Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Manoa Falls, Hawaii

Honolulu, Hawaii, United States

Manoa Falls descends a dark basalt wall within dense rainforest, where bamboo, broad leaves, and the narrow trail create intimate vertical frames.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

19%

CAPE258

Lifted Index-1.9°C

Wind Gusts13.9m/s

Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (95-hour forecast)

Storm Intensity100% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Manoa Falls.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Manoa Falls during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 62% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 62% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 62% average confidence

Only 5 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 95 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Sat, Aug 22
22:00	18%
23:00	19%
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	19%
01:00	19%
02:00	23%
03:00	20%
04:00	22%
05:00	20%
06:00	21%
07:00	23%
08:00	27%
09:00	20%
10:00	20%
11:00	20%
12:00	20%
13:00	21%
14:00	22%
15:00	20%
16:00	21%
17:00	22%
18:00	23%
19:00	25%
20:00	29%
21:00	20%
22:00	19%
23:00	21%
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	23%
01:00	23%
02:00	26%
03:00	19%
04:00	20%
05:00	22%
06:00	20%
07:00	22%
08:00	23%
09:00	20%
10:00	22%
11:00	22%
12:00	20%
13:00	19%
14:00	20%
15:00	20%
16:00	21%
17:00	20%
18:00	20%
19:00	24%
20:00	25%
21:00	22%
22:00	18%
23:00	17%
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	21%
01:00	23%
02:00	27%
03:00	23%
04:00	23%
05:00	23%
06:00	21%
07:00	18%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	16%
20:00	18%
21:00	18%
22:00	18%
23:00	19%
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	18%
01:00	19%
02:00	21%
03:00	0%
04:00	16%
05:00	17%
06:00	16%
07:00	0%
08:00	0%
09:00	12%
10:00	0%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	13%
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:13 Sunset 18:54
22:00 ☾	1008hPa	258J/kg	0.7fraction	-1.9°C	40%	0mm	0.03mm	-3.6dBZ	0mm	24135m	14m/s	-	-	11m/s
23:00 ☾	1008hPa	275J/kg	0.63fraction	-1.8°C	28%	0mm	0.04mm	-5dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	14m/s	9m/s	7.5m/s	11m/s
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:13 Sunset 18:54
24:00 ☾	1008hPa	301J/kg	0.46fraction	-2.2°C	40%	0mm	0.06mm	-9.8dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	14m/s	-	-	11m/s
01:00 ☾	1007hPa	303J/kg	0.29fraction	-2.1°C	52%	0mm	0.06mm	-15dBZ	0.19mm	24134m	13m/s	-	-	11m/s
02:00 ☾	1006hPa	303J/kg	0.12fraction	-2.1°C	64%	0mm	0.02mm	-19dBZ	0.25mm	24135m	13m/s	8.9m/s	8m/s	11m/s
03:00 ☾	1006hPa	318J/kg	0.41fraction	-1.9°C	52%	0mm	0.01mm	-19dBZ	0mm	24135m	13m/s	-	-	11m/s
04:00 ☾	1006hPa	262J/kg	0.71fraction	-1.5°C	40%	0mm	0.02mm	-19dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	10m/s
05:00 ☾	1006hPa	265J/kg	1fraction	-1.4°C	29%	0mm	0.02mm	-19dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	12m/s	7.5m/s	6.6m/s	10m/s
06:00 ☾	1007hPa	301J/kg	1fraction	-1.5°C	32%	0mm	0.02mm	-19dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	10m/s
07:00	1007hPa	395J/kg	1fraction	-1.8°C	36%	0mm	0.03mm	-19dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	10m/s
08:00	1008hPa	439J/kg	1fraction	-1.8°C	39%	0mm	0.1mm	-19dBZ	0.19mm	24134m	12m/s	6.8m/s	5.8m/s	9.8m/s
09:00	1008hPa	378J/kg	0.9fraction	-1.9°C	26%	0mm	0.07mm	-15dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	11m/s	-	-	10m/s
10:00	1008hPa	362J/kg	0.81fraction	-1.9°C	13%	0mm	0.03mm	-11dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	11m/s
11:00	1008hPa	313J/kg	0.71fraction	-1.9°C	0%	0mm	0.02mm	-7.5dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	12m/s	7m/s	5.8m/s	11m/s
12:00	1008hPa	299J/kg	0.49fraction	-1.8°C	13%	0mm	0.01mm	-12dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
13:00	1007hPa	268J/kg	0.27fraction	-1.7°C	26%	0mm	0.02mm	-16dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	11m/s	-	-	11m/s
14:00 ☾	1007hPa	279J/kg	0.05fraction	-1.8°C	39%	0mm	0.05mm	-20dBZ	0.25mm	24044m	8.8m/s	9.2m/s	7.3m/s	8.4m/s
15:00 ☾	1007hPa	287J/kg	0.37fraction	-2.1°C	39%	0mm	0.04mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	8m/s	-	-	8m/s
16:00 ☾	1007hPa	306J/kg	0.68fraction	-2.1°C	39%	0mm	0.05mm	-20dBZ	0.19mm	24134m	7.4m/s	-	-	7.6m/s
17:00 ☾	1007hPa	328J/kg	1fraction	-1.9°C	39%	0mm	0.11mm	-19dBZ	0.25mm	24128m	7.6m/s	6.3m/s	5.3m/s	7.8m/s
18:00 ☾	1008hPa	371J/kg	0.86fraction	-1.8°C	53%	0mm	0.12mm	-20dBZ	0.38mm	23867m	8.2m/s	-	-	7.9m/s
19:00 ☾	1008hPa	343J/kg	0.73fraction	-1.5°C	68%	0mm	0.04mm	-20dBZ	0.44mm	24134m	9.3m/s	-	-	8.4m/s
20:00 ☾	1008hPa	316J/kg	0.59fraction	-1.4°C	82%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0.5mm	24135m	9.6m/s	4.6m/s	4.5m/s	9m/s
21:00 ☾	1009hPa	311J/kg	0.73fraction	-1.2°C	68%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	9.6m/s	-	-	8.2m/s
22:00 ☾	1009hPa	282J/kg	0.86fraction	-1.2°C	53%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.8m/s	-	-	7.5m/s
23:00 ☾	1009hPa	277J/kg	1fraction	-1.4°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-19dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	9.7m/s	4.4m/s	1.7m/s	7.7m/s
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:13 Sunset 18:53
24:00 ☾	1009hPa	245J/kg	1fraction	-1.4°C	53%	0mm	0.02mm	-19dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	9.1m/s
01:00 ☾	1008hPa	242J/kg	1fraction	-1.4°C	67%	0mm	0.03mm	-19dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	9.2m/s
02:00 ☾	1008hPa	210J/kg	1fraction	-1.1°C	82%	0mm	0.04mm	-19dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	11m/s	5.7m/s	0.97m/s	9.4m/s
03:00 ☾	1007hPa	193J/kg	1fraction	-0.9°C	67%	0mm	0.06mm	-19dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	9.9m/s
04:00 ☾	1007hPa	155J/kg	1fraction	-0.8°C	53%	0mm	0.05mm	-19dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	10m/s
05:00 ☾	1008hPa	106J/kg	1fraction	-0.3°C	39%	0mm	0.08mm	-19dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	12m/s	7.8m/s	3.1m/s	11m/s
06:00 ☾	1008hPa	81J/kg	0.77fraction	-0.2°C	39%	0mm	0.07mm	-13dBZ	0.25mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
07:00	1008hPa	33J/kg	0.54fraction	0.1°C	39%	0mm	0.04mm	-7.6dBZ	0.31mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
08:00	1009hPa	16J/kg	0.31fraction	0.2°C	39%	0mm	0.03mm	-1.8dBZ	0.38mm	24135m	12m/s	7.9m/s	3.7m/s	11m/s
09:00	1009hPa	8J/kg	0.32fraction	0.5°C	26%	0mm	0.02mm	-7.8dBZ	0mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
10:00	1009hPa	4J/kg	0.33fraction	0.6°C	13%	0mm	0.01mm	-14dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
11:00	1009hPa	3J/kg	0.33fraction	0.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	12m/s	7.5m/s	4m/s	11m/s
12:00	1009hPa	2J/kg	0.25fraction	0.5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
13:00	1008hPa	0J/kg	0.17fraction	0.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
14:00 ☾	1008hPa	0J/kg	0.09fraction	0.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	12m/s	6.6m/s	5.2m/s	12m/s
15:00 ☾	1007hPa	0J/kg	0.06fraction	0.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
16:00 ☾	1007hPa	0J/kg	0.03fraction	1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
17:00 ☾	1007hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	11m/s	4.4m/s	3.1m/s	11m/s
18:00 ☾	1008hPa	1J/kg	0.27fraction	1.1°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	11m/s
19:00 ☾	1008hPa	0J/kg	0.54fraction	1°C	26%	0mm	0.01mm	-10dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	10m/s
20:00 ☾	1009hPa	2J/kg	0.82fraction	1.1°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-5.4dBZ	0mm	24134m	12m/s	3.9m/s	4.8m/s	10m/s
21:00 ☾	1009hPa	9J/kg	0.88fraction	1.6°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-3.2dBZ	0mm	24135m	11m/s	-	-	10m/s
22:00 ☾	1010hPa	14J/kg	0.94fraction	2°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-0.88dBZ	0mm	24135m	11m/s	-	-	10m/s
23:00 ☾	1010hPa	12J/kg	1fraction	2.7°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	1.4dBZ	0mm	24135m	11m/s	4.7m/s	7m/s	10m/s
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:13 Sunset 18:52
24:00 ☾	1009hPa	10J/kg	0.76fraction	2.7°C	53%	0mm	0.01mm	-1.5dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	10m/s
01:00 ☾	1009hPa	17J/kg	0.52fraction	2.3°C	68%	0mm	0.02mm	-4.3dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
02:00 ☾	1008hPa	9J/kg	0.28fraction	2.9°C	82%	0mm	0.01mm	-7.2dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	12m/s	4.7m/s	7.8m/s	11m/s
03:00 ☾	1008hPa	8J/kg	0.36fraction	3.3°C	55%	0mm	0.01mm	-5.5dBZ	0mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	10m/s
04:00 ☾	1008hPa	10J/kg	0.44fraction	3.4°C	27%	0mm	0.01mm	-3.8dBZ	0mm	24134m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
05:00 ☾	1008hPa	5J/kg	0.53fraction	4.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-2.1dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	12m/s	5.3m/s	9.1m/s	11m/s
06:00 ☾	1008hPa	2J/kg	0.43fraction	4.3°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-7.9dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	10m/s
07:00	1009hPa	2J/kg	0.34fraction	4.4°C	26%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	12m/s	-	-	11m/s
08:00	1009hPa	5J/kg	0.25fraction	4°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	12m/s	6.1m/s	9.8m/s	11m/s
09:00	1000hPa	4.7J/kg	0.17fraction	3.8°C	26%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.04mm	24135m	11m/s	-	-	9m/s
10:00	991hPa	4.3J/kg	0.08fraction	3.6°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.02mm	24135m	9.5m/s	-	-	7.4m/s
11:00	983hPa	4J/kg	0fraction	3.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	8.2m/s	5.9m/s	9.8m/s	5.8m/s
12:00	983hPa	6.3J/kg	0fraction	3.1°C	13%	0mm	0.02mm	-20dBZ	0.02mm	24135m	8.4m/s	-	-	5.4m/s
13:00	983hPa	8.7J/kg	0fraction	2.9°C	26%	0mm	0.04mm	-20dBZ	0.04mm	24135m	8.6m/s	-	-	5m/s
14:00 ☾	984hPa	11J/kg	0fraction	2.7°C	39%	0mm	0.06mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	8.8m/s	4.9m/s	10m/s	4.6m/s
15:00 ☾	984hPa	16J/kg	0fraction	2.5°C	39%	0mm	0.08mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	24103m	8.5m/s	-	-	4.4m/s
16:00 ☾	984hPa	20J/kg	0fraction	2.3°C	39%	0mm	0.09mm	-20dBZ	0.19mm	24071m	8.1m/s	-	-	4.1m/s
17:00 ☾	984hPa	25J/kg	0fraction	2.1°C	39%	0mm	0.11mm	-20dBZ	0.25mm	24038m	7.7m/s	3.2m/s	7.7m/s	3.9m/s
18:00 ☾	984hPa	25J/kg	0fraction	2.1°C	45%	0.01mm	0.09mm	-15dBZ	0.31mm	24043m	7.5m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
19:00 ☾	983hPa	24J/kg	0fraction	2°C	50%	0.03mm	0.06mm	-9.5dBZ	0.38mm	24047m	7.3m/s	-	-	3.2m/s
20:00 ☾	983hPa	24J/kg	0fraction	1.9°C	56%	0.04mm	0.04mm	-4.3dBZ	0.44mm	24051m	7.1m/s	5m/s	9.7m/s	2.8m/s
21:00 ☾	983hPa	18J/kg	0fraction	2.2°C	50%	0.03mm	0.03mm	-9.4dBZ	0.33mm	24079m	6.8m/s	-	-	2.7m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 24, 2026, 7:40 AM UTC

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