More Morning Frost in Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Banner Elk, Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Banner Elk, North Carolina, United States

Banner Elk sits between Beech Mountain and Grandfather Mountain, with high-elevation village scenes and broad views across autumn-coloured ridges.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature20.9°C

Dew Point17.4°C (high dew point)

Wind Speed2.0m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover10%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (73-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Time Window88% of hours
Wind Speed63% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Banner Elk.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Banner Elk during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 73% average confidence

Only 3 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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73-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 73-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 73 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/New_York	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Aug 18
01:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
02:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
03:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
04:00	✕	0%	2m/s
05:00	✕	0%	2m/s
06:00	✓	0%	2m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.9m/s
08:00	✓	0%	1.7m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
14:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
15:00	✕	0%	4m/s
16:00	✕	0%	4.3m/s
17:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
18:00	✕	0%	3m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
21:00	✕	0%	2m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
Wed, Aug 19
24:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1m/s
02:00	✕	0%	0.87m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
05:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.2m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.1m/s
08:00	✓	0%	1.1m/s
09:00	✕	0%	0.94m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
14:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2.9m/s
16:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
21:00	✕	0%	0.66m/s
22:00	✕	0%	0.7m/s
23:00	✕	0%	0.68m/s
Thu, Aug 20
24:00	✕	0%	0.44m/s
01:00	✕	0%	0.5m/s
02:00	✕	0%	0.64m/s
03:00	✕	0%	0.58m/s
04:00	✕	0%	0.84m/s
05:00	✕	0%	0.48m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.7m/s
07:00	✓	0%	2m/s
08:00	✓	0%	1.5m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
20:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1m/s
Fri, Aug 21
24:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/New_York	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Tue, Aug 18 Sunrise 06:48 Sunset 20:13
04:00 ☾	17°C	21°C	18°C	-	10%	0.04kPa
05:00 ☾	17°C	21°C	17°C	-	93%	0.02kPa
06:00 ☾	17°C	21°C	17°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
07:00	18°C	21°C	18°C	-	99%	0.01kPa
08:00	19°C	20°C	19°C	-	98%	0.02kPa
09:00	19°C	20°C	20°C	-	99%	0.11kPa
10:00	19°C	20°C	19°C	-	100%	0.09kPa
11:00	19°C	20°C	20°C	-	93%	0.18kPa
12:00	18°C	20°C	22°C	-	18%	0.62kPa
13:00	16°C	21°C	26°C	-	2%	1.4kPa
14:00	15°C	21°C	27°C	-	1%	1.8kPa
15:00	15°C	21°C	27°C	-	5%	1.9kPa
16:00	16°C	21°C	27°C	-	3%	1.8kPa
17:00	16°C	21°C	26°C	-	28%	1.5kPa
18:00	17°C	21°C	24°C	-	0%	1.1kPa
19:00	18°C	21°C	23°C	-	0%	0.8kPa
20:00 ☾	17°C	21°C	20°C	-	0%	0.38kPa
21:00 ☾	17°C	21°C	19°C	-	0%	0.25kPa
22:00 ☾	17°C	21°C	18°C	-	0%	0.18kPa
23:00 ☾	16°C	21°C	17°C	-	4%	0.14kPa
Wed, Aug 19 Sunrise 06:49 Sunset 20:12
24:00 ☾	16°C	21°C	17°C	-	0%	0.12kPa
01:00 ☾	16°C	21°C	16°C	-	0%	0.11kPa
02:00 ☾	15°C	20°C	16°C	-	3%	0.13kPa
03:00 ☾	15°C	20°C	16°C	-	5%	0.16kPa
04:00 ☾	14°C	20°C	16°C	-	5%	0.17kPa
05:00 ☾	14°C	20°C	16°C	-	6%	0.16kPa
06:00 ☾	14°C	20°C	15°C	-	93%	0.16kPa
07:00	14°C	20°C	15°C	-	5%	0.16kPa
08:00	15°C	20°C	17°C	-	5%	0.28kPa
09:00	15°C	20°C	21°C	-	0%	0.73kPa
10:00	14°C	20°C	23°C	-	0%	1.3kPa
11:00	13°C	20°C	25°C	-	0%	1.8kPa
12:00	12°C	20°C	26°C	-	0%	2.1kPa
13:00	11°C	20°C	27°C	-	3%	2.3kPa
14:00	11°C	20°C	28°C	-	4%	2.5kPa
15:00	11°C	20°C	29°C	-	5%	2.6kPa
16:00	11°C	21°C	28°C	-	0%	2.5kPa
17:00	12°C	21°C	28°C	-	0%	2.3kPa
18:00	14°C	21°C	27°C	-	0%	1.9kPa
19:00	17°C	21°C	24°C	-	0%	1kPa
20:00 ☾	16°C	21°C	20°C	-	4%	0.6kPa
21:00 ☾	14°C	21°C	19°C	-	5%	0.56kPa
22:00 ☾	14°C	21°C	19°C	-	5%	0.59kPa
23:00 ☾	13°C	21°C	19°C	-	5%	0.64kPa
Thu, Aug 20 Sunrise 06:49 Sunset 20:11
24:00 ☾	13°C	21°C	19°C	-	18%	0.68kPa
01:00 ☾	12°C	21°C	19°C	-	0%	0.74kPa
02:00 ☾	12°C	20°C	19°C	-	50%	0.8kPa
03:00 ☾	12°C	20°C	20°C	-	100%	0.91kPa
04:00 ☾	12°C	20°C	19°C	-	88%	0.84kPa
05:00 ☾	12°C	20°C	19°C	-	100%	0.77kPa
06:00 ☾	12°C	20°C	19°C	-	69%	0.79kPa
07:00	12°C	20°C	18°C	-	20%	0.66kPa
08:00	14°C	20°C	19°C	-	57%	0.55kPa
09:00	15°C	20°C	20°C	-	57%	0.7kPa
10:00	16°C	21°C	22°C	-	57%	0.88kPa
11:00	17°C	21°C	24°C	-	57%	1.1kPa
12:00	17°C	21°C	23°C	-	39%	0.84kPa
13:00	18°C	21°C	22°C	-	21%	0.61kPa
14:00	18°C	21°C	21°C	-	4%	0.41kPa
15:00	17°C	21°C	20°C	-	4%	0.34kPa
16:00	17°C	21°C	19°C	-	4%	0.28kPa
17:00	16°C	21°C	18°C	-	5%	0.22kPa
18:00	16°C	21°C	18°C	-	27%	0.2kPa
19:00	16°C	21°C	18°C	-	50%	0.17kPa
20:00 ☾	16°C	20°C	18°C	-	73%	0.15kPa
21:00 ☾	16°C	20°C	17°C	-	80%	0.14kPa
22:00 ☾	16°C	20°C	17°C	-	87%	0.12kPa
23:00 ☾	16°C	20°C	17°C	-	95%	0.11kPa
Fri, Aug 21 Sunrise 06:50 Sunset 20:09
24:00 ☾	17°C	20°C	18°C	-	96%	0.11kPa
01:00 ☾	17°C	20°C	18°C	-	98%	0.12kPa
02:00 ☾	18°C	20°C	18°C	-	100%	0.12kPa
03:00 ☾	18°C	20°C	21°C	-	100%	0.37kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 18, 2026, 7:24 AM UTC

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