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Rule Morning Frost

Killington - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Killington, Vermont, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 53% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature15.5°C
Dew Point13.8°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed1.2m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover0%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 79 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Jul 8
01:000%1.6m/s
02:000%1.5m/s
03:000%1.3m/s
04:000%1m/s
05:000%1.1m/s
06:000%1.1m/s
07:000%0.75m/s
08:000%1.4m/s
09:000%1.6m/s
10:000%1.2m/s
11:000%1.4m/s
12:000%1.5m/s
13:000%2.3m/s
14:000%2.9m/s
15:000%2.3m/s
16:000%2.6m/s
17:000%2.1m/s
18:000%1.7m/s
19:000%1.7m/s
20:000%1.7m/s
21:000%1.4m/s
22:000%1.8m/s
23:000%1.9m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%2.2m/s
01:000%2.2m/s
02:000%1.9m/s
03:000%1.9m/s
04:000%1.9m/s
05:000%1.9m/s
06:000%1.7m/s
07:000%1.4m/s
08:000%1.6m/s
09:000%1.9m/s
10:000%2.1m/s
11:000%2.9m/s
12:000%3.3m/s
13:000%3.6m/s
14:000%3.8m/s
15:000%2.7m/s
16:000%4.2m/s
17:000%3.6m/s
18:000%2.3m/s
19:000%2.1m/s
20:000%1.3m/s
21:000%0.5m/s
22:000%0.57m/s
23:000%0.92m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%0.71m/s
01:000%0.93m/s
02:000%1.1m/s
03:000%1.2m/s
04:000%1.4m/s
05:000%1.5m/s
06:000%1.3m/s
07:000%1.1m/s
08:000%1.2m/s
09:000%1.3m/s
10:000%1.5m/s
11:000%2.1m/s
12:000%2.8m/s
13:000%2.2m/s
14:000%1.7m/s
15:000%1.4m/s
16:000%1m/s
17:000%0.73m/s
18:000%0.82m/s
19:000%0.9m/s
20:000%0.98m/s
21:000%0.94m/s
22:000%0.91m/s
23:000%0.87m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%0.95m/s
01:000%1m/s
02:000%1.1m/s
03:000%1.5m/s
04:000%1.9m/s
05:000%2.3m/s
06:000%2.9m/s
07:000%3.6m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 05:18 Sunset 20:34
10:00
14°C 15°C 23°C - 0% 1.2kPa
11:00
14°C 16°C 24°C - 6% 1.5kPa
12:00
14°C 16°C 26°C - 41% 1.7kPa
13:00
14°C 16°C 26°C - 98% 1.8kPa
14:00
15°C 16°C 25°C - 100% 1.5kPa
15:00
14°C 16°C 25°C - 96% 1.5kPa
16:00
14°C 17°C 26°C - 58% 1.9kPa
17:00
14°C 17°C 26°C - 88% 1.8kPa
18:00
16°C 17°C 25°C - 6% 1.4kPa
19:00
18°C 17°C 24°C - 67% 0.9kPa
20:00
17°C 17°C 20°C - 86% 0.49kPa
21:00
15°C 17°C 19°C - 99% 0.45kPa
22:00
14°C 17°C 20°C - 77% 0.76kPa
23:00
13°C 17°C 18°C - 96% 0.55kPa
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 05:18 Sunset 20:33
24:00
13°C 17°C 17°C - 89% 0.45kPa
01:00
14°C 17°C 17°C - 72% 0.35kPa
02:00
14°C 17°C 17°C - 93% 0.28kPa
03:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 7% 0.25kPa
04:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 0% 0.2kPa
05:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 0% 0.15kPa
06:00
14°C 16°C 16°C - 0% 0.15kPa
07:00
15°C 16°C 18°C - 4% 0.35kPa
08:00
16°C 16°C 21°C - 0% 0.61kPa
09:00
16°C 16°C 23°C - 95% 0.91kPa
10:00
16°C 17°C 24°C - 92% 1.3kPa
11:00
15°C 17°C 26°C - 8% 1.6kPa
12:00
15°C 17°C 27°C - 5% 1.9kPa
13:00
14°C 17°C 28°C - 15% 2.1kPa
14:00
14°C 17°C 28°C - 5% 2.1kPa
15:00
14°C 18°C 29°C - 28% 2.3kPa
16:00
16°C 18°C 29°C - 92% 2.2kPa
17:00
17°C 18°C 25°C - 22% 1.3kPa
18:00
17°C 18°C 26°C - 99% 1.4kPa
19:00
18°C 18°C 22°C - 95% 0.53kPa
20:00
18°C 18°C 20°C - 98% 0.28kPa
21:00
18°C 18°C 19°C - 100% 0.23kPa
22:00
17°C 18°C 18°C - 75% 0.13kPa
23:00
17°C 18°C 17°C - 96% 0.09kPa
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 05:19 Sunset 20:33
24:00
16°C 18°C 17°C - 73% 0.07kPa
01:00
16°C 18°C 17°C - 99% 0.07kPa
02:00
17°C 18°C 17°C - 100% 0.09kPa
03:00
16°C 17°C 17°C - 100% 0.07kPa
04:00
16°C 17°C 16°C - 100% 0.04kPa
05:00
16°C 17°C 16°C - 100% 0.04kPa
06:00
16°C 17°C 16°C - 100% 0.04kPa
07:00
17°C 17°C 18°C - 100% 0.1kPa
08:00
17°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.24kPa
09:00
18°C 17°C 21°C - 100% 0.43kPa
10:00
17°C 17°C 22°C - 100% 0.61kPa
11:00
17°C 17°C 22°C - 100% 0.66kPa
12:00
19°C 17°C 22°C - 100% 0.46kPa
13:00
19°C 17°C 22°C - 100% 0.33kPa
14:00
19°C 17°C 22°C - 100% 0.52kPa
15:00
18°C 17°C 20°C - 73% 0.34kPa
16:00
17°C 18°C 18°C - 47% 0.19kPa
17:00
16°C 18°C 16°C - 20% 0.07kPa
18:00
15°C 17°C 16°C - 14% 0.07kPa
19:00
15°C 17°C 16°C - 7% 0.07kPa
20:00
15°C 17°C 15°C - 0% 0.07kPa
21:00
14°C 17°C 15°C - 2% 0.07kPa
22:00
14°C 17°C 15°C - 3% 0.07kPa
23:00
13°C 17°C 14°C - 5% 0.08kPa
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 05:20 Sunset 20:32
24:00
14°C 17°C 15°C - 9% 0.12kPa
01:00
15°C 17°C 16°C - 13% 0.16kPa
02:00
16°C 17°C 18°C - 17% 0.21kPa
03:00
16°C 17°C 20°C - 37% 0.51kPa
04:00
15°C 17°C 21°C - 58% 0.88kPa
05:00
13°C 17°C 23°C - 79% 1.3kPa
06:00
13°C 17°C 24°C - 55% 1.5kPa
07:00
12°C 17°C 24°C - 32% 1.7kPa
08:00
11°C 17°C 25°C - 9% 1.9kPa
09:00
11°C 17°C 25°C - 15% 1.8kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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