Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Manoa Falls, Hawaii

Honolulu, Hawaii, United States

Manoa Falls descends a dark basalt wall within dense rainforest, where bamboo, broad leaves, and the narrow trail create intimate vertical frames.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

33%

CAPE417

Lifted Index-1.6°C

Wind Gusts8.5m/s

Precipitation0.1mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

Next opportunity

Weak Storm

Manoa Falls

Today · 14:00–15:00 · 1h window

Medium confidence

53%

⛈️Storm Intensity46.7%

CAPE: 476

Lifted Index: -2.5°C

Wind Gusts: 7.7m/s

Precipitation: 0.5mm

Weak Storm

Manoa Falls

Today · 17:00–18:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:40.7%

Medium

Weak Storm at Sunset

Manoa Falls

Today · 18:00–19:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:52.8%

Medium

Weak Storm at Dusk

Manoa Falls

Today · 19:00–20:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:48.9%

Medium

Moderate Storm

Manoa Falls

Today · 20:00–22:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:42.5-68.9%

Medium

Weak Storm

Manoa Falls

Tomorrow · 01:00–03:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:45.5-50.4%

Low

Weak Storm at Dawn

Manoa Falls

Tomorrow · 05:00–06:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:43.6%

Medium

+8 more windows in the next 14 days

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Manoa Falls.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Manoa Falls during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 62% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 62% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 62% average confidence

Only 5 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

Create your own Storm Chaser alerts

Get notified when these conditions match at your own locations.

Get this template

95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

21matching hours in the next 95 hoursJump to next match

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Sat, Sep 5
11:00	33%
12:00	28%
13:00	29%
14:00	33%
15:00	27%
16:00	28%
17:00	32%
18:00	28%
19:00	29%
20:00	29%
21:00	28%
22:00	28%
23:00	32%
Sun, Sep 6
24:00	27%
01:00	25%
02:00	31%
03:00	23%
04:00	23%
05:00	29%
06:00	26%
07:00	27%
08:00	33%
09:00	25%
10:00	25%
11:00	33%
12:00	30%
13:00	37%
14:00	47%
15:00	37%
16:00	38%
17:00	41%
18:00	53%
19:00	49%
20:00	69%
21:00	43%
22:00	31%
23:00	36%
Mon, Sep 7
24:00	33%
01:00	46%
02:00	50%
03:00	25%
04:00	32%
05:00	44%
06:00	27%
07:00	36%
08:00	37%
09:00	34%
10:00	34%
11:00	43%
12:00	37%
13:00	41%
14:00	46%
15:00	28%
16:00	31%
17:00	52%
18:00	31%
19:00	33%
20:00	42%
21:00	30%
22:00	44%
23:00	49%
Tue, Sep 8
24:00	35%
01:00	45%
02:00	56%
03:00	41%
04:00	40%
05:00	43%
06:00	42%
07:00	39%
08:00	34%
09:00	25%
10:00	19%
11:00	21%
12:00	27%
13:00	23%
14:00	26%
15:00	27%
16:00	24%
17:00	25%
18:00	24%
19:00	30%
20:00	26%
21:00	20%
22:00	19%
23:00	16%
Wed, Sep 9
24:00	16%
01:00	17%
02:00	0%
03:00	0%
04:00	19%
05:00	19%
06:00	19%
07:00	21%
08:00	25%
09:00	24%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Sun, Sep 6 Sunrise 06:16 Sunset 18:42
11:00	1003hPa	417J/kg	0.3fraction	-1.6°C	93%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	8.5m/s	9.7m/s	16m/s	8.3m/s
12:00	1003hPa	492J/kg	0.54fraction	-2.3°C	94%	0mm	0.02mm	-18dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	7.3m/s	-	-	7m/s
13:00	1002hPa	504J/kg	0.77fraction	-2.6°C	94%	0mm	0.03mm	-16dBZ	0.19mm	24134m	7.2m/s	-	-	7.1m/s
14:00 ☾	1002hPa	476J/kg	1fraction	-2.5°C	95%	0mm	0.9mm	-14dBZ	0.5mm	21484m	7.7m/s	8.3m/s	16m/s	7.4m/s
15:00 ☾	1001hPa	467J/kg	0.84fraction	-2.6°C	91%	0mm	0.52mm	-14dBZ	0.56mm	23835m	7.8m/s	-	-	7.6m/s
16:00 ☾	1001hPa	485J/kg	0.69fraction	-2.7°C	87%	0mm	0.55mm	-14dBZ	1.2mm	21747m	7.8m/s	-	-	7.8m/s
17:00 ☾	1001hPa	470J/kg	0.53fraction	-2.9°C	83%	0mm	1.1mm	-14dBZ	2.1mm	19799m	7.7m/s	6.4m/s	14m/s	7.9m/s
18:00 ☾	1002hPa	501J/kg	0.65fraction	-3.3°C	86%	0mm	1.6mm	-13dBZ	2.9mm	5065m	7.9m/s	-	-	7.7m/s
19:00 ☾	1002hPa	532J/kg	0.77fraction	-3.1°C	88%	0mm	1.4mm	-13dBZ	3.6mm	19872m	7.6m/s	-	-	7m/s
20:00 ☾	1003hPa	455J/kg	0.89fraction	-2.7°C	91%	0mm	2.5mm	-13dBZ	4.8mm	4687m	7.1m/s	11m/s	20m/s	6.3m/s
21:00 ☾	1004hPa	293J/kg	0.62fraction	-1.8°C	88%	0.53mm	2mm	-1.6dBZ	2.3mm	4820m	5.7m/s	-	-	4.7m/s
22:00 ☾	1004hPa	277J/kg	0.35fraction	-2.1°C	85%	0.14mm	0.03mm	10dBZ	3.1mm	24134m	3.7m/s	-	-	3.5m/s
23:00 ☾	1003hPa	267J/kg	0.08fraction	-2.9°C	82%	0mm	0.19mm	22dBZ	3.3mm	23887m	4.6m/s	6.4m/s	12m/s	4.3m/s
Mon, Sep 7 Sunrise 06:16 Sunset 18:41
24:00 ☾	1003hPa	324J/kg	0.23fraction	-2.4°C	84%	0.06mm	0.21mm	24dBZ	3.6mm	24134m	5.3m/s	-	-	4.9m/s
01:00 ☾	1002hPa	306J/kg	0.39fraction	-2.1°C	87%	0.84mm	1.1mm	26dBZ	4.5mm	4978m	5.6m/s	-	-	5m/s
02:00 ☾	1002hPa	240J/kg	0.54fraction	-1.2°C	89%	0.3mm	0.61mm	29dBZ	6.2mm	9986m	5.6m/s	3.9m/s	15m/s	4.9m/s
03:00 ☾	1001hPa	260J/kg	0.7fraction	-1.7°C	77%	0.03mm	0.18mm	27dBZ	0.38mm	24135m	5.2m/s	-	-	4.3m/s
04:00 ☾	1001hPa	258J/kg	0.85fraction	-2.1°C	66%	0.09mm	0.71mm	25dBZ	0.69mm	10139m	6.2m/s	-	-	5.1m/s
05:00 ☾	1001hPa	316J/kg	1fraction	-1.9°C	54%	0mm	1.4mm	24dBZ	1.6mm	7070m	8.5m/s	7.5m/s	19m/s	6.4m/s
06:00 ☾	1002hPa	303J/kg	0.79fraction	-1.7°C	53%	0mm	0.46mm	18dBZ	2.4mm	14977m	10m/s	-	-	8m/s
07:00	1002hPa	263J/kg	0.58fraction	-1.6°C	52%	0mm	0.53mm	13dBZ	2.8mm	21896m	9.5m/s	-	-	7.6m/s
08:00	1002hPa	236J/kg	0.37fraction	-1.7°C	51%	0mm	0.29mm	7.7dBZ	3.2mm	24134m	8.3m/s	14m/s	25m/s	7.1m/s
09:00	1002hPa	239J/kg	0.58fraction	-1.6°C	45%	0mm	0.88mm	8.4dBZ	0.44mm	8450m	7.9m/s	-	-	6.9m/s
10:00	1002hPa	228J/kg	0.78fraction	-1.3°C	38%	0mm	1.1mm	9.2dBZ	1.3mm	7143m	7.5m/s	-	-	6.4m/s
11:00	1002hPa	255J/kg	0.98fraction	-1.9°C	32%	0mm	0.66mm	10dBZ	1.8mm	11172m	7.6m/s	16m/s	22m/s	6.8m/s
12:00	1001hPa	257J/kg	0.79fraction	-1.9°C	39%	0mm	0.55mm	14dBZ	2.4mm	11216m	6.9m/s	-	-	6.3m/s
13:00	1001hPa	237J/kg	0.6fraction	-1.5°C	45%	0mm	1mm	17dBZ	3.1mm	9888m	6m/s	-	-	5.8m/s
14:00 ☾	1000hPa	237J/kg	0.41fraction	-1.6°C	52%	0mm	0.54mm	21dBZ	3.9mm	13156m	5.5m/s	14m/s	18m/s	5.6m/s
15:00 ☾	1000hPa	193J/kg	0.47fraction	-1.3°C	49%	0mm	1mm	18dBZ	0.94mm	10832m	5.7m/s	-	-	4.7m/s
16:00 ☾	1000hPa	110J/kg	0.53fraction	-0.9°C	46%	0mm	0.62mm	16dBZ	1.8mm	13180m	7.8m/s	-	-	4.8m/s
17:00 ☾	1000hPa	65J/kg	0.6fraction	-0.8°C	43%	0mm	0.86mm	13dBZ	2.3mm	8691m	11m/s	13m/s	16m/s	8.1m/s
18:00 ☾	1001hPa	146J/kg	0.53fraction	-0.9°C	53%	0mm	0.36mm	9.4dBZ	2.8mm	12716m	12m/s	-	-	8m/s
19:00 ☾	1001hPa	168J/kg	0.46fraction	-0.9°C	62%	0mm	0.25mm	5.6dBZ	3mm	13858m	12m/s	-	-	7.8m/s
20:00 ☾	1002hPa	218J/kg	0.39fraction	-1.1°C	72%	0mm	0.08mm	1.9dBZ	3.3mm	19399m	13m/s	14m/s	17m/s	8.4m/s
21:00 ☾	1002hPa	183J/kg	0.59fraction	-0.8°C	78%	0mm	0.45mm	-0.44dBZ	0.25mm	20609m	13m/s	-	-	8.5m/s
22:00 ☾	1002hPa	119J/kg	0.8fraction	-0.2°C	84%	0mm	0.68mm	-2.8dBZ	0.81mm	11637m	12m/s	-	-	8.3m/s
23:00 ☾	1002hPa	137J/kg	1fraction	-0.1°C	90%	0mm	0.45mm	-5.1dBZ	1.3mm	9422m	12m/s	16m/s	15m/s	8.2m/s
Tue, Sep 8 Sunrise 06:17 Sunset 18:40
24:00 ☾	1002hPa	151J/kg	0.88fraction	-0.1°C	92%	0mm	0.5mm	-1.6dBZ	1.7mm	10886m	12m/s	-	-	8m/s
01:00 ☾	1001hPa	94J/kg	0.76fraction	0.5°C	93%	0mm	0.74mm	1.9dBZ	2.2mm	7980m	12m/s	-	-	8.2m/s
02:00 ☾	1001hPa	79J/kg	0.65fraction	1°C	95%	0mm	0.77mm	5.4dBZ	2.9mm	7668m	12m/s	12m/s	14m/s	8.6m/s
03:00 ☾	1001hPa	72J/kg	0.76fraction	1.4°C	82%	0mm	0.83mm	6dBZ	0.69mm	10031m	12m/s	-	-	8.4m/s
04:00 ☾	1001hPa	66J/kg	0.88fraction	1.7°C	69%	0mm	0.84mm	6.6dBZ	1.5mm	10568m	12m/s	-	-	8.5m/s
05:00 ☾	1001hPa	91J/kg	1fraction	1.6°C	56%	0mm	0.65mm	7.2dBZ	2.3mm	19123m	12m/s	8.5m/s	8.3m/s	8.3m/s
06:00 ☾	1001hPa	113J/kg	0.76fraction	1.7°C	62%	0mm	0.97mm	-1.8dBZ	3.3mm	20388m	11m/s	-	-	8.2m/s
07:00	1002hPa	134J/kg	0.51fraction	1.8°C	68%	0mm	0.96mm	-11dBZ	4.3mm	9514m	11m/s	-	-	8m/s
08:00	1003hPa	200J/kg	0.27fraction	1.5°C	74%	0mm	0.35mm	-20dBZ	5.3mm	20759m	10m/s	6m/s	7.7m/s	7.2m/s
09:00	1003hPa	288J/kg	0.39fraction	1.2°C	64%	0mm	0.64mm	-20dBZ	0.44mm	22220m	9.2m/s	-	-	7.2m/s
10:00	1003hPa	401J/kg	0.52fraction	0.8°C	53%	0mm	0.06mm	-20dBZ	0.56mm	24134m	8.9m/s	-	-	7.1m/s
11:00	1003hPa	463J/kg	0.64fraction	0.3°C	43%	0mm	0.02mm	-20dBZ	0.63mm	24134m	8.8m/s	1.3m/s	7.4m/s	7.3m/s
12:00	1003hPa	516J/kg	0.57fraction	-0.3°C	53%	0mm	0.08mm	-8.4dBZ	0.63mm	24134m	8.6m/s	-	-	7.2m/s
13:00	1003hPa	450J/kg	0.5fraction	-0.5°C	63%	0mm	0.2mm	3.1dBZ	0.75mm	15476m	8.2m/s	-	-	7m/s
14:00 ☾	1002hPa	392J/kg	0.43fraction	-0.4°C	73%	0mm	0.45mm	15dBZ	0.94mm	10583m	7.7m/s	1.5m/s	7.6m/s	6.5m/s
15:00 ☾	1002hPa	394J/kg	0.62fraction	-0.2°C	76%	0mm	0.07mm	11dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	6.8m/s	-	-	5.6m/s
16:00 ☾	1002hPa	403J/kg	0.81fraction	-0.5°C	79%	0mm	0.07mm	6.7dBZ	0.19mm	23909m	6m/s	-	-	4.6m/s
17:00 ☾	1002hPa	402J/kg	1fraction	-0.8°C	82%	0mm	0.13mm	2.7dBZ	0.25mm	22667m	5.4m/s	2.4m/s	7.1m/s	4.1m/s
18:00 ☾	1002hPa	424J/kg	1fraction	-0.8°C	85%	0mm	0.13mm	-0.91dBZ	0.38mm	23235m	4.6m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
19:00 ☾	1003hPa	509J/kg	1fraction	-1°C	88%	0mm	0.16mm	-4.5dBZ	0.5mm	23556m	4.2m/s	-	-	3.4m/s
20:00 ☾	1004hPa	485J/kg	1fraction	-1.2°C	92%	0mm	0.05mm	-8.1dBZ	0.69mm	22387m	4m/s	3.8m/s	5m/s	3.3m/s
21:00 ☾	995hPa	323J/kg	1fraction	-0.39°C	74%	0mm	0.05mm	-12dBZ	0.48mm	22970m	3.2m/s	-	-	2.6m/s
22:00 ☾	987hPa	162J/kg	1fraction	0.42°C	56%	0mm	0.04mm	-16dBZ	0.27mm	23552m	2.4m/s	-	-	1.9m/s
23:00 ☾	979hPa	0J/kg	1fraction	1.2°C	39%	0mm	0.04mm	-19dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	1.6m/s	2.9m/s	5.7m/s	1.3m/s
Wed, Sep 9 Sunrise 06:17 Sunset 18:39
24:00 ☾	979hPa	0J/kg	0.75fraction	1.2°C	45%	0.003mm	0.03mm	-20dBZ	0.08mm	24135m	2.2m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
01:00 ☾	980hPa	0J/kg	0.51fraction	1.1°C	50%	0.007mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0.1mm	24135m	2.9m/s	-	-	1.8m/s
02:00 ☾	980hPa	0J/kg	0.26fraction	1.1°C	56%	0.01mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	3.5m/s	0.5m/s	3.7m/s	2.1m/s
03:00 ☾	980hPa	45J/kg	0.35fraction	0.95°C	59%	0.007mm	0.14mm	-20dBZ	0.15mm	23969m	3.2m/s	-	-	2m/s
04:00 ☾	980hPa	91J/kg	0.45fraction	0.84°C	61%	0.003mm	0.28mm	-20dBZ	0.17mm	23803m	2.9m/s	-	-	2m/s
05:00 ☾	980hPa	136J/kg	0.54fraction	0.73°C	64%	0mm	0.42mm	-20dBZ	0.19mm	23637m	2.5m/s	0.7m/s	4.9m/s	1.9m/s
06:00 ☾	980hPa	145J/kg	0.41fraction	0.81°C	71%	0.007mm	0.39mm	-20dBZ	0.5mm	18560m	2.4m/s	-	-	1.8m/s
07:00	979hPa	153J/kg	0.28fraction	0.88°C	78%	0.01mm	0.36mm	-20dBZ	0.81mm	13483m	2.3m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
08:00	979hPa	162J/kg	0.15fraction	0.96°C	86%	0.02mm	0.33mm	-20dBZ	1.1mm	8405m	2.2m/s	0.57m/s	4.9m/s	1.6m/s
09:00	979hPa	136J/kg	0.33fraction	1.3°C	87%	0.02mm	0.34mm	-11dBZ	1.1mm	13649m	2.4m/s	-	-	1.9m/s
10:00	979hPa	109J/kg	0.51fraction	1.6°C	88%	0.01mm	0.35mm	-2.8dBZ	1.1mm	18892m	2.5m/s	-	-	2.2m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Sep 6, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC

Get Notified of Opportunities

Create your own custom alerts for this location and more.

Create Free Account