Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for North Conway, New England, USA

North Conway, New Hampshire, United States

North Conway lies below the White Mountains, with the Saco River, covered bridges, wooded slopes, and nearby road overlooks framing fall color.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature16.7°C

Dew Point10.2°C (moderate dew point)

Wind Speed2.3m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover70%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (85-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Time Window88% of hours
Wind Speed50% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across New England, USA. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at North Conway.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across New England, USA →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at North Conway during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 65% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

08:00 local time, shared by 8 of 18 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

February, with 11 of 18 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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85-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 85-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 85 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/New_York	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Aug 22
01:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
05:00	✓	0%	1.5m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.5m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.4m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
18:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
05:00	✓	0%	0.84m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.1m/s
07:00	✓	0%	0.99m/s
08:00	✕	0%	0.76m/s
09:00	✕	0%	0.64m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1m/s
11:00	✕	0%	1m/s
12:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
16:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
17:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
18:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
23:00	✕	0%	0.46m/s
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	✕	0%	0.7m/s
01:00	✕	0%	0.54m/s
02:00	✕	0%	0.67m/s
03:00	✕	0%	0.51m/s
04:00	✕	0%	0.99m/s
05:00	✓	0%	0.84m/s
06:00	✓	0%	0.43m/s
07:00	✓	0%	0.83m/s
08:00	✕	0%	0.59m/s
09:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
10:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
12:00	✕	0%	4.3m/s
13:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
14:00	✕	0%	4.3m/s
15:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
16:00	✕	0%	5m/s
17:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
18:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
02:00	✕	0%	2m/s
03:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
04:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
05:00	✓	0%	4.4m/s
06:00	✓	0%	4.3m/s
07:00	✓	0%	4.2m/s
08:00	✕	0%	4.1m/s
09:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
10:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/New_York	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Sat, Aug 22 Sunrise 05:56 Sunset 19:37
16:00	10°C	17°C	20°C	-	70%	1.1kPa
17:00	11°C	17°C	20°C	-	92%	1kPa
18:00	12°C	17°C	18°C	-	89%	0.71kPa
19:00	11°C	17°C	17°C	-	100%	0.57kPa
20:00 ☾	11°C	17°C	16°C	-	100%	0.59kPa
21:00 ☾	10°C	17°C	16°C	-	97%	0.58kPa
22:00 ☾	10°C	17°C	16°C	-	100%	0.54kPa
23:00 ☾	11°C	17°C	16°C	-	100%	0.51kPa
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 05:57 Sunset 19:35
24:00 ☾	12°C	16°C	15°C	-	100%	0.28kPa
01:00 ☾	13°C	16°C	14°C	-	100%	0.15kPa
02:00 ☾	14°C	16°C	14°C	-	100%	0.07kPa
03:00 ☾	14°C	16°C	14°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
04:00 ☾	14°C	16°C	15°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
05:00 ☾	15°C	16°C	15°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
06:00	15°C	16°C	15°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
07:00	15°C	16°C	15°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
08:00	15°C	16°C	15°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
09:00	15°C	16°C	15°C	-	100%	0kPa
10:00	16°C	16°C	16°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
11:00	16°C	16°C	16°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
12:00	16°C	16°C	16°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
13:00	17°C	16°C	17°C	-	100%	0.08kPa
14:00	17°C	16°C	18°C	-	100%	0.15kPa
15:00	17°C	16°C	18°C	-	100%	0.12kPa
16:00	17°C	16°C	17°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
17:00	17°C	16°C	17°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
18:00	17°C	16°C	17°C	-	100%	0kPa
19:00	17°C	16°C	17°C	-	100%	0kPa
20:00 ☾	17°C	16°C	17°C	-	100%	0kPa
21:00 ☾	17°C	16°C	17°C	-	100%	0kPa
22:00 ☾	17°C	16°C	17°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
23:00 ☾	16°C	16°C	16°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 05:58 Sunset 19:33
24:00 ☾	16°C	16°C	16°C	-	100%	0.01kPa
01:00 ☾	17°C	16°C	17°C	-	98%	0.01kPa
02:00 ☾	16°C	16°C	16°C	-	77%	0.01kPa
03:00 ☾	16°C	16°C	16°C	-	75%	0.01kPa
04:00 ☾	15°C	16°C	15°C	-	90%	0.02kPa
05:00 ☾	15°C	16°C	15°C	-	62%	0.03kPa
06:00	15°C	16°C	15°C	-	56%	0.04kPa
07:00	15°C	16°C	15°C	-	56%	0.04kPa
08:00	16°C	16°C	16°C	-	58%	0.07kPa
09:00	16°C	16°C	18°C	-	4%	0.21kPa
10:00	16°C	16°C	20°C	-	4%	0.46kPa
11:00	14°C	16°C	21°C	-	4%	0.89kPa
12:00	12°C	16°C	22°C	-	0%	1.2kPa
13:00	11°C	16°C	22°C	-	51%	1.4kPa
14:00	11°C	16°C	22°C	-	98%	1.4kPa
15:00	8.8°C	16°C	21°C	-	59%	1.4kPa
16:00	9.3°C	17°C	21°C	-	77%	1.4kPa
17:00	8.9°C	17°C	21°C	-	69%	1.4kPa
18:00	9.1°C	17°C	20°C	-	84%	1.2kPa
19:00	10°C	17°C	18°C	-	100%	0.77kPa
20:00 ☾	9.5°C	17°C	15°C	-	93%	0.53kPa
21:00 ☾	9.5°C	17°C	14°C	-	94%	0.4kPa
22:00 ☾	9.4°C	17°C	13°C	-	96%	0.3kPa
23:00 ☾	9.3°C	16°C	12°C	-	97%	0.2kPa
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:00 Sunset 19:32
24:00 ☾	9.8°C	16°C	13°C	-	93%	0.29kPa
01:00 ☾	10°C	16°C	14°C	-	89%	0.39kPa
02:00 ☾	11°C	16°C	16°C	-	85%	0.51kPa
03:00 ☾	11°C	16°C	18°C	-	89%	0.69kPa
04:00 ☾	11°C	16°C	19°C	-	93%	0.9kPa
05:00 ☾	11°C	16°C	21°C	-	97%	1.1kPa
06:00 ☾	12°C	16°C	20°C	-	93%	1.1kPa
07:00	12°C	17°C	20°C	-	89%	0.97kPa
08:00	12°C	17°C	20°C	-	85%	0.89kPa
09:00	12°C	17°C	19°C	-	79%	0.83kPa
10:00	11°C	17°C	18°C	-	73%	0.76kPa
11:00	11°C	17°C	17°C	-	67%	0.7kPa
12:00	11°C	17°C	16°C	-	47%	0.51kPa
13:00	11°C	17°C	15°C	-	28%	0.35kPa
14:00	11°C	17°C	13°C	-	8%	0.21kPa
15:00	11°C	16°C	12°C	-	6%	0.15kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 22, 2026, 7:04 PM UTC

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