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Rule Morning Frost

Cape Cod - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Cape Cod, Massachusetts, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 90% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9725.9°C
Dew Point3.5°C (low dew point)
Wind Speed5.7m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, May 23
09:000%2.4m/s
10:000%2.4m/s
11:000%2.5m/s
12:000%2.5m/s
13:000%2.7m/s
14:000%2.5m/s
15:000%2.6m/s
16:000%2.7m/s
17:000%3.1m/s
18:000%2.9m/s
19:000%2.8m/s
20:000%3m/s
21:000%2.7m/s
22:000%2.9m/s
23:000%3.2m/s
Sun, May 24
24:000%3.5m/s
01:000%3.9m/s
02:000%4.1m/s
03:000%4.1m/s
04:000%4.2m/s
05:000%4.4m/s
06:000%4.8m/s
07:000%5.4m/s
08:000%6.2m/s
09:000%5.7m/s
10:000%4.7m/s
11:000%3.7m/s
12:000%4.2m/s
13:000%4.8m/s
14:000%5.6m/s
15:000%6.3m/s
16:000%7.1m/s
17:000%7.2m/s
18:000%7.5m/s
19:000%7.7m/s
20:000%7.8m/s
21:000%8.5m/s
22:000%8.4m/s
23:000%8.3m/s
Mon, May 25
24:000%8m/s
01:000%7.7m/s
02:000%7.1m/s
03:000%6.4m/s
04:000%5.9m/s
05:000%4.8m/s
06:000%4.3m/s
07:000%3.9m/s
08:000%4m/s
09:000%3.9m/s
10:000%3.8m/s
11:000%3.2m/s
12:000%3.6m/s
13:000%3.4m/s
14:000%2.2m/s
15:000%2.4m/s
16:000%3.3m/s
17:000%1.8m/s
18:000%1.4m/s
19:000%0.83m/s
20:000%0.6m/s
21:000%2.1m/s
22:000%2.2m/s
23:000%1.7m/s
Tue, May 26
24:000%1m/s
01:000%1.4m/s
02:000%0.89m/s
03:000%0.79m/s
04:000%1.7m/s
05:000%2.7m/s
06:000%3.1m/s
07:000%3.2m/s
08:000%2.4m/s
09:000%2.5m/s
10:000%2.9m/s
11:000%3.3m/s
12:000%3.3m/s
13:000%3.1m/s
14:000%3.9m/s
15:000%5.3m/s
16:000%6.7m/s
17:000%8.1m/s
18:000%8.6m/s
19:000%9.1m/s
20:000%9.6m/s
21:000%9.4m/s
22:000%9.3m/s
23:000%9.1m/s
Wed, May 27
24:000%8.4m/s
01:000%7.8m/s
02:000%7.1m/s
03:000%7m/s
04:000%6.8m/s
05:000%6.7m/s
06:000%5.6m/s
07:000%4.5m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, May 24 Sunrise 05:13 Sunset 20:02
09:00
3.5°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.61kPa
10:00
4.7°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.53kPa
11:00
7°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0.3kPa
12:00
8.3°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0.16kPa
13:00
8.8°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0.12kPa
14:00
9.1°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0.1kPa
15:00
9.4°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0.1kPa
16:00
9.8°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0.08kPa
17:00
10°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0.07kPa
18:00
11°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0.06kPa
19:00
11°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.06kPa
20:00
11°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.05kPa
21:00
11°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.06kPa
22:00
12°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.07kPa
23:00
12°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.06kPa
Mon, May 25 Sunrise 05:13 Sunset 20:03
24:00
12°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.05kPa
01:00
12°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.04kPa
02:00
13°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.04kPa
03:00
13°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.03kPa
04:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.03kPa
05:00
14°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.02kPa
06:00
15°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.02kPa
07:00
15°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.02kPa
08:00
15°C 9726°C 16°C - 100% 0.02kPa
09:00
16°C 9726°C 16°C - 100% 0.02kPa
10:00
16°C 9726°C 16°C - 100% 0.03kPa
11:00
16°C 9726°C 16°C - 100% 0.02kPa
12:00
16°C 9726°C 16°C - 100% 0.01kPa
13:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.01kPa
14:00
13°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.02kPa
15:00
13°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.04kPa
16:00
13°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.05kPa
17:00
13°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.07kPa
18:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.07kPa
19:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.06kPa
20:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.05kPa
21:00
14°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.04kPa
22:00
15°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.04kPa
23:00
14°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.03kPa
Tue, May 26 Sunrise 05:12 Sunset 20:04
24:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.03kPa
01:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 98% 0.03kPa
02:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.03kPa
03:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.03kPa
04:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.03kPa
05:00
14°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.02kPa
06:00
13°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.03kPa
07:00
13°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.08kPa
08:00
12°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.13kPa
09:00
13°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.22kPa
10:00
12°C 9726°C 16°C - 100% 0.33kPa
11:00
12°C 9726°C 16°C - 100% 0.41kPa
12:00
12°C 9726°C 16°C - 100% 0.41kPa
13:00
13°C 9726°C 17°C - 100% 0.45kPa
14:00
13°C 9726°C 16°C - 100% 0.38kPa
15:00
13°C 9726°C 16°C - 67% 0.28kPa
16:00
14°C 9726°C 16°C - 33% 0.19kPa
17:00
15°C 9726°C 16°C - 0% 0.09kPa
18:00
15°C 9726°C 15°C - 33% 0.08kPa
19:00
15°C 9726°C 15°C - 67% 0.07kPa
20:00
14°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.06kPa
21:00
15°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.06kPa
22:00
15°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.07kPa
23:00
15°C 9726°C 16°C - 100% 0.08kPa
Wed, May 27 Sunrise 05:11 Sunset 20:04
24:00
15°C 9726°C 16°C - 72% 0.07kPa
01:00
15°C 9726°C 16°C - 45% 0.06kPa
02:00
15°C 9726°C 16°C - 18% 0.06kPa
03:00
15°C 9726°C 16°C - 13% 0.09kPa
04:00
15°C 9726°C 16°C - 9% 0.13kPa
05:00
15°C 9726°C 16°C - 5% 0.17kPa
06:00
15°C 9726°C 17°C - 37% 0.18kPa
07:00
15°C 9726°C 17°C - 68% 0.19kPa
08:00
15°C 9726°C 17°C - 100% 0.2kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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