:00 ☾
-6°C 6.2°C -0.68°C - 2% 0.19kPa
06:00 ☾
-5.6°C 6°C -0.59°C - 0% 0.18kPa
07:00 ☾
-6.2°C 6°C -0.68°C - 0% 0.2kPa
08:00
-6.2°C 5.9°C -0.92°C - 27% 0.19kPa
09:00
-5.6°C 5.6°C 1.1°C - 98% 0.26kPa
10:00
-5.4°C 5.6°C 3.6°C - 5% 0.38kPa
11:00
-4.6°C 5.6°C 5.9°C - 62% 0.49kPa
12:00
-4°C 5.6°C 8.3°C - 84% 0.64kPa
13:00
-3.5°C 5.6°C 10°C - 49% 0.79kPa
14:00
-2.9°C 5.6°C 12°C - 15% 0.93kPa
15:00
-2.9°C 6.1°C 14°C - 5% 1.1kPa
16:00
-2.9°C 6.8°C 14°C - 5% 1.1kPa
17:00
-1°C 7.4°C 14°C - 9% 1kPa
18:00
0.2°C 7.9°C 13°C - 3% 0.87kPa
19:00
0.4°C 8.1°C 11°C - 2% 0.64kPa
20:00 ☾
0.4°C 8.1°C 6.9°C - 99% 0.37kPa
21:00 ☾
0.2°C 7.9°C 5.9°C - 20% 0.31kPa
22:00 ☾
-0.3°C 7.7°C 5.4°C - 77% 0.3kPa
23:00 ☾
-0.4°C 7.5°C 5.1°C - 38% 0.29kPa
Sat, Mar 14 Sunrise 07:43 Sunset 19:37
24:00 ☾
-0.4°C 7.3°C 4.8°C - 94% 0.27kPa
01:00 ☾
-0.4°C 7.1°C 4.7°C - 73% 0.26kPa
02:00 ☾
-0.3°C 6.9°C 4.6°C - 96% 0.25kPa
03:00 ☾
-0.1°C 6.7°C 4.6°C - 100% 0.24kPa
04:00 ☾
0.1°C 6.6°C 4.6°C - 100% 0.23kPa
05:00 ☾
0.4°C 6.4°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.23kPa
06:00 ☾
0.4°C 6.3°C 4.6°C - 100% 0.22kPa
07:00 ☾
0.5°C 6.2°C 4.6°C - 97% 0.21kPa
08:00
0.5°C 6.1°C 4.6°C - 13% 0.22kPa
09:00
2.8°C 8.7°C 9.6°C - 9% 0.45kPa
10:00
4.4°C 11°C 15°C - 4% 0.83kPa
11:00
5.1°C 14°C 20°C - 0% 1.4kPa
12:00
5.5°C 14°C 18°C - 0% 1.1kPa
13:00
5.6°C 14°C 15°C - 0% 0.85kPa
14:00
5.4°C 14°C 13°C - 0% 0.64kPa
15:00
5.2°C 14°C 13°C - 0% 0.58kPa
16:00
5.1°C 14°C 12°C - 0% 0.52kPa
17:00
4.8°C 13°C 11°C - 0% 0.47kPa
18:00
5°C 13°C 11°C - 0% 0.42kPa
19:00
5.1°C 13°C 10°C - 0% 0.36kPa
20:00 ☾
5.2°C 12°C 9.7°C - 0% 0.31kPa
21:00 ☾
5.6°C 12°C 10°C - 33% 0.33kPa
22:00 ☾
5.9°C 12°C 10°C - 67% 0.34kPa
23:00 ☾
6.2°C 12°C 11°C - 100% 0.35kPa
Sun, Mar 15 Sunrise 07:41 Sunset 19:38
24:00 ☾
6.6°C 12°C 10°C - 88% 0.28kPa
01:00 ☾
6.9°C 11°C 9.7°C - 76% 0.21kPa
02:00 ☾
7.1°C 11°C 9.1°C - 63% 0.15kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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