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No opportunity windows are predicted in the next 10 days. Conditions can change quickly, so check back for updates.

More Morning Frost in Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

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Rule Morning Frost

Asheville - Morning Frost - Smoky Mountains & Blue Ridge

Q: What conditions does Morning Frost look for?

Time Window: Sunrise -45m to +90m. Frost Probability: ≥ 60.0%. Wind Speed: ≤ 1.5m/s

Asheville, North Carolina, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

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Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)

Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)

Frost Probability 100% failing

Time Window 88% failing

Wind Speed 33% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature12.9°C

Dew Point0.6°C (low dew point)

Wind Speed0.9m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover91%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first hard frost events that enhance the Smokies' autumn landscapes with crystalline textures. We track overnight temperatures, humidity, and elevation to identify when frost will coat mountain meadows, overlooks, and exposed vegetation with sparkling ice crystals at dawn.

The Smokies' elevation range means frost arrives at different times depending on altitude. Clingmans Dome and high overlooks can see frost as early as late September, while valleys may not freeze until late October or November. This staggered frost timing extends the season for frost photography and creates interesting elevation-based opportunities.

What makes Smoky Mountains frost photography exceptional:

Mountain meadows - High-elevation grassy areas like Andrews Bald develop heavy frost coverage on clear nights
Clingmans Dome conditions - At 6,643 feet, the highest point often experiences hoar frost creating alien landscapes
Frozen waterfalls - Later season frost leads to ice formations on the Smokies' countless waterfalls
Foliage combination - Early season frost can coincide with peak color, coating colorful leaves with ice crystals

Best frost photography requires clear, calm nights with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s Fahrenheit. High elevation locations experience frost most reliably, while valley locations need colder conditions. Arrive before dawn to catch frost plus first light—frost melts quickly after sunrise. Classic locations include Clingmans Dome observation tower, Grassy patches along Appalachian Trail, and roadside overlooks above 5,000 feet elevation.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 95 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/New_York	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Mon, Apr 20
15:00	✕	0%	7.3m/s
16:00	✕	0%	7.3m/s
17:00	✕	0%	6.7m/s
18:00	✕	0%	5.3m/s
19:00	✕	0%	4.3m/s
20:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
Tue, Apr 21
24:00	✕	0%	0.95m/s
01:00	✕	0%	0.92m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
04:00	✕	0%	0.91m/s
05:00	✕	0%	0.58m/s
06:00	✓	0%	0.42m/s
07:00	✓	0%	0.29m/s
08:00	✓	0%	0.35m/s
09:00	✕	0%	0.63m/s
10:00	✕	0%	0.85m/s
11:00	✕	0%	0.71m/s
12:00	✕	0%	0.85m/s
13:00	✕	0%	0.58m/s
14:00	✕	0%	0.96m/s
15:00	✕	0%	0.91m/s
16:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
18:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
19:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
22:00	✕	0%	0.86m/s
23:00	✕	0%	0.45m/s
Wed, Apr 22
24:00	✕	0%	0.26m/s
01:00	✕	0%	0.45m/s
02:00	✕	0%	0.51m/s
03:00	✕	0%	0.99m/s
04:00	✕	0%	0.76m/s
05:00	✕	0%	0.49m/s
06:00	✓	0%	0.74m/s
07:00	✓	0%	0.82m/s
08:00	✓	0%	0.97m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
12:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
13:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
14:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
15:00	✕	0%	4m/s
16:00	✕	0%	4.3m/s
17:00	✕	0%	4.8m/s
18:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
19:00	✕	0%	4.6m/s
20:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
21:00	✕	0%	0.98m/s
22:00	✕	0%	0.93m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
Thu, Apr 23
24:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
05:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.4m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.3m/s
08:00	✓	0%	1m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
12:00	✕	0%	0.93m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1m/s
15:00	✕	0%	2m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
Fri, Apr 24
24:00	✕	0%	0.97m/s
01:00	✕	0%	0.84m/s
02:00	✕	0%	0.71m/s
03:00	✕	0%	0.77m/s
04:00	✕	0%	0.83m/s
05:00	✕	0%	0.89m/s
06:00	✓	0%	0.78m/s
07:00	✓	0%	0.67m/s
08:00	✓	0%	0.56m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/New_York	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Tue, Apr 21 Sunrise 06:50 Sunset 20:08
15:00	0.6°C	13°C	22°C	-	91%	2kPa
16:00	1.4°C	13°C	22°C	-	100%	2kPa
17:00	1.9°C	14°C	21°C	-	79%	1.8kPa
18:00	2.9°C	14°C	20°C	-	84%	1.5kPa
19:00	4.4°C	14°C	17°C	-	100%	1.1kPa
20:00 ☾	4.2°C	14°C	13°C	-	100%	0.64kPa
21:00 ☾	3.7°C	14°C	11°C	-	100%	0.5kPa
22:00 ☾	3.7°C	14°C	9.8°C	-	100%	0.42kPa
23:00 ☾	3.8°C	14°C	9.3°C	-	100%	0.37kPa
Wed, Apr 22 Sunrise 06:48 Sunset 20:09
24:00 ☾	3.7°C	13°C	9°C	-	100%	0.35kPa
01:00 ☾	3.5°C	13°C	8.8°C	-	100%	0.35kPa
02:00 ☾	3.5°C	13°C	8.7°C	-	100%	0.34kPa
03:00 ☾	3.5°C	13°C	8.5°C	-	100%	0.33kPa
04:00 ☾	3.6°C	12°C	8°C	-	6%	0.28kPa
05:00 ☾	3.6°C	12°C	7.3°C	-	7%	0.23kPa
06:00 ☾	3.6°C	12°C	7.1°C	-	13%	0.22kPa
07:00	3.6°C	12°C	7°C	-	5%	0.21kPa
08:00	4.5°C	11°C	10°C	-	5%	0.39kPa
09:00	4.9°C	12°C	14°C	-	5%	0.73kPa
10:00	5.2°C	12°C	17°C	-	5%	1.1kPa
11:00	4.5°C	12°C	20°C	-	14%	1.5kPa
12:00	2.4°C	13°C	22°C	-	30%	1.9kPa
13:00	1.4°C	13°C	23°C	-	4%	2.1kPa
14:00	1.6°C	14°C	24°C	-	5%	2.2kPa
15:00	1.7°C	14°C	24°C	-	17%	2.3kPa
16:00	1.9°C	15°C	24°C	-	71%	2.3kPa
17:00	2.9°C	15°C	23°C	-	70%	2.1kPa
18:00	5°C	16°C	22°C	-	60%	1.7kPa
19:00	5.7°C	16°C	19°C	-	15%	1.3kPa
20:00 ☾	5.9°C	16°C	16°C	-	5%	0.89kPa
21:00 ☾	5.6°C	16°C	13°C	-	20%	0.56kPa
22:00 ☾	5.5°C	15°C	12°C	-	13%	0.47kPa
23:00 ☾	5.4°C	15°C	11°C	-	5%	0.41kPa
Thu, Apr 23 Sunrise 06:47 Sunset 20:09
24:00 ☾	5.3°C	15°C	10°C	-	5%	0.34kPa
01:00 ☾	5.1°C	15°C	9.5°C	-	5%	0.31kPa
02:00 ☾	5.1°C	14°C	9.1°C	-	4%	0.28kPa
03:00 ☾	5.1°C	14°C	8.8°C	-	2%	0.26kPa
04:00 ☾	5.2°C	14°C	8.6°C	-	0%	0.23kPa
05:00 ☾	5.2°C	14°C	8.4°C	-	0%	0.21kPa
06:00 ☾	5.3°C	13°C	8.1°C	-	0%	0.19kPa
07:00	5.4°C	13°C	8°C	-	0%	0.18kPa
08:00	6.2°C	13°C	11°C	-	0%	0.36kPa
09:00	6.8°C	13°C	15°C	-	4%	0.72kPa
10:00	7.2°C	13°C	19°C	-	0%	1.1kPa
11:00	6.6°C	14°C	21°C	-	1%	1.5kPa
12:00	6.1°C	14°C	23°C	-	7%	1.8kPa
13:00	5.8°C	15°C	24°C	-	23%	2.1kPa
14:00	5.4°C	15°C	26°C	-	83%	2.4kPa
15:00	4.9°C	16°C	24°C	-	99%	2.1kPa
16:00	5.7°C	16°C	23°C	-	100%	1.9kPa
17:00	7.3°C	16°C	22°C	-	92%	1.6kPa
18:00	7.8°C	16°C	21°C	-	48%	1.5kPa
19:00	9.3°C	16°C	20°C	-	81%	1.2kPa
20:00 ☾	8.5°C	17°C	17°C	-	100%	0.89kPa
21:00 ☾	8.2°C	16°C	15°C	-	72%	0.63kPa
22:00 ☾	7.7°C	16°C	13°C	-	43%	0.42kPa
23:00 ☾	6.9°C	15°C	10°C	-	15%	0.26kPa
Fri, Apr 24 Sunrise 06:46 Sunset 20:10
24:00 ☾	7.1°C	15°C	11°C	-	12%	0.31kPa
01:00 ☾	7.3°C	15°C	12°C	-	8%	0.37kPa
02:00 ☾	7.5°C	15°C	13°C	-	5%	0.43kPa
03:00 ☾	8.1°C	15°C	16°C	-	9%	0.77kPa
04:00 ☾	7.9°C	15°C	20°C	-	13%	1.2kPa
05:00 ☾	6.7°C	15°C	23°C	-	17%	1.9kPa
06:00 ☾	7.5°C	16°C	23°C	-	41%	1.7kPa
07:00	8.1°C	16°C	22°C	-	66%	1.5kPa
08:00	8.6°C	16°C	21°C	-	90%	1.3kPa
09:00	8.5°C	16°C	21°C	-	81%	1.4kPa
10:00	8.3°C	17°C	21°C	-	71%	1.4kPa
11:00	8.1°C	17°C	21°C	-	62%	1.4kPa
12:00	8.7°C	17°C	20°C	-	65%	1.1kPa
13:00	8.9°C	17°C	18°C	-	68%	0.9kPa
14:00	8.9°C	17°C	16°C	-	71%	0.69kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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