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Rule Morning Frost

Blowing Rock - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Blowing Rock, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 97% failing
Time Window 83% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
41%
Soil Temperature5.2°C
Dew Point-5.3°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed3.4m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover8%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

  • Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
  • Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
  • Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
  • Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Fri, Mar 13
24:00✕3.3%1.1m/s
01:00✕3.5%0.75m/s
02:00✕3.5%0.52m/s
03:00✕2.9%0.85m/s
04:00✕3.3%1.4m/s
05:00✕3.9%2m/s
06:00✓3.1%2.3m/s
07:00✓32%2.7m/s
08:00✓30%2.9m/s
09:00✓41%3.4m/s
10:00✕31%3.7m/s
11:00✕39%3.2m/s
12:00✕39%2.9m/s
13:00✕31%3.2m/s
14:00✕26%4.5m/s
15:00✕26%4.5m/s
16:00✕26%4.8m/s
17:00✕32%5.3m/s
18:00✕35%5.1m/s
19:00✕42%3.6m/s
20:00✕46%3.4m/s
21:00✕41%4m/s
22:00✕44%5.3m/s
23:00✕44%5.5m/s
Sat, Mar 14
24:00✕28%5.3m/s
01:00✕31%5.5m/s
02:00✕17%5.2m/s
03:00✕17%4.5m/s
04:00✕19%3.8m/s
05:00✕11%3.1m/s
06:00✓13%2.5m/s
07:00✓13%2.2m/s
08:00✓13%1.9m/s
09:00✓24%2m/s
10:00✕28%2m/s
11:00✕34%1.8m/s
12:00✕37%1.5m/s
13:00✕3.3%0.92m/s
14:00✕3%1.7m/s
15:00✕2.5%2.9m/s
16:00✕0%3.8m/s
17:00✕0%4m/s
18:00✕0%3.9m/s
19:00✕0%3.8m/s
20:00✕0%3.2m/s
21:00✕0%3.1m/s
22:00✕0%2.9m/s
23:00✕0%3.2m/s
Sun, Mar 15
24:00✕0%3.4m/s
01:00✕0%3.3m/s
02:00✕2.9%3.5m/s
03:00✕2.5%3.2m/s
04:00✕1.4%3.1m/s
05:00✕1.7%3.1m/s
06:00✓1%2.9m/s
07:00✓1.2%2.7m/s
08:00✓1.2%2.8m/s
09:00✓1%3.2m/s
10:00✕1%3.5m/s
11:00✕1%3.5m/s
12:00✕1%3.9m/s
13:00✕1%3.6m/s
14:00✕1%3.9m/s
15:00✕0%3.4m/s
16:00✕0%2.8m/s
17:00✕0%2.3m/s
18:00✕0%2.5m/s
19:00✕0%2.8m/s
20:00✕0%3.1m/s
21:00✕0%3m/s
22:00✕0%3m/s
23:00✕0%3m/s
Mon, Mar 16
24:00✕0%3.3m/s
01:00✕0%3.5m/s
02:00✕0%3.8m/s
03:00✕0%4.2m/s
04:00✕0%4.5m/s
05:00✕0%4.9m/s
06:00✓0%6m/s
07:00✓0%7m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Fri, Mar 13 Sunrise 07:40 Sunset 19:32
09:00
-5.3°C 5.2°C -1.4°C - 8% 0.14kPa
10:00
-4.7°C 5.1°C 1°C - 96% 0.23kPa
11:00
-3.5°C 5.1°C 3.4°C - 50% 0.31kPa
12:00
-2.2°C 5.1°C 5.7°C - 51% 0.4kPa
13:00
-1.5°C 5.1°C 9°C - 100% 0.6kPa
14:00
-1.5°C 5.1°C 11°C - 100% 0.75kPa
15:00
-0.2°C 5.1°C 12°C - 100% 0.78kPa
16:00
0.8°C 5.1°C 12°C - 100% 0.73kPa
17:00
1.8°C 5.1°C 11°C - 65% 0.59kPa
18:00
0.9°C 5.1°C 9.1°C - 52% 0.51kPa
19:00
0.8°C 5.2°C 6.7°C - 20% 0.33kPa
20:00 ☾
0.4°C 5.2°C 4.4°C - 5% 0.21kPa
21:00 ☾
0.5°C 5.1°C 4°C - 0% 0.18kPa
22:00 ☾
0.3°C 5.1°C 5.3°C - 0% 0.27kPa
23:00 ☾
0.6°C 5.1°C 5°C - 5% 0.24kPa
Sat, Mar 14 Sunrise 07:39 Sunset 19:33
24:00 ☾
1.2°C 5.1°C 4.8°C - 46% 0.19kPa
01:00 ☾
1.7°C 5.1°C 4.8°C - 30% 0.17kPa
02:00 ☾
2°C 5.1°C 4.6°C - 76% 0.15kPa
03:00 ☾
2.1°C 5°C 4.3°C - 65% 0.12kPa
04:00 ☾
2.2°C 5°C 3.8°C - 59% 0.09kPa
05:00 ☾
2.3°C 4.9°C 3.2°C - 85% 0.05kPa
06:00 ☾
2°C 4.9°C 2.5°C - 100% 0.02kPa
07:00 ☾
1.3°C 4.8°C 1.6°C - 100% 0.01kPa
08:00
1.2°C 4.6°C 1.4°C - 100% 0.01kPa
09:00
2.7°C 4.6°C 3.8°C - 32% 0.06kPa
10:00
3.5°C 4.7°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.19kPa
11:00
3.6°C 5.1°C 9.3°C - 64% 0.38kPa
12:00
3.8°C 5.7°C 12°C - 82% 0.56kPa
13:00
4.6°C 6.5°C 14°C - 99% 0.75kPa
14:00
4.7°C 7.3°C 15°C - 72% 0.84kPa
15:00
4.9°C 8°C 15°C - 100% 0.86kPa
16:00
4.7°C 8.5°C 14°C - 100% 0.76kPa
17:00
4.8°C 8.9°C 13°C - 96% 0.68kPa
18:00
5.7°C 9.2°C 12°C - 39% 0.52kPa
19:00
5.7°C 9.2°C 10°C - 21% 0.32kPa
20:00 ☾
5.1°C 9.1°C 7.8°C - 5% 0.18kPa
21:00 ☾
5.1°C 8.9°C 7.2°C - 2% 0.14kPa
22:00 ☾
5°C 8.7°C 6.7°C - 0% 0.11kPa
23:00 ☾
4.8°C 8.5°C 6.4°C - 0% 0.1kPa
Sun, Mar 15 Sunrise 07:37 Sunset 19:34
24:00 ☾
4.7°C 8.3°C 6.2°C - 0% 0.1kPa
01:00 ☾
4.6°C 8.1°C 5.8°C - 0% 0.08kPa
02:00 ☾
4.4°C 7.9°C 5.5°C - 0% 0.06kPa
03:00 ☾
4.3°C 7.7°C 5°C - 6% 0.04kPa
04:00 ☾
4°C 7.5°C 4.4°C - 46% 0.02kPa
05:00 ☾
3.9°C 7.2°C 4.2°C - 36% 0.01kPa
06:00 ☾
3.8°C 7°C 4°C - 100% 0.01kPa
07:00 ☾
3.8°C 6.9°C 3.9°C - 100% 0.01kPa
08:00
4.3°C 6.7°C 4.4°C - 81% 0.01kPa
09:00
5.5°C 6.7°C 6.2°C - 100% 0.04kPa
10:00
5.9°C 6.7°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.05kPa
11:00
6.2°C 6.7°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.05kPa
12:00
6.2°C 6.8°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.05kPa
13:00
6.1°C 6.9°C 6.7°C - 100% 0.04kPa
14:00
6.5°C 7°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.05kPa
15:00
9°C 8.5°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.04kPa
16:00
12°C 10°C 12°C - 100% 0.03kPa
17:00
14°C 12°C 14°C - 100% 0.01kPa
18:00
14°C 12°C 14°C - 100% 0.02kPa
19:00
14°C 12°C 14°C - 100% 0.02kPa
20:00 ☾
14°C 12°C 14°C - 100% 0.02kPa
21:00 ☾
14°C 12°C 14°C - 100% 0.03kPa
22:00 ☾
15°C 12°C 15°C - 100% 0.03kPa
23:00 ☾
15°C 12°C 15°C - 100% 0.03kPa
Mon, Mar 16 Sunrise 07:36 Sunset 19:34
24:00 ☾
15°C 13°C 15°C - 100% 0.04kPa
01:00 ☾
14°C 13°C 15°C - 100% 0.06kPa
02:00 ☾
14°C 13°C 15°C - 100% 0.07kPa
03:00 ☾
14°C 13°C 15°C - 100% 0.08kPa
04:00 ☾
14°C 13°C 15°C - 100% 0.09kPa
05:00 ☾
15°C 13°C 15°C - 100% 0.09kPa
06:00 ☾
15°C 13°C 16°C - 100% 0.13kPa
07:00 ☾
15°C 14°C 16°C - 100% 0.17kPa
08:00
15°C 14°C 17°C - 100% 0.22kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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