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Rule Storm Chaser

Wailea - Storm Chaser - Hawaii

Kīhei, Hawaii, United States

Dramatic storm conditions — from atmospheric builds to active thunderstorms

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Storm Chaser opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Storm Intensity · ≥ 55.0% Cloud Drama Score · ≥ 55.0% CAPE · ≥ 1200.0J/kg Lifted Index · ≤ -2.0°C

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Storm Intensity 100% failing
CAPE 100% failing
Cloud Drama Score 97% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Cloud Cover5%
Wind Gusts2.2m/s
Precipitation Chance35%
Air Pressure992.4hPa
CAPE164
Lifted Index1.5°C
Wind Gusts2.2m/s
Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks Hawaii's tropical storm conditions, focusing on the dramatic convective storms and rain squalls that create spectacular photography opportunities. We monitor atmospheric instability, trade wind patterns, and convective development to predict when tropical storms will produce dramatic skies and lighting conditions.

Hawaii's tropical location means storm systems behave differently than mainland storms. Trade wind showers create brief, intense rain squalls that pass quickly, often producing rainbows. Kona storms—winter low-pressure systems from the southwest—bring more widespread drama. Summer afternoon convection builds towering clouds over island mountains.

What makes Hawaii special for storm photography:

  • Tropical convection - Towering cumulus clouds develop over volcanic peaks in afternoon heat
  • Dramatic cloud formations - Trade winds create lenticular clouds and wave patterns
  • Kona storm drama - Winter southwest storms bring unusual widespread rain and dramatic conditions
  • Rain squalls with rainbows - Brief intense showers followed immediately by sunshine and rainbows

Hawaiian storm photography is unique because storms are rarely dangerous to photographers—most are brief convective cells or passing squalls rather than severe weather. The dramatic part is the towering cloud formations, not dangerous conditions. Afternoon convection over Mauna Kea and Haleakala creates spectacular anvil clouds and light shows. Kona storms, occurring October through April, bring the most widespread dramatic conditions with dark clouds, wind-driven rain, and spectacular clearing. The windward coasts see more frequent trade wind squalls—brief heavy showers that create dramatic light when sun breaks through. The combination of tropical moisture, volcanic terrain, and reliable sunshine means storm photography often includes rainbows as a bonus. Watch for conditions where dark storm clouds contrast with bright sunlit areas.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
OR logic: one branch per group is enough
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Pacific/Honolulu
Storm Intensity
≥ 55.0%
Cloud Drama Score
≥ 55.0%
CAPE
OR1·B1
≥ 1200.0J/kg
Lifted Index
OR1·B2
≤ -2.0°C
Visibility
≥ 2500.0m
Wind Gusts
≤ 22.0m/s
Sat, May 16
22:000%10%242J/kg-0.5°C24134m2.8m/s
23:000%11%156J/kg1°C17259m2.1m/s
Sun, May 17
24:000%8%174J/kg1°C17197m1.6m/s
01:000%7.5%193J/kg0.4°C24135m1.6m/s
02:009.8%7.8%189J/kg0.5°C17826m2.5m/s
03:000%3.7%111J/kg1.5°C24134m2.6m/s
04:000%3.7%103J/kg1.5°C24135m2m/s
05:009.8%23%63J/kg1.7°C24135m1.8m/s
06:000%23%63J/kg2.6°C24134m2.4m/s
07:000%15%59J/kg2.8°C24134m3.2m/s
08:0011%12%63J/kg3.1°C24134m3m/s
09:000%12%65J/kg3.3°C24135m3.1m/s
10:000%27%109J/kg3°C24135m2.8m/s
11:0011%22%125J/kg2.4°C24134m2.6m/s
12:000%25%177J/kg1.8°C24135m2.9m/s
13:009.1%29%228J/kg1.4°C17757m3.3m/s
14:0011%37%233J/kg1°C24134m3.8m/s
15:000%45%229J/kg0.7°C24134m4.2m/s
16:000%47%211J/kg1.4°C24135m6m/s
17:0014%46%206J/kg1.4°C24134m6.2m/s
18:000%51%199J/kg1.5°C24135m4.4m/s
19:000%38%181J/kg1.6°C24134m3m/s
20:000%15%166J/kg1.4°C24135m2.8m/s
21:000%15%151J/kg1.4°C24135m2.2m/s
22:000%12%164J/kg1.5°C24134m2.2m/s
23:009.1%14%187J/kg1.5°C24135m2.5m/s
Mon, May 18
24:000%9.7%187J/kg1.4°C24134m3.1m/s
01:000%8%183J/kg1.2°C24135m2.8m/s
02:009.1%8%149J/kg1.7°C24134m2.8m/s
03:000%8.3%126J/kg1.7°C24134m2.1m/s
04:000%10%99J/kg1.8°C24135m2.3m/s
05:009.1%44%89J/kg1.8°C24134m2.6m/s
06:000%28%81J/kg1.9°C24134m2.5m/s
07:000%36%89J/kg1.6°C24134m2.8m/s
08:009.1%31%105J/kg1.3°C24134m3.1m/s
09:000%43%150J/kg0.9°C24135m3.1m/s
10:000%51%197J/kg0.5°C24134m3.3m/s
11:009.1%40%249J/kg0°C24134m3m/s
12:000%36%337J/kg-0.3°C24135m3.4m/s
13:000%33%392J/kg-0.5°C24134m3.8m/s
14:0026%33%350J/kg-0.4°C18318m3.3m/s
15:000%44%340J/kg-0.6°C24135m2.6m/s
16:000%34%293J/kg-0.7°C24134m2.8m/s
17:0013%47%292J/kg-1.1°C24135m2.7m/s
18:000%52%236J/kg-0.9°C24134m2.9m/s
19:000%48%141J/kg-0.6°C24135m4m/s
20:0015%10%138J/kg-0.6°C24135m4.2m/s
21:000%9%98J/kg-0.5°C24134m3.2m/s
22:000%8.9%84J/kg-0.4°C24134m3.2m/s
23:0011%8.3%95J/kg-0.6°C24135m3.2m/s
Tue, May 19
24:000%7%107J/kg-0.9°C24134m2.7m/s
01:000%7.2%115J/kg-0.9°C24135m2.3m/s
02:0011%7%108J/kg-0.8°C24135m2.4m/s
03:000%8.7%91J/kg-0.5°C24134m3.1m/s
04:000%9.2%89J/kg-0.4°C24134m2.5m/s
05:0011%28%76J/kg-0.1°C24134m3.4m/s
06:000%41%70J/kg0.1°C24135m4.1m/s
07:000%50%31J/kg0.1°C24134m3.6m/s
08:0011%37%31J/kg-0.2°C24134m3.3m/s
09:000%39%56J/kg-0.4°C24134m3.5m/s
10:000%44%78J/kg-0.6°C24135m3.5m/s
11:0011%33%138J/kg-0.8°C24135m3.3m/s
12:0010%31%123J/kg-0.6°C17526m2.9m/s
13:000%28%123J/kg-0.8°C24134m3.2m/s
14:0011%24%122J/kg-1°C24135m3.8m/s
15:000%39%103J/kg-1°C24134m4.8m/s
16:000%51%130J/kg-1.1°C24134m5.2m/s
17:0013%50%152J/kg-1.2°C24135m4.5m/s
18:000%58%138J/kg-1.5°C24134m4.4m/s
19:000%60%116J/kg-1.5°C24135m5.5m/s
20:0013%13%71J/kg-1.1°C24134m5.2m/s
21:000%12%14J/kg-0.4°C24134m5.7m/s
22:000%12%13J/kg-0.5°C24134m5.4m/s
23:0011%13%14J/kg-0.6°C24135m5m/s
Wed, May 20
24:000%12%14J/kg-0.5°C24135m5m/s
01:000%15%7J/kg-0.2°C24135m4.8m/s
02:0011%15%5J/kg0.1°C24135m4.9m/s
03:000%11%12J/kg0.48°C20949m7.2m/s
04:000%11%19J/kg0.85°C17762m9.5m/s
05:0015%46%26J/kg1.2°C14576m12m/s
06:000%49%38J/kg1.5°C17330m12m/s
07:000%47%49J/kg1.8°C20084m12m/s
08:0015%44%61J/kg2.1°C22839m11m/s
09:000%26%61J/kg2°C20236m11m/s
10:000%20%60J/kg2°C17633m11m/s
11:0017%9%60J/kg2°C15029m10m/s
12:000%9%53J/kg2.1°C18065m11m/s
13:000%13%47J/kg2.2°C21100m11m/s
14:0014%14%40J/kg2.2°C24135m11m/s
15:000%24%38J/kg2.5°C24087m11m/s
16:000%22%35J/kg2.8°C24040m11m/s
17:0014%22%33J/kg3.1°C23992m11m/s
18:000%38%34J/kg3.1°C23844m11m/s
19:000%48%36J/kg3.1°C23695m11m/s
20:0014%0%37J/kg3.1°C23547m11m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity). For OR groups, only one branch is required, so some OR-branch predicates can be ✕ even in a matching hour.

What does Cloud Drama Score mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Pacific/Honolulu
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
High Clouds
%
Lifted Index
°C
Low Clouds
%
Mid-Level Clouds
%
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Relative Humidity
%
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Solar Elevation
°
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Total Precipitation
mm
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Sun, May 17 Sunrise 05:47 Sunset 18:57
22:00
992hPa 164J/kg 0% 1.5°C 5% 0% 35% 0mm 78% 0.01mm - -37° 5% 0mm - - 1.8m/s
23:00
992hPa 187J/kg 4% 1.5°C 3% 0% 22% 0mm 80% 0mm -18dBZ -45° 6% 0mm 7.7m/s 14m/s 2.2m/s
Mon, May 18 Sunrise 05:47 Sunset 18:57
24:00
992hPa 187J/kg 6% 1.4°C 4% 0% 28% 0mm 82% 0.01mm - -49° 7% 0mm - - 2.7m/s
01:00
991hPa 183J/kg 4% 1.2°C 6% 0% 33% 0mm 83% 0mm - -49° 7% 0mm - - 2.7m/s
02:00
991hPa 149J/kg 3% 1.7°C 5% 0% 39% 0mm 83% 0.01mm -17dBZ -43° 8% 0.06mm 8.8m/s 15m/s 2.5m/s
03:00
991hPa 126J/kg 5% 1.7°C 9% 0% 39% 0mm 83% 0mm - -34° 12% 0mm - - 2m/s
04:00
991hPa 99J/kg 84% 1.8°C 1% 0% 39% 0mm 82% 0mm - -23° 84% 0mm - - 2.3m/s
05:00
991hPa 89J/kg 14% 1.8°C 1% 0% 39% 0mm 82% 0mm -11dBZ -11° 14% 0mm 7.4m/s 11m/s 2.5m/s
06:00
991hPa 81J/kg 4% 1.9°C 2% 0% 51% 0mm 81% 0mm - 2.2° 4% 0mm - - 2.3m/s
07:00
992hPa 89J/kg 5% 1.6°C 3% 0% 64% 0mm 78% 0mm - 15° 5% 0mm - - 2.7m/s
08:00
992hPa 105J/kg 5% 1.3°C 1% 0% 76% 0mm 74% 0mm 0.63dBZ 29° 5% 0mm 8.1m/s 11m/s 2.8m/s
09:00
992hPa 150J/kg 3% 0.9°C 26% 0% 64% 0mm 70% 0.01mm - 43° 27% 0mm - - 2.5m/s
10:00
992hPa 197J/kg 5% 0.5°C 49% 0% 52% 0mm 68% 0.02mm - 57° 49% 0.06mm - - 3.2m/s
11:00
992hPa 249J/kg 46% 0°C 52% 0% 39% 0mm 66% 0.01mm -4dBZ 71° 75% 0.06mm 9.6m/s 15m/s 2.8m/s
12:00
992hPa 337J/kg 8% -0.3°C 61% 0% 39% 0mm 67% 0.1mm - 85° 62% 0.25mm - - 3m/s
13:00
991hPa 392J/kg 5% -0.5°C 45% 0% 38% 0mm 69% 0.26mm - 81° 45% 0.63mm - - 2.7m/s
14:00
991hPa 350J/kg 5% -0.4°C 59% 0% 37% 0.03mm 69% 0.83mm -1.3dBZ 67° 59% 1.4mm 10m/s 16m/s 1.2m/s
15:00
990hPa 340J/kg 1% -0.6°C 75% 0% 28% 0mm 68% 0.05mm - 53° 75% 0.56mm - - 0.35m/s
16:00
991hPa 293J/kg 0% -0.7°C 90% 0% 19% 0mm 70% 0.13mm - 39° 90% 0.81mm - - 0.63m/s
17:00
990hPa 292J/kg 0% -1.1°C 55% 0% 10% 0mm 70% 0.03mm -2.9dBZ 25° 55% 0.81mm 10m/s 17m/s 1.5m/s
18:00
991hPa 236J/kg 0% -0.9°C 40% 0% 13% 0mm 72% 0.02mm - 12° 40% 0.88mm - - 2.5m/s
19:00
991hPa 141J/kg 0% -0.6°C 23% 0% 16% 0mm 76% 0.02mm - -1.2° 23% 0.94mm - - 4.1m/s
20:00
992hPa 138J/kg 0% -0.6°C 27% 0% 18% 0mm 79% 0mm 4.1dBZ -14° 27% 0.94mm 11m/s 18m/s 3.9m/s
21:00
992hPa 98J/kg 1% -0.5°C 16% 0% 19% 0mm 79% 0mm - -26° 16% 0mm - - 3m/s
22:00
993hPa 84J/kg 0% -0.4°C 8% 0% 19% 0mm 79% 0.08mm - -37° 8% 0mm - - 3m/s
23:00
993hPa 95J/kg 0% -0.6°C 4% 0% 20% 0mm 80% 0mm -18dBZ -45° 4% 0mm 9m/s 16m/s 3m/s
Tue, May 19 Sunrise 05:47 Sunset 18:57
24:00
992hPa 107J/kg 2% -0.9°C 12% 0% 47% 0mm 81% 0.01mm - -49° 13% 0.06mm - - 2.5m/s
01:00
992hPa 115J/kg 5% -0.9°C 10% 0% 73% 0mm 81% 0.08mm - -48° 12% 0.06mm - - 2.2m/s
02:00
991hPa 108J/kg 2% -0.8°C 12% 0% 100% 0mm 81% 0.01mm -16dBZ -43° 13% 0.06mm 8.7m/s 16m/s 2.5m/s
03:00
991hPa 91J/kg 0% -0.5°C 11% 0% 83% 0mm 82% 0.01mm - -34° 11% 0mm - - 2.8m/s
04:00
991hPa 89J/kg 2% -0.4°C 17% 0% 67% 0mm 82% 0.01mm - -23° 18% 0mm - - 2.2m/s
05:00
991hPa 76J/kg 0% -0.1°C 10% 0% 50% 0mm 82% 0.01mm -20dBZ -11° 10% 0mm 7.6m/s 16m/s 3m/s
06:00
992hPa 70J/kg 0% 0.1°C 14% 0% 52% 0mm 83% 0mm - 2.3° 14% 0mm - - 3.5m/s
07:00
992hPa 31J/kg 0% 0.1°C 17% 0% 54% 0mm 77% 0mm - 15° 17% 0.06mm - - 3m/s
08:00
992hPa 31J/kg 0% -0.2°C 14% 0% 56% 0mm 72% 0mm 1.7dBZ 29° 14% 0.06mm 7.3m/s 16m/s 2.3m/s
09:00
992hPa 56J/kg 0% -0.4°C 18% 0% 54% 0mm 70% 0.03mm - 43° 18% 0mm - - 3.4m/s
10:00
992hPa 78J/kg 0% -0.6°C 28% 0% 52% 0mm 66% 0.05mm - 57° 28% 0.06mm - - 3.4m/s
11:00
992hPa 138J/kg 0% -0.8°C 44% 0% 49% 0mm 64% 0.03mm -16dBZ 71° 44% 0.13mm 8.1m/s 15m/s 2.8m/s
12:00
992hPa 123J/kg 0% -0.6°C 56% 0% 52% 0mm 63% 0.66mm - 85° 56% 0.19mm - - 1.8m/s
13:00
991hPa 123J/kg 0% -0.8°C 60% 0% 54% 0mm 62% 0.04mm - 81° 60% 0.31mm - - 1.1m/s
14:00
991hPa 122J/kg 0% -1°C 70% 0% 56% 0mm 61% 0.03mm -17dBZ 67° 70% 0.38mm 9.6m/s 14m/s 2m/s
15:00
990hPa 103J/kg 0% -1°C 79% 0% 38% 0mm 63% 0.03mm - 53° 79% 0.06mm - - 1.6m/s
16:00
990hPa 130J/kg 0% -1.1°C 67% 0% 19% 0mm 67% 0.06mm - 39° 67% 0.13mm - - 2.7m/s
17:00
991hPa 152J/kg 0% -1.2°C 37% 0% 0% 0mm 70% 0.04mm 13dBZ 25° 37% 0.19mm 9m/s 12m/s 3.9m/s
18:00
991hPa 138J/kg 4% -1.5°C 49% 0% 13% 0mm 73% 0.04mm - 12° 49% 0.25mm - - 4.6m/s
19:00
992hPa 116J/kg 5% -1.5°C 19% 0% 26% 0mm 78% 0.03mm - -1° 20% 0.25mm - - 5.1m/s
20:00
992hPa 71J/kg 5% -1.1°C 15% 0% 39% 0mm 79% 0.03mm -14dBZ -14° 17% 0.31mm 10m/s 15m/s 4.6m/s
21:00
993hPa 14J/kg 34% -0.4°C 17% 0% 37% 0mm 78% 0.01mm - -26° 49% 0mm - - 4.7m/s
22:00
993hPa 13J/kg 5% -0.5°C 19% 0% 34% 0mm 78% 0mm - -36° 20% 0mm - - 4.6m/s
23:00
993hPa 14J/kg 5% -0.6°C 20% 0% 32% 0mm 78% 0mm -11dBZ -45° 21% 0mm 8.3m/s 14m/s 4.3m/s
Wed, May 20 Sunrise 05:46 Sunset 18:58
24:00
993hPa 14J/kg 8% -0.5°C 24% 0% 28% 0mm 79% 0mm - -49° 25% 0mm - - 4.3m/s
01:00
993hPa 7J/kg 8% -0.2°C 29% 0% 25% 0mm 79% 0.01mm - -48° 33% 0.06mm - - 4m/s
02:00
992hPa 5J/kg 60% 0.1°C 22% 0% 22% 0.01mm 79% 0mm 3.8dBZ -43° 60% 0.06mm 6.3m/s 12m/s 4.2m/s
03:00
997hPa 12J/kg 40% 0.48°C 22% 0% 28% 0.007mm 80% 0.03mm - -34° 47% 0.13mm - - 6m/s
04:00
1002hPa 19J/kg 20% 0.85°C 21% 0% 33% 0.003mm 81% 0.07mm - -23° 34% 0.19mm - - 7.7m/s
05:00
1008hPa 26J/kg 0% 1.2°C 21% 0% 39% 0mm 83% 0.1mm 6.2dBZ -11° 21% 0.25mm 6.1m/s 12m/s 9.5m/s
06:00
1008hPa 38J/kg 0% 1.5°C 20% 0% 53% 0mm 82% 0.13mm - 2.4° 20% 0.33mm - - 9.4m/s
07:00
1007hPa 49J/kg 0% 1.8°C 19% 0% 68% 0mm 82% 0.17mm - 15° 19% 0.42mm - - 9.4m/s
08:00
1007hPa 61J/kg 0% 2.1°C 18% 0% 82% 0mm 82% 0.2mm 12dBZ 29° 18% 0.5mm 8.9m/s 14m/s 9.3m/s
09:00
1007hPa 61J/kg 0% 2°C 16% 0% 62% 0.007mm 82% 0.14mm - 43° 16% 0.44mm - - 9m/s
10:00
1007hPa 60J/kg 0% 2°C 14% 0% 42% 0.01mm 82% 0.08mm - 57° 14% 0.38mm - - 8.7m/s
11:00
1007hPa 60J/kg 0% 2°C 12% 0% 22% 0.02mm 82% 0.02mm -9.7dBZ 71° 12% 0.31mm 10m/s 16m/s 8.4m/s
12:00
1007hPa 53J/kg 0% 2.1°C 14% 0% 28% 0.02mm 82% 0.01mm - 85° 14% 0.35mm - - 8.6m/s
13:00
1008hPa 47J/kg 0% 2.2°C 16% 0% 33% 0.02mm 82% 0.007mm - 81° 16% 0.4mm - - 8.8m/s
14:00
1008hPa 40J/kg 0% 2.2°C 18% 0% 39% 0.02mm 82% 0mm 6.2dBZ 67° 18% 0.44mm 8.8m/s 14m/s 9m/s
15:00
1008hPa 38J/kg 0% 2.5°C 16% 0% 39% 0.01mm 82% 0.02mm - 53° 16% 0.33mm - - 9m/s
16:00
1009hPa 35J/kg 0% 2.8°C 14% 0% 39% 0.007mm 82% 0.03mm - 39° 14% 0.23mm - - 9m/s
17:00
1009hPa 33J/kg 0% 3.1°C 12% 0% 39% 0mm 82% 0.05mm -3.4dBZ 26° 12% 0.13mm 8.6m/s 13m/s 8.9m/s
18:00
1008hPa 34J/kg 0% 3.1°C 16% 0% 45% 0.007mm 82% 0.04mm - 12° 16% 0.19mm - - 9m/s
19:00
1008hPa 36J/kg 0% 3.1°C 21% 0% 50% 0.01mm 82% 0.02mm - -0.93° 21% 0.25mm - - 9m/s
20:00
1007hPa 37J/kg 0% 3.1°C 25% 0% 56% 0.02mm 82% 0.01mm -6.3dBZ -14° 25% 0.31mm 6.7m/s 14m/s 9.1m/s
21:00
1007hPa 36J/kg 0% 3.1°C 26% 0% 50% 0.01mm 81% 0.03mm - -26° 26% 0.27mm - - 9.1m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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