Rule
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser Forecast for Arnarstapi, Iceland Coast
Hellnar, West, Iceland
Arnarstapi’s eroded basalt coast forms arches, columned coves, and nesting ledges immediately below the village. The natural stone bridge at Gatklettur provides an intimate frame, while clear inland views rise to the ice-capped Snæfellsjökull cone.
Currently
Real-time conditionsCAPE0
Lifted Index7.6°C
Wind Gusts3.1m/s
Precipitation0.0mm
Upcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
Times shown in Atlantic/Reykjavik
Next opportunity
Weak Storm
Arnarstapi
Tomorrow · 15:00–17:00 · 2h window
Low confidence
30%
⛈️Storm Intensity40-46%
CAPE: 2
Lifted Index: 6.8°C
Wind Gusts: 15.1m/s
Precipitation: 1.6mm
Weak Storm
Arnarstapi
Tomorrow · 18:00–19:00
⛈️Storm Intensity:54%
Medium
Weak Storm
Arnarstapi
Wed, Aug 26 · 18:00–19:00
⛈️Storm Intensity:44%
Low
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Iceland Coast. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Arnarstapi.
Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Iceland Coast →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Arnarstapi during the last 365 days.
Last 30 days
13
recorded matching windows · 53% average confidence
Last 90 days
22
recorded matching windows · 54% average confidence
Last 365 days
22
recorded matching windows · 54% average confidence
Most frequent recorded start hour
21:00 local time, shared by 4 of 22 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
Most represented month
August, with 13 of 22 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
Create your own Storm Chaser alerts
Get notified when these conditions match at your own locations.
86-hour requirements breakdown
When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 86-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time Atlantic/Reykjavik | Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0% |
|---|---|
| Sun, Aug 23 | |
| 04:00 | 29% |
| 05:00 | 29% |
| 06:00 | 34% |
| 07:00 | 28% |
| 08:00 | 27% |
| 09:00 | 29% |
| 10:00 | 22% |
| 11:00 | 20% |
| 12:00 | 22% |
| 13:00 | 14% |
| 14:00 | 0% |
| 15:00 | 11% |
| 16:00 | 0% |
| 17:00 | 0% |
| 18:00 | 0% |
| 19:00 | 0% |
| 20:00 | 0% |
| 21:00 | 0% |
| 22:00 | 0% |
| 23:00 | 0% |
| Mon, Aug 24 | |
| 24:00 | 9.8% |
| 01:00 | 0% |
| 02:00 | 0% |
| 03:00 | 12% |
| 04:00 | 0% |
| 05:00 | 0% |
| 06:00 | 12% |
| 07:00 | 0% |
| 08:00 | 17% |
| 09:00 | 26% |
| 10:00 | 23% |
| 11:00 | 23% |
| 12:00 | 33% |
| 13:00 | 26% |
| 14:00 | 28% |
| 15:00 | 46% |
| 16:00 | 40% |
| 17:00 | 38% |
| 18:00 | 54% |
| 19:00 | 34% |
| 20:00 | 34% |
| 21:00 | 34% |
| 22:00 | 32% |
| 23:00 | 31% |
| Tue, Aug 25 | |
| 24:00 | 35% |
| 01:00 | 24% |
| 02:00 | 14% |
| 03:00 | 18% |
| 04:00 | 20% |
| 05:00 | 28% |
| 06:00 | 27% |
| 07:00 | 0% |
| 08:00 | 20% |
| 09:00 | 21% |
| 10:00 | 19% |
| 11:00 | 18% |
| 12:00 | 22% |
| 13:00 | 0% |
| 14:00 | 0% |
| 15:00 | 0% |
| 16:00 | 0% |
| 17:00 | 0% |
| 18:00 | 0% |
| 19:00 | 0% |
| 20:00 | 10% |
| 21:00 | 14% |
| 22:00 | 10% |
| 23:00 | 0% |
| Wed, Aug 26 | |
| 24:00 | 0% |
| 01:00 | 0% |
| 02:00 | 0% |
| 03:00 | 0% |
| 04:00 | 0% |
| 05:00 | 0% |
| 06:00 | 16% |
| 07:00 | 0% |
| 08:00 | 0% |
| 09:00 | 21% |
| 10:00 | 19% |
| 11:00 | 20% |
| 12:00 | 31% |
| 13:00 | 25% |
| 14:00 | 25% |
| 15:00 | 31% |
| 16:00 | 30% |
| 17:00 | 32% |
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).
What does Storm Intensity mean?
Inputs that drive the scoreThis derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.
| Time Atlantic/Reykjavik | Air Pressure hPa | CAPE J/kg | Convective Precip Fraction fraction | Lifted Index °C | Precipitation Chance % | Rainfall mm | Showers mm | Simulated Reflectivity dBZ | Total Precipitation mm | Visibility m | Wind Gusts m/s | Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s | Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s | Wind Speed m/s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Aug 23
Sunrise 05:47
Sunset 21:24 | ||||||||||||||
| 20:00 | 1001hPa | 0J/kg | 0.02fraction | 7.6°C | 17% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 3.1m/s | - | - | 3.2m/s |
| 21:00 | 1002hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 5.5°C | 25% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 3.1m/s | 8.5m/s | 7.5m/s | 3m/s |
| 22:00
☾
| 1002hPa | 5J/kg | 0fraction | 5.2°C | 33% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 3.4m/s | - | - | 3.2m/s |
| 23:00
☾
| 1002hPa | 3J/kg | 0fraction | 6°C | 42% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24134m | 3.4m/s | - | - | 3.2m/s |
| Mon, Aug 24
Sunrise 05:50
Sunset 21:21 | ||||||||||||||
| 24:00
☾
| 1002hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 6.3°C | 50% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 2.9m/s | 3.8m/s | 13m/s | 3.1m/s |
| 01:00
☾
| 1002hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 6.7°C | 38% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 2.8m/s | - | - | 2.8m/s |
| 02:00
☾
| 1002hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 6.9°C | 25% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24134m | 3.4m/s | - | - | 3.4m/s |
| 03:00
☾
| 1001hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 7.2°C | 13% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24134m | 3.3m/s | 7.5m/s | 19m/s | 3.3m/s |
| 04:00
☾
| 1001hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 7.4°C | 22% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24134m | 3.3m/s | - | - | 3.3m/s |
| 05:00
☾
| 1001hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 6.5°C | 32% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24134m | 3.9m/s | - | - | 3.7m/s |
| 06:00 | 1000hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 7.1°C | 41% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 5.6m/s | 7.6m/s | 19m/s | 5m/s |
| 07:00 | 999hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 8°C | 54% | 0mm | 0mm | -9.3dBZ | 0mm | 24134m | 7.3m/s | - | - | 6.1m/s |
| 08:00 | 999hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 8.4°C | 67% | 0mm | 0mm | 1.4dBZ | 0mm | 24134m | 7.9m/s | - | - | 6.5m/s |
| 09:00 | 998hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 8.5°C | 80% | 0mm | 0mm | 12dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 8.8m/s | 7m/s | 17m/s | 7.4m/s |
| 10:00 | 998hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 9.5°C | 83% | 0mm | 0mm | 16dBZ | 0mm | 24134m | 9.2m/s | - | - | 8.1m/s |
| 11:00 | 997hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 9.2°C | 87% | 0mm | 0mm | 19dBZ | 0mm | 24134m | 9.8m/s | - | - | 8.4m/s |
| 12:00 | 997hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 7.9°C | 90% | 0mm | 0mm | 23dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 11m/s | 3.9m/s | 20m/s | 9m/s |
| 13:00 | 996hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 7.2°C | 86% | 0.1mm | 0mm | 25dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 12m/s | - | - | 10m/s |
| 14:00 | 995hPa | 2J/kg | 0fraction | 6.7°C | 82% | 0.47mm | 0mm | 28dBZ | 0.56mm | 19483m | 15m/s | - | - | 11m/s |
| 15:00 | 994hPa | 2J/kg | 0.002fraction | 6.8°C | 79% | 1.6mm | 0mm | 31dBZ | 1.6mm | 8265m | 15m/s | 13m/s | 20m/s | 12m/s |
| 16:00 | 994hPa | 2J/kg | 0fraction | 6.9°C | 80% | 2mm | 0mm | 29dBZ | 3.7mm | 8385m | 15m/s | - | - | 12m/s |
| 17:00 | 994hPa | 1J/kg | 0fraction | 5.8°C | 81% | 0.92mm | 0mm | 28dBZ | 4.8mm | 11430m | 17m/s | - | - | 13m/s |
| 18:00 | 994hPa | 2J/kg | 0fraction | 5.7°C | 82% | 1.3mm | 0mm | 27dBZ | 6mm | 8259m | 18m/s | 17m/s | 18m/s | 13m/s |
| 19:00 | 993hPa | 2J/kg | 0fraction | 5.7°C | 74% | 1.4mm | 0mm | 24dBZ | 1.4mm | 8892m | 19m/s | - | - | 15m/s |
| 20:00 | 993hPa | 2J/kg | 0fraction | 4.7°C | 67% | 0.78mm | 0mm | 20dBZ | 2.6mm | 14496m | 20m/s | - | - | 17m/s |
| 21:00 | 994hPa | 4J/kg | 0.004fraction | 3.4°C | 60% | 0.78mm | 0mm | 17dBZ | 3.3mm | 11313m | 19m/s | 8m/s | 9.9m/s | 16m/s |
| 22:00
☾
| 994hPa | 3J/kg | 0.01fraction | 4°C | 62% | 0.55mm | 0mm | 20dBZ | 4.1mm | 15198m | 16m/s | - | - | 13m/s |
| 23:00
☾
| 994hPa | 1J/kg | 0.02fraction | 4.3°C | 64% | 0.33mm | 0mm | 22dBZ | 4.4mm | 23378m | 10m/s | - | - | 9.6m/s |
| Tue, Aug 25
Sunrise 05:53
Sunset 21:17 | ||||||||||||||
| 24:00
☾
| 995hPa | 1J/kg | 0.02fraction | 4°C | 66% | 0.18mm | 0mm | 25dBZ | 4.7mm | 24135m | 9.7m/s | 12m/s | 9.5m/s | 9.2m/s |
| 01:00
☾
| 995hPa | 1J/kg | 0.05fraction | 4°C | 62% | 0.56mm | 0mm | 22dBZ | 0.25mm | 18177m | 8.7m/s | - | - | 8.5m/s |
| 02:00
☾
| 996hPa | 3J/kg | 0.07fraction | 4°C | 57% | 2mm | 0mm | 19dBZ | 1.8mm | 6581m | 5.7m/s | - | - | 5.4m/s |
| 03:00
☾
| 997hPa | 3J/kg | 0.1fraction | 4.7°C | 52% | 3.1mm | 0mm | 16dBZ | 4.6mm | 5200m | 3.5m/s | 4.3m/s | 7.8m/s | 3.6m/s |
| 04:00
☾
| 998hPa | 2J/kg | 0.09fraction | 6°C | 57% | 2.3mm | 0mm | 16dBZ | 7.4mm | 6969m | 3.2m/s | - | - | 3.2m/s |
| 05:00
☾
| 998hPa | 1J/kg | 0.08fraction | 7°C | 62% | 0.67mm | 0mm | 15dBZ | 8.6mm | 12763m | 2m/s | - | - | 1.8m/s |
| 06:00 | 999hPa | 1J/kg | 0.07fraction | 7.1°C | 67% | 0.3mm | 0mm | 15dBZ | 9mm | 23665m | 2.9m/s | 5m/s | 5m/s | 2.9m/s |
| 07:00 | 1000hPa | 1J/kg | 0.25fraction | 7°C | 55% | 0.11mm | 0.01mm | 14dBZ | 0.19mm | 24135m | 5.1m/s | - | - | 5m/s |
| 08:00 | 1001hPa | 1J/kg | 0.44fraction | 7.6°C | 42% | 0.19mm | 0.04mm | 13dBZ | 0.38mm | 21492m | 6.8m/s | - | - | 5.7m/s |
| 09:00 | 1002hPa | 1J/kg | 0.62fraction | 8.2°C | 30% | 0.06mm | 0.07mm | 12dBZ | 0.56mm | 24134m | 7.8m/s | 7.1m/s | 3.6m/s | 7.4m/s |
| 10:00 | 1002hPa | 14J/kg | 0.55fraction | 8.3°C | 28% | 0.02mm | 0.07mm | 11dBZ | 0.63mm | 24135m | 7.6m/s | - | - | 6.8m/s |
| 11:00 | 1003hPa | 31J/kg | 0.49fraction | 7.6°C | 27% | 0.01mm | 0.14mm | 9.8dBZ | 0.75mm | 21404m | 7.8m/s | - | - | 6.6m/s |
| 12:00 | 1004hPa | 38J/kg | 0.42fraction | 7.4°C | 26% | 0mm | 0.26mm | 8.5dBZ | 0.94mm | 20216m | 8.5m/s | 8.7m/s | 11m/s | 7.6m/s |
| 13:00 | 1004hPa | 36J/kg | 0.28fraction | 7.4°C | 24% | 0mm | 0.28mm | 12dBZ | 0.25mm | 19812m | 7.9m/s | - | - | 6.8m/s |
| 14:00 | 1005hPa | 29J/kg | 0.14fraction | 7.4°C | 23% | 0mm | 0.21mm | 16dBZ | 0.5mm | 21471m | 7.4m/s | - | - | 6m/s |
| 15:00 | 1005hPa | 24J/kg | 0fraction | 7.3°C | 22% | 0mm | 0.15mm | 19dBZ | 0.63mm | 24066m | 6.3m/s | 9.9m/s | 14m/s | 4.4m/s |
| 16:00 | 1005hPa | 16J/kg | 0fraction | 7.3°C | 28% | 0mm | 0.09mm | 17dBZ | 0.75mm | 24135m | 5.2m/s | - | - | 3.4m/s |
| 17:00 | 1006hPa | 10J/kg | 0fraction | 7.1°C | 33% | 0mm | 0.04mm | 14dBZ | 0.81mm | 24135m | 4.1m/s | - | - | 3m/s |
| 18:00 | 1006hPa | 7J/kg | 0fraction | 6.9°C | 39% | 0mm | 0mm | 11dBZ | 0.81mm | 24134m | 3.4m/s | 8.4m/s | 17m/s | 3.2m/s |
| 19:00 | 1006hPa | 10J/kg | 0.25fraction | 6.7°C | 36% | 0mm | 0mm | 2.5dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 4m/s | - | - | 4m/s |
| 20:00 | 1007hPa | 9J/kg | 0.51fraction | 6.6°C | 33% | 0mm | 0mm | -6.1dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 3.8m/s | - | - | 4.2m/s |
| 21:00 | 1007hPa | 11J/kg | 0.76fraction | 6.2°C | 30% | 0mm | 0mm | -15dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 3.5m/s | 6m/s | 13m/s | 3.9m/s |
| 22:00
☾
| 1008hPa | 13J/kg | 0.51fraction | 6°C | 31% | 0mm | 0mm | -16dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 3.6m/s | - | - | 3.6m/s |
| 23:00
☾
| 1008hPa | 5J/kg | 0.25fraction | 6.4°C | 32% | 0mm | 0mm | -18dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 3.5m/s | - | - | 3.5m/s |
| Wed, Aug 26
Sunrise 05:56
Sunset 21:13 | ||||||||||||||
| 24:00
☾
| 1008hPa | 5J/kg | 0fraction | 6.3°C | 34% | 0mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0mm | 24135m | 3.4m/s | 6.8m/s | 14m/s | 3.4m/s |
| 01:00
☾
| 1009hPa | 3.3J/kg | 0fraction | 5.8°C | 28% | 0.12mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0.17mm | 21566m | 4.4m/s | - | - | 4.2m/s |
| 02:00
☾
| 1010hPa | 1.7J/kg | 0fraction | 5.3°C | 21% | 0.24mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0.33mm | 18996m | 5.4m/s | - | - | 5m/s |
| 03:00
☾
| 1010hPa | 0J/kg | 0fraction | 4.8°C | 15% | 0.36mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0.5mm | 16427m | 6.3m/s | 9.7m/s | 15m/s | 5.8m/s |
| 04:00
☾
| 1010hPa | 1J/kg | 0fraction | 4.4°C | 17% | 0.45mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 0.85mm | 15169m | 6.3m/s | - | - | 5.8m/s |
| 05:00
☾
| 1010hPa | 2J/kg | 0fraction | 4°C | 20% | 0.55mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 1.2mm | 13911m | 6.3m/s | - | - | 5.8m/s |
| 06:00 | 1011hPa | 3J/kg | 0fraction | 3.6°C | 23% | 0.64mm | 0mm | -20dBZ | 1.6mm | 12654m | 6.3m/s | 10m/s | 13m/s | 5.7m/s |
| 07:00 | 1010hPa | 2.7J/kg | 0fraction | 3.4°C | 26% | 0.55mm | 0.01mm | -5.4dBZ | 1.6mm | 15540m | 6m/s | - | - | 5.6m/s |
| 08:00 | 1010hPa | 2.3J/kg | 0fraction | 3.2°C | 30% | 0.47mm | 0.02mm | 9.1dBZ | 1.7mm | 18427m | 5.7m/s | - | - | 5.4m/s |
| 09:00 | 1010hPa | 2J/kg | 0.002fraction | 3°C | 34% | 0.38mm | 0.03mm | 24dBZ | 1.8mm | 21313m | 5.4m/s | 11m/s | 14m/s | 5.3m/s |
| 10:00 | 1010hPa | 1.7J/kg | 0fraction | 2.8°C | 36% | 0.54mm | 0.05mm | 25dBZ | 2.8mm | 15776m | 5.5m/s | - | - | 5.3m/s |
| 11:00 | 1010hPa | 1.3J/kg | 0fraction | 2.7°C | 39% | 0.69mm | 0.07mm | 26dBZ | 3.8mm | 10239m | 5.5m/s | - | - | 5.3m/s |
| 12:00 | 1010hPa | 1J/kg | 0.001fraction | 2.5°C | 41% | 0.85mm | 0.09mm | 27dBZ | 4.8mm | 4701m | 5.5m/s | 8.8m/s | 15m/s | 5.3m/s |
| 13:00 | 1010hPa | 5J/kg | 0.02fraction | 2.3°C | 46% | 1.3mm | 0.06mm | 25dBZ | 4.3mm | 4670m | 5.5m/s | - | - | 5.3m/s |
| 14:00 | 1010hPa | 9J/kg | 0.04fraction | 2.1°C | 51% | 1.7mm | 0.03mm | 24dBZ | 3.9mm | 4639m | 5.5m/s | - | - | 5.3m/s |
| 15:00 | 1010hPa | 13J/kg | 0.06fraction | 1.8°C | 56% | 2.1mm | 0mm | 22dBZ | 3.5mm | 4608m | 5.5m/s | 11m/s | 11m/s | 5.3m/s |
| 16:00 | 1010hPa | 10J/kg | 0.08fraction | 2.2°C | 60% | 2.3mm | 0mm | 23dBZ | 6.5mm | 3773m | 5.1m/s | - | - | 5m/s |
| 17:00 | 1010hPa | 7.7J/kg | 0.09fraction | 2.7°C | 64% | 2.5mm | 0mm | 24dBZ | 9.5mm | 2937m | 4.7m/s | - | - | 4.6m/s |
| 18:00 | 1009hPa | 5J/kg | 0.1fraction | 3.1°C | 68% | 2.7mm | 0mm | 25dBZ | 13mm | 2102m | 4.3m/s | 11m/s | 16m/s | 4.3m/s |
| 19:00 | 1009hPa | 6.3J/kg | 0.06fraction | 3.6°C | 57% | 1.8mm | 0mm | 27dBZ | 9mm | 4256m | 4m/s | - | - | 3.9m/s |
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.
How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
Forecast generated
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