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Rule Morning Frost

Burlington - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Burlington, Vermont, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 67% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9725.9°C
Dew Point12.3°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed2.4m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover41%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Jun 6
22:000%7.2m/s
23:000%8.8m/s
Sun, Jun 7
24:000%7.6m/s
01:000%8.3m/s
02:000%7.2m/s
03:000%9.5m/s
04:000%8.2m/s
05:000%7.9m/s
06:000%7.6m/s
07:000%7.7m/s
08:000%7.5m/s
09:000%7.6m/s
10:000%7.2m/s
11:000%7.6m/s
12:000%8.3m/s
13:000%9.3m/s
14:000%10m/s
15:000%9.8m/s
16:000%9.1m/s
17:000%9m/s
18:000%8.3m/s
19:000%7.9m/s
20:000%5.8m/s
21:000%4.2m/s
22:000%2.4m/s
23:000%1.8m/s
Mon, Jun 8
24:000%1.1m/s
01:000%1.4m/s
02:000%1.7m/s
03:000%2.2m/s
04:000%1.9m/s
05:000%2.2m/s
06:000%1.8m/s
07:000%1.5m/s
08:000%1.4m/s
09:000%0.9m/s
10:000%1m/s
11:000%0.84m/s
12:000%1m/s
13:000%1.1m/s
14:000%0.87m/s
15:000%1.1m/s
16:000%0.91m/s
17:000%0.86m/s
18:000%1.3m/s
19:000%1.7m/s
20:000%0.98m/s
21:000%0.55m/s
22:000%1.3m/s
23:000%2.4m/s
Tue, Jun 9
24:000%2.4m/s
01:000%2.8m/s
02:000%3.1m/s
03:000%3.5m/s
04:000%3.6m/s
05:000%4.2m/s
06:000%4.7m/s
07:000%4.7m/s
08:000%5.5m/s
09:000%5.4m/s
10:000%5m/s
11:000%4.5m/s
12:000%4.4m/s
13:000%4.1m/s
14:000%3.3m/s
15:000%1.9m/s
16:000%1.1m/s
17:000%2m/s
18:000%2.3m/s
19:000%2.7m/s
20:000%2m/s
21:000%1m/s
22:000%1m/s
23:000%0.6m/s
Wed, Jun 10
24:000%1.6m/s
01:000%3.2m/s
02:000%3.5m/s
03:000%3.6m/s
04:000%3.1m/s
05:000%3.6m/s
06:000%3.8m/s
07:000%4.4m/s
08:000%4.4m/s
09:000%4m/s
10:000%3.6m/s
11:000%3.2m/s
12:000%2.8m/s
13:000%2.5m/s
14:000%2.1m/s
15:000%1.9m/s
16:000%1.7m/s
17:000%1.5m/s
18:000%1.4m/s
19:000%1.2m/s
20:000%1.1m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, Jun 7 Sunrise 05:08 Sunset 20:35
22:00
12°C 9726°C 14°C - 41% 0.17kPa
23:00
12°C 9726°C 14°C - 10% 0.17kPa
Mon, Jun 8 Sunrise 05:08 Sunset 20:35
24:00
12°C 9726°C 13°C - 58% 0.17kPa
01:00
11°C 9726°C 13°C - 49% 0.17kPa
02:00
11°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.16kPa
03:00
11°C 9726°C 13°C - 100% 0.16kPa
04:00
11°C 9726°C 13°C - 18% 0.16kPa
05:00
11°C 9726°C 13°C - 11% 0.16kPa
06:00
11°C 9726°C 13°C - 5% 0.17kPa
07:00
11°C 9726°C 13°C - 17% 0.2kPa
08:00
11°C 9726°C 14°C - 66% 0.25kPa
09:00
12°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.33kPa
10:00
11°C 9726°C 15°C - 5% 0.38kPa
11:00
11°C 9726°C 15°C - 100% 0.42kPa
12:00
11°C 9726°C 15°C - 99% 0.43kPa
13:00
11°C 9726°C 16°C - 89% 0.55kPa
14:00
10°C 9726°C 17°C - 43% 0.71kPa
15:00
10°C 9726°C 18°C - 44% 0.84kPa
16:00
10°C 9726°C 19°C - 5% 0.93kPa
17:00
12°C 9726°C 19°C - 5% 0.85kPa
18:00
13°C 9726°C 20°C - 4% 0.81kPa
19:00
13°C 9726°C 19°C - 5% 0.63kPa
20:00
13°C 9726°C 18°C - 0% 0.54kPa
21:00
12°C 9726°C 17°C - 4% 0.5kPa
22:00
12°C 9726°C 17°C - 5% 0.5kPa
23:00
11°C 9726°C 16°C - 4% 0.51kPa
Tue, Jun 9 Sunrise 05:08 Sunset 20:36
24:00
11°C 9726°C 15°C - 0% 0.45kPa
01:00
11°C 9726°C 15°C - 0% 0.4kPa
02:00
11°C 9726°C 14°C - 0% 0.35kPa
03:00
11°C 9726°C 14°C - 0% 0.32kPa
04:00
11°C 9726°C 14°C - 1% 0.3kPa
05:00
11°C 9726°C 14°C - 1% 0.27kPa
06:00
11°C 9726°C 13°C - 0% 0.25kPa
07:00
11°C 9726°C 14°C - 5% 0.28kPa
08:00
12°C 9726°C 15°C - 6% 0.36kPa
09:00
12°C 9726°C 16°C - 6% 0.42kPa
10:00
13°C 9726°C 17°C - 27% 0.5kPa
11:00
14°C 9726°C 18°C - 6% 0.55kPa
12:00
14°C 9726°C 20°C - 73% 0.67kPa
13:00
15°C 9726°C 21°C - 26% 0.79kPa
14:00
16°C 9726°C 22°C - 100% 0.81kPa
15:00
16°C 9726°C 22°C - 100% 0.8kPa
16:00
16°C 9726°C 22°C - 81% 0.75kPa
17:00
16°C 9726°C 21°C - 6% 0.57kPa
18:00
16°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.47kPa
19:00
17°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.43kPa
20:00
17°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.46kPa
21:00
16°C 9726°C 19°C - 100% 0.4kPa
22:00
16°C 9726°C 19°C - 100% 0.35kPa
23:00
16°C 9726°C 18°C - 100% 0.29kPa
Wed, Jun 10 Sunrise 05:08 Sunset 20:36
24:00
16°C 9726°C 18°C - 100% 0.29kPa
01:00
16°C 9726°C 18°C - 100% 0.25kPa
02:00
16°C 9726°C 17°C - 99% 0.19kPa
03:00
16°C 9726°C 18°C - 96% 0.21kPa
04:00
16°C 9726°C 18°C - 100% 0.25kPa
05:00
16°C 9726°C 18°C - 100% 0.18kPa
06:00
17°C 9726°C 17°C - 100% 0.07kPa
07:00
17°C 9726°C 17°C - 100% 0.07kPa
08:00
18°C 9726°C 18°C - 100% 0.07kPa
09:00
18°C 6490°C 19°C - 100% 0.07kPa
10:00
19°C 3253°C 19°C - 100% 0.07kPa
11:00
19°C 17°C 20°C - 100% 0.07kPa
12:00
19°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.05kPa
13:00
19°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.04kPa
14:00
18°C 17°C 18°C - 100% 0.02kPa
15:00
18°C 17°C 18°C - 100% 0.02kPa
16:00
18°C 17°C 18°C - 100% 0.01kPa
17:00
18°C 17°C 18°C - 100% 0.01kPa
18:00
18°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.01kPa
19:00
19°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.01kPa
20:00
19°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.01kPa
21:00
19°C 17°C 19°C - 100% 0.01kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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