Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Manoa Falls, Hawaii

Honolulu, Hawaii, United States

Manoa Falls descends a dark basalt wall within dense rainforest, where bamboo, broad leaves, and the narrow trail create intimate vertical frames.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

17%

CAPE26

Lifted Index4.2°C

Wind Gusts10.8m/s

Precipitation0.1mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

Next opportunity

Weak Storm

Manoa Falls

Sat, Aug 15 · 14:00–15:00 · 1h window

Low confidence

35%

⛈️Storm Intensity40%

CAPE: 557

Lifted Index: -0.9°C

Wind Gusts: 17.5m/s

Precipitation: 0.2mm

Moderate Storm

Manoa Falls

Sun, Aug 16 · 07:00–10:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:48.3-55.5%

Low

Weak Storm

Manoa Falls

Sun, Aug 16 · 11:00–12:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:43%

Low

Weak Storm

Manoa Falls

Sun, Aug 16 · 14:00–15:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:40%

Low

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Manoa Falls.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Manoa Falls during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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81-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 81-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

1matching hours in the next 81 hoursJump to next match

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Wed, Aug 12
18:00	0%
19:00	17%
20:00	20%
21:00	21%
22:00	19%
23:00	20%
Thu, Aug 13
24:00	19%
01:00	22%
02:00	23%
03:00	17%
04:00	17%
05:00	19%
06:00	16%
07:00	15%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	16%
14:00	19%
15:00	16%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	17%
20:00	20%
21:00	17%
22:00	17%
23:00	0%
Fri, Aug 14
24:00	19%
01:00	19%
02:00	22%
03:00	23%
04:00	18%
05:00	19%
06:00	17%
07:00	0%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	19%
15:00	17%
16:00	20%
17:00	13%
18:00	18%
19:00	19%
20:00	24%
21:00	25%
22:00	25%
23:00	26%
Sat, Aug 15
24:00	27%
01:00	31%
02:00	35%
03:00	30%
04:00	30%
05:00	32%
06:00	30%
07:00	36%
08:00	37%
09:00	35%
10:00	38%
11:00	38%
12:00	39%
13:00	39%
14:00	40%
15:00	33%
16:00	36%
17:00	35%
18:00	31%
19:00	32%
20:00	34%
21:00	32%
22:00	33%
23:00	35%
Sun, Aug 16
24:00	36%
01:00	36%
02:00	35%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Thu, Aug 13 Sunrise 06:09 Sunset 19:02
04:00 ☾	1007hPa	26J/kg	0.77fraction	4.2°C	28%	0mm	0.01mm	-5.3dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	11m/s	-	-	8.6m/s
05:00 ☾	1007hPa	26J/kg	1fraction	4.5°C	0%	0mm	0.04mm	1.9dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	11m/s	5.8m/s	6.1m/s	8.1m/s
06:00 ☾	1007hPa	24J/kg	0.73fraction	5.1°C	13%	0mm	0.03mm	-5.3dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	10m/s	-	-	7.6m/s
07:00	1008hPa	26J/kg	0.47fraction	5.3°C	26%	0mm	0.02mm	-12dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	10m/s	-	-	7.9m/s
08:00	1008hPa	17J/kg	0.2fraction	5.4°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	11m/s	7.3m/s	5.2m/s	9.4m/s
09:00	1008hPa	14J/kg	0.14fraction	5.5°C	29%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	9.5m/s
10:00	1008hPa	12J/kg	0.07fraction	5.6°C	19%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	9.6m/s
11:00	1008hPa	8J/kg	0fraction	5.3°C	8%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	12m/s	6.4m/s	5.8m/s	9.7m/s
12:00	1007hPa	3J/kg	0.22fraction	5°C	19%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	9.5m/s
13:00	1007hPa	3J/kg	0.44fraction	4.6°C	29%	0mm	0.01mm	-9.8dBZ	0mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	9.9m/s
14:00 ☾	1006hPa	0J/kg	0.66fraction	4.5°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-4.8dBZ	0mm	24135m	12m/s	7.1m/s	7.8m/s	10m/s
15:00 ☾	1006hPa	0J/kg	0.44fraction	4.6°C	36%	0mm	0mm	-9.7dBZ	0mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	10m/s
16:00 ☾	1005hPa	5J/kg	0.22fraction	4.4°C	34%	0mm	0.01mm	-15dBZ	0mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	10m/s
17:00 ☾	1005hPa	5J/kg	0fraction	4.4°C	31%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	12m/s	7.5m/s	6.7m/s	10m/s
18:00 ☾	1006hPa	6J/kg	0fraction	4.1°C	48%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	11m/s
19:00 ☾	1006hPa	9J/kg	0fraction	3.8°C	65%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	10m/s
20:00 ☾	1006hPa	11J/kg	0fraction	3.8°C	82%	0.01mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	13m/s	8.7m/s	5.7m/s	10m/s
21:00 ☾	1007hPa	4J/kg	0fraction	4°C	73%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	9.9m/s
22:00 ☾	1007hPa	8J/kg	0fraction	3.4°C	64%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	10m/s
23:00 ☾	1007hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.2°C	55%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	8.7m/s	4.3m/s	10m/s
Fri, Aug 14 Sunrise 06:09 Sunset 19:01
24:00 ☾	1007hPa	0J/kg	0.06fraction	4.2°C	70%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	14m/s	-	-	10m/s
01:00 ☾	1006hPa	7J/kg	0.13fraction	3.9°C	84%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	10m/s
02:00 ☾	1006hPa	8J/kg	0.19fraction	3.6°C	98%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	14m/s	7.2m/s	3.2m/s	11m/s
03:00 ☾	1005hPa	12J/kg	0.46fraction	3.5°C	79%	0mm	0.01mm	-14dBZ	0mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	10m/s
04:00 ☾	1005hPa	13J/kg	0.73fraction	3.5°C	59%	0mm	0.01mm	-9.1dBZ	0mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	10m/s
05:00 ☾	1006hPa	19J/kg	1fraction	3.8°C	40%	0mm	0.02mm	-3.8dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	7.4m/s	5.7m/s	10m/s
06:00 ☾	1006hPa	19J/kg	0.69fraction	4°C	39%	0mm	0.03mm	-9.2dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	11m/s
07:00	1006hPa	15J/kg	0.38fraction	4.5°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-15dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	11m/s
08:00	1007hPa	8J/kg	0.07fraction	5.1°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	13m/s	4.7m/s	5.7m/s	11m/s
09:00	1007hPa	3J/kg	0.05fraction	5.2°C	26%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	11m/s
10:00	1007hPa	4J/kg	0.02fraction	5.2°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	11m/s
11:00	1007hPa	7J/kg	0fraction	4.5°C	0%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	5.2m/s	5.5m/s	11m/s
12:00	1007hPa	10J/kg	0.05fraction	3.7°C	27%	0mm	0.01mm	-18dBZ	0mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	12m/s
13:00	1006hPa	2J/kg	0.09fraction	3.6°C	55%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	24134m	14m/s	-	-	12m/s
14:00 ☾	1006hPa	0J/kg	0.14fraction	4°C	82%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	6m/s	4.8m/s	11m/s
15:00 ☾	1005hPa	0J/kg	0.09fraction	4°C	73%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	11m/s
16:00 ☾	1005hPa	0J/kg	0.05fraction	3.8°C	64%	0mm	0mm	-18dBZ	0mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	11m/s
17:00 ☾	1005hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.1°C	56%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	14m/s	6.2m/s	4.1m/s	11m/s
18:00 ☾	1005hPa	7J/kg	0.29fraction	2.2°C	64%	0mm	0.01mm	-18dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	11m/s
19:00 ☾	1006hPa	12J/kg	0.57fraction	1.8°C	73%	0mm	0.01mm	-15dBZ	0mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	10m/s
20:00 ☾	1006hPa	14J/kg	0.86fraction	1.6°C	82%	0mm	0.02mm	-13dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	13m/s	8.4m/s	4.3m/s	11m/s
21:00 ☾	1006hPa	11J/kg	0.9fraction	1°C	84%	0mm	0.01mm	-11dBZ	0mm	24135m	14m/s	-	-	10m/s
22:00 ☾	1007hPa	30J/kg	0.95fraction	0.5°C	86%	0mm	0.01mm	-8.6dBZ	0mm	24134m	15m/s	-	-	11m/s
23:00 ☾	1007hPa	82J/kg	1fraction	0.3°C	87%	0mm	0.03mm	-6.2dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	15m/s	9.3m/s	4.9m/s	11m/s
Sat, Aug 15 Sunrise 06:10 Sunset 19:01
24:00 ☾	1006hPa	170J/kg	1fraction	-0.1°C	89%	0mm	0.07mm	-3.3dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	15m/s	-	-	11m/s
01:00 ☾	1005hPa	251J/kg	1fraction	-0.3°C	90%	0.01mm	0.1mm	-0.35dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	15m/s	-	-	11m/s
02:00 ☾	1005hPa	306J/kg	1fraction	-0.2°C	92%	0mm	0.15mm	2.5dBZ	0.31mm	24135m	16m/s	9.8m/s	5.4m/s	11m/s
03:00 ☾	1004hPa	332J/kg	0.9fraction	0°C	88%	0mm	0.18mm	5dBZ	0.13mm	20479m	16m/s	-	-	12m/s
04:00 ☾	1004hPa	413J/kg	0.8fraction	0.1°C	85%	0mm	0.13mm	7.4dBZ	0.25mm	24134m	16m/s	-	-	12m/s
05:00 ☾	1004hPa	415J/kg	0.7fraction	0°C	82%	0mm	0.16mm	9.8dBZ	0.38mm	24134m	16m/s	9.1m/s	4.7m/s	12m/s
06:00 ☾	1005hPa	487J/kg	0.54fraction	-0.3°C	87%	0.01mm	0.11mm	9.2dBZ	0.5mm	24134m	16m/s	-	-	12m/s
07:00	1005hPa	582J/kg	0.38fraction	-0.7°C	92%	0mm	0.07mm	8.5dBZ	0.56mm	24135m	16m/s	-	-	12m/s
08:00	1006hPa	650J/kg	0.21fraction	-1.3°C	98%	0mm	0.05mm	7.9dBZ	0.63mm	24134m	17m/s	7.2m/s	3.6m/s	13m/s
09:00	1006hPa	667J/kg	0.47fraction	-0.9°C	94%	0mm	0.04mm	6.5dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	17m/s	-	-	14m/s
10:00	1006hPa	670J/kg	0.74fraction	-0.9°C	91%	0mm	0.04mm	5dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	18m/s	-	-	14m/s
11:00	1006hPa	647J/kg	1fraction	-0.7°C	88%	0mm	0.04mm	3.6dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	18m/s	7.1m/s	4.3m/s	15m/s
12:00	1005hPa	617J/kg	0.81fraction	-0.6°C	91%	0mm	0.02mm	2.5dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	17m/s	-	-	14m/s
13:00	1005hPa	626J/kg	0.62fraction	-0.7°C	94%	0mm	0.02mm	1.3dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	17m/s	-	-	14m/s
14:00 ☾	1004hPa	557J/kg	0.43fraction	-0.9°C	98%	0mm	0.03mm	0.06dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	18m/s	5.3m/s	4.7m/s	14m/s
15:00 ☾	996hPa	404J/kg	0.62fraction	-0.52°C	90%	0mm	0.06mm	-1.4dBZ	0.23mm	24116m	17m/s	-	-	12m/s
16:00 ☾	989hPa	250J/kg	0.81fraction	-0.14°C	83%	0mm	0.09mm	-2.8dBZ	0.27mm	24096m	16m/s	-	-	10m/s
17:00 ☾	981hPa	97J/kg	1fraction	0.24°C	76%	0mm	0.12mm	-4.2dBZ	0.31mm	24077m	15m/s	4.8m/s	6m/s	8.2m/s
18:00 ☾	981hPa	110J/kg	0.82fraction	0.12°C	81%	0.02mm	0.09mm	-3.5dBZ	0.4mm	24086m	14m/s	-	-	7.7m/s
19:00 ☾	980hPa	122J/kg	0.65fraction	-0.007°C	86%	0.03mm	0.07mm	-2.9dBZ	0.48mm	24095m	14m/s	-	-	7.3m/s
20:00 ☾	980hPa	135J/kg	0.47fraction	-0.13°C	91%	0.05mm	0.04mm	-2.3dBZ	0.56mm	24104m	14m/s	5m/s	7.4m/s	6.8m/s
21:00 ☾	979hPa	100J/kg	0.65fraction	-0.36°C	88%	0.04mm	0.05mm	-1.4dBZ	0.48mm	24114m	14m/s	-	-	7.2m/s
22:00 ☾	979hPa	66J/kg	0.82fraction	-0.58°C	86%	0.02mm	0.07mm	-0.63dBZ	0.4mm	24125m	14m/s	-	-	7.6m/s
23:00 ☾	979hPa	31J/kg	1fraction	-0.81°C	84%	0.01mm	0.08mm	0.18dBZ	0.31mm	24135m	14m/s	8.4m/s	7.7m/s	7.9m/s
Sun, Aug 16 Sunrise 06:10 Sunset 19:00
24:00 ☾	979hPa	33J/kg	1fraction	-0.81°C	81%	0.02mm	0.08mm	2.6dBZ	0.44mm	23687m	15m/s	-	-	8.3m/s
01:00 ☾	980hPa	34J/kg	1fraction	-0.81°C	77%	0.04mm	0.09mm	4.9dBZ	0.56mm	23238m	15m/s	-	-	8.8m/s
02:00 ☾	980hPa	36J/kg	1fraction	-0.8°C	74%	0.05mm	0.09mm	7.3dBZ	0.69mm	22790m	16m/s	3.6m/s	6.3m/s	9.2m/s
03:00 ☾	980hPa	72J/kg	1fraction	-1.3°C	58%	0.04mm	0.07mm	7.4dBZ	0.58mm	23238m	17m/s	-	-	9.7m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 13, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC

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