Morning Frost Forecast for Brevard, Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge
Brevard is surrounded by Pisgah forest, where Looking Glass Rock, tumbling creeks, dense hardwoods, and numerous waterfalls shape intimate scenes.
Currently
Real-time conditionsUpcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
No opportunities in the next 14 days
See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.
Most common blockers (95-hour forecast)
- Frost Probability100% of hours
- Time Window86% of hours
- Wind Speed83% of hours
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Brevard.
Explore Morning Frost conditions across Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Brevard during the last 365 days.
Only 7 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
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95-hour requirements breakdown
When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.
Time America/New_York | Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m | Frost Probability ≥ 60.0% | Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jul 14 | |||
| 22:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.2m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| Wed, Jul 15 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.3m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.1m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.2m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 0% | 1.2m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 0% | 1.2m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 0% | 1.4m/s |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.87m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.24m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.31m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.33m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0.82m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.4m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.7m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.8m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.8m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.2m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.8m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.8m/s |
| Thu, Jul 16 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 0% | 2.1m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 0% | 2m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 0% | 2m/s |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.8m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.4m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.4m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.6m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.7m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.5m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.6m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.7m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2m/s |
| Fri, Jul 17 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.2m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.3m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.3m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 0% | 2.3m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 0% | 2.3m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 0% | 2.3m/s |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.8m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.1m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.5m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.7m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 0% | 3.4m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 0% | 3.6m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 0% | 3.4m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.9m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.8m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 0% | 3.8m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.9m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.3m/s |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2m/s |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2m/s |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.2m/s |
| Sat, Jul 18 | |||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.2m/s |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.3m/s |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 0% | 2.3m/s |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.8m/s |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.4m/s |
| 05:00 | ✓ | 0% | 0.9m/s |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 0% | 1.2m/s |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 08:00 | ✓ | 0% | 1.7m/s |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.7m/s |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.7m/s |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.7m/s |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.6m/s |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.4m/s |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.4m/s |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 17:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.6m/s |
| 18:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.5m/s |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 0% | 1.4m/s |
What does Frost Probability mean?
Inputs that drive the scoreThis derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.
| Time America/New_York | Dew Point °C | Surface Temperature °C | Temperature °C | Time Window | Total Cloud Coverage % | Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Jul 15
Sunrise 06:28
Sunset 20:45 | ||||||
| 22:00
☾
| 18°C | 20°C | 21°C | - | 0% | 0.34kPa |
| 23:00
☾
| 18°C | 20°C | 20°C | - | 0% | 0.26kPa |
| Thu, Jul 16
Sunrise 06:28
Sunset 20:45 | ||||||
| 24:00
☾
| 18°C | 20°C | 20°C | - | 0% | 0.28kPa |
| 01:00
☾
| 17°C | 20°C | 20°C | - | 0% | 0.29kPa |
| 02:00
☾
| 17°C | 20°C | 19°C | - | 0% | 0.29kPa |
| 03:00
☾
| 17°C | 20°C | 19°C | - | 0% | 0.29kPa |
| 04:00
☾
| 17°C | 20°C | 19°C | - | 1% | 0.29kPa |
| 05:00
☾
| 17°C | 20°C | 19°C | - | 3% | 0.27kPa |
| 06:00
☾
| 17°C | 20°C | 19°C | - | 1% | 0.25kPa |
| 07:00 | 17°C | 19°C | 19°C | - | 0% | 0.25kPa |
| 08:00 | 18°C | 19°C | 22°C | - | 0% | 0.48kPa |
| 09:00 | 18°C | 20°C | 25°C | - | 0% | 0.99kPa |
| 10:00 | 17°C | 20°C | 27°C | - | 0% | 1.6kPa |
| 11:00 | 16°C | 20°C | 29°C | - | 0% | 2.1kPa |
| 12:00 | 15°C | 20°C | 30°C | - | 0% | 2.6kPa |
| 13:00 | 14°C | 20°C | 31°C | - | 0% | 2.9kPa |
| 14:00 | 14°C | 21°C | 32°C | - | 0% | 3.1kPa |
| 15:00 | 13°C | 21°C | 32°C | - | 2% | 3.3kPa |
| 16:00 | 13°C | 21°C | 32°C | - | 20% | 3.3kPa |
| 17:00 | 14°C | 22°C | 32°C | - | 59% | 3.2kPa |
| 18:00 | 16°C | 22°C | 29°C | - | 83% | 2.1kPa |
| 19:00 | 18°C | 22°C | 26°C | - | 100% | 1.3kPa |
| 20:00
☾
| 17°C | 22°C | 25°C | - | 100% | 1.2kPa |
| 21:00
☾
| 16°C | 22°C | 25°C | - | 60% | 1.3kPa |
| 22:00
☾
| 16°C | 22°C | 24°C | - | 27% | 1.1kPa |
| 23:00
☾
| 16°C | 22°C | 22°C | - | 0% | 0.91kPa |
| Fri, Jul 17
Sunrise 06:29
Sunset 20:44 | ||||||
| 24:00
☾
| 16°C | 22°C | 22°C | - | 2% | 0.78kPa |
| 01:00
☾
| 16°C | 22°C | 22°C | - | 11% | 0.72kPa |
| 02:00
☾
| 17°C | 22°C | 21°C | - | 25% | 0.65kPa |
| 03:00
☾
| 17°C | 21°C | 21°C | - | 5% | 0.59kPa |
| 04:00
☾
| 16°C | 21°C | 21°C | - | 4% | 0.56kPa |
| 05:00
☾
| 16°C | 21°C | 20°C | - | 6% | 0.56kPa |
| 06:00
☾
| 16°C | 21°C | 20°C | - | 4% | 0.53kPa |
| 07:00 | 17°C | 21°C | 20°C | - | 2% | 0.45kPa |
| 08:00 | 19°C | 21°C | 22°C | - | 5% | 0.57kPa |
| 09:00 | 19°C | 21°C | 26°C | - | 9% | 1.1kPa |
| 10:00 | 19°C | 21°C | 27°C | - | 15% | 1.5kPa |
| 11:00 | 18°C | 21°C | 29°C | - | 6% | 1.8kPa |
| 12:00 | 17°C | 22°C | 30°C | - | 28% | 2.2kPa |
| 13:00 | 16°C | 22°C | 31°C | - | 45% | 2.8kPa |
| 14:00 | 15°C | 22°C | 32°C | - | 50% | 3kPa |
| 15:00 | 15°C | 22°C | 32°C | - | 84% | 3.1kPa |
| 16:00 | 16°C | 22°C | 31°C | - | 93% | 2.7kPa |
| 17:00 | 17°C | 23°C | 29°C | - | 70% | 2.2kPa |
| 18:00 | 17°C | 23°C | 29°C | - | 46% | 2kPa |
| 19:00 | 19°C | 23°C | 27°C | - | 99% | 1.5kPa |
| 20:00
☾
| 18°C | 23°C | 25°C | - | 100% | 1kPa |
| 21:00
☾
| 19°C | 23°C | 22°C | - | 100% | 0.55kPa |
| 22:00
☾
| 19°C | 23°C | 21°C | - | 100% | 0.39kPa |
| 23:00
☾
| 19°C | 22°C | 20°C | - | 100% | 0.26kPa |
| Sat, Jul 18
Sunrise 06:30
Sunset 20:44 | ||||||
| 24:00
☾
| 19°C | 22°C | 20°C | - | 100% | 0.27kPa |
| 01:00
☾
| 18°C | 22°C | 19°C | - | 100% | 0.14kPa |
| 02:00
☾
| 18°C | 22°C | 19°C | - | 100% | 0.11kPa |
| 03:00
☾
| 19°C | 23°C | 23°C | - | 67% | 0.6kPa |
| 04:00
☾
| 20°C | 25°C | 27°C | - | 33% | 1.4kPa |
| 05:00
☾
| 19°C | 26°C | 32°C | - | 0% | 2.5kPa |
| 06:00
☾
| 19°C | 26°C | 33°C | - | 33% | 2.7kPa |
| 07:00 | 19°C | 26°C | 33°C | - | 66% | 2.8kPa |
| 08:00 | 19°C | 27°C | 34°C | - | 100% | 3kPa |
| 09:00 | 20°C | 27°C | 32°C | - | 99% | 2.3kPa |
| 10:00 | 21°C | 27°C | 30°C | - | 99% | 1.7kPa |
| 11:00 | 21°C | 27°C | 28°C | - | 98% | 1.2kPa |
| 12:00 | 21°C | 27°C | 28°C | - | 66% | 1.2kPa |
| 13:00 | 21°C | 27°C | 28°C | - | 33% | 1.2kPa |
| 14:00 | 21°C | 27°C | 28°C | - | 1% | 1.2kPa |
| 15:00 | 21°C | 27°C | 27°C | - | 0% | 1kPa |
| 16:00 | 20°C | 26°C | 25°C | - | 0% | 0.87kPa |
| 17:00 | 19°C | 26°C | 24°C | - | 0% | 0.72kPa |
| 18:00 | 19°C | 26°C | 23°C | - | 0% | 0.65kPa |
| 19:00 | 19°C | 26°C | 23°C | - | 0% | 0.59kPa |
| 20:00
☾
| 19°C | 25°C | 22°C | - | 0% | 0.53kPa |
| 21:00
☾
| 18°C | 25°C | 22°C | - | 0% | 0.52kPa |
How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
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