Rule Morning Frost

Morning Frost Forecast for Burlington, New England, USA

Burlington, Vermont, United States

Burlington's Lake Champlain waterfront looks west toward the Adirondacks, using breakwaters, boats, and the long horizon to structure sunset images.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Frost Probability

Soil Temperature9725.9°C

Dew Point16.8°C (high dew point)

Wind Speed3.7m/s (calm conditions)

Cloud Cover99%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (86-hour forecast)

Frost Probability100% of hours
Wind Speed93% of hours
Time Window88% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Morning Frost conditions across New England, USA. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Burlington.

Explore Morning Frost conditions across New England, USA →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Burlington during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 70% average confidence

Only 5 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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86-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 86-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 86 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time America/New_York	Time Window Sunrise -45m to +90m	Frost Probability ≥ 60.0%	Wind Speed ≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Aug 22
24:00	✕	0%	0.45m/s
01:00	✕	0%	0.18m/s
02:00	✕	0%	0.07m/s
03:00	✕	0%	0.41m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.3m/s
05:00	✓	0%	2.3m/s
06:00	✓	0%	2.7m/s
07:00	✓	0%	3.2m/s
08:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
09:00	✕	0%	3.5m/s
10:00	✕	0%	3.8m/s
11:00	✕	0%	3.8m/s
12:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
13:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
14:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
15:00	✕	0%	5m/s
16:00	✕	0%	3.7m/s
17:00	✕	0%	5.2m/s
18:00	✕	0%	5m/s
19:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
20:00	✕	0%	3.9m/s
21:00	✕	0%	4.6m/s
22:00	✕	0%	4.9m/s
23:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	✕	0%	4.9m/s
01:00	✕	0%	4.9m/s
02:00	✕	0%	5m/s
03:00	✕	0%	4.9m/s
04:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
05:00	✓	0%	5.2m/s
06:00	✓	0%	5.6m/s
07:00	✓	0%	5.2m/s
08:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
09:00	✕	0%	5.6m/s
10:00	✕	0%	5.6m/s
11:00	✕	0%	5.4m/s
12:00	✕	0%	4.4m/s
13:00	✕	0%	4.8m/s
14:00	✕	0%	4.9m/s
15:00	✕	0%	5.3m/s
16:00	✕	0%	5.5m/s
17:00	✕	0%	6.6m/s
18:00	✕	0%	7.6m/s
19:00	✕	0%	7.4m/s
20:00	✕	0%	5.6m/s
21:00	✕	0%	5.1m/s
22:00	✕	0%	4.5m/s
23:00	✕	0%	4.4m/s
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	✕	0%	4m/s
01:00	✕	0%	4.6m/s
02:00	✕	0%	4.5m/s
03:00	✕	0%	4.5m/s
04:00	✕	0%	4.5m/s
05:00	✓	0%	4.7m/s
06:00	✓	0%	4.2m/s
07:00	✓	0%	3.3m/s
08:00	✕	0%	2.7m/s
09:00	✕	0%	3m/s
10:00	✕	0%	3.1m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.8m/s
12:00	✕	0%	3.2m/s
13:00	✕	0%	4.7m/s
14:00	✕	0%	4.8m/s
15:00	✕	0%	3.4m/s
16:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
17:00	✕	0%	4.9m/s
18:00	✕	0%	5.4m/s
19:00	✕	0%	4.6m/s
20:00	✕	0%	6.2m/s
21:00	✕	0%	4.9m/s
22:00	✕	0%	3.6m/s
23:00	✕	0%	2.3m/s
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s
01:00	✕	0%	1.5m/s
02:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
03:00	✕	0%	1.1m/s
04:00	✕	0%	1.2m/s
05:00	✓	0%	1.2m/s
06:00	✓	0%	1.9m/s
07:00	✓	0%	2.6m/s
08:00	✕	0%	3.3m/s
09:00	✕	0%	2.9m/s
10:00	✕	0%	2.5m/s
11:00	✕	0%	2.1m/s
12:00	✕	0%	2m/s
13:00	✕	0%	1.9m/s

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time America/New_York	Dew Point °C	Surface Temperature °C	Temperature °C	Time Window	Total Cloud Coverage %	Vapor Pressure Deficit kPa
Sat, Aug 22 Sunrise 06:04 Sunset 19:46
16:00	17°C	9726°C	24°C	-	99%	1.1kPa
17:00	17°C	9726°C	24°C	-	74%	1.1kPa
18:00	17°C	9726°C	24°C	-	83%	1kPa
19:00	17°C	9726°C	23°C	-	99%	0.88kPa
20:00 ☾	16°C	9726°C	23°C	-	88%	0.88kPa
21:00 ☾	16°C	9726°C	22°C	-	2%	0.9kPa
22:00 ☾	15°C	9726°C	20°C	-	0%	0.65kPa
23:00 ☾	15°C	9726°C	19°C	-	0%	0.53kPa
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:05 Sunset 19:44
24:00 ☾	15°C	9726°C	19°C	-	0%	0.48kPa
01:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	18°C	-	5%	0.44kPa
02:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	18°C	-	5%	0.4kPa
03:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	17°C	-	5%	0.38kPa
04:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	17°C	-	54%	0.36kPa
05:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	17°C	-	80%	0.33kPa
06:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	16°C	-	13%	0.3kPa
07:00	14°C	9726°C	17°C	-	98%	0.3kPa
08:00	14°C	9726°C	18°C	-	100%	0.4kPa
09:00	15°C	9726°C	19°C	-	100%	0.54kPa
10:00	16°C	9726°C	20°C	-	99%	0.61kPa
11:00	17°C	9726°C	19°C	-	100%	0.35kPa
12:00	17°C	9726°C	19°C	-	100%	0.31kPa
13:00	17°C	9726°C	20°C	-	100%	0.4kPa
14:00	18°C	9726°C	20°C	-	97%	0.26kPa
15:00	18°C	9726°C	20°C	-	98%	0.27kPa
16:00	18°C	9726°C	20°C	-	100%	0.29kPa
17:00	18°C	9726°C	20°C	-	67%	0.32kPa
18:00	18°C	9726°C	21°C	-	34%	0.37kPa
19:00	18°C	9726°C	21°C	-	23%	0.33kPa
20:00 ☾	18°C	9726°C	20°C	-	0%	0.25kPa
21:00 ☾	17°C	9726°C	19°C	-	6%	0.21kPa
22:00 ☾	17°C	9726°C	18°C	-	9%	0.18kPa
23:00 ☾	17°C	9726°C	18°C	-	3%	0.22kPa
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:06 Sunset 19:42
24:00 ☾	16°C	9726°C	18°C	-	37%	0.23kPa
01:00 ☾	16°C	9726°C	18°C	-	4%	0.2kPa
02:00 ☾	16°C	9726°C	17°C	-	4%	0.2kPa
03:00 ☾	15°C	9726°C	17°C	-	2%	0.21kPa
04:00 ☾	15°C	9726°C	17°C	-	2%	0.22kPa
05:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	16°C	-	1%	0.22kPa
06:00 ☾	14°C	9726°C	16°C	-	3%	0.24kPa
07:00	14°C	9726°C	16°C	-	4%	0.24kPa
08:00	14°C	9726°C	16°C	-	6%	0.27kPa
09:00	14°C	9726°C	17°C	-	21%	0.32kPa
10:00	14°C	9726°C	18°C	-	8%	0.43kPa
11:00	14°C	9726°C	19°C	-	4%	0.61kPa
12:00	13°C	9726°C	20°C	-	100%	0.84kPa
13:00	13°C	9726°C	21°C	-	99%	1kPa
14:00	12°C	9726°C	22°C	-	2%	1.1kPa
15:00	11°C	9726°C	23°C	-	69%	1.4kPa
16:00	12°C	9726°C	23°C	-	98%	1.4kPa
17:00	12°C	9726°C	23°C	-	100%	1.4kPa
18:00	13°C	9726°C	22°C	-	72%	1.3kPa
19:00	12°C	9726°C	21°C	-	100%	1.1kPa
20:00 ☾	11°C	9726°C	20°C	-	87%	1kPa
21:00 ☾	12°C	6489°C	18°C	-	91%	0.62kPa
22:00 ☾	12°C	3252°C	15°C	-	95%	0.3kPa
23:00 ☾	12°C	15°C	13°C	-	99%	0.06kPa
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 19:41
24:00 ☾	12°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
01:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
02:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.03kPa
03:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
04:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
05:00 ☾	12°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.06kPa
06:00 ☾	13°C	15°C	13°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
07:00	13°C	14°C	13°C	-	100%	0.05kPa
08:00	13°C	14°C	13°C	-	100%	0.04kPa
09:00	13°C	14°C	14°C	-	97%	0.05kPa
10:00	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	93%	0.05kPa
11:00	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	90%	0.06kPa
12:00	14°C	14°C	14°C	-	78%	0.07kPa
13:00	13°C	14°C	14°C	-	65%	0.07kPa
14:00	13°C	14°C	14°C	-	53%	0.07kPa
15:00	13°C	14°C	13°C	-	55%	0.06kPa

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 22, 2026, 7:05 PM UTC

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