Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Wailea, Hawaii

Kīhei, Hawaii, United States

Wailea's lava-rock points divide sandy coves along South Maui, framing palms, offshore islets, and the neighboring island of Kahoʻolawe.

8 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.

Hourly forecast scores

Forecast valid from Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC (one hour; not an observation)

Storm Intensity

18%

CAPE140

Lifted Index-2.4°C

Wind Gusts6.7m/s

Precipitation0.2mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

First upcoming window

Weak Storm

Wailea

Wed, Oct 28 · 02:00–03:00 · 1h window

Low confidence

33%

⛈️Storm Intensity47.8%

CAPE: 250

Lifted Index: 0.9°C

Wind Gusts: 3.2m/s

Precipitation: 4.7mm

Weak Storm

Wailea

Wed, Oct 28 · 05:00–06:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:40.6%

Low

Weak Storm

Wailea

Wed, Oct 28 · 08:00–15:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:41.6-53.7%

Low

Weak Storm at Sunset

Wailea

Wed, Oct 28 · 17:00–18:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:43.5%

Low

Weak Storm at Sunset

Wailea

Wed, Oct 28 · 20:00–21:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:42.2%

Low

Weak Storm at Sunset

Wailea

Thu, Oct 29 · 17:00–18:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:44.1%

Low

Weak Storm

Wailea

Thu, Oct 29 · 20:00–21:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:45%

Low

+1 more windows in the next 14 days

71-hour requirements breakdown

When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 71-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu.

Requirements breakdown is temporarily unavailable or expired. This does not mean no opportunities.

Supporting forecast inputs

Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.

Forecast time (Pacific/Honolulu)	Air Pressure	CAPE	Convective Precip Fraction	Lifted Index	Precipitation Chance	Rainfall	Showers	Simulated Reflectivity	Total Precipitation	Visibility	Wind Gusts	Wind Shear 0-3 km	Wind Shear 0-6 km	Wind Speed
Thu, Oct 22, 2026Sunrise 06:23 · Sunset 17:56
11:00	1013hPa	140J/kg	0fraction	-2.4°C	0%	0.2mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.2mm	8860m	6.7m/s	3.2m/s	5.3m/s	2.2m/s
12:00	1012hPa	110J/kg	0.33fraction	-2.4°C	0%	0.1mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0.1mm	8900m	6.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.4m/s
13:00	1011hPa	100J/kg	0.67fraction	-2.4°C	0%	0.2mm	0mm	-13dBZ	0.2mm	8620m	7.3m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3m/s
14:00	1010hPa	90J/kg	1fraction	-2.5°C	0%	0.2mm	0mm	-10dBZ	0.2mm	8060m	8.4m/s	5.8m/s	8.3m/s	3.5m/s
15:00	1010hPa	60J/kg	0.77fraction	-2.1°C	0%	0.1mm	0mm	-13dBZ	0.1mm	8880m	8.6m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.2m/s
16:00	1011hPa	60J/kg	0.55fraction	-1.8°C	0%	0.2mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0.2mm	11740m	8.3m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.4m/s
17:00	1011hPa	30J/kg	0.32fraction	-1.5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	47480m	8.1m/s	9.1m/s	13m/s	2.8m/s
18:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0.33fraction	-0.8°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	43020m	6.5m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2m/s
19:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0.35fraction	0.3°C	4%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	42980m	4.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.2m/s
20:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0.36fraction	0.9°C	6%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	42880m	3.7m/s	9.6m/s	15m/s	1.4m/s
21:00 Night	1014hPa	0J/kg	0.29fraction	0.9°C	7%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	42800m	3.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.3m/s
22:00 Night	1014hPa	10J/kg	0.22fraction	1.4°C	7%	0mm	0mm	-19dBZ	0mm	37280m	3.3m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.1m/s
23:00 Night	1014hPa	0J/kg	0.15fraction	1.6°C	6%	0.1mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.1mm	10640m	3.1m/s	10m/s	15m/s	0.97m/s
Fri, Oct 23, 2026Sunrise 06:24 · Sunset 17:55
24:00 Night	1014hPa	0J/kg	0.1fraction	1.7°C	5%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	42720m	2.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	0.81m/s
01:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0.05fraction	1.6°C	3%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	42760m	2.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.1m/s
02:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.4°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	40920m	3.2m/s	6.3m/s	11m/s	1.5m/s
03:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.3°C	1%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	42860m	3.5m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.7m/s
04:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	34520m	3.5m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.5m/s
05:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	360m	3.8m/s	4.1m/s	8.9m/s	1.8m/s
06:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	240m	3.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.7m/s
07:00	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	260m	4.1m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.2m/s
08:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	2100m	5.3m/s	5.5m/s	11m/s	2.4m/s
09:00	1014hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	0.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	7380m	8.4m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4m/s
10:00	1014hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	0.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	47080m	10m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.8m/s
11:00	1013hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	0.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-11dBZ	0mm	24640m	11m/s	6.1m/s	12m/s	5.2m/s
12:00	1013hPa	20J/kg	0fraction	0.3°C	2%	0.1mm	0mm	-11dBZ	0.1mm	10480m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.7m/s
13:00	1012hPa	20J/kg	0fraction	0.1°C	6%	0.2mm	0mm	-12dBZ	0.2mm	7520m	13m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6.5m/s
14:00	1011hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	0°C	8%	0.1mm	0mm	-12dBZ	0.1mm	47380m	14m/s	6.7m/s	10m/s	6.9m/s
15:00	1011hPa	10J/kg	0.18fraction	0.1°C	8%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	13240m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	7.1m/s
16:00	1012hPa	10J/kg	0.37fraction	0.3°C	7%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	21380m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	7.1m/s
17:00	1012hPa	10J/kg	0.55fraction	0.5°C	6%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	18460m	14m/s	7.3m/s	12m/s	6m/s
18:00 Night	1012hPa	10J/kg	0.43fraction	0.5°C	4%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	42840m	11m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.2m/s
19:00 Night	1013hPa	20J/kg	0.3fraction	0.7°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	42740m	9.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.5m/s
20:00 Night	1014hPa	20J/kg	0.18fraction	1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	42620m	8.7m/s	7.6m/s	13m/s	4.1m/s
21:00 Night	1014hPa	20J/kg	0.12fraction	1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	42580m	8.5m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.5m/s
22:00 Night	1015hPa	20J/kg	0.06fraction	0.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	1120m	8.5m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.3m/s
23:00 Night	1015hPa	20J/kg	0fraction	1.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-18dBZ	0mm	1260m	8.1m/s	8m/s	13m/s	4.1m/s
Sat, Oct 24, 2026Sunrise 06:24 · Sunset 17:54
24:00 Night	1014hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	1.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	2320m	7.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.7m/s
01:00 Night	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-13dBZ	0mm	37240m	6.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.6m/s
02:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-11dBZ	0mm	37040m	7.6m/s	6.8m/s	14m/s	4.1m/s
03:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.3°C	1%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	23600m	7.6m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.1m/s
04:00 Night	1013hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	1.3°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	29800m	7.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.2m/s
05:00 Night	1013hPa	20J/kg	0fraction	1.6°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-19dBZ	0mm	540m	7.8m/s	4.4m/s	13m/s	4m/s
06:00 Night	1013hPa	30J/kg	0fraction	1.6°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	380m	7.6m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.9m/s
07:00	1014hPa	20J/kg	0fraction	1.3°C	1%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	1640m	7.4m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.9m/s
08:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	40120m	8.1m/s	5.4m/s	14m/s	4.2m/s
09:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	25220m	11m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.4m/s
10:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	46960m	13m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6.2m/s
11:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-18dBZ	0mm	28820m	14m/s	5.5m/s	14m/s	7m/s
12:00	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.2°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	47160m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	7.1m/s
13:00	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.1°C	4%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	47240m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6.8m/s
14:00	1011hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.5°C	6%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	36740m	14m/s	4.7m/s	13m/s	7m/s
15:00	1011hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.6°C	7%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	47360m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	7.2m/s
16:00	1011hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.6°C	6%	0mm	0mm	-19dBZ	0mm	47320m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	7.4m/s
17:00	1011hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.6°C	6%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	47300m	14m/s	6.3m/s	11m/s	6.8m/s
18:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.3°C	5%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	31840m	13m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6.5m/s
19:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.6°C	5%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	30760m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6m/s
20:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.2°C	4%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	39780m	11m/s	6.6m/s	11m/s	5.7m/s
21:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.9°C	3%	0mm	0mm	-12dBZ	0mm	42700m	10m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.3m/s
22:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.1°C	3%	0mm	0mm	-4.3dBZ	0mm	42720m	9.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.8m/s
23:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4°C	2%	0mm	0mm	3.6dBZ	0mm	42080m	8.7m/s	6.4m/s	11m/s	4.3m/s
Sun, Oct 25, 2026Sunrise 06:25 · Sunset 17:54
24:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.8°C	2%	0mm	0mm	1.4dBZ	0mm	41600m	7.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.5m/s
01:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-0.77dBZ	0mm	42780m	6.6m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.1m/s
02:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-2.9dBZ	0mm	34180m	5.9m/s	6.4m/s	15m/s	3m/s
03:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.1°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-5.7dBZ	0mm	31200m	6.1m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.2m/s
04:00 Night	1011hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.5°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-8.5dBZ	0mm	33140m	5.9m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.9m/s
05:00 Night	1011hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.5°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-11dBZ	0mm	33880m	5.6m/s	7m/s	14m/s	3m/s
06:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0.07fraction	3.5°C	1%	0mm	0mm	-12dBZ	0mm	33800m	5.9m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.1m/s
07:00	1013hPa	0J/kg	0.15fraction	3.3°C	1%	0mm	0mm	-12dBZ	0mm	11200m	6m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.1m/s
08:00	1013hPa	10J/kg	0.22fraction	2.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-12dBZ	0mm	35460m	7.5m/s	6.7m/s	12m/s	3.9m/s
09:00	1013hPa	60J/kg	0.48fraction	2.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	42600m	8.6m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.1m/s
10:00	1013hPa	30J/kg	0.74fraction	2.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	42580m	10m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.8m/s

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Wailea.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Wailea during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 51% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 51% average confidence

Most represented month

September, with 15 of 22 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

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