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Rule Morning Frost

Stowe - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Stowe, Vermont, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 53% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature16.9°C
Dew Point15.7°C (high dew point)
Wind Speed1.4m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover38%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Jul 7
09:000%2.2m/s
10:000%2.3m/s
11:000%2.2m/s
12:000%2.3m/s
13:000%2.7m/s
14:000%2.7m/s
15:000%2.1m/s
16:000%2.1m/s
17:000%2m/s
18:000%2.4m/s
19:000%2.3m/s
20:000%2.1m/s
21:000%2m/s
22:000%2.1m/s
23:000%1.9m/s
Wed, Jul 8
24:000%1.9m/s
01:000%1.6m/s
02:000%1.3m/s
03:000%1.2m/s
04:000%1.2m/s
05:000%1.6m/s
06:000%1m/s
07:000%0.77m/s
08:000%1.2m/s
09:000%1.1m/s
10:000%1.4m/s
11:000%1.8m/s
12:000%1.8m/s
13:000%2.7m/s
14:000%3.6m/s
15:000%3.2m/s
16:000%3m/s
17:000%2.4m/s
18:000%1.5m/s
19:000%1.1m/s
20:000%0.95m/s
21:000%0.56m/s
22:000%0.77m/s
23:000%1.9m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%1.8m/s
01:000%1.4m/s
02:000%1.3m/s
03:000%0.83m/s
04:000%1m/s
05:000%1.5m/s
06:000%1.5m/s
07:000%1.1m/s
08:000%1.1m/s
09:000%1.4m/s
10:000%1.9m/s
11:000%2.2m/s
12:000%2.6m/s
13:000%3.1m/s
14:000%3m/s
15:000%3.9m/s
16:000%2.3m/s
17:000%2.6m/s
18:000%2.8m/s
19:000%2.7m/s
20:000%1.9m/s
21:000%1.6m/s
22:000%1.5m/s
23:000%0.65m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%0.37m/s
01:000%0.67m/s
02:000%0.82m/s
03:000%1m/s
04:000%1.1m/s
05:000%1.3m/s
06:000%1.3m/s
07:000%1m/s
08:000%1.2m/s
09:000%1.5m/s
10:000%1.6m/s
11:000%1.8m/s
12:000%1.8m/s
13:000%1.9m/s
14:000%2.4m/s
15:000%2m/s
16:000%1.6m/s
17:000%1.2m/s
18:000%1.3m/s
19:000%1.4m/s
20:000%1.5m/s
21:000%1.4m/s
22:000%1.4m/s
23:000%1.4m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%1.5m/s
01:000%1.6m/s
02:000%1.8m/s
03:000%2.3m/s
04:000%2.8m/s
05:000%3.3m/s
06:000%3.3m/s
07:000%3.3m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 05:14 Sunset 20:36
10:00
16°C 17°C 23°C - 38% 1.1kPa
11:00
16°C 17°C 23°C - 19% 1kPa
12:00
16°C 17°C 25°C - 21% 1.4kPa
13:00
15°C 17°C 26°C - 80% 1.5kPa
14:00
15°C 17°C 26°C - 62% 1.7kPa
15:00
14°C 18°C 27°C - 100% 1.9kPa
16:00
14°C 18°C 26°C - 100% 1.8kPa
17:00
15°C 18°C 26°C - 34% 1.6kPa
18:00
16°C 18°C 25°C - 61% 1.5kPa
19:00
19°C 18°C 24°C - 18% 0.8kPa
20:00
17°C 18°C 21°C - 100% 0.45kPa
21:00
16°C 18°C 19°C - 100% 0.32kPa
22:00
16°C 18°C 18°C - 98% 0.28kPa
23:00
16°C 18°C 18°C - 100% 0.27kPa
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 05:15 Sunset 20:36
24:00
15°C 18°C 17°C - 95% 0.24kPa
01:00
15°C 18°C 17°C - 74% 0.22kPa
02:00
14°C 18°C 16°C - 100% 0.22kPa
03:00
14°C 18°C 16°C - 19% 0.21kPa
04:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 3% 0.18kPa
05:00
15°C 17°C 16°C - 0% 0.14kPa
06:00
15°C 17°C 17°C - 5% 0.16kPa
07:00
16°C 17°C 19°C - 5% 0.37kPa
08:00
17°C 17°C 22°C - 5% 0.68kPa
09:00
17°C 17°C 23°C - 0% 0.98kPa
10:00
16°C 17°C 25°C - 6% 1.3kPa
11:00
16°C 18°C 26°C - 47% 1.5kPa
12:00
16°C 18°C 27°C - 5% 1.7kPa
13:00
16°C 18°C 27°C - 8% 1.9kPa
14:00
16°C 18°C 28°C - 57% 2kPa
15:00
19°C 18°C 25°C - 100% 1kPa
16:00
19°C 18°C 21°C - 25% 0.3kPa
17:00
18°C 19°C 24°C - 96% 0.87kPa
18:00
19°C 19°C 22°C - 74% 0.41kPa
19:00
20°C 19°C 20°C - 61% 0.13kPa
20:00
18°C 19°C 19°C - 100% 0.07kPa
21:00
18°C 18°C 18°C - 100% 0.02kPa
22:00
17°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.04kPa
23:00
17°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.06kPa
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 05:16 Sunset 20:35
24:00
16°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.09kPa
01:00
16°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.11kPa
02:00
16°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.11kPa
03:00
16°C 18°C 17°C - 99% 0.06kPa
04:00
17°C 18°C 17°C - 99% 0.04kPa
05:00
17°C 18°C 17°C - 80% 0.03kPa
06:00
17°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.02kPa
07:00
17°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.03kPa
08:00
18°C 17°C 18°C - 93% 0.06kPa
09:00
18°C 17°C 18°C - 100% 0.07kPa
10:00
18°C 17°C 18°C - 100% 0.05kPa
11:00
18°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.11kPa
12:00
18°C 17°C 20°C - 100% 0.26kPa
13:00
17°C 17°C 21°C - 100% 0.57kPa
14:00
16°C 17°C 23°C - 100% 1kPa
15:00
16°C 18°C 20°C - 67% 0.62kPa
16:00
15°C 18°C 18°C - 33% 0.32kPa
17:00
15°C 18°C 15°C - 0% 0.09kPa
18:00
14°C 18°C 15°C - 0% 0.08kPa
19:00
14°C 18°C 14°C - 0% 0.08kPa
20:00
13°C 17°C 14°C - 0% 0.07kPa
21:00
13°C 17°C 14°C - 6% 0.07kPa
22:00
13°C 17°C 14°C - 12% 0.08kPa
23:00
14°C 17°C 14°C - 18% 0.08kPa
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 05:17 Sunset 20:34
24:00
14°C 17°C 15°C - 45% 0.13kPa
01:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 73% 0.18kPa
02:00
15°C 17°C 17°C - 100% 0.23kPa
03:00
13°C 17°C 19°C - 83% 0.61kPa
04:00
11°C 17°C 21°C - 65% 1.1kPa
05:00
7.9°C 17°C 23°C - 48% 1.7kPa
06:00
7.5°C 17°C 23°C - 65% 1.8kPa
07:00
7.1°C 17°C 24°C - 82% 1.9kPa
08:00
6.7°C 17°C 24°C - 99% 2.1kPa
09:00
7.3°C 17°C 24°C - 66% 2kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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