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Rule Morning Frost

Cape Cod - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Cape Cod, Massachusetts, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 97% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9725.9°C
Dew Point14.0°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed7.3m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover0%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 79 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Jul 8
01:000%9m/s
02:000%8.8m/s
03:000%8.9m/s
04:000%8.1m/s
05:000%7.9m/s
06:000%7.7m/s
07:000%7.6m/s
08:000%7.5m/s
09:000%6.9m/s
10:000%7.3m/s
11:000%7.5m/s
12:000%6.4m/s
13:000%5.9m/s
14:000%4.3m/s
15:000%3.8m/s
16:000%3.2m/s
17:000%2.7m/s
18:000%2.7m/s
19:000%1.8m/s
20:000%2.3m/s
21:000%3.2m/s
22:000%3.7m/s
23:000%3.8m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%3.9m/s
01:000%5m/s
02:000%5.3m/s
03:000%4.8m/s
04:000%5m/s
05:000%5.1m/s
06:000%5.1m/s
07:000%4.7m/s
08:000%5.2m/s
09:000%4.9m/s
10:000%5m/s
11:000%5.3m/s
12:000%5.7m/s
13:000%6.3m/s
14:000%7.5m/s
15:000%7.9m/s
16:000%7.8m/s
17:000%7.7m/s
18:000%7.9m/s
19:000%7.3m/s
20:000%6.8m/s
21:000%6.7m/s
22:000%6.3m/s
23:000%5.9m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%5.6m/s
01:000%5.3m/s
02:000%5.1m/s
03:000%4.6m/s
04:000%4m/s
05:000%3.8m/s
06:000%3.3m/s
07:000%2.9m/s
08:000%2.1m/s
09:000%2m/s
10:000%1.9m/s
11:000%3.2m/s
12:000%4.5m/s
13:000%4.4m/s
14:000%4.5m/s
15:000%5m/s
16:000%5.5m/s
17:000%6m/s
18:000%5.9m/s
19:000%5.8m/s
20:000%5.7m/s
21:000%4.4m/s
22:000%3.1m/s
23:000%1.9m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%1.6m/s
01:000%1.4m/s
02:000%1.2m/s
03:000%1.5m/s
04:000%1.9m/s
05:000%2.2m/s
06:000%4m/s
07:000%5.8m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 05:14 Sunset 20:17
10:00
14°C 9726°C 19°C - 0% 0.66kPa
11:00
14°C 9726°C 20°C - 0% 0.71kPa
12:00
14°C 9726°C 20°C - 0% 0.74kPa
13:00
14°C 9726°C 20°C - 0% 0.77kPa
14:00
14°C 9726°C 21°C - 0% 0.82kPa
15:00
14°C 9726°C 21°C - 4% 0.86kPa
16:00
13°C 9726°C 21°C - 17% 0.88kPa
17:00
13°C 9726°C 21°C - 51% 0.9kPa
18:00
13°C 9726°C 21°C - 94% 0.9kPa
19:00
14°C 9726°C 20°C - 5% 0.74kPa
20:00
14°C 9726°C 19°C - 5% 0.59kPa
21:00
15°C 9726°C 19°C - 0% 0.53kPa
22:00
15°C 9726°C 19°C - 5% 0.42kPa
23:00
16°C 9726°C 19°C - 71% 0.35kPa
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 05:15 Sunset 20:16
24:00
16°C 9726°C 19°C - 8% 0.27kPa
01:00
17°C 9726°C 19°C - 19% 0.32kPa
02:00
17°C 9726°C 19°C - 62% 0.31kPa
03:00
17°C 9726°C 19°C - 4% 0.29kPa
04:00
17°C 9726°C 19°C - 2% 0.28kPa
05:00
17°C 9726°C 19°C - 0% 0.25kPa
06:00
18°C 9726°C 20°C - 0% 0.25kPa
07:00
18°C 9726°C 21°C - 0% 0.37kPa
08:00
19°C 9726°C 23°C - 5% 0.61kPa
09:00
19°C 9726°C 24°C - 36% 0.85kPa
10:00
19°C 9726°C 26°C - 43% 1.1kPa
11:00
19°C 9726°C 27°C - 10% 1.3kPa
12:00
19°C 9726°C 28°C - 21% 1.5kPa
13:00
19°C 9726°C 28°C - 5% 1.6kPa
14:00
19°C 9726°C 28°C - 6% 1.5kPa
15:00
19°C 9726°C 27°C - 89% 1.4kPa
16:00
19°C 9726°C 26°C - 99% 1.1kPa
17:00
20°C 9726°C 26°C - 19% 0.99kPa
18:00
20°C 9726°C 25°C - 20% 0.83kPa
19:00
20°C 9726°C 23°C - 49% 0.62kPa
20:00
19°C 9726°C 22°C - 48% 0.47kPa
21:00
19°C 9726°C 22°C - 100% 0.44kPa
22:00
19°C 9726°C 22°C - 100% 0.45kPa
23:00
19°C 9726°C 22°C - 100% 0.4kPa
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 05:16 Sunset 20:16
24:00
20°C 9726°C 22°C - 100% 0.34kPa
01:00
20°C 9726°C 21°C - 99% 0.17kPa
02:00
21°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.1kPa
03:00
21°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.07kPa
04:00
21°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.05kPa
05:00
21°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.04kPa
06:00
21°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.04kPa
07:00
21°C 9726°C 22°C - 100% 0.04kPa
08:00
21°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.03kPa
09:00
22°C 9726°C 22°C - 67% 0.12kPa
10:00
21°C 9726°C 24°C - 92% 0.5kPa
11:00
20°C 9726°C 25°C - 39% 0.7kPa
12:00
20°C 9726°C 24°C - 55% 0.66kPa
13:00
20°C 9726°C 24°C - 47% 0.61kPa
14:00
20°C 9726°C 23°C - 49% 0.57kPa
15:00
20°C 9726°C 22°C - 66% 0.41kPa
16:00
20°C 9726°C 22°C - 83% 0.26kPa
17:00
20°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.12kPa
18:00
20°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.14kPa
19:00
20°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.16kPa
20:00
20°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.18kPa
21:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 68% 0.19kPa
22:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 35% 0.21kPa
23:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 3% 0.23kPa
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 05:16 Sunset 20:15
24:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 3% 0.22kPa
01:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 2% 0.2kPa
02:00
19°C 9726°C 20°C - 2% 0.19kPa
03:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 35% 0.24kPa
04:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 67% 0.29kPa
05:00
19°C 9726°C 22°C - 100% 0.34kPa
06:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.31kPa
07:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.28kPa
08:00
18°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.26kPa
09:00
17°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.39kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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