Northern Lights Forecast for Jökulsárlón Glacier Lagoon, Iceland
Jökulsárlón holds drifting blue and white ice beneath Vatnajökull’s outlet glaciers. Changing ice shapes, reflections, dark moraine shores, and the narrow channel toward Diamond Beach continually alter the composition.
Currently
Real-time conditionsUpcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Northern Lights conditions across Iceland. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Jökulsárlón Glacier Lagoon.
Explore Northern Lights conditions across Iceland →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Jökulsárlón Glacier Lagoon during the last 365 days.
22:00 local time, shared by 5 of 29 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
March, with 10 of 29 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
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95-hour requirements breakdown
When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.
Time Atlantic/Reykjavik | Aurora Quality ≥ 50.0% | Solar Elevation ≤ -8.0° | Aurora Activity ≥ 50.0% | Total Cloud Coverage ≤ 30.0% | Visibility ≥ 8000.0m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Aug 15 | |||||
| 03:00 | 0% | -9° | 28% | 76% | 24134m |
| 04:00 | 0% | -5.3° | 26% | 99% | 14998m |
| 05:00 | 0% | 0.06° | 0% | 100% | 13475m |
| 06:00 | 0% | 5.4° | 0% | 100% | 9658m |
| 07:00 | 0% | 12° | 0% | 100% | 8776m |
| 08:00 | 0% | 18° | 20% | 100% | 8625m |
| 09:00 | 0% | 25° | 20% | 100% | 7906m |
| 10:00 | 0% | 30° | 0% | 100% | 2675m |
| 11:00 | 0% | 35° | 0% | 100% | 2089m |
| 12:00 | 0% | 38° | 0% | 98% | 5025m |
| 13:00 | 0% | 40° | 11% | 94% | 8802m |
| 14:00 | 0% | 39° | 11% | 96% | 1948m |
| 15:00 | 0% | 36° | 15% | 97% | 1908m |
| 16:00 | 0% | 32° | 15% | 95% | 1847m |
| 17:00 | 0% | 26° | 18% | 90% | 1849m |
| 18:00 | 0% | 20° | 20% | 59% | 8629m |
| 19:00 | 0% | 14° | 24% | 63% | 9680m |
| 20:00 | 0% | 7.1° | 28% | 35% | 11875m |
| 21:00 | 0% | 1.4° | 30% | 44% | 21722m |
| 22:00 | 0% | -4.1° | 30% | 56% | 24135m |
| 23:00 | 16% | -8.2° | 28% | 56% | 24135m |
| Sun, Aug 16 | |||||
| 24:00 | 14% | -11° | 28% | 50% | 24135m |
| 01:00 | 0% | -12° | 28% | 55% | 24135m |
| 02:00 | 15% | -12° | 27% | 52% | 24134m |
| 03:00 | 0% | -9.3° | 27% | 47% | 24135m |
| 04:00 | 0% | -5.6° | 2.9% | 47% | 24135m |
| 05:00 | 0% | -0.35° | 2.9% | 47% | 24135m |
| 06:00 | 0% | 5.1° | 4.9% | 49% | 24135m |
| 07:00 | 0% | 11° | 4.9% | 49% | 24134m |
| 08:00 | 0% | 18° | 4.9% | 50% | 24135m |
| 09:00 | 0% | 24° | 2.9% | 49% | 24135m |
| 10:00 | 0% | 30° | 2.9% | 57% | 23601m |
| 11:00 | 0% | 35° | 2.9% | 52% | 11880m |
| 12:00 | 0% | 38° | 2.9% | 36% | 11340m |
| 13:00 | 0% | 40° | 2.9% | 32% | 11342m |
| 14:00 | 0% | 39° | 2.9% | 34% | 11403m |
| 15:00 | 0% | 36° | 2.9% | 33% | 12530m |
| 16:00 | 0% | 32° | 2.9% | 30% | 20215m |
| 17:00 | 0% | 26° | 2.9% | 26% | 24134m |
| 18:00 | 0% | 20° | 4.9% | 16% | 24134m |
| 19:00 | 0% | 13° | 4.9% | 13% | 24134m |
| 20:00 | 0% | 6.8° | 4.9% | 13% | 24134m |
| 21:00 | 0% | 1.1° | 4.9% | 16% | 24135m |
| 22:00 | 0% | -4.4° | 4.9% | 29% | 24134m |
| 23:00 | 0% | -8.6° | 4.9% | 53% | 24135m |
| Mon, Aug 17 | |||||
| 24:00 | 0% | -11° | 7.6% | 50% | 24134m |
| 01:00 | 0% | -12° | 7.6% | 47% | 24134m |
| 02:00 | 0% | -12° | 7.6% | 49% | 24135m |
| 03:00 | 0% | -9.6° | 20% | 49% | 24134m |
| 04:00 | 0% | -5.9° | 20% | 53% | 24135m |
| 05:00 | 0% | -0.74° | 20% | 70% | 24135m |
| 06:00 | 0% | 4.9° | 15% | 70% | 24135m |
| 07:00 | 0% | 11° | 15% | 97% | 24134m |
| 08:00 | 0% | 18° | 15% | 73% | 12475m |
| 09:00 | 0% | 24° | 42% | 67% | 11992m |
| 10:00 | 0% | 30° | 42% | 100% | 11564m |
| 11:00 | 0% | 35° | 42% | 100% | 11488m |
| 12:00 | 0% | 38° | 20% | 100% | 11420m |
| 13:00 | 0% | 39° | 20% | 100% | 11511m |
| 14:00 | 0% | 38° | 20% | 100% | 11507m |
| 15:00 | 0% | 36° | 20% | 100% | 11533m |
| 16:00 | 0% | 31° | 20% | 100% | 11554m |
| 17:00 | 0% | 26° | 20% | 100% | 11564m |
| 18:00 | 0% | 19° | 15% | 100% | 11618m |
| 19:00 | 0% | 13° | 15% | 100% | 11594m |
| 20:00 | 0% | 6.5° | 15% | 100% | 11666m |
| 21:00 | 0% | 0.83° | 20% | 100% | 11887m |
| 22:00 | 0% | -4.7° | 20% | 100% | 13141m |
| 23:00 | 0% | -8.9° | 20% | 100% | 24135m |
| Tue, Aug 18 | |||||
| 24:00 | 0% | -12° | 15% | 100% | 24134m |
| 01:00 | 0% | -13° | 15% | 100% | 24134m |
| 02:00 | 0% | -12° | 15% | 100% | 24135m |
| 03:00 | 0% | -9.9° | 42% | 100% | 24135m |
| 04:00 | 0% | -6.2° | 42% | 100% | 24135m |
| 05:00 | 0% | -1.1° | 42% | 100% | 24135m |
| 06:00 | 0% | 4.6° | 20% | 100% | 24135m |
| 07:00 | 0% | 11° | 20% | 100% | 11799m |
| 08:00 | 0% | 17° | 20% | 100% | 2536m |
| 09:00 | 0% | 24° | 15% | 100% | 8770m |
| 10:00 | 0% | 30° | 15% | 100% | 11622m |
| 11:00 | 0% | 34° | 15% | 100% | 11567m |
| 12:00 | 0% | 38° | 15% | 100% | 11562m |
| 13:00 | 0% | 39° | 15% | 69% | 15753m |
| 14:00 | 0% | 38° | 15% | 38% | 19944m |
| 15:00 | 0% | 35° | 7.6% | 6.4% | 24135m |
| 16:00 | 0% | 31° | 7.6% | 6.3% | 24135m |
| 17:00 | 0% | 25° | 7.6% | 6.2% | 24135m |
| 18:00 | 0% | 19° | 1.5% | 6.1% | 24135m |
| 19:00 | 0% | 13° | 1.5% | 6.3% | 24135m |
| 20:00 | 0% | 6.2° | 1.5% | 6.5% | 24135m |
| 21:00 | 0% | 0.55° | 7.6% | 6.7% | 24135m |
| 22:00 | 0% | -5.1° | 7.6% | 5.8% | 24135m |
| 23:00 | 28% | -9.2° | 7.6% | 4.9% | 24135m |
| Wed, Aug 19 | |||||
| 24:00 | 95% | -12° | 100% | 4% | 24135m |
| 01:00 | 95% | -13° | 100% | 4.1% | 24135m |
How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
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