Rule
Northern Lights
Northern Lights Forecast for Mývatn, Iceland
Reykjahlíð, Northeast, Iceland
Mývatn surrounds shallow water with pseudocraters, lava pillars, and distant volcanic ridges. Geothermal steam adds moving layers, while snow makes the dark volcanic forms especially graphic in winter.
0 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.
Hourly forecast scores
Forecast valid from Oct 7, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC (one hour; not an observation)Kp IndexKp 3
Sun Elevation-26.8°
Cloud Cover7%
Upcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
Times shown in Atlantic/Reykjavik
No matching opportunities in this 14-day forecast
See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.
72-hour requirements breakdown
When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 72-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Atlantic/Reykjavik.
Most common blockers
Ranked across the 95-hour forecast horizon, not the full opportunity period.
- Aurora Quality100% of hours
- Total Cloud Coverage96% of hours
- Aurora Activity88% of hours
0matching hours in the displayed 72-hour forecast
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time Atlantic/Reykjavik | Aurora Quality ≥ 50.0% | Solar Elevation ≤ -8.0° | Aurora Activity ≥ 50.0% | Total Cloud Coverage ≤ 30.0% | Visibility ≥ 8000.0m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 7 | |||||
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -27°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 37%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 7%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 18280m. Meets requirement |
| Thu, Oct 8 | |||||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -29°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 37%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 8%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -30°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 37%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 8%. Meets requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -29°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 97%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 21980m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -26°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -22°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -17°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -11°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -4.8°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 1.5°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 6.9°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 12°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 35520m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 15°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 18°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 18°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 14920m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 17°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 25960m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 15°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 11°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 5.9°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 0.53°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -6°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 28300m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -12°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -18°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 96%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -23°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 24240m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -27°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 3.4%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 19220m. Meets requirement |
| Fri, Oct 9 | |||||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -30°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 19080m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -31°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 12700m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -29°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 5.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 10060m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -27°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 27460m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -22°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 11340m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -17°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 15600m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -11°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 14660m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -5.2°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 8600m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 1.2°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 15120m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 6.6°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 16820m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 11°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 17140m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 15°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 100%. Meets requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 17260m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 17°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 47%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 3660m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 18°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 47%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 3860m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 17°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 47%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 2480m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 14°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 23%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 2560m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 11°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 23%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 4620m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 5.6°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 23%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 4140m. Misses requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 0.21°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 23%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 19180m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -6.4°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 23%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 78%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 27800m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -13°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 23%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 26880m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -18°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 47%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 19440m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -24°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 47%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 22100m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 23:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -28°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 47%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 28560m. Meets requirement |
| Sat, Oct 10 | |||||
| Rule fails. 24:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -30°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 93%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 28340m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 01:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -31°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 50000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 02:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -30°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 19980m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 03:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -27°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 18515m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 04:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -23°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 20720m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 05:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -18°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 99%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 16100m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 06:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -12°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 15100m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 07:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -5.5°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 17860m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 08:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 0.93°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 23060m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 09:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 6.3°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 100%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 13140m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 10:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 11°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 95%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 13940m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 11:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 15°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 95%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 21620m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 12:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 17°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 97%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 51000m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 13:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 18°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 57%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 57260m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 14:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 17°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 42%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 57240m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 15:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 14°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 46%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 57340m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 16:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 10°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 84%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 61620m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 17:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: 5.2°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 88%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 27820m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 18:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -0.21°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 88%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 57500m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 19:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -6.8°. Misses requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 76%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 57460m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 20:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -13°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 82%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 57520m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 21:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -19°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 66%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 57660m. Meets requirement |
| Rule fails. 22:00 | Aurora Quality: 0%. Misses requirement | Solar Elevation: -24°. Meets requirement | Aurora Activity: 8.7%. Misses requirement | Total Cloud Coverage: 77%. Misses requirement | Visibility: 52380m. Meets requirement |
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).
Supporting forecast inputs
Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.
Supporting inputs are unavailable for the displayed forecast period.
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Northern Lights conditions across Iceland. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Mývatn.
Explore Northern Lights conditions across Iceland →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Mývatn during the last 365 days.
Last 30 days
3
recorded matching windows · 72% average confidence
Last 90 days
10
recorded matching windows · 67% average confidence
Last 365 days
38
recorded matching windows · 67% average confidence
Most frequent recorded start hour
01:00 local time, shared by 10 of 38 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
Most represented month
January, with 11 of 38 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
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How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
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