Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Killington, New England, USA

Killington, Vermont, United States

Killington's elevated Green Mountain terrain offers overlapping wooded ridges, ski clearings, and broad overlooks that reveal bands of autumn color.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature15.9°C

Dew Point13.8°C (moderate dew point)

Wind Speed2.6m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover99%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (86-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Time Window88% of hours
Wind Speed85% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across New England, USA. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Killington.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across New England, USA →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Killington during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 65% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

08:00 local time, shared by 7 of 20 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

February, with 13 of 20 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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86-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 86-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 86 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/New_York	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Aug 22
24:00	✕	0%	0.79m/s
01:00	✕	0%	0.59m/s
02:00	✕	0%	0.55m/s
03:00	✕	0%	0.53m/s
04:00	✕	0%	0.68m/s
05:00	✓	0%	0.95m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.3m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.2m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
10:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
12:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
13:00	✕	0%	3.8m/s
14:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
15:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
16:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
17:00	✕	0%	2.6m/s
18:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
19:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
20:00	✕	0%	3m/s
21:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
05:00	✓	0%	1.7m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.7m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.7m/s
08:00	✕	0%	2m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2.2m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
14:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
15:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
16:00	✕	0%	1.8m/s
17:00	✕	0%	1.7m/s
18:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
19:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
20:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
21:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
22:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
23:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.4m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
05:00	✓	0%	1.5m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.7m/s
07:00	✓	0%	1.6m/s
08:00	✕	0%	1.6m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.4m/s
10:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
12:00	✕	0%	5.6m/s
13:00	✕	0%	6m/s
14:00	✕	0%	5.9m/s
15:00	✕	0%	5.4m/s
16:00	✕	0%	4.6m/s
17:00	✕	0%	5m/s
18:00	✕	0%	5.6m/s
19:00	✕	0%	4.7m/s
20:00	✕	0%	3.8m/s
21:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
22:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
23:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
01:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
02:00	✕	0%	3m/s
03:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
04:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
05:00	✓	0%	4m/s
06:00	✓	0%	3.4m/s
07:00	✓	0%	2.9m/s
08:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
09:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
10:00	✕	0%	4m/s
11:00	✕	0%	4.8m/s
12:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/New_York	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Sat, Aug 22 Sunrise 06:03 Sunset 19:43
16:00	14°C	16°C	20°C	-	99%	0.72kPa
17:00	14°C	16°C	20°C	-	73%	0.8kPa
18:00	14°C	16°C	20°C	-	32%	0.79kPa
19:00	14°C	16°C	18°C	-	20%	0.52kPa
20:00 ☾	12°C	16°C	17°C	-	2%	0.47kPa
21:00 ☾	12°C	16°C	15°C	-	0%	0.27kPa
22:00 ☾	12°C	16°C	13°C	-	6%	0.11kPa
23:00 ☾	12°C	16°C	13°C	-	99%	0.06kPa
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:04 Sunset 19:41
24:00 ☾	12°C	16°C	12°C	-	51%	0.05kPa
01:00 ☾	12°C	16°C	12°C	-	98%	0.04kPa
02:00 ☾	11°C	15°C	12°C	-	87%	0.04kPa
03:00 ☾	11°C	15°C	12°C	-	6%	0.03kPa
04:00 ☾	11°C	15°C	12°C	-	93%	0.02kPa
05:00 ☾	11°C	15°C	11°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
06:00 ☾	12°C	15°C	12°C	-	100%	0.02kPa
07:00	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
08:00	13°C	15°C	14°C	-	100%	0.08kPa
09:00	14°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
10:00	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
11:00	15°C	15°C	16°C	-	100%	0.06kPa
12:00	15°C	15°C	16°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
13:00	16°C	15°C	16°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
14:00	16°C	15°C	16°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
15:00	16°C	15°C	16°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
16:00	16°C	15°C	17°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
17:00	17°C	15°C	17°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
18:00	17°C	15°C	17°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
19:00	16°C	15°C	17°C	-	99%	0.01kPa
20:00 ☾	16°C	15°C	16°C	-	84%	0.01kPa
21:00 ☾	16°C	15°C	16°C	-	57%	0.01kPa
22:00 ☾	15°C	15°C	15°C	-	35%	0.02kPa
23:00 ☾	14°C	15°C	14°C	-	1%	0.05kPa
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:06 Sunset 19:39
24:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	14°C	-	0%	0.05kPa
01:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	14°C	-	0%	0.07kPa
02:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	5%	0.07kPa
03:00 ☾	12°C	15°C	13°C	-	1%	0.07kPa
04:00 ☾	12°C	14°C	13°C	-	0%	0.06kPa
05:00 ☾	12°C	14°C	12°C	-	0%	0.05kPa
06:00 ☾	12°C	14°C	12°C	-	0%	0.05kPa
07:00	12°C	14°C	13°C	-	0%	0.04kPa
08:00	14°C	14°C	15°C	-	0%	0.08kPa
09:00	14°C	14°C	16°C	-	7%	0.26kPa
10:00	12°C	14°C	18°C	-	1%	0.68kPa
11:00	10°C	14°C	20°C	-	1%	1.1kPa
12:00	8.8°C	15°C	20°C	-	25%	1.3kPa
13:00	9.3°C	15°C	20°C	-	7%	1.1kPa
14:00	9°C	15°C	20°C	-	5%	1.2kPa
15:00	9.1°C	15°C	20°C	-	12%	1.1kPa
16:00	7.7°C	15°C	21°C	-	38%	1.4kPa
17:00	8°C	15°C	21°C	-	77%	1.4kPa
18:00	8.7°C	15°C	19°C	-	91%	1.1kPa
19:00	9.6°C	15°C	16°C	-	100%	0.61kPa
20:00 ☾	8.6°C	15°C	15°C	-	96%	0.61kPa
21:00 ☾	9.3°C	15°C	15°C	-	96%	0.51kPa
22:00 ☾	10°C	15°C	14°C	-	96%	0.42kPa
23:00 ☾	11°C	15°C	14°C	-	95%	0.33kPa
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 19:38
24:00 ☾	11°C	15°C	14°C	-	96%	0.23kPa
01:00 ☾	12°C	15°C	13°C	-	97%	0.13kPa
02:00 ☾	12°C	15°C	13°C	-	97%	0.04kPa
03:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	98%	0.05kPa
04:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	98%	0.05kPa
05:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	14°C	-	99%	0.06kPa
06:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	14°C	-	99%	0.07kPa
07:00	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.09kPa
08:00	12°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.1kPa
09:00	12°C	15°C	15°C	-	79%	0.29kPa
10:00	11°C	15°C	16°C	-	58%	0.5kPa
11:00	10°C	15°C	18°C	-	36%	0.76kPa
12:00	11°C	15°C	16°C	-	26%	0.52kPa
13:00	11°C	15°C	14°C	-	16%	0.32kPa
14:00	11°C	15°C	12°C	-	5%	0.16kPa
15:00	11°C	14°C	12°C	-	4%	0.12kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 22, 2026, 7:05 PM UTC

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