Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Arnarstapi, Iceland Coast

Hellnar, West, Iceland

Arnarstapi’s eroded basalt coast forms arches, columned coves, and nesting ledges immediately below the village. The natural stone bridge at Gatklettur provides an intimate frame, while clear inland views rise to the ice-capped Snæfellsjökull cone.

13 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.

Hourly forecast scores

Forecast valid from Oct 9, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC (one hour; not an observation)

Storm Intensity

16%

CAPE0

Lifted Index5.3°C

Wind Gusts11.5m/s

Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Atlantic/Reykjavik

First upcoming window

Weak Storm

Arnarstapi

Mon, Oct 12 · 03:00–07:00 · 4h window

Low confidence

23%

⛈️Storm Intensity40-49%

CAPE: 0

Lifted Index: 6.3°C

Wind Gusts: 25.0m/s

Precipitation: 0.3mm

Weak Storm at Sunrise

Arnarstapi

Mon, Oct 12 · 07:00–08:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:42%

Low

Weak Storm at Sunrise

Arnarstapi

Mon, Oct 12 · 09:00–10:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:45%

Low

Weak Storm

Arnarstapi

Mon, Oct 12 · 10:00–11:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:40%

Low

Moderate Storm

Arnarstapi

Mon, Oct 12 · 12:00–17:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:43-58.8%

Low

Weak Storm at Sunset

Arnarstapi

Mon, Oct 12 · 17:00–18:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:49.3%

Low

Weak Storm at Dusk

Arnarstapi

Mon, Oct 12 · 19:00–20:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:46.7%

Low

+6 more windows in the next 14 days

72-hour requirements breakdown

When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 72-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Atlantic/Reykjavik.

Requirements breakdown is temporarily unavailable or expired. This does not mean no opportunities.

Supporting forecast inputs

Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.

Forecast time (Atlantic/Reykjavik)	Air Pressure	CAPE	Convective Precip Fraction	Lifted Index	Precipitation Chance	Rainfall	Showers	Simulated Reflectivity	Total Precipitation	Visibility	Wind Gusts	Wind Shear 0-3 km	Wind Shear 0-6 km	Wind Speed
Fri, Oct 9, 2026Sunrise 08:08 · Sunset 18:33
13:00	987hPa	0J/kg	0.4fraction	5.3°C	59%	0mm	0mm	12dBZ	0mm	27260m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	8.5m/s
14:00	988hPa	10J/kg	0.55fraction	5.7°C	63%	0mm	0mm	9.4dBZ	0mm	26060m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.7m/s
15:00	988hPa	10J/kg	0.71fraction	5.6°C	61%	0.1mm	0mm	6.4dBZ	0.1mm	26060m	12m/s	6.5m/s	9.1m/s	8.3m/s
16:00	990hPa	0J/kg	0.66fraction	6.1°C	47%	0.2mm	0mm	0.87dBZ	0.2mm	25760m	13m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	7.7m/s
17:00	991hPa	0J/kg	0.61fraction	6.9°C	26%	0.1mm	0mm	-4.7dBZ	0.1mm	25440m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	8.6m/s
18:00	991hPa	0J/kg	0.56fraction	7.6°C	12%	0mm	0mm	-10dBZ	0mm	22300m	12m/s	8.2m/s	4.6m/s	6.8m/s
19:00 Night	992hPa	0J/kg	0.53fraction	8.5°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-4.1dBZ	0mm	50000m	13m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	8.6m/s
20:00 Night	992hPa	0J/kg	0.5fraction	9.7°C	21%	0mm	0mm	2dBZ	0mm	50000m	20m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	15m/s
21:00 Night	992hPa	0J/kg	0.47fraction	10°C	27%	0mm	0mm	8dBZ	0mm	23640m	23m/s	5.1m/s	5.8m/s	15m/s
22:00 Night	994hPa	0J/kg	0.51fraction	9.6°C	28%	0mm	0mm	9.8dBZ	0mm	28580m	21m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	11m/s
23:00 Night	995hPa	0J/kg	0.55fraction	7.9°C	28%	0mm	0mm	12dBZ	0mm	23780m	15m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	9.4m/s
Sat, Oct 10, 2026Sunrise 08:11 · Sunset 18:29
24:00 Night	997hPa	0J/kg	0.59fraction	7.3°C	27%	0mm	0mm	13dBZ	0mm	25340m	13m/s	5.3m/s	3.6m/s	9.3m/s
01:00 Night	997hPa	0J/kg	0.54fraction	7.1°C	27%	0mm	0mm	15dBZ	0mm	22420m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	8.9m/s
02:00 Night	998hPa	0J/kg	0.5fraction	7.8°C	27%	0.1mm	0mm	16dBZ	0.1mm	23820m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.6m/s
03:00 Night	998hPa	0J/kg	0.45fraction	9°C	27%	0.3mm	0mm	18dBZ	0.3mm	29660m	9.1m/s	3.8m/s	8m/s	6.3m/s
04:00 Night	999hPa	0J/kg	0.45fraction	10°C	27%	0.1mm	0mm	17dBZ	0.1mm	50000m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	8.6m/s
05:00 Night	1000hPa	0J/kg	0.44fraction	10°C	27%	0mm	0mm	17dBZ	0mm	24300m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.9m/s
06:00 Night	1000hPa	0J/kg	0.44fraction	10°C	27%	0.2mm	0mm	17dBZ	0.2mm	25840m	13m/s	3.3m/s	12m/s	9.2m/s
07:00 Night	1001hPa	0J/kg	0.37fraction	11°C	27%	0.1mm	0mm	14dBZ	0.1mm	50000m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	10m/s
08:00 Night	1001hPa	0J/kg	0.3fraction	12°C	27%	0mm	0mm	11dBZ	0mm	50000m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	9.3m/s
09:00	1002hPa	0J/kg	0.24fraction	13°C	27%	0mm	0mm	8.5dBZ	0mm	37380m	13m/s	2.2m/s	11m/s	9.2m/s
10:00	1003hPa	0J/kg	0.17fraction	13°C	26%	0mm	0mm	-0.97dBZ	0mm	44080m	13m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.1m/s
11:00	1004hPa	0J/kg	0.1fraction	14°C	26%	0mm	0mm	-10dBZ	0mm	50000m	7.3m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.6m/s
12:00	1004hPa	0J/kg	0.03fraction	15°C	24%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	50000m	7.9m/s	1.9m/s	7.7m/s	5.4m/s
13:00	1004hPa	0J/kg	0.02fraction	15°C	21%	0mm	0mm	-18dBZ	0mm	50000m	8.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.9m/s
14:00	1004hPa	0J/kg	0.01fraction	15°C	18%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	39520m	9.4m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6m/s
15:00	1004hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	15°C	14%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	35580m	9m/s	6.4m/s	11m/s	4.9m/s
16:00	1004hPa	0J/kg	0.02fraction	16°C	10%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	50000m	7.9m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.2m/s
17:00	1005hPa	0J/kg	0.05fraction	15°C	6%	0mm	0mm	-18dBZ	0mm	34740m	7.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.1m/s
18:00	1005hPa	0J/kg	0.07fraction	15°C	4%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	31600m	6.3m/s	6m/s	17m/s	3.4m/s
19:00 Night	1005hPa	0J/kg	0.05fraction	15°C	4%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	26120m	5m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.8m/s
20:00 Night	1005hPa	0J/kg	0.02fraction	14°C	5%	0mm	0mm	-8.1dBZ	0mm	50000m	3.9m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.7m/s
21:00 Night	1005hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	14°C	8%	0mm	0mm	-2.1dBZ	0mm	50000m	3.6m/s	6.7m/s	10m/s	2.3m/s
22:00 Night	1005hPa	0J/kg	0.33fraction	13°C	12%	0mm	0mm	2.3dBZ	0mm	50000m	3.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.7m/s
23:00 Night	1005hPa	0J/kg	0.67fraction	13°C	18%	0mm	0mm	6.7dBZ	0mm	50000m	3.5m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.5m/s
Sun, Oct 11, 2026Sunrise 08:14 · Sunset 18:26
24:00 Night	1004hPa	0J/kg	1fraction	13°C	25%	0mm	0mm	11dBZ	0mm	50000m	3.9m/s	9.2m/s	17m/s	2.5m/s
01:00 Night	1004hPa	0J/kg	0.68fraction	12°C	36%	0.2mm	0mm	14dBZ	0.2mm	19460m	3.4m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.3m/s
02:00 Night	1004hPa	0J/kg	0.36fraction	12°C	49%	1mm	0mm	16dBZ	1mm	11560m	3.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3m/s
03:00 Night	1003hPa	0J/kg	0.04fraction	13°C	59%	0.7mm	0mm	19dBZ	0.7mm	50000m	7.5m/s	10m/s	18m/s	5.7m/s
04:00 Night	1002hPa	0J/kg	0.03fraction	12°C	64%	0.2mm	0mm	11dBZ	0.2mm	18680m	9.1m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6.9m/s
05:00 Night	1002hPa	10J/kg	0.02fraction	12°C	66%	0.2mm	0mm	3.6dBZ	0.2mm	17340m	9.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	7.3m/s
06:00 Night	1001hPa	10J/kg	0.005fraction	11°C	67%	0.2mm	0mm	-4dBZ	0.2mm	18640m	11m/s	6.3m/s	17m/s	8.1m/s
07:00 Night	1001hPa	20J/kg	0fraction	12°C	69%	0.1mm	0mm	4.9dBZ	0.1mm	20080m	11m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	8.6m/s
08:00 Night	1001hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	12°C	71%	0.2mm	0mm	14dBZ	0.2mm	22040m	13m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	9.8m/s
09:00	1000hPa	10J/kg	0.002fraction	12°C	71%	0.3mm	0mm	23dBZ	0.3mm	50000m	14m/s	8.1m/s	14m/s	10m/s
10:00	1000hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	12°C	66%	0mm	0mm	19dBZ	0mm	50000m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	11m/s
11:00	1000hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	13°C	59%	0mm	0mm	14dBZ	0mm	22740m	15m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	11m/s
12:00	999hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	13°C	53%	0mm	0mm	10dBZ	0mm	22240m	15m/s	7.3m/s	14m/s	11m/s
13:00	999hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	13°C	49%	0mm	0mm	2.5dBZ	0mm	23700m	15m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	11m/s
14:00	998hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	12°C	45%	0mm	0mm	-5.2dBZ	0mm	50000m	15m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	10m/s
15:00	997hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	13°C	41%	0mm	0mm	-13dBZ	0mm	50000m	15m/s	12m/s	13m/s	11m/s
16:00	995hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	14°C	36%	0mm	0mm	-11dBZ	0mm	50000m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	8.9m/s
17:00	994hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	14°C	31%	0mm	0mm	-9.9dBZ	0mm	32960m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	7.8m/s
18:00	993hPa	7.5J/kg	0fraction	13°C	29%	0mm	0mm	-8.5dBZ	0mm	28240m	13m/s	12m/s	15m/s	6.9m/s
19:00 Night	991hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	13°C	30%	0mm	0mm	-6.7dBZ	0mm	16150m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6.4m/s
20:00 Night	990hPa	2.5J/kg	0fraction	14°C	34%	0mm	0mm	-4.9dBZ	0mm	17255m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5m/s
21:00 Night	989hPa	20J/kg	0fraction	13°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-3.1dBZ	0mm	7080m	11m/s	12m/s	16m/s	3.8m/s
22:00 Night	987hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	11°C	47%	0mm	0mm	5.7dBZ	0mm	8440m	11m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.8m/s
23:00 Night	986hPa	0J/kg	0.01fraction	11°C	57%	0mm	0mm	15dBZ	0mm	11980m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4m/s
Mon, Oct 12, 2026Sunrise 08:17 · Sunset 18:22
24:00 Night	983hPa	0J/kg	0.01fraction	10°C	67%	0mm	0mm	23dBZ	0mm	20120m	14m/s	11m/s	12m/s	5m/s
01:00 Night	981hPa	0J/kg	0.01fraction	11°C	76%	0.1mm	0mm	25dBZ	0.1mm	6040m	17m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6.6m/s
02:00 Night	979hPa	0J/kg	0.01fraction	9.7°C	84%	0.3mm	0mm	26dBZ	0.3mm	9440m	20m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	7.8m/s
03:00 Night	977hPa	0J/kg	0.008fraction	11°C	90%	0.3mm	0mm	28dBZ	0.3mm	4480m	24m/s	8.7m/s	13m/s	10m/s
04:00 Night	976hPa	0J/kg	0.01fraction	9.2°C	94%	0.7mm	0mm	29dBZ	0.7mm	8480m	26m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	11m/s
05:00 Night	975hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	8°C	95%	0.2mm	0mm	30dBZ	0.2mm	6780m	26m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	11m/s
06:00 Night	975hPa	0J/kg	0.003fraction	6.3°C	96%	0.3mm	0mm	32dBZ	0.3mm	7460m	25m/s	12m/s	12m/s	9.6m/s
07:00 Night	975hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.1°C	96%	0.5mm	0mm	25dBZ	0.5mm	4520m	23m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	9.3m/s
08:00 Night	976hPa	10J/kg	0.01fraction	5.4°C	95%	0.2mm	0.1mm	19dBZ	0.3mm	11500m	22m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	9.1m/s
09:00	977hPa	0J/kg	0.006fraction	4°C	94%	0.4mm	0.1mm	12dBZ	0.5mm	5420m	21m/s	14m/s	12m/s	8.7m/s
10:00	977hPa	0J/kg	0.05fraction	3°C	94%	0.2mm	0.3mm	5.8dBZ	0.5mm	4020m	20m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	8.8m/s
11:00	978hPa	10J/kg	0.1fraction	3.6°C	95%	0.5mm	0.5mm	-0.71dBZ	1mm	5300m	20m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	7.2m/s
12:00	979hPa	20J/kg	0.14fraction	2.8°C	96%	0.2mm	1.6mm	-7.2dBZ	1.8mm	4340m	18m/s	1.9m/s	3.1m/s	7.2m/s

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Iceland Coast. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Arnarstapi.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Iceland Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Arnarstapi during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 52% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 53% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 53% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

09:00 local time, shared by 7 of 59 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

September, with 30 of 59 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

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