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More Morning Frost in New England, USA
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Rule Morning Frost

Stowe - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Stowe, Vermont, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Time Window 88% failing
Frost Probability 79% failing
Wind Speed 69% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Frost Probability
46%
Soil Temperature3.0°C
Dew Point-6.3°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed2.1m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover51%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 86 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Apr 21
24:00✕36%1.2m/s
01:00✕36%1.4m/s
02:00✕36%1.1m/s
03:00✕38%0.8m/s
04:00✕38%0.78m/s
05:00✓36%1.1m/s
06:00✓36%1.3m/s
07:00✓47%1.4m/s
08:00✕59%1.5m/s
09:00✕55%1.6m/s
10:00✕47%1.7m/s
11:00✕44%2.2m/s
12:00✕42%2.6m/s
13:00✕42%2.5m/s
14:00✕53%2.2m/s
15:00✕46%2.1m/s
16:00✕49%2.1m/s
17:00✕57%2.4m/s
18:00✕57%2.2m/s
19:00✕44%1.5m/s
20:00✕37%2.1m/s
21:00✕37%1.9m/s
22:00✕37%1.9m/s
23:00✕37%1.9m/s
Wed, Apr 22
24:00✕37%2m/s
01:00✕37%1.8m/s
02:00✕39%1.6m/s
03:00✕37%1.7m/s
04:00✕52%2m/s
05:00✓41%1.9m/s
06:00✓39%1.6m/s
07:00✓39%1.6m/s
08:00✕43%1.6m/s
09:00✕43%1.7m/s
10:00✕43%1.7m/s
11:00✕43%1.5m/s
12:00✕39%1.5m/s
13:00✕39%1.2m/s
14:00✕43%1.2m/s
15:00✕43%0.99m/s
16:00✕45%0.7m/s
17:00✕45%0.53m/s
18:00✕41%0.35m/s
19:00✕41%0.29m/s
20:00✕41%0.65m/s
21:00✕41%0.16m/s
22:00✕42%0.44m/s
23:00✕45%0.7m/s
Thu, Apr 23
24:00✕41%0.64m/s
01:00✕39%1m/s
02:00✕39%1.5m/s
03:00✕39%1.5m/s
04:00✕39%1.4m/s
05:00✓39%1.7m/s
06:00✓37%1.8m/s
07:00✓37%2.3m/s
08:00✕37%2.6m/s
09:00✕37%2.7m/s
10:00✕39%3.4m/s
11:00✕39%3.5m/s
12:00✕42%4m/s
13:00✕42%4m/s
14:00✕50%4m/s
15:00✕50%4m/s
16:00✕55%4.2m/s
17:00✕50%3m/s
18:00✕59%3.1m/s
19:00✕53%1.9m/s
20:00✕44%1.4m/s
21:00✕47%1.4m/s
22:00✕50%1.3m/s
23:00✕64%1.3m/s
Fri, Apr 24
24:00✕68%1.5m/s
01:00✕77%1.7m/s
02:00✕77%2m/s
03:00✕74%2.6m/s
04:00✕73%3.2m/s
05:00✓69%3.9m/s
06:00✓69%4m/s
07:00✓67%4.1m/s
08:00✕65%4.3m/s
09:00✕67%3.9m/s
10:00✕67%3.5m/s
11:00✕69%3.1m/s
12:00✕72%2.5m/s
13:00✕74%1.9m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Tue, Apr 21 Sunrise 05:56 Sunset 19:42
15:00
-6.3°C 3°C 5.6°C - 51% 0.53kPa
16:00
-6.4°C 2.9°C 6.2°C - 36% 0.57kPa
17:00
-6.4°C 2.9°C 6.5°C - 5% 0.58kPa
18:00
-4.1°C 2.9°C 6.2°C - 5% 0.49kPa
19:00
-1.9°C 2.9°C 3.4°C - 92% 0.25kPa
20:00 ☾
-3.8°C 2.8°C -0.13°C - 100% 0.15kPa
21:00 ☾
-4.3°C 2.7°C 0.18°C - 100% 0.18kPa
22:00 ☾
-4.9°C 2.5°C -0.43°C - 100% 0.17kPa
23:00 ☾
-5°C 2.4°C -0.15°C - 100% 0.18kPa
Wed, Apr 22 Sunrise 05:55 Sunset 19:43
24:00 ☾
-4.8°C 2.3°C 0.21°C - 100% 0.19kPa
01:00 ☾
-4.6°C 2.2°C 0.51°C - 100% 0.2kPa
02:00 ☾
-4.4°C 2.2°C 0.52°C - 100% 0.19kPa
03:00 ☾
-3.9°C 2.1°C 0.43°C - 93% 0.17kPa
04:00 ☾
-3.6°C 2°C -0.34°C - 98% 0.13kPa
05:00 ☾
-2.3°C 2°C -0.44°C - 100% 0.08kPa
06:00
-1.5°C 1.9°C -0.89°C - 100% 0.02kPa
07:00
-1.6°C 1.8°C -0.87°C - 100% 0.03kPa
08:00
-1.4°C 1.6°C -0.29°C - 100% 0.04kPa
09:00
-1°C 1.7°C 0.13°C - 100% 0.05kPa
10:00
-0.4°C 1.7°C 0.95°C - 100% 0.06kPa
11:00
0.4°C 1.7°C 1.7°C - 100% 0.06kPa
12:00
1.3°C 1.7°C 2.2°C - 100% 0.04kPa
13:00
2°C 1.7°C 2.9°C - 100% 0.05kPa
14:00
2.2°C 1.7°C 3.5°C - 100% 0.07kPa
15:00
2.3°C 1.7°C 3.8°C - 100% 0.08kPa
16:00
2.7°C 1.7°C 4.2°C - 100% 0.08kPa
17:00
3.1°C 1.7°C 4.2°C - 100% 0.06kPa
18:00
3.3°C 1.7°C 4°C - 99% 0.04kPa
19:00
3.2°C 1.7°C 3.6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
20:00 ☾
2.6°C 1.7°C 2.7°C - 100% 0.01kPa
21:00 ☾
2.5°C 1.7°C 2.6°C - 100% 0.01kPa
22:00 ☾
2.3°C 1.7°C 2.4°C - 78% 0.01kPa
23:00 ☾
1.1°C 1.7°C 1.1°C - 56% 0kPa
Thu, Apr 23 Sunrise 05:53 Sunset 19:45
24:00 ☾
-0.4°C 1.6°C -0.39°C - 100% 0kPa
01:00 ☾
1.9°C 1.6°C 2°C - 100% 0.01kPa
02:00 ☾
2°C 1.6°C 2.1°C - 100% 0.01kPa
03:00 ☾
0.6°C 1.5°C 0.69°C - 100% 0kPa
04:00 ☾
1.9°C 1.5°C 2°C - 100% 0kPa
05:00 ☾
2.4°C 1.5°C 2.4°C - 100% 0kPa
06:00
2.3°C 1.6°C 2.4°C - 100% 0kPa
07:00
2.2°C 1.6°C 2.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
08:00
1.7°C 1.6°C 1.9°C - 100% 0.01kPa
09:00
1.2°C 1.6°C 1.6°C - 93% 0.02kPa
10:00
0.3°C 1.6°C 2°C - 98% 0.08kPa
11:00
0.4°C 1.6°C 2.1°C - 97% 0.08kPa
12:00
0.8°C 1.6°C 3°C - 96% 0.11kPa
13:00
0.5°C 1.6°C 2.7°C - 91% 0.11kPa
14:00
0.1°C 1.6°C 3.1°C - 95% 0.15kPa
15:00
-0.7°C 1.5°C 3.4°C - 98% 0.2kPa
16:00
-0.8°C 1.6°C 4.2°C - 100% 0.25kPa
17:00
-0.5°C 1.6°C 3.6°C - 97% 0.2kPa
18:00
-0.6°C 1.6°C 4°C - 55% 0.23kPa
19:00
-0.9°C 1.6°C 2.3°C - 72% 0.15kPa
20:00 ☾
-2.4°C 1.6°C -0.41°C - 76% 0.08kPa
21:00 ☾
-3.2°C 1.3°C -1.7°C - 52% 0.06kPa
22:00 ☾
-4.1°C 1.1°C -3.1°C - 29% 0.04kPa
23:00 ☾
-5°C 0.87°C -4.4°C - 5% 0.02kPa
Fri, Apr 24 Sunrise 05:52 Sunset 19:46
24:00 ☾
-4.6°C 0.87°C -2.8°C - 5% 0.06kPa
01:00 ☾
-4.4°C 0.87°C -1.3°C - 5% 0.11kPa
02:00 ☾
-4.2°C 0.87°C 0.32°C - 5% 0.18kPa
03:00 ☾
-4°C 0.86°C 1.6°C - 32% 0.23kPa
04:00 ☾
-3.9°C 0.86°C 2.9°C - 59% 0.3kPa
05:00 ☾
-4°C 0.85°C 4.2°C - 86% 0.37kPa
06:00
-3.8°C 0.86°C 4.9°C - 88% 0.4kPa
07:00
-3.8°C 0.86°C 5.5°C - 90% 0.44kPa
08:00
-3.7°C 0.87°C 6.2°C - 92% 0.48kPa
09:00
-3.6°C 0.85°C 5.6°C - 94% 0.44kPa
10:00
-3.6°C 0.83°C 5.1°C - 97% 0.41kPa
11:00
-3.6°C 0.82°C 4.5°C - 99% 0.37kPa
12:00
-3.2°C 0.81°C 3.2°C - 68% 0.28kPa
13:00
-3°C 0.81°C 1.8°C - 38% 0.21kPa
14:00
-3°C 0.81°C 0.45°C - 7% 0.14kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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