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Rule Morning Frost

Stowe - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Stowe, Vermont, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 61% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9.3°C
Dew Point6.1°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed4.0m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, May 24
24:000%2.1m/s
01:000%2.2m/s
02:000%2.2m/s
03:000%2m/s
04:000%2.3m/s
05:000%2.1m/s
06:000%2.7m/s
07:000%3.5m/s
08:000%3.7m/s
09:000%4m/s
10:000%4.4m/s
11:000%4.5m/s
12:000%5m/s
13:000%4.8m/s
14:000%4.7m/s
15:000%4.7m/s
16:000%4.6m/s
17:000%4.5m/s
18:000%4.5m/s
19:001.4%4m/s
20:001.4%3.6m/s
21:001.4%3.6m/s
22:001.7%3.6m/s
23:001.4%3.6m/s
Mon, May 25
24:001%3.5m/s
01:001%3m/s
02:001%3.1m/s
03:001%2.9m/s
04:001%2.8m/s
05:001.2%2.6m/s
06:001.2%2.3m/s
07:001.4%1.6m/s
08:001.4%1.6m/s
09:001.4%1.1m/s
10:001.4%1.5m/s
11:001.4%1.3m/s
12:001.4%1.1m/s
13:001.4%1.2m/s
14:001.8%1.2m/s
15:002.1%1.5m/s
16:002.1%1.6m/s
17:002.1%1.5m/s
18:000%1.4m/s
19:000%1m/s
20:000%0.91m/s
21:000%0.89m/s
22:000%0.33m/s
23:000%0.46m/s
Tue, May 26
24:000%1.1m/s
01:000%1.4m/s
02:000%1.4m/s
03:000%1.5m/s
04:000%1.7m/s
05:000%1.4m/s
06:000%1.4m/s
07:000%1.2m/s
08:000%1.4m/s
09:000%1.7m/s
10:000%1.7m/s
11:000%1.6m/s
12:000%2.4m/s
13:000%3.2m/s
14:000%3.3m/s
15:000%3.4m/s
16:000%3.6m/s
17:000%3.8m/s
18:000%3m/s
19:000%2.3m/s
20:000%1.5m/s
21:000%1.4m/s
22:000%1.2m/s
23:000%1.1m/s
Wed, May 27
24:000%1.1m/s
01:000%1.2m/s
02:000%1.2m/s
03:000%1.6m/s
04:000%2m/s
05:000%2.4m/s
06:000%3.1m/s
07:000%3.7m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, May 24 Sunrise 05:14 Sunset 20:20
09:00
6.1°C 9.3°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.04kPa
10:00
5.9°C 9.2°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.03kPa
11:00
5.5°C 9°C 6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
12:00
5°C 8.9°C 5.5°C - 100% 0.03kPa
13:00
4.2°C 8.8°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.04kPa
14:00
3.7°C 8.6°C 4.6°C - 100% 0.05kPa
15:00
3.6°C 8.5°C 4.4°C - 100% 0.05kPa
16:00
3.6°C 8.3°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.05kPa
17:00
3.9°C 8.2°C 5.4°C - 100% 0.09kPa
18:00
3.8°C 8.1°C 5.2°C - 100% 0.09kPa
19:00
3.6°C 8°C 5.2°C - 100% 0.09kPa
20:00
3.7°C 7.9°C 5.2°C - 100% 0.09kPa
21:00
3.9°C 7.7°C 5.6°C - 100% 0.1kPa
22:00
4.3°C 7.7°C 6.1°C - 100% 0.11kPa
23:00
5°C 7.6°C 6.2°C - 100% 0.08kPa
Mon, May 25 Sunrise 05:14 Sunset 20:21
24:00
5.4°C 7.6°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.05kPa
01:00
5.7°C 7.5°C 6.3°C - 100% 0.04kPa
02:00
6°C 7.5°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.02kPa
03:00
6.2°C 7.4°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.01kPa
04:00
6.4°C 7.4°C 6.5°C - 100% 0.01kPa
05:00
6.4°C 7.3°C 6.5°C - 100% 0.01kPa
06:00
6.6°C 7.3°C 6.7°C - 100% 0kPa
07:00
6.8°C 7.3°C 6.9°C - 100% 0kPa
08:00
6.8°C 7.3°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.01kPa
09:00
6.9°C 7.3°C 7°C - 100% 0.01kPa
10:00
7.2°C 7.2°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
11:00
8.2°C 7.3°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
12:00
9.1°C 7.3°C 9.7°C - 100% 0.05kPa
13:00
9.9°C 7.4°C 11°C - 100% 0.06kPa
14:00
11°C 7.5°C 12°C - 100% 0.09kPa
15:00
11°C 7.7°C 12°C - 100% 0.13kPa
16:00
11°C 7.9°C 13°C - 100% 0.15kPa
17:00
11°C 8°C 13°C - 100% 0.16kPa
18:00
11°C 8.1°C 13°C - 100% 0.14kPa
19:00
11°C 8.2°C 13°C - 100% 0.13kPa
20:00
11°C 8.4°C 12°C - 100% 0.07kPa
21:00
11°C 8.4°C 11°C - 100% 0.05kPa
22:00
11°C 8.4°C 11°C - 100% 0.07kPa
23:00
9°C 8.4°C 9.6°C - 100% 0.04kPa
Tue, May 26 Sunrise 05:13 Sunset 20:22
24:00
8.5°C 8.4°C 9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
01:00
8.2°C 8.5°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
02:00
8°C 8.4°C 8.4°C - 92% 0.03kPa
03:00
7.7°C 8.4°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.03kPa
04:00
7.8°C 8.3°C 8.2°C - 100% 0.03kPa
05:00
7.6°C 8.3°C 8.1°C - 100% 0.04kPa
06:00
8.1°C 8.3°C 8.8°C - 35% 0.05kPa
07:00
9.8°C 8.3°C 11°C - 5% 0.14kPa
08:00
11°C 8.5°C 14°C - 75% 0.37kPa
09:00
10°C 8.7°C 17°C - 0% 0.76kPa
10:00
10°C 9°C 20°C - 0% 1.1kPa
11:00
10°C 9.4°C 21°C - 0% 1.3kPa
12:00
10°C 9.8°C 22°C - 0% 1.4kPa
13:00
9.6°C 10°C 23°C - 5% 1.6kPa
14:00
9.4°C 11°C 23°C - 4% 1.7kPa
15:00
10°C 11°C 21°C - 34% 1.3kPa
16:00
11°C 11°C 19°C - 63% 0.93kPa
17:00
11°C 12°C 17°C - 92% 0.65kPa
18:00
11°C 12°C 15°C - 63% 0.42kPa
19:00
12°C 12°C 14°C - 34% 0.22kPa
20:00
11°C 12°C 12°C - 5% 0.07kPa
21:00
12°C 12°C 12°C - 35% 0.07kPa
22:00
12°C 12°C 12°C - 65% 0.07kPa
23:00
12°C 12°C 13°C - 94% 0.07kPa
Wed, May 27 Sunrise 05:12 Sunset 20:23
24:00
12°C 12°C 13°C - 96% 0.08kPa
01:00
13°C 12°C 14°C - 98% 0.09kPa
02:00
13°C 12°C 14°C - 100% 0.1kPa
03:00
13°C 12°C 15°C - 100% 0.17kPa
04:00
13°C 12°C 16°C - 100% 0.25kPa
05:00
13°C 12°C 16°C - 100% 0.32kPa
06:00
12°C 12°C 18°C - 100% 0.61kPa
07:00
11°C 12°C 20°C - 100% 0.96kPa
08:00
9.3°C 12°C 21°C - 100% 1.4kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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