Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Waipio Valley, Hawaii

Honokaa, Hawaii, United States

Waipiʻo Lookout surveys a broad valley enclosed by sheer green walls, with taro fields, waterfalls, and a black-sand shoreline far below.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

CAPE0

Lifted Index0.2°C

Wind Gusts2.9m/s

Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

Next opportunity

Moderate Storm

Waipio Valley

Tomorrow · 12:00–16:00 · 4h window

Low confidence

36%

⛈️Storm Intensity44.9-55.7%

CAPE: 417

Lifted Index: -2.2°C

Wind Gusts: 5.0m/s

Precipitation: 2.7mm

Weak Storm

Waipio Valley

Tomorrow · 17:00–18:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:45%

Medium

Weak Storm at Dusk

Waipio Valley

Tomorrow · 19:00–20:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:41%

Medium

Weak Storm

Waipio Valley

Tue, Aug 25 · 08:00–09:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:40%

Medium

Weak Storm

Waipio Valley

Thu, Aug 27 · 17:00–18:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:40%

Low

Weak Storm

Waipio Valley

Mon, Aug 31 · 14:00–17:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:42-45%

Low

Weak Storm at Sunrise

Waipio Valley

Tue, Sep 1 · 06:00–07:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:42%

Low

+2 more windows in the next 14 days

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Waipio Valley.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Waipio Valley during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 58% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 57% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 57% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

18:00 local time, shared by 4 of 24 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

August, with 20 of 24 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

7matching hours in the next 95 hoursJump to next match

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Sat, Aug 22
22:00	18%
23:00	18%
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	15%
01:00	15%
02:00	27%
03:00	25%
04:00	27%
05:00	25%
06:00	28%
07:00	35%
08:00	39%
09:00	32%
10:00	36%
11:00	34%
12:00	39%
13:00	38%
14:00	38%
15:00	29%
16:00	27%
17:00	27%
18:00	0%
19:00	22%
20:00	27%
21:00	23%
22:00	0%
23:00	17%
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	18%
01:00	0%
02:00	0%
03:00	0%
04:00	0%
05:00	0%
06:00	19%
07:00	22%
08:00	25%
09:00	28%
10:00	31%
11:00	35%
12:00	51%
13:00	45%
14:00	56%
15:00	47%
16:00	34%
17:00	45%
18:00	32%
19:00	41%
20:00	36%
21:00	24%
22:00	24%
23:00	22%
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	24%
01:00	25%
02:00	28%
03:00	27%
04:00	24%
05:00	26%
06:00	26%
07:00	39%
08:00	40%
09:00	39%
10:00	35%
11:00	35%
12:00	38%
13:00	32%
14:00	35%
15:00	31%
16:00	33%
17:00	34%
18:00	35%
19:00	38%
20:00	31%
21:00	26%
22:00	20%
23:00	22%
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	0%
01:00	30%
02:00	30%
03:00	26%
04:00	0%
05:00	0%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	0%
09:00	25%
10:00	29%
11:00	36%
12:00	32%
13:00	29%
14:00	31%
15:00	30%
16:00	27%
17:00	26%
18:00	26%
19:00	27%
20:00	26%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:04 Sunset 18:43
22:00 ☾	882hPa	0J/kg	0.02fraction	0.2°C	58%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	6809m	2.9m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
23:00 ☾	882hPa	1J/kg	0fraction	-0.1°C	40%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.6m/s	0.58m/s	2.6m/s	1.5m/s
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:04 Sunset 18:43
24:00 ☾	881hPa	1J/kg	0fraction	-0.2°C	45%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.6m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
01:00 ☾	881hPa	1J/kg	0fraction	0.1°C	51%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.8m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
02:00 ☾	880hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	0.5°C	56%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.2m/s	0.78m/s	3.2m/s	1.6m/s
03:00 ☾	880hPa	1J/kg	0fraction	0.8°C	57%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.4m/s	-	-	1.8m/s
04:00 ☾	880hPa	2J/kg	0fraction	0.7°C	57%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.3m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
05:00 ☾	880hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	0.5°C	58%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.1m/s	0.28m/s	4.1m/s	1.6m/s
06:00 ☾	881hPa	0J/kg	0.25fraction	0.3°C	72%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.6m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
07:00	881hPa	1J/kg	0.5fraction	0.2°C	86%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.2m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
08:00	882hPa	6J/kg	0.75fraction	0.1°C	100%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	2.8m/s	1.3m/s	2.7m/s	1m/s
09:00	882hPa	33J/kg	0.83fraction	-0.2°C	100%	0mm	0.01mm	-6dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.1m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
10:00	882hPa	97J/kg	0.92fraction	-1°C	100%	0.01mm	0.28mm	8dBZ	0.06mm	12023m	3.3m/s	-	-	2.6m/s
11:00	882hPa	252J/kg	1fraction	-1.8°C	100%	0mm	0.48mm	22dBZ	0.25mm	11696m	3.4m/s	4m/s	0.69m/s	3.8m/s
12:00	882hPa	341J/kg	1fraction	-2°C	100%	0mm	0.88mm	23dBZ	0.81mm	9639m	4.3m/s	-	-	4.3m/s
13:00	881hPa	306J/kg	1fraction	-1.8°C	100%	0.01mm	0.83mm	24dBZ	1.6mm	10808m	4.4m/s	-	-	4.5m/s
14:00 ☾	881hPa	417J/kg	1fraction	-2.2°C	100%	0.04mm	1.1mm	24dBZ	2.7mm	6806m	5m/s	5.1m/s	4.5m/s	5.3m/s
15:00 ☾	881hPa	260J/kg	0.74fraction	-1.7°C	90%	0.06mm	1.8mm	15dBZ	0.94mm	7345m	5.7m/s	-	-	6.1m/s
16:00 ☾	881hPa	153J/kg	0.48fraction	-1.5°C	79%	0.56mm	0.39mm	6.5dBZ	1.8mm	22913m	5.7m/s	-	-	5.7m/s
17:00 ☾	881hPa	163J/kg	0.21fraction	-1.3°C	69%	0.9mm	0.07mm	-2.6dBZ	2.8mm	403m	7m/s	4.1m/s	5.5m/s	5.7m/s
18:00 ☾	882hPa	142J/kg	0.2fraction	-1.6°C	73%	0.86mm	0.12mm	-8.4dBZ	4.2mm	21769m	5.2m/s	-	-	4.3m/s
19:00 ☾	882hPa	69J/kg	0.19fraction	-0.9°C	78%	0.07mm	0.08mm	-14dBZ	5mm	7370m	4.5m/s	-	-	3.1m/s
20:00 ☾	882hPa	52J/kg	0.17fraction	-0.9°C	83%	0mm	0.29mm	-20dBZ	5.1mm	22921m	4m/s	0.99m/s	2.6m/s	2.8m/s
21:00 ☾	883hPa	38J/kg	0.15fraction	-1°C	83%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	3.8m/s	-	-	2.4m/s
22:00 ☾	883hPa	0J/kg	0.13fraction	-0.5°C	82%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	3.6m/s	-	-	2.2m/s
23:00 ☾	883hPa	0J/kg	0.11fraction	0°C	82%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	3.3m/s	1.3m/s	1.1m/s	2m/s
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:04 Sunset 18:42
24:00 ☾	882hPa	0J/kg	0.41fraction	0.4°C	82%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	3.6m/s	-	-	2.2m/s
01:00 ☾	882hPa	0J/kg	0.7fraction	1°C	82%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	4.6m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
02:00 ☾	881hPa	1J/kg	1fraction	1.6°C	82%	0mm	0.05mm	-19dBZ	0.19mm	16079m	5.7m/s	1.9m/s	1.1m/s	3.5m/s
03:00 ☾	881hPa	2J/kg	1fraction	2.3°C	67%	0mm	0.04mm	-16dBZ	0.06mm	5061m	6.7m/s	-	-	4.5m/s
04:00 ☾	881hPa	4J/kg	1fraction	2.5°C	53%	0mm	0.06mm	-13dBZ	0.13mm	19822m	7.4m/s	-	-	5.4m/s
05:00 ☾	881hPa	6J/kg	1fraction	2.1°C	39%	0mm	0.1mm	-10dBZ	0.25mm	22928m	8.1m/s	3.9m/s	2m/s	5.6m/s
06:00 ☾	881hPa	6J/kg	0.78fraction	1.8°C	59%	0mm	0.1mm	-8.4dBZ	0.38mm	19846m	8.5m/s	-	-	6.3m/s
07:00	882hPa	8J/kg	0.57fraction	1°C	79%	0mm	0.08mm	-6.6dBZ	0.5mm	161m	8.3m/s	-	-	6.6m/s
08:00	882hPa	6J/kg	0.35fraction	1.1°C	98%	0.04mm	0.07mm	-4.8dBZ	0.63mm	330m	7.4m/s	4.4m/s	2.5m/s	6.2m/s
09:00	882hPa	4J/kg	0.33fraction	1°C	93%	0.06mm	0.06mm	-8.6dBZ	0.13mm	884m	6.4m/s	-	-	5.7m/s
10:00	882hPa	3J/kg	0.31fraction	0.8°C	87%	0.01mm	0.02mm	-12dBZ	0.19mm	1203m	5.9m/s	-	-	5.9m/s
11:00	882hPa	2J/kg	0.28fraction	0.4°C	82%	0mm	0.01mm	-16dBZ	0.19mm	1777m	5.8m/s	4.3m/s	2.6m/s	6.1m/s
12:00	882hPa	5J/kg	0.39fraction	0°C	85%	0mm	0.06mm	-10dBZ	0.19mm	467m	5.6m/s	-	-	6.2m/s
13:00	882hPa	5J/kg	0.5fraction	0.2°C	89%	0mm	0.04mm	-4.4dBZ	0.31mm	5453m	5.3m/s	-	-	6m/s
14:00 ☾	881hPa	3J/kg	0.6fraction	0.8°C	93%	0mm	0.04mm	1.5dBZ	0.38mm	5451m	5.4m/s	3.6m/s	1.4m/s	5.9m/s
15:00 ☾	881hPa	1J/kg	0.68fraction	1.3°C	89%	0mm	0.03mm	-2.7dBZ	0.06mm	5450m	5.7m/s	-	-	6.1m/s
16:00 ☾	881hPa	2J/kg	0.75fraction	1.6°C	86%	0mm	0.14mm	-6.9dBZ	0.13mm	5483m	5.6m/s	-	-	6.2m/s
17:00 ☾	881hPa	7J/kg	0.83fraction	1.8°C	82%	0.01mm	0.06mm	-11dBZ	0.19mm	7125m	6m/s	4.2m/s	2.5m/s	6.4m/s
18:00 ☾	881hPa	5J/kg	0.68fraction	1.7°C	82%	0mm	0.09mm	-5.3dBZ	0.25mm	4755m	6.9m/s	-	-	6.3m/s
19:00 ☾	882hPa	5J/kg	0.53fraction	2.2°C	82%	0.04mm	0.07mm	0.58dBZ	0.38mm	799m	7.1m/s	-	-	6.2m/s
20:00 ☾	882hPa	2J/kg	0.38fraction	2.3°C	82%	0.1mm	0.04mm	6.4dBZ	0.44mm	8166m	6.9m/s	4.5m/s	2.9m/s	6m/s
21:00 ☾	882hPa	2J/kg	0.37fraction	2.6°C	67%	0.08mm	0.05mm	5.7dBZ	0.13mm	15603m	7.4m/s	-	-	6.3m/s
22:00 ☾	883hPa	3J/kg	0.37fraction	2.5°C	53%	0.08mm	0.05mm	5dBZ	0.31mm	1155m	7.4m/s	-	-	6.2m/s
23:00 ☾	883hPa	2J/kg	0.36fraction	2.5°C	39%	0.01mm	0.03mm	4.4dBZ	0.44mm	336m	7.2m/s	4.6m/s	2.6m/s	6m/s
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:05 Sunset 18:41
24:00 ☾	882hPa	4J/kg	0.36fraction	3.1°C	53%	0mm	0.06mm	4.8dBZ	0.5mm	6515m	6.3m/s	-	-	5.7m/s
01:00 ☾	882hPa	3J/kg	0.36fraction	3.5°C	67%	0mm	0.03mm	5.3dBZ	0.56mm	1868m	6.5m/s	-	-	5.4m/s
02:00 ☾	881hPa	4J/kg	0.35fraction	3.7°C	82%	0.07mm	0.06mm	5.7dBZ	0.69mm	4020m	6.2m/s	3.1m/s	2.9m/s	4.8m/s
03:00 ☾	881hPa	5J/kg	0.35fraction	4°C	67%	0mm	0.07mm	6.3dBZ	0.13mm	8738m	5.9m/s	-	-	4.9m/s
04:00 ☾	881hPa	3J/kg	0.35fraction	4.4°C	53%	0.13mm	0.06mm	6.8dBZ	0.19mm	22060m	5.8m/s	-	-	4.8m/s
05:00 ☾	881hPa	1J/kg	0.34fraction	4.5°C	39%	0.09mm	0.05mm	7.3dBZ	0.44mm	22086m	6.1m/s	2.8m/s	2.8m/s	4.8m/s
06:00 ☾	881hPa	2J/kg	0.3fraction	4.9°C	45%	0.01mm	0.02mm	-0.4dBZ	0.5mm	24135m	6.2m/s	-	-	4.7m/s
07:00	881hPa	0J/kg	0.27fraction	4.9°C	50%	0mm	0.01mm	-8.1dBZ	0.5mm	24135m	6.1m/s	-	-	4.8m/s
08:00	882hPa	2J/kg	0.23fraction	4.7°C	56%	0mm	0.01mm	-16dBZ	0.56mm	24135m	6.3m/s	2.6m/s	2.5m/s	5.5m/s
09:00	881hPa	2J/kg	0.49fraction	4.2°C	56%	0.02mm	0.02mm	-15dBZ	0.52mm	16353m	6.7m/s	-	-	5.7m/s
10:00	881hPa	2J/kg	0.74fraction	3.8°C	56%	0.03mm	0.02mm	-14dBZ	0.48mm	8570m	7.1m/s	-	-	5.9m/s
11:00	880hPa	2J/kg	1fraction	3.3°C	56%	0.05mm	0.03mm	-13dBZ	0.44mm	788m	7.5m/s	3.1m/s	3.6m/s	6.1m/s
12:00	881hPa	2.7J/kg	0.9fraction	3.7°C	65%	0.05mm	0.04mm	-4.8dBZ	0.5mm	8178m	7.4m/s	-	-	6.1m/s
13:00	881hPa	3.3J/kg	0.81fraction	4.1°C	73%	0.05mm	0.04mm	3dBZ	0.56mm	15568m	7.4m/s	-	-	6m/s
14:00 ☾	881hPa	4J/kg	0.71fraction	4.6°C	82%	0.05mm	0.05mm	11dBZ	0.63mm	22957m	7.3m/s	3.4m/s	2.5m/s	6m/s
15:00 ☾	881hPa	2.7J/kg	0.67fraction	5.4°C	82%	0.04mm	0.03mm	8.2dBZ	0.46mm	23350m	7.5m/s	-	-	5.6m/s
16:00 ☾	882hPa	1.3J/kg	0.63fraction	6.2°C	82%	0.02mm	0.02mm	5.5dBZ	0.29mm	23742m	7.6m/s	-	-	5.3m/s
17:00 ☾	882hPa	0J/kg	0.59fraction	7°C	82%	0.01mm	0mm	2.8dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	7.7m/s	3.3m/s	3.3m/s	4.9m/s
18:00 ☾	881hPa	0J/kg	0.45fraction	6.6°C	86%	0.01mm	0.003mm	-4.1dBZ	0.15mm	24135m	7.6m/s	-	-	4.9m/s
19:00 ☾	881hPa	0J/kg	0.32fraction	6.2°C	90%	0.02mm	0.007mm	-11dBZ	0.17mm	24135m	7.6m/s	-	-	4.8m/s
20:00 ☾	880hPa	0J/kg	0.19fraction	5.8°C	95%	0.02mm	0.01mm	-18dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	7.5m/s	2.3m/s	3.5m/s	4.8m/s
21:00 ☾	880hPa	1J/kg	0.46fraction	5.6°C	82%	0.01mm	0.02mm	-19dBZ	0.17mm	24135m	7.3m/s	-	-	4.7m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 24, 2026, 7:40 AM UTC

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