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Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Reynisfjara, Iceland Coast

Vik, South, Iceland

Reynisfjara combines black sand, hexagonal basalt columns, a sea cave, and the Reynisdrangar stacks beneath powerful North Atlantic surf.

Currently

Real-time conditions
Storm Intensity
0%
CAPE0
Lifted Index11.8°C
Wind Gusts10.2m/s
Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Atlantic/Reykjavik
Next opportunity
Moderate Storm
Reynisfjara
Sat, Aug 22 · 17:00–19:00 · 2h window
Low confidence
21%
⛈️Storm Intensity42-57%
CAPE: 14
Lifted Index: 8.3°C
Wind Gusts: 10.4m/s
Precipitation: 5.9mm
thunderstorms weather icon
Weak Storm at Sunset
Reynisfjara
Sat, Aug 22 · 19:00–22:00
⛈️Storm Intensity:47-51%
Low
thunderstorms weather icon
Weak Storm at Dusk
Reynisfjara
Sat, Aug 22 · 22:00–23:00
⛈️Storm Intensity:49%
Low
thunderstorms weather icon
Weak Storm
Reynisfjara
Sat, Aug 22 · 23:00–04:00
⛈️Storm Intensity:40-52%
Low
thunderstorms weather icon
Weak Storm at Dawn
Reynisfjara
Sun, Aug 23 · 04:00–05:00
⛈️Storm Intensity:42%
Low
thunderstorms weather icon
Weak Storm at Sunrise
Reynisfjara
Sun, Aug 23 · 05:00–07:00
⛈️Storm Intensity:47-49%
Low
thunderstorms weather icon
Moderate Storm
Reynisfjara
Sun, Aug 23 · 07:00–19:00
⛈️Storm Intensity:45-59%
Low
+13 more windows in the next 14 days

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Iceland Coast. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Reynisfjara.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Iceland Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Reynisfjara during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days
26
recorded matching windows · 54% average confidence
Last 90 days
26
recorded matching windows · 54% average confidence
Last 365 days
26
recorded matching windows · 54% average confidence
Most represented month

August, with 19 of 26 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Atlantic/Reykjavik
Storm Intensity
≥ 40.0%
Mon, Aug 17
07:0033%
08:0035%
09:0037%
10:0034%
11:0033%
12:0039%
13:0037%
14:0035%
15:0035%
16:0033%
17:0033%
18:0038%
19:0033%
20:0031%
21:0031%
22:0031%
23:0031%
Tue, Aug 18
24:0033%
01:0018%
02:0028%
03:0030%
04:0030%
05:0019%
06:000%
07:000%
08:000%
09:000%
10:000%
11:000%
12:000%
13:000%
14:000%
15:000%
16:000%
17:000%
18:000%
19:000%
20:000%
21:000%
22:000%
23:000%
Wed, Aug 19
24:0012%
01:000%
02:000%
03:0013%
04:000%
05:000%
06:0013%
07:000%
08:000%
09:0013%
10:000%
11:000%
12:0013%
13:000%
14:000%
15:0013%
16:000%
17:000%
18:0012%
19:000%
20:000%
21:000%
22:000%
23:000%
Thu, Aug 20
24:000%
01:000%
02:000%
03:000%
04:000%
05:000%
06:000%
07:000%
08:000%
09:000%
10:000%
11:000%
12:000%
13:000%
14:000%
15:000%
16:000%
17:000%
18:000%
19:000%
20:000%
21:000%
22:000%
23:000%
Fri, Aug 21
24:000%
01:000%
02:000%
03:000%
04:000%
05:000%
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Atlantic/Reykjavik
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
Convective Precip Fraction
fraction
Lifted Index
°C
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Total Precipitation
mm
Visibility
m
Wind Gusts
m/s
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Tue, Aug 18 Sunrise 05:21 Sunset 21:16
08:00
962hPa 0J/kg 0.03fraction 12°C 19% 0mm 0mm -14dBZ 0mm 24135m 10m/s - - 6.8m/s
09:00
962hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 12°C 29% 0mm 0mm -15dBZ 0mm 24135m 9.3m/s 1.8m/s 3m/s 6.5m/s
10:00
963hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 12°C 32% 0mm 0mm -17dBZ 0mm 24134m 8.7m/s - - 6.8m/s
11:00
963hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 12°C 36% 0mm 0mm -18dBZ 0mm 24134m 8.1m/s - - 6.8m/s
12:00
964hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 11°C 39% 0.01mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 7.4m/s 0.5m/s 4.6m/s 6.6m/s
13:00
964hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 11°C 26% 0mm 0.01mm -14dBZ 0mm 24134m 6.2m/s - - 6m/s
14:00
964hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 11°C 13% 0mm 0mm -8.6dBZ 0mm 24135m 5.3m/s - - 5.7m/s
15:00
964hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 11°C 0% 0mm 0mm -2.8dBZ 0mm 24135m 5.1m/s 1.7m/s 5.7m/s 5.4m/s
16:00
964hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 9.7°C 0% 0mm 0mm -8.6dBZ 0mm 24134m 4.6m/s - - 4.8m/s
17:00
965hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 9.1°C 0% 0mm 0mm -14dBZ 0mm 24135m 4.1m/s - - 4.6m/s
18:00
965hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 8.7°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.4m/s 4.1m/s 6.5m/s 3.9m/s
19:00
966hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 8.5°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 2.7m/s - - 2.8m/s
20:00
966hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 8.2°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 2.1m/s - - 1.3m/s
21:00
967hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.8°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 0.8m/s 8.6m/s 8.2m/s 0.63m/s
22:00 ☾
967hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.5°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 0.8m/s - - 0.7m/s
23:00 ☾
968hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.2°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 0.8m/s - - 0.46m/s
Wed, Aug 19 Sunrise 05:24 Sunset 21:13
24:00 ☾
968hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 6.8°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 0.9m/s 8.9m/s 10m/s 0.45m/s
01:00 ☾
968hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 6.9°C 0% 0.02mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 0.92m/s - - 0.6m/s
02:00 ☾
968hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 6.8°C 0% 0.01mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 1.1m/s - - 1.1m/s
03:00 ☾
968hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.8°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 1.5m/s 8.1m/s 11m/s 1.4m/s
04:00 ☾
968hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.8°C 7% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 1.4m/s - - 1.4m/s
05:00 ☾
968hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.7°C 15% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 1.4m/s - - 1.4m/s
06:00
968hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.2°C 22% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 1.2m/s 7.2m/s 11m/s 1.1m/s
07:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.1°C 15% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 1.2m/s - - 1.1m/s
08:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.3°C 7% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 1.6m/s - - 1.6m/s
09:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.3°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 1.7m/s 6.7m/s 11m/s 1.7m/s
10:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.2°C 13% 0mm 0mm -16dBZ 0mm 24134m 1.8m/s - - 1.9m/s
11:00
969hPa 5J/kg 0fraction 6.8°C 26% 0mm 0.02mm -12dBZ 0mm 24134m 2m/s - - 2.1m/s
12:00
969hPa 7J/kg 0fraction 6.7°C 39% 0mm 0.02mm -8.2dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.3m/s 6.1m/s 11m/s 2.3m/s
13:00
970hPa 8J/kg 0fraction 6.5°C 26% 0mm 0.03mm -9.7dBZ 0mm 24134m 2.4m/s - - 2.5m/s
14:00
970hPa 6J/kg 0fraction 6.3°C 13% 0mm 0.01mm -11dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.4m/s - - 2.6m/s
15:00
970hPa 5J/kg 0fraction 6.3°C 0% 0mm 0.01mm -13dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 2.8m/s 5.3m/s 11m/s 3m/s
16:00
970hPa 3J/kg 0fraction 6.4°C 0% 0mm 0mm -15dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 3.4m/s - - 3.6m/s
17:00
969hPa 2J/kg 0fraction 6.4°C 0% 0mm 0.01mm -18dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 2.7m/s - - 2.2m/s
18:00
969hPa 2J/kg 0fraction 6.4°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 2.2m/s 4.3m/s 10m/s 1.9m/s
19:00
970hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 6.4°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 1.9m/s - - 1.7m/s
20:00
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.5°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 1.8m/s - - 1.9m/s
21:00
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.7°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 2m/s 3.5m/s 9m/s 2.1m/s
22:00 ☾
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.9°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.2m/s - - 2.3m/s
23:00 ☾
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.1°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 2.4m/s - - 2.6m/s
Thu, Aug 20 Sunrise 05:27 Sunset 21:10
24:00 ☾
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.2°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.5m/s 3m/s 6.5m/s 2.7m/s
01:00 ☾
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.1°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.5m/s - - 2.8m/s
02:00 ☾
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.2°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.5m/s - - 2.7m/s
03:00 ☾
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.3°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 2.4m/s 2.7m/s 5.6m/s 2.6m/s
04:00 ☾
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.3°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 2.3m/s - - 2.5m/s
05:00 ☾
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.5°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.3m/s - - 2.3m/s
06:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.6°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.3m/s 0.92m/s 2.8m/s 2.2m/s
07:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.8°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 2.2m/s - - 2m/s
08:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.9°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 2.1m/s - - 1.5m/s
09:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.9°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 1.9m/s 2.2m/s 0.94m/s 1.3m/s
10:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.7°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 1.7m/s - - 1.2m/s
11:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7.2°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 1.7m/s - - 1.2m/s
12:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.7°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 1.8m/s 2.7m/s 1.1m/s 1.5m/s
13:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.6°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.7m/s - - 2.3m/s
14:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.6°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.5m/s - - 3.2m/s
15:00
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.5°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 4.3m/s 3.6m/s 2.7m/s 4m/s
16:00
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5.8°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 4.2m/s - - 3.9m/s
17:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5.1°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 4m/s - - 3.8m/s
18:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 4.5°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.8m/s 4m/s 3.8m/s 3.8m/s
19:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 4.7°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.8m/s - - 3.7m/s
20:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.8m/s - - 3.7m/s
21:00
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5.3°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.8m/s 5.2m/s 5.4m/s 3.6m/s
22:00 ☾
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5.6°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.7m/s - - 3.6m/s
23:00 ☾
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5.8°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.7m/s - - 3.5m/s
Fri, Aug 21 Sunrise 05:30 Sunset 21:06
24:00 ☾
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.6m/s 4.9m/s 5.3m/s 3.5m/s
01:00 ☾
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.2°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.4m/s - - 3.2m/s
02:00 ☾
969hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.4°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.1m/s - - 2.9m/s
03:00 ☾
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.6°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.9m/s 5.6m/s 6m/s 2.5m/s
04:00 ☾
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.3°C 7% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.1m/s - - 2.9m/s
05:00 ☾
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6°C 15% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.4m/s - - 3.3m/s
06:00
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5.7°C 22% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.7m/s 5.6m/s 3.7m/s 3.7m/s
07:00
970hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6°C 28% 0.003mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 4.3m/s - - 4.4m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →
Forecast generated

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