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Rule Morning Frost

Burlington - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Burlington, Vermont, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 85% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9725.9°C
Dew Point8.5°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed6.1m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, May 24
24:000%4.2m/s
01:000%4.3m/s
02:000%4.1m/s
03:000%4.2m/s
04:000%3.8m/s
05:000%3.8m/s
06:000%5.2m/s
07:000%5.2m/s
08:000%5.3m/s
09:000%6.1m/s
10:000%6.6m/s
11:000%7m/s
12:000%8.1m/s
13:000%8.4m/s
14:000%8.4m/s
15:000%8.5m/s
16:000%8.7m/s
17:000%9.2m/s
18:000%9.3m/s
19:000%9m/s
20:000%9.4m/s
21:000%9.5m/s
22:000%9.2m/s
23:000%8.6m/s
Mon, May 25
24:000%8.5m/s
01:000%7.8m/s
02:000%7.5m/s
03:000%7.1m/s
04:000%7.2m/s
05:000%7.1m/s
06:000%6.2m/s
07:000%5.9m/s
08:000%5m/s
09:000%5m/s
10:000%5m/s
11:000%4.9m/s
12:000%4.4m/s
13:000%3.8m/s
14:000%3.4m/s
15:000%2.8m/s
16:000%2.8m/s
17:000%2.7m/s
18:000%2.8m/s
19:000%2.8m/s
20:000%1.7m/s
21:000%1m/s
22:000%0.83m/s
23:000%1.7m/s
Tue, May 26
24:000%2.4m/s
01:000%3.3m/s
02:000%3.1m/s
03:000%3.3m/s
04:000%3.8m/s
05:000%3.7m/s
06:000%4.1m/s
07:000%3.9m/s
08:000%4.6m/s
09:000%5.5m/s
10:000%5.6m/s
11:000%5.6m/s
12:000%6.4m/s
13:000%7.2m/s
14:000%7.5m/s
15:000%5.4m/s
16:000%3.3m/s
17:000%1.2m/s
18:000%1.2m/s
19:000%1.1m/s
20:000%1.1m/s
21:000%0.82m/s
22:000%0.52m/s
23:000%0.22m/s
Wed, May 27
24:000%0.68m/s
01:000%1.1m/s
02:000%1.6m/s
03:000%1.8m/s
04:000%1.9m/s
05:000%2.1m/s
06:000%2.7m/s
07:000%3.3m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, May 24 Sunrise 05:16 Sunset 20:23
09:00
8.5°C 9726°C 9.7°C - 100% 0.1kPa
10:00
8.5°C 9726°C 9.8°C - 100% 0.11kPa
11:00
8.1°C 9726°C 9.8°C - 100% 0.13kPa
12:00
7.3°C 9726°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.17kPa
13:00
6.6°C 9726°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.2kPa
14:00
6.2°C 9726°C 9°C - 100% 0.19kPa
15:00
6.2°C 9726°C 9°C - 100% 0.2kPa
16:00
6.1°C 9726°C 9.5°C - 98% 0.25kPa
17:00
6°C 9726°C 9.7°C - 100% 0.27kPa
18:00
5.8°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0.31kPa
19:00
5.9°C 9726°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.26kPa
20:00
5.9°C 9726°C 9.2°C - 100% 0.24kPa
21:00
6°C 9726°C 9.2°C - 100% 0.23kPa
22:00
6.1°C 9726°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.21kPa
23:00
6.3°C 9726°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.2kPa
Mon, May 25 Sunrise 05:16 Sunset 20:24
24:00
6.5°C 9726°C 9.1°C - 100% 0.19kPa
01:00
7.4°C 9726°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.09kPa
02:00
7.2°C 9726°C 8.7°C - 100% 0.1kPa
03:00
7.5°C 9726°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.08kPa
04:00
7.8°C 9726°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.07kPa
05:00
7.9°C 9726°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.07kPa
06:00
8°C 9726°C 9°C - 100% 0.08kPa
07:00
8.2°C 9726°C 9.2°C - 100% 0.08kPa
08:00
8.3°C 9726°C 9.4°C - 100% 0.08kPa
09:00
8.5°C 9726°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.08kPa
10:00
8.8°C 9726°C 9.9°C - 100% 0.09kPa
11:00
9.2°C 9726°C 10°C - 100% 0.09kPa
12:00
9.6°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0.1kPa
13:00
10°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.12kPa
14:00
11°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.15kPa
15:00
11°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.2kPa
16:00
12°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.23kPa
17:00
12°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.22kPa
18:00
13°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.22kPa
19:00
13°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.23kPa
20:00
13°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.22kPa
21:00
12°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.2kPa
22:00
12°C 9726°C 14°C - 100% 0.16kPa
23:00
12°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.17kPa
Tue, May 26 Sunrise 05:15 Sunset 20:25
24:00
11°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.15kPa
01:00
11°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.14kPa
02:00
11°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.12kPa
03:00
10°C 9726°C 12°C - 100% 0.12kPa
04:00
10°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0.11kPa
05:00
10°C 9726°C 11°C - 100% 0.11kPa
06:00
10°C 9726°C 11°C - 77% 0.1kPa
07:00
11°C 9726°C 12°C - 18% 0.13kPa
08:00
12°C 9726°C 13°C - 20% 0.17kPa
09:00
12°C 9726°C 15°C - 0% 0.26kPa
10:00
12°C 9726°C 16°C - 1% 0.38kPa
11:00
13°C 9726°C 17°C - 4% 0.5kPa
12:00
13°C 9726°C 19°C - 4% 0.64kPa
13:00
13°C 9726°C 20°C - 4% 0.77kPa
14:00
13°C 9726°C 20°C - 1% 0.86kPa
15:00
13°C 6488°C 18°C - 15% 0.59kPa
16:00
13°C 3251°C 17°C - 29% 0.37kPa
17:00
13°C 13°C 15°C - 42% 0.2kPa
18:00
13°C 13°C 14°C - 33% 0.16kPa
19:00
12°C 13°C 14°C - 23% 0.12kPa
20:00
12°C 13°C 13°C - 13% 0.09kPa
21:00
12°C 13°C 13°C - 37% 0.08kPa
22:00
12°C 13°C 13°C - 60% 0.08kPa
23:00
12°C 13°C 13°C - 84% 0.08kPa
Wed, May 27 Sunrise 05:14 Sunset 20:25
24:00
13°C 13°C 14°C - 89% 0.09kPa
01:00
14°C 13°C 15°C - 94% 0.1kPa
02:00
15°C 13°C 16°C - 99% 0.12kPa
03:00
14°C 13°C 16°C - 99% 0.18kPa
04:00
14°C 13°C 17°C - 100% 0.25kPa
05:00
14°C 13°C 17°C - 100% 0.32kPa
06:00
13°C 13°C 19°C - 100% 0.61kPa
07:00
12°C 13°C 20°C - 100% 0.96kPa
08:00
10°C 14°C 22°C - 100% 1.4kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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