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Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Wailea, Hawaii

Kīhei, Hawaii, United States

Wailea's lava-rock points divide sandy coves along South Maui, framing palms, offshore islets, and the neighboring island of Kahoʻolawe.

Currently

Real-time conditions
Storm Intensity
16%
CAPE11
Lifted Index-0.8°C
Wind Gusts6.0m/s
Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (95-hour forecast)

  • Storm Intensity100% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Wailea.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Wailea during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days
6
recorded matching windows · 52% average confidence
Last 90 days
6
recorded matching windows · 52% average confidence
Last 365 days
7
recorded matching windows · 53% average confidence

Only 7 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Pacific/Honolulu
Storm Intensity
≥ 40.0%
Sat, Aug 22
22:0013%
23:000%
Sun, Aug 23
24:000%
01:000%
02:000%
03:000%
04:000%
05:000%
06:000%
07:000%
08:000%
09:0016%
10:0017%
11:0018%
12:0021%
13:0025%
14:0031%
15:0024%
16:0021%
17:000%
18:000%
19:000%
20:0023%
21:0016%
22:0016%
23:0020%
Mon, Aug 24
24:0019%
01:0019%
02:0023%
03:0018%
04:0018%
05:0024%
06:0020%
07:0020%
08:0021%
09:0017%
10:0020%
11:0024%
12:0022%
13:0031%
14:0035%
15:0025%
16:0027%
17:0026%
18:0023%
19:0028%
20:0018%
21:0011%
22:0011%
23:0012%
Tue, Aug 25
24:0014%
01:0016%
02:0023%
03:0020%
04:0018%
05:0018%
06:0016%
07:000%
08:000%
09:000%
10:000%
11:0017%
12:0014%
13:0015%
14:0017%
15:0015%
16:0016%
17:0017%
18:0016%
19:0019%
20:0017%
21:0017%
22:0018%
23:0020%
Wed, Aug 26
24:0017%
01:0016%
02:000%
03:0019%
04:0020%
05:0022%
06:0016%
07:000%
08:000%
09:000%
10:000%
11:000%
12:000%
13:000%
14:000%
15:000%
16:0019%
17:0017%
18:0021%
19:0020%
20:0020%
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Pacific/Honolulu
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
Convective Precip Fraction
fraction
Lifted Index
°C
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Total Precipitation
mm
Visibility
m
Wind Gusts
m/s
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 18:47
22:00 ☾
990hPa 11J/kg 0fraction -0.8°C 39% 0mm 0mm -14dBZ 0mm 24135m 6m/s - - 4.5m/s
23:00 ☾
990hPa 19J/kg 0fraction -0.9°C 39% 0mm 0mm -13dBZ 0mm 24134m 4.4m/s 7.6m/s 10m/s 3.8m/s
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 18:47
24:00 ☾
989hPa 9J/kg 0.06fraction -0.8°C 45% 0mm 0.17mm -11dBZ 0.13mm 24135m 3.8m/s - - 3.3m/s
01:00 ☾
989hPa 5J/kg 0.12fraction -0.4°C 50% 0mm 0.07mm -9.6dBZ 0.25mm 24134m 3.6m/s - - 3.3m/s
02:00 ☾
988hPa 9J/kg 0.18fraction -0.4°C 56% 0mm 0.01mm -8.1dBZ 0.31mm 24135m 3.7m/s 10m/s 11m/s 3.5m/s
03:00 ☾
988hPa 36J/kg 0.3fraction -0.7°C 41% 0mm 0.01mm -9.9dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 4m/s - - 3.7m/s
04:00 ☾
988hPa 62J/kg 0.43fraction -0.9°C 25% 0mm 0.01mm -12dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 3.8m/s - - 3.5m/s
05:00 ☾
988hPa 76J/kg 0.55fraction -0.6°C 10% 0mm 0.01mm -14dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 4m/s 11m/s 10m/s 3.7m/s
06:00 ☾
988hPa 83J/kg 0.54fraction -0.8°C 23% 0mm 0.07mm -14dBZ 0.13mm 24134m 3.8m/s - - 3.3m/s
07:00
989hPa 83J/kg 0.53fraction -0.8°C 37% 0mm 0.03mm -15dBZ 0.19mm 24135m 3.3m/s - - 3m/s
08:00
990hPa 74J/kg 0.53fraction -0.7°C 50% 0mm 0.02mm -15dBZ 0.25mm 24134m 3.3m/s 8.6m/s 8.6m/s 3m/s
09:00
989hPa 79J/kg 0.68fraction -0.8°C 33% 0mm 0.01mm -16dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.5m/s - - 2.5m/s
10:00
989hPa 149J/kg 0.84fraction -1°C 17% 0mm 0.03mm -16dBZ 0mm 24134m 2.9m/s - - 3.3m/s
11:00
989hPa 273J/kg 1fraction -1.3°C 0% 0mm 0.11mm -17dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 3.1m/s 6.4m/s 7.4m/s 3.6m/s
12:00
989hPa 276J/kg 1fraction -1.4°C 13% 0.04mm 0.13mm -16dBZ 0.25mm 23783m 4.3m/s - - 4.1m/s
13:00
989hPa 255J/kg 1fraction -1.5°C 26% 0.08mm 1.1mm -16dBZ 0.63mm 17163m 4.8m/s - - 4.3m/s
14:00 ☾
989hPa 317J/kg 1fraction -1.8°C 39% 0.13mm 0.53mm -16dBZ 1.5mm 17920m 4.3m/s 9.9m/s 10m/s 3.7m/s
15:00 ☾
989hPa 346J/kg 0.81fraction -2.1°C 26% 0.11mm 0.2mm -16dBZ 0.75mm 20005m 3.7m/s - - 3.2m/s
16:00 ☾
988hPa 330J/kg 0.63fraction -2.3°C 13% 0.02mm 0.14mm -17dBZ 1mm 23993m 3.6m/s - - 3.3m/s
17:00 ☾
989hPa 354J/kg 0.44fraction -2.4°C 0% 0.01mm 0.39mm -17dBZ 1.3mm 20649m 2.6m/s 6.6m/s 9.8m/s 2.3m/s
18:00 ☾
989hPa 355J/kg 0.37fraction -2.6°C 0% 0mm 0.1mm -18dBZ 1.4mm 24135m 2.9m/s - - 3m/s
19:00 ☾
990hPa 323J/kg 0.3fraction -2.3°C 0% 0mm 0.57mm -19dBZ 1.6mm 20249m 2.8m/s - - 2.8m/s
20:00 ☾
990hPa 216J/kg 0.23fraction -1.9°C 0% 0mm 0.13mm -20dBZ 1.9mm 24135m 2.8m/s 5m/s 8.4m/s 2.2m/s
21:00 ☾
991hPa 169J/kg 0.17fraction -1.5°C 0% 0mm 0.02mm -20dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 3.2m/s - - 3m/s
22:00 ☾
991hPa 133J/kg 0.11fraction -1.4°C 0% 0mm 0.01mm -20dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 3m/s - - 2.8m/s
23:00 ☾
991hPa 119J/kg 0.06fraction -1.4°C 0% 0.02mm 0mm -20dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 2.9m/s 5.4m/s 6.2m/s 2.5m/s
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:08 Sunset 18:47
24:00 ☾
991hPa 98J/kg 0.37fraction -1.4°C 13% 0.02mm 0mm -12dBZ 0.13mm 24134m 3.1m/s - - 2.6m/s
01:00 ☾
990hPa 79J/kg 0.69fraction -1.2°C 26% 0.01mm 0.01mm -4.4dBZ 0.13mm 24134m 3.4m/s - - 2.9m/s
02:00 ☾
990hPa 57J/kg 1fraction -0.9°C 39% 0.02mm 0.01mm 3.4dBZ 0.19mm 24135m 3.5m/s 7m/s 4.9m/s 3.1m/s
03:00 ☾
989hPa 27J/kg 0.92fraction -0.4°C 26% 0.01mm 0.01mm 4.6dBZ 0mm 24134m 4m/s - - 3.6m/s
04:00 ☾
989hPa 7J/kg 0.84fraction 0.1°C 13% 0.01mm 0.01mm 5.8dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 4.5m/s - - 3.9m/s
05:00 ☾
990hPa 0J/kg 0.76fraction 0.6°C 0% 0mm 0mm 7dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 5.4m/s 7.8m/s 4.6m/s 4.5m/s
06:00 ☾
990hPa 0J/kg 0.57fraction 0.9°C 0% 0mm 0mm 1.7dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 6.4m/s - - 5.2m/s
07:00
990hPa 0J/kg 0.39fraction 1.2°C 0% 0mm 0mm -3.5dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 6.6m/s - - 5.5m/s
08:00
991hPa 0J/kg 0.21fraction 1.2°C 0% 0mm 0.01mm -8.8dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 5.9m/s 9.3m/s 5.5m/s 5.2m/s
09:00
991hPa 2J/kg 0.29fraction 1°C 0% 0mm 0.01mm -13dBZ 0mm 24135m 5.1m/s - - 4.6m/s
10:00
991hPa 2J/kg 0.38fraction 1°C 0% 0mm 0mm -16dBZ 0mm 24134m 4.2m/s - - 3.9m/s
11:00
990hPa 1J/kg 0.47fraction 1°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 4m/s 10m/s 7.1m/s 3.5m/s
12:00
990hPa 2J/kg 0.55fraction 1.1°C 0% 0mm 0mm -19dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.7m/s - - 2.1m/s
13:00
989hPa 4J/kg 0.64fraction 0.8°C 0% 0mm 0.01mm -18dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.3m/s - - 1.1m/s
14:00 ☾
989hPa 7J/kg 0.72fraction 0.4°C 0% 0mm 0.01mm -16dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 3.9m/s 9.7m/s 7m/s 2.5m/s
15:00 ☾
989hPa 6J/kg 0.64fraction 0.5°C 0% 0mm 0.02mm -16dBZ 0mm 24134m 4.6m/s - - 2.7m/s
16:00 ☾
989hPa 4J/kg 0.56fraction 0.9°C 0% 0mm 0.01mm -16dBZ 0mm 24135m 5.1m/s - - 4.1m/s
17:00 ☾
989hPa 3J/kg 0.48fraction 1.1°C 0% 0mm 0.01mm -15dBZ 0mm 24135m 4.9m/s 7.4m/s 5.4m/s 4.8m/s
18:00 ☾
989hPa 0J/kg 0.49fraction 1.4°C 13% 0mm 0.01mm -8.1dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 5.4m/s - - 5.2m/s
19:00 ☾
990hPa 1J/kg 0.49fraction 1.9°C 26% 0mm 0.01mm -1.1dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 6.2m/s - - 5.6m/s
20:00 ☾
990hPa 2J/kg 0.49fraction 2°C 39% 0mm 0.01mm 5.9dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 6.8m/s 6.4m/s 5.1m/s 6.1m/s
21:00 ☾
991hPa 1J/kg 0.66fraction 2.5°C 26% 0.01mm 0mm 7.4dBZ 0mm 24135m 7.5m/s - - 6.4m/s
22:00 ☾
991hPa 0J/kg 0.83fraction 2.8°C 13% 0mm 0mm 8.9dBZ 0mm 24135m 7.7m/s - - 6.5m/s
23:00 ☾
991hPa 0J/kg 1fraction 3.1°C 0% 0mm 0.01mm 10dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 7.1m/s 5.7m/s 6.1m/s 6.2m/s
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:08 Sunset 18:46
24:00 ☾
991hPa 1J/kg 0.79fraction 3.2°C 13% 0mm 0.01mm 7.8dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 6.7m/s - - 5.9m/s
01:00 ☾
991hPa 1J/kg 0.57fraction 3.5°C 26% 0mm 0.01mm 5.2dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 7.2m/s - - 6.1m/s
02:00 ☾
990hPa 0J/kg 0.36fraction 4°C 39% 0mm 0.01mm 2.6dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 7.3m/s 5.1m/s 5.7m/s 6.2m/s
03:00 ☾
990hPa 0J/kg 0.53fraction 4.4°C 39% 0mm 0mm 1.4dBZ 0mm 24134m 6.5m/s - - 5.7m/s
04:00 ☾
990hPa 0J/kg 0.69fraction 4.6°C 39% 0mm 0mm 0.28dBZ 0mm 24134m 6.3m/s - - 5.6m/s
05:00 ☾
990hPa 0J/kg 0.86fraction 4.7°C 39% 0mm 0mm -0.88dBZ 0mm 24134m 6.2m/s 5.8m/s 6.5m/s 5.5m/s
06:00 ☾
990hPa 0J/kg 0.58fraction 4.9°C 33% 0mm 0mm -7.1dBZ 0mm 24135m 6.2m/s - - 5.7m/s
07:00
990hPa 0J/kg 0.3fraction 5.1°C 28% 0mm 0mm -13dBZ 0mm 24135m 6.6m/s - - 5.9m/s
08:00
991hPa 0J/kg 0.03fraction 5.3°C 22% 0mm 0mm -19dBZ 0mm 24135m 6.6m/s 5m/s 6m/s 6.2m/s
09:00
995hPa 5.3J/kg 0.02fraction 4.5°C 15% 0mm 0.003mm -20dBZ 0.02mm 24135m 7.1m/s - - 6.6m/s
10:00
999hPa 11J/kg 0.01fraction 3.6°C 7% 0mm 0.007mm -20dBZ 0.04mm 24135m 7.7m/s - - 6.9m/s
11:00
1003hPa 16J/kg 0fraction 2.8°C 0% 0mm 0.01mm -20dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 8.2m/s 5.3m/s 7.1m/s 7.3m/s
12:00
1004hPa 19J/kg 0fraction 2.6°C 13% 0mm 0.03mm -12dBZ 0.1mm 24135m 8.3m/s - - 7.2m/s
13:00
1004hPa 22J/kg 0fraction 2.5°C 26% 0mm 0.04mm -3.6dBZ 0.15mm 24135m 8.4m/s - - 7.2m/s
14:00 ☾
1005hPa 25J/kg 0fraction 2.4°C 39% 0mm 0.06mm 4.6dBZ 0.19mm 24135m 8.5m/s 4.6m/s 8m/s 7.2m/s
15:00 ☾
1005hPa 22J/kg 0.33fraction 2.7°C 39% 0mm 0.05mm 6.9dBZ 0.15mm 24135m 8.4m/s - - 7m/s
16:00 ☾
1005hPa 19J/kg 0.67fraction 3°C 39% 0mm 0.04mm 9.2dBZ 0.1mm 24135m 8.3m/s - - 6.9m/s
17:00 ☾
1005hPa 16J/kg 1fraction 3.2°C 39% 0mm 0.03mm 11dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 8.1m/s 4.8m/s 8.1m/s 6.7m/s
18:00 ☾
1005hPa 28J/kg 0.8fraction 2.9°C 45% 0mm 0.08mm 9.4dBZ 0.19mm 21137m 8.3m/s - - 6.7m/s
19:00 ☾
1004hPa 39J/kg 0.61fraction 2.5°C 50% 0mm 0.14mm 7.3dBZ 0.31mm 18138m 8.5m/s - - 6.8m/s
20:00 ☾
1004hPa 51J/kg 0.41fraction 2.2°C 56% 0mm 0.19mm 5.3dBZ 0.44mm 15140m 8.6m/s 5.3m/s 8.2m/s 6.8m/s
21:00 ☾
1004hPa 36J/kg 0.61fraction 2.5°C 50% 0.003mm 0.13mm 5.2dBZ 0.35mm 18138m 8.5m/s - - 6.9m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →
Forecast generated

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