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Rule Morning Frost

North Conway - Morning Frost - New England, USA

North Conway, New Hampshire, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 49% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9.8°C
Dew Point6.0°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed0.5m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, May 24
24:000%0.8m/s
01:000%0.51m/s
02:000%0.51m/s
03:000%0.74m/s
04:000%0.83m/s
05:000%0.96m/s
06:000%0.97m/s
07:000%0.73m/s
08:000%0.85m/s
09:000%0.51m/s
10:000%1m/s
11:000%0.37m/s
12:000%0.34m/s
13:000%0.28m/s
14:000%0.13m/s
15:000%0.34m/s
16:000%0.8m/s
17:000%0.96m/s
18:000%0.91m/s
19:000%0.68m/s
20:000%1m/s
21:000%1m/s
22:001.4%0.97m/s
23:001.4%1.4m/s
Mon, May 25
24:001.4%1.4m/s
01:001.4%1.4m/s
02:001.4%1.3m/s
03:001.4%1.4m/s
04:001.4%1.4m/s
05:001.4%1.5m/s
06:001.4%0.89m/s
07:001.4%0.86m/s
08:001.4%0.94m/s
09:001.6%0.55m/s
10:001.6%0.65m/s
11:001.4%1.1m/s
12:001.6%0.19m/s
13:002.3%0.39m/s
14:002.6%0.86m/s
15:000%1m/s
16:000%0.22m/s
17:000%1m/s
18:000%1.7m/s
19:000%1.7m/s
20:000%2.2m/s
21:000%2.5m/s
22:000%2.5m/s
23:000%2.4m/s
Tue, May 26
24:000%2.4m/s
01:000%2.3m/s
02:000%2.2m/s
03:000%2.2m/s
04:000%2.1m/s
05:000%2m/s
06:000%1.8m/s
07:000%1.3m/s
08:000%1m/s
09:000%1.3m/s
10:000%1.8m/s
11:000%2.2m/s
12:000%2.9m/s
13:000%3.6m/s
14:000%3.9m/s
15:000%3.4m/s
16:000%2.9m/s
17:000%2.4m/s
18:000%2.4m/s
19:000%2.3m/s
20:000%2.2m/s
21:000%2m/s
22:000%1.8m/s
23:000%1.6m/s
Wed, May 27
24:000%1.8m/s
01:000%2m/s
02:000%2.1m/s
03:000%2.7m/s
04:000%3.2m/s
05:000%3.8m/s
06:000%4m/s
07:000%4.3m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, May 24 Sunrise 05:10 Sunset 20:13
09:00
6°C 9.8°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.1kPa
10:00
5.9°C 9.6°C 6.9°C - 100% 0.07kPa
11:00
4.9°C 9.5°C 5.9°C - 100% 0.06kPa
12:00
4.7°C 9.3°C 5.7°C - 100% 0.06kPa
13:00
4.7°C 9.3°C 5.7°C - 100% 0.07kPa
14:00
4.4°C 9.1°C 5.4°C - 100% 0.06kPa
15:00
4°C 8.9°C 5°C - 100% 0.06kPa
16:00
4°C 8.7°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.04kPa
17:00
4.3°C 8.6°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.03kPa
18:00
4.3°C 8.4°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
19:00
4.4°C 8.3°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.02kPa
20:00
4.2°C 8.2°C 4.6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
21:00
4.2°C 8.1°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
22:00
4.1°C 7.9°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
23:00
4°C 7.8°C 4.4°C - 100% 0.02kPa
Mon, May 25 Sunrise 05:09 Sunset 20:14
24:00
4.3°C 7.7°C 4.5°C - 100% 0.01kPa
01:00
4.5°C 7.6°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.01kPa
02:00
5.1°C 7.5°C 5.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
03:00
5.6°C 7.4°C 5.6°C - 100% 0kPa
04:00
5.9°C 7.4°C 6°C - 100% 0kPa
05:00
6.2°C 7.3°C 6.2°C - 100% 0kPa
06:00
6.4°C 7.3°C 6.5°C - 100% 0.01kPa
07:00
6.6°C 7.3°C 6.7°C - 100% 0kPa
08:00
6.9°C 7.2°C 7°C - 100% 0kPa
09:00
7.2°C 7.2°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.01kPa
10:00
7.6°C 7.2°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
11:00
9.1°C 7.3°C 10°C - 100% 0.07kPa
12:00
9.3°C 7.4°C 9.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
13:00
11°C 7.5°C 12°C - 100% 0.12kPa
14:00
12°C 7.8°C 15°C - 100% 0.3kPa
15:00
13°C 8.1°C 17°C - 100% 0.53kPa
16:00
13°C 8.6°C 20°C - 100% 0.91kPa
17:00
12°C 9°C 20°C - 100% 0.96kPa
18:00
12°C 9.3°C 19°C - 100% 0.79kPa
19:00
13°C 9.6°C 16°C - 100% 0.4kPa
20:00
11°C 9.7°C 13°C - 100% 0.17kPa
21:00
10°C 9.7°C 11°C - 99% 0.05kPa
22:00
9.4°C 9.6°C 9.9°C - 78% 0.04kPa
23:00
8.7°C 9.6°C 9.2°C - 100% 0.04kPa
Tue, May 26 Sunrise 05:08 Sunset 20:15
24:00
8.2°C 9.5°C 8.8°C - 82% 0.04kPa
01:00
7.7°C 9.5°C 8.3°C - 30% 0.04kPa
02:00
7.3°C 9.4°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.04kPa
03:00
6.9°C 9.4°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.06kPa
04:00
6.3°C 9.3°C 7.8°C - 100% 0.1kPa
05:00
5.9°C 9.2°C 8°C - 100% 0.14kPa
06:00
6.2°C 9.1°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.2kPa
07:00
7.5°C 9.1°C 12°C - 100% 0.35kPa
08:00
7.5°C 9.3°C 15°C - 100% 0.65kPa
09:00
7.5°C 9.5°C 17°C - 100% 0.93kPa
10:00
7.3°C 9.8°C 19°C - 5% 1.2kPa
11:00
7.1°C 10°C 20°C - 3% 1.4kPa
12:00
7.2°C 10°C 21°C - 0% 1.5kPa
13:00
7.7°C 11°C 22°C - 0% 1.6kPa
14:00
8.3°C 11°C 23°C - 5% 1.7kPa
15:00
10°C 12°C 20°C - 5% 1.1kPa
16:00
11°C 13°C 17°C - 5% 0.65kPa
17:00
12°C 14°C 15°C - 6% 0.31kPa
18:00
12°C 14°C 15°C - 37% 0.31kPa
19:00
12°C 14°C 15°C - 68% 0.31kPa
20:00
11°C 14°C 15°C - 98% 0.31kPa
21:00
12°C 14°C 14°C - 67% 0.26kPa
22:00
12°C 14°C 14°C - 35% 0.21kPa
23:00
12°C 13°C 13°C - 4% 0.17kPa
Wed, May 27 Sunrise 05:07 Sunset 20:16
24:00
12°C 14°C 15°C - 5% 0.32kPa
01:00
13°C 14°C 18°C - 6% 0.52kPa
02:00
13°C 14°C 20°C - 7% 0.77kPa
03:00
13°C 14°C 20°C - 38% 0.92kPa
04:00
13°C 14°C 21°C - 69% 1.1kPa
05:00
12°C 14°C 22°C - 100% 1.3kPa
06:00
12°C 14°C 23°C - 68% 1.4kPa
07:00
11°C 15°C 23°C - 37% 1.6kPa
08:00
10°C 15°C 24°C - 5% 1.8kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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