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Rule Morning Frost

Cape Cod - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Cape Cod, Massachusetts, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9725.9°C
Dew Point-4.9°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed4.7m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover5%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Fri, Mar 13
24:000%7.3m/s
01:000%7.3m/s
02:000%7.2m/s
03:000%7.8m/s
04:000%7.4m/s
05:000%7m/s
06:000%6.1m/s
07:000%5.6m/s
08:000%5.1m/s
09:000%4.7m/s
10:000%4.1m/s
11:000%3.3m/s
12:000%3.9m/s
13:000%5.1m/s
14:000%6.5m/s
15:000%6.7m/s
16:000%6m/s
17:000%5m/s
18:000%5.5m/s
19:000%5.4m/s
20:000%6.2m/s
21:000%7.5m/s
22:000%7.6m/s
23:000%7.5m/s
Sat, Mar 14
24:000%8.5m/s
01:000%9.8m/s
02:000%11m/s
03:000%11m/s
04:000%11m/s
05:000%9.7m/s
06:000%10m/s
07:000%8.9m/s
08:000%9m/s
09:000%9m/s
10:000%9.5m/s
11:000%9.7m/s
12:000%9.9m/s
13:000%9.6m/s
14:000%9.4m/s
15:000%8.7m/s
16:000%9.3m/s
17:000%9.5m/s
18:000%9.7m/s
19:000%9.9m/s
20:000%9.8m/s
21:000%9.1m/s
22:000%8.5m/s
23:000%7.8m/s
Sun, Mar 15
24:000%7.2m/s
01:000%6.6m/s
02:000%6.4m/s
03:000%6.2m/s
04:000%6.1m/s
05:000%5.2m/s
06:000%4.7m/s
07:000%4.2m/s
08:000%4.8m/s
09:000%4.5m/s
10:000%3.6m/s
11:000%2.9m/s
12:000%2.7m/s
13:000%3m/s
14:000%3.5m/s
15:000%5.4m/s
16:000%7.4m/s
17:000%9.3m/s
18:000%9.5m/s
19:000%9.8m/s
20:000%10m/s
21:000%11m/s
22:000%11m/s
23:000%12m/s
Mon, Mar 16
24:000%12m/s
01:000%13m/s
02:000%14m/s
03:000%15m/s
04:000%15m/s
05:000%16m/s
06:000%16m/s
07:000%17m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Fri, Mar 13 Sunrise 06:56 Sunset 18:45
09:00
-4.9°C 9726°C -0.44°C - 5% 0.17kPa
10:00
-5.4°C 9726°C 0.53°C - 5% 0.23kPa
11:00
-6.2°C 9726°C 1.4°C - 68% 0.29kPa
12:00
-6.6°C 9726°C 2.3°C - 100% 0.35kPa
13:00
-6.5°C 9726°C 2.7°C - 100% 0.37kPa
14:00
-7.4°C 9726°C 2.2°C - 100% 0.37kPa
15:00
-6.6°C 9726°C 1.9°C - 100% 0.33kPa
16:00
-6.1°C 9726°C 2.2°C - 100% 0.33kPa
17:00
-5.5°C 9726°C 1.8°C - 100% 0.29kPa
18:00
-5°C 9726°C 1.5°C - 100% 0.26kPa
19:00
-4.6°C 9726°C 1.3°C - 100% 0.24kPa
20:00
-3.9°C 9726°C 1.7°C - 100% 0.23kPa
21:00
-2.6°C 9726°C 2.5°C - 73% 0.22kPa
22:00
-1.8°C 9726°C 3°C - 66% 0.22kPa
23:00
-0.6°C 9726°C 4°C - 100% 0.23kPa
Sat, Mar 14 Sunrise 06:54 Sunset 18:46
24:00
1.1°C 9726°C 4.9°C - 100% 0.2kPa
01:00
3.6°C 9726°C 6°C - 100% 0.14kPa
02:00
5°C 9726°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.14kPa
03:00
3.6°C 9726°C 7°C - 100% 0.21kPa
04:00
2.6°C 9726°C 5.9°C - 2% 0.19kPa
05:00
1.8°C 9726°C 5.6°C - 5% 0.21kPa
06:00
-0.1°C 9726°C 5.7°C - 0% 0.31kPa
07:00
-1.4°C 9726°C 5°C - 5% 0.32kPa
08:00
-0.8°C 9726°C 5.1°C - 5% 0.3kPa
09:00
-0.8°C 9726°C 5.5°C - 5% 0.33kPa
10:00
-1.2°C 9726°C 5.8°C - 14% 0.36kPa
11:00
-1.5°C 9726°C 6°C - 80% 0.39kPa
12:00
-1.8°C 9726°C 5.9°C - 57% 0.39kPa
13:00
-2°C 9726°C 6.2°C - 63% 0.42kPa
14:00
-2.1°C 9726°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.46kPa
15:00
-1.9°C 9726°C 6.7°C - 88% 0.45kPa
16:00
-1.6°C 9726°C 6.5°C - 65% 0.42kPa
17:00
-2.5°C 9726°C 5.9°C - 5% 0.42kPa
18:00
-3°C 9726°C 4.9°C - 5% 0.37kPa
19:00
-3.5°C 9726°C 3.9°C - 5% 0.34kPa
20:00
-3.1°C 9726°C 3.4°C - 5% 0.29kPa
21:00
-2.8°C 9726°C 2.9°C - 5% 0.25kPa
22:00
-2.8°C 9726°C 2.4°C - 5% 0.23kPa
23:00
-3°C 9726°C 2°C - 5% 0.21kPa
Sun, Mar 15 Sunrise 06:52 Sunset 18:47
24:00
-3.4°C 9726°C 1.6°C - 5% 0.21kPa
01:00
-4°C 9726°C 1.1°C - 4% 0.21kPa
02:00
-4.2°C 9726°C 0.65°C - 5% 0.19kPa
03:00
-4.2°C 9726°C 0.35°C - 45% 0.18kPa
04:00
-4.4°C 9726°C 0.25°C - 5% 0.18kPa
05:00
-4.8°C 9726°C 0.05°C - 55% 0.19kPa
06:00
-5.3°C 9726°C 0.08°C - 100% 0.2kPa
07:00
-6°C 9726°C 0.25°C - 100% 0.23kPa
08:00
-6.5°C 9726°C 0.86°C - 100% 0.27kPa
09:00
-6.7°C 9726°C 1.3°C - 99% 0.3kPa
10:00
-6.3°C 9726°C 1.7°C - 80% 0.31kPa
11:00
-6°C 9726°C 2.2°C - 58% 0.32kPa
12:00
-5.9°C 9726°C 3.1°C - 93% 0.37kPa
13:00
-5.5°C 9726°C 4.2°C - 100% 0.42kPa
14:00
-4.6°C 9726°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.42kPa
15:00
-2.5°C 9726°C 4.7°C - 100% 0.35kPa
16:00
-0.6°C 9726°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.28kPa
17:00
1.1°C 9726°C 4.9°C - 100% 0.2kPa
18:00
1.7°C 9726°C 5.1°C - 100% 0.19kPa
19:00
2.2°C 9726°C 5.3°C - 100% 0.17kPa
20:00
2.8°C 9726°C 5.5°C - 100% 0.16kPa
21:00
3.3°C 9726°C 5.8°C - 100% 0.15kPa
22:00
3.7°C 9726°C 6.1°C - 100% 0.15kPa
23:00
4.1°C 9726°C 6.4°C - 100% 0.14kPa
Mon, Mar 16 Sunrise 06:51 Sunset 18:48
24:00
4.8°C 9726°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.13kPa
01:00
5.4°C 9726°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.11kPa
02:00
6°C 9726°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.1kPa
03:00
6.8°C 9726°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.08kPa
04:00
7.5°C 9726°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.06kPa
05:00
8.2°C 9726°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.03kPa
06:00
8.6°C 9726°C 9°C - 100% 0.03kPa
07:00
9.1°C 9726°C 9.4°C - 100% 0.02kPa
08:00
9.5°C 9726°C 9.7°C - 100% 0.02kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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