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Rule Morning Frost

North Conway - Morning Frost - New England, USA

North Conway, New Hampshire, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 58% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature16.7°C
Dew Point13.4°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed0.8m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover0%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Tue, Jul 7
09:000%0.83m/s
10:000%1.1m/s
11:000%1.1m/s
12:000%1.5m/s
13:000%1.5m/s
14:000%1.6m/s
15:000%2.1m/s
16:000%2.3m/s
17:000%2.7m/s
18:000%3.4m/s
19:000%2m/s
20:000%1.2m/s
21:000%0.83m/s
22:000%1.3m/s
23:000%1.7m/s
Wed, Jul 8
24:000%1.3m/s
01:000%1.3m/s
02:000%1.5m/s
03:000%1.7m/s
04:000%1.7m/s
05:000%1.6m/s
06:000%1.6m/s
07:000%0.71m/s
08:000%0.4m/s
09:000%0.12m/s
10:000%0.77m/s
11:000%1.2m/s
12:000%1.8m/s
13:000%1.7m/s
14:000%1.8m/s
15:000%1.9m/s
16:000%1.8m/s
17:000%1.5m/s
18:000%1.9m/s
19:000%2m/s
20:000%1.6m/s
21:000%1.8m/s
22:000%1.8m/s
23:000%1.6m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%1.6m/s
01:000%1.6m/s
02:000%1.9m/s
03:000%2.1m/s
04:000%2.2m/s
05:000%2.3m/s
06:000%1.9m/s
07:000%1.3m/s
08:000%1.2m/s
09:000%1.1m/s
10:000%1.5m/s
11:000%1.9m/s
12:000%2m/s
13:000%2.8m/s
14:000%3.5m/s
15:000%4.1m/s
16:000%3.4m/s
17:000%3.8m/s
18:000%2.5m/s
19:000%0.47m/s
20:000%1.5m/s
21:000%1.3m/s
22:000%1.8m/s
23:000%1.9m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%1.7m/s
01:000%1.3m/s
02:000%1.1m/s
03:000%1.2m/s
04:000%1.4m/s
05:000%1.3m/s
06:000%1.4m/s
07:000%1.2m/s
08:000%1.4m/s
09:000%1.2m/s
10:000%0.84m/s
11:000%0.19m/s
12:000%0.93m/s
13:000%1.7m/s
14:000%1.8m/s
15:000%1.7m/s
16:000%1.7m/s
17:000%1.7m/s
18:000%1.7m/s
19:000%1.7m/s
20:000%1.7m/s
21:000%1.5m/s
22:000%1.4m/s
23:000%1.3m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%1.2m/s
01:000%1.1m/s
02:000%1m/s
03:000%1.3m/s
04:000%1.5m/s
05:000%1.7m/s
06:000%1.7m/s
07:000%1.6m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 05:10 Sunset 20:28
10:00
13°C 17°C 25°C - 0% 1.7kPa
11:00
13°C 17°C 26°C - 2% 2kPa
12:00
12°C 17°C 27°C - 45% 2.2kPa
13:00
13°C 17°C 28°C - 73% 2.3kPa
14:00
13°C 18°C 28°C - 100% 2.2kPa
15:00
15°C 18°C 26°C - 100% 1.8kPa
16:00
13°C 18°C 27°C - 54% 2kPa
17:00
13°C 18°C 27°C - 100% 2.1kPa
18:00
17°C 18°C 25°C - 100% 1.2kPa
19:00
18°C 18°C 23°C - 11% 0.87kPa
20:00
16°C 18°C 21°C - 47% 0.56kPa
21:00
15°C 18°C 19°C - 35% 0.48kPa
22:00
14°C 18°C 18°C - 48% 0.47kPa
23:00
14°C 18°C 18°C - 100% 0.44kPa
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 05:10 Sunset 20:28
24:00
14°C 18°C 17°C - 90% 0.44kPa
01:00
13°C 18°C 17°C - 60% 0.42kPa
02:00
13°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.4kPa
03:00
13°C 18°C 17°C - 88% 0.4kPa
04:00
13°C 18°C 17°C - 16% 0.38kPa
05:00
13°C 18°C 17°C - 0% 0.39kPa
06:00
14°C 18°C 17°C - 0% 0.35kPa
07:00
16°C 18°C 20°C - 5% 0.55kPa
08:00
16°C 18°C 23°C - 2% 1kPa
09:00
16°C 18°C 25°C - 0% 1.5kPa
10:00
14°C 18°C 27°C - 28% 1.9kPa
11:00
14°C 18°C 28°C - 100% 2.2kPa
12:00
14°C 18°C 29°C - 65% 2.4kPa
13:00
14°C 19°C 30°C - 15% 2.6kPa
14:00
14°C 19°C 30°C - 9% 2.7kPa
15:00
14°C 19°C 30°C - 37% 2.8kPa
16:00
13°C 20°C 30°C - 33% 2.9kPa
17:00
12°C 20°C 30°C - 26% 2.8kPa
18:00
15°C 20°C 29°C - 16% 2.2kPa
19:00
18°C 20°C 25°C - 5% 1.1kPa
20:00
18°C 20°C 22°C - 31% 0.6kPa
21:00
17°C 20°C 20°C - 100% 0.33kPa
22:00
18°C 20°C 19°C - 100% 0.16kPa
23:00
17°C 20°C 18°C - 100% 0.11kPa
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 05:11 Sunset 20:27
24:00
16°C 20°C 17°C - 60% 0.1kPa
01:00
16°C 19°C 17°C - 100% 0.1kPa
02:00
17°C 19°C 18°C - 100% 0.11kPa
03:00
17°C 19°C 18°C - 100% 0.11kPa
04:00
17°C 19°C 18°C - 100% 0.1kPa
05:00
17°C 19°C 18°C - 100% 0.09kPa
06:00
17°C 19°C 18°C - 72% 0.09kPa
07:00
18°C 19°C 19°C - 83% 0.11kPa
08:00
18°C 19°C 20°C - 100% 0.29kPa
09:00
18°C 19°C 20°C - 94% 0.21kPa
10:00
17°C 19°C 24°C - 100% 1.2kPa
11:00
16°C 19°C 26°C - 100% 1.5kPa
12:00
18°C 19°C 25°C - 100% 1.1kPa
13:00
20°C 19°C 23°C - 100% 0.47kPa
14:00
20°C 19°C 23°C - 100% 0.46kPa
15:00
19°C 19°C 21°C - 100% 0.35kPa
16:00
18°C 20°C 19°C - 100% 0.26kPa
17:00
16°C 20°C 18°C - 100% 0.18kPa
18:00
16°C 20°C 17°C - 68% 0.18kPa
19:00
15°C 19°C 16°C - 36% 0.17kPa
20:00
14°C 19°C 16°C - 4% 0.17kPa
21:00
13°C 19°C 15°C - 4% 0.2kPa
22:00
12°C 19°C 15°C - 5% 0.22kPa
23:00
12°C 19°C 14°C - 5% 0.25kPa
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 05:12 Sunset 20:27
24:00
12°C 19°C 16°C - 7% 0.41kPa
01:00
13°C 19°C 18°C - 9% 0.6kPa
02:00
13°C 18°C 20°C - 12% 0.84kPa
03:00
13°C 19°C 21°C - 11% 1.1kPa
04:00
13°C 19°C 23°C - 11% 1.4kPa
05:00
12°C 19°C 25°C - 11% 1.7kPa
06:00
12°C 19°C 25°C - 40% 1.7kPa
07:00
13°C 19°C 25°C - 69% 1.6kPa
08:00
13°C 19°C 25°C - 99% 1.6kPa
09:00
14°C 19°C 24°C - 99% 1.4kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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