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Rule Morning Frost

Burlington - Morning Frost - New England, USA

Burlington, Vermont, United States

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 68% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature9725.9°C
Dew Point16.1°C (high dew point)
Wind Speed3.9m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover56%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/New_York

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast predicts the first frost events that transform New England's fall foliage into crystalline masterpieces. We track overnight temperatures, dewpoint, and wind conditions to identify when frost will coat leaves, grasses, and stone walls with sparkling ice crystals.

The first hard frost of autumn is a cherished event in New England—it triggers the final phase of fall color and creates magical dawn conditions where ice crystals catch golden light. The region's iconic stone walls, covered bridges, and sugar maples take on new dimension when dusted with frost.

What makes New England frost photography exceptional:

  • Foliage enhancement - Frost crystals on red and orange leaves create otherworldly textures and highlights
  • Stone wall character - New England's ubiquitous dry-stacked stone walls gain definition and drama when frost-covered
  • Sugar maple groves - Vermont and New Hampshire maple stands combine brilliant color with frost textures
  • Historic elements - Colonial-era buildings, covered bridges, and farmsteads gain timeless quality under frost

Best conditions occur on clear, calm nights in October when temperatures drop to 28-32°F. Frost melts quickly after sunrise, so arrive before dawn for frost plus golden hour light. Protected valleys and hollows accumulate frost more heavily than exposed hilltops.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 79 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/New_York
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Jul 8
01:000%5.3m/s
02:000%4.9m/s
03:000%4.6m/s
04:000%4.7m/s
05:000%4.7m/s
06:000%4.6m/s
07:000%4.5m/s
08:000%3.6m/s
09:000%4.4m/s
10:000%3.9m/s
11:000%3.4m/s
12:000%3.3m/s
13:000%2.2m/s
14:000%1.9m/s
15:000%2.3m/s
16:000%2m/s
17:000%0.72m/s
18:000%0.13m/s
19:000%1m/s
20:000%0.65m/s
21:000%0.81m/s
22:000%1.9m/s
23:000%3.6m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%3.1m/s
01:000%3.1m/s
02:000%3.8m/s
03:000%3m/s
04:000%3.4m/s
05:000%4.2m/s
06:000%4.4m/s
07:000%4.2m/s
08:000%4.3m/s
09:000%4.1m/s
10:000%3.7m/s
11:000%4.1m/s
12:000%3.9m/s
13:000%1.8m/s
14:000%4.1m/s
15:000%3.9m/s
16:000%5.7m/s
17:000%7.3m/s
18:000%7m/s
19:000%6m/s
20:000%3.9m/s
21:000%2.6m/s
22:000%2.8m/s
23:000%1.4m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%0.68m/s
01:000%0.54m/s
02:000%0.57m/s
03:000%0.63m/s
04:000%0.47m/s
05:000%1.7m/s
06:000%1.9m/s
07:000%1.1m/s
08:000%0.78m/s
09:000%1.9m/s
10:000%2.6m/s
11:000%2.9m/s
12:000%3.1m/s
13:000%3.3m/s
14:000%3.6m/s
15:000%2.8m/s
16:000%2m/s
17:000%1.2m/s
18:000%1.2m/s
19:000%1.2m/s
20:000%1.1m/s
21:000%0.92m/s
22:000%0.71m/s
23:000%0.5m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%0.79m/s
01:000%1.1m/s
02:000%1.4m/s
03:000%1.7m/s
04:000%2.1m/s
05:000%2.4m/s
06:000%3m/s
07:000%3.7m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
America/New_York
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 05:16 Sunset 20:38
10:00
16°C 9726°C 20°C - 56% 0.56kPa
11:00
16°C 9726°C 21°C - 26% 0.67kPa
12:00
17°C 9726°C 22°C - 99% 0.75kPa
13:00
18°C 9726°C 23°C - 96% 0.8kPa
14:00
18°C 9726°C 24°C - 34% 0.91kPa
15:00
18°C 9726°C 25°C - 92% 1kPa
16:00
19°C 9726°C 25°C - 55% 1.1kPa
17:00
19°C 9726°C 26°C - 5% 1kPa
18:00
20°C 9726°C 26°C - 9% 0.97kPa
19:00
20°C 9726°C 25°C - 6% 0.86kPa
20:00
20°C 9726°C 24°C - 66% 0.73kPa
21:00
19°C 9726°C 23°C - 89% 0.66kPa
22:00
19°C 9726°C 23°C - 100% 0.65kPa
23:00
18°C 9726°C 22°C - 98% 0.54kPa
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 05:17 Sunset 20:38
24:00
18°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.44kPa
01:00
18°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.43kPa
02:00
17°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.4kPa
03:00
17°C 9726°C 19°C - 51% 0.38kPa
04:00
17°C 9726°C 19°C - 6% 0.35kPa
05:00
17°C 9726°C 19°C - 16% 0.3kPa
06:00
17°C 9726°C 19°C - 5% 0.28kPa
07:00
17°C 9726°C 19°C - 5% 0.33kPa
08:00
17°C 9726°C 20°C - 67% 0.38kPa
09:00
18°C 9726°C 21°C - 0% 0.45kPa
10:00
18°C 9726°C 22°C - 61% 0.56kPa
11:00
19°C 9726°C 23°C - 69% 0.68kPa
12:00
19°C 9726°C 25°C - 18% 0.86kPa
13:00
20°C 9726°C 25°C - 88% 0.98kPa
14:00
20°C 9726°C 23°C - 100% 0.49kPa
15:00
20°C 9726°C 22°C - 96% 0.39kPa
16:00
20°C 9726°C 23°C - 18% 0.4kPa
17:00
21°C 9726°C 23°C - 87% 0.43kPa
18:00
20°C 9726°C 22°C - 74% 0.35kPa
19:00
20°C 9726°C 22°C - 99% 0.36kPa
20:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.34kPa
21:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.32kPa
22:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.32kPa
23:00
18°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.29kPa
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 05:18 Sunset 20:37
24:00
18°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.3kPa
01:00
18°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.24kPa
02:00
19°C 9726°C 20°C - 87% 0.16kPa
03:00
19°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.18kPa
04:00
18°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.19kPa
05:00
19°C 9726°C 20°C - 94% 0.18kPa
06:00
19°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.18kPa
07:00
19°C 9726°C 20°C - 100% 0.2kPa
08:00
19°C 9726°C 20°C - 94% 0.24kPa
09:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.29kPa
10:00
19°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.34kPa
11:00
18°C 9726°C 21°C - 100% 0.45kPa
12:00
18°C 9726°C 22°C - 100% 0.6kPa
13:00
18°C 9726°C 23°C - 100% 0.78kPa
14:00
18°C 9726°C 23°C - 100% 0.85kPa
15:00
17°C 6490°C 21°C - 67% 0.57kPa
16:00
16°C 3254°C 19°C - 33% 0.34kPa
17:00
15°C 18°C 16°C - 0% 0.17kPa
18:00
15°C 18°C 16°C - 5% 0.15kPa
19:00
14°C 18°C 16°C - 10% 0.14kPa
20:00
14°C 18°C 15°C - 14% 0.13kPa
21:00
14°C 18°C 15°C - 26% 0.11kPa
22:00
14°C 18°C 15°C - 37% 0.1kPa
23:00
14°C 17°C 15°C - 48% 0.08kPa
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 05:19 Sunset 20:37
24:00
14°C 17°C 15°C - 63% 0.14kPa
01:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 78% 0.2kPa
02:00
14°C 17°C 17°C - 93% 0.27kPa
03:00
14°C 17°C 19°C - 94% 0.55kPa
04:00
13°C 17°C 21°C - 94% 0.9kPa
05:00
12°C 17°C 23°C - 95% 1.3kPa
06:00
11°C 17°C 23°C - 95% 1.5kPa
07:00
10°C 17°C 24°C - 96% 1.7kPa
08:00
9.4°C 17°C 24°C - 96% 1.9kPa
09:00
9.9°C 18°C 24°C - 64% 1.8kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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