Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Haleakala, Hawaii

Makawao, Hawaii, United States

Haleakalā's summit overlooks a vast erosional crater filled with cinder cones, whose repeated forms lead toward the island and Pacific horizon.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

33%

CAPE27

Lifted Index-0.9°C

Wind Gusts8.5m/s

Precipitation0.1mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

Next opportunity

Weak Storm

Haleakala

Tomorrow · 01:00–02:00 · 1h window

Medium confidence

49%

⛈️Storm Intensity40.7%

CAPE: 41

Lifted Index: -1.0°C

Wind Gusts: 7.6m/s

Precipitation: 1.4mm

Weak Storm

Haleakala

Tomorrow · 14:00–16:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:41.1-45.1%

Low

Weak Storm

Haleakala

Tomorrow · 17:00–18:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:41%

Medium

Weak Storm at Sunset

Haleakala

Tomorrow · 18:00–20:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:44.6-48.5%

Low

Weak Storm

Haleakala

Tomorrow · 20:00–21:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:48.2%

Medium

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Haleakala.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Haleakala during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 59% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 59% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 59% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

20:00 local time, shared by 3 of 15 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

August, with 13 of 15 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

11matching hours in the next 95 hoursJump to next match

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Sat, Aug 22
22:00	22%
23:00	24%
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	28%
01:00	0%
02:00	0%
03:00	22%
04:00	22%
05:00	27%
06:00	26%
07:00	31%
08:00	0%
09:00	30%
10:00	25%
11:00	28%
12:00	31%
13:00	44%
14:00	57%
15:00	37%
16:00	33%
17:00	22%
18:00	20%
19:00	40%
20:00	42%
21:00	28%
22:00	29%
23:00	30%
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	38%
01:00	41%
02:00	34%
03:00	32%
04:00	33%
05:00	39%
06:00	31%
07:00	36%
08:00	37%
09:00	27%
10:00	32%
11:00	28%
12:00	28%
13:00	28%
14:00	45%
15:00	41%
16:00	36%
17:00	41%
18:00	49%
19:00	45%
20:00	48%
21:00	31%
22:00	31%
23:00	18%
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	0%
01:00	25%
02:00	25%
03:00	24%
04:00	26%
05:00	26%
06:00	31%
07:00	20%
08:00	18%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	28%
12:00	24%
13:00	25%
14:00	33%
15:00	30%
16:00	31%
17:00	32%
18:00	24%
19:00	31%
20:00	22%
21:00	23%
22:00	28%
23:00	34%
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	25%
01:00	24%
02:00	0%
03:00	22%
04:00	20%
05:00	16%
06:00	16%
07:00	12%
08:00	12%
09:00	12%
10:00	12%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%
16:00	19%
17:00	17%
18:00	19%
19:00	20%
20:00	20%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 18:47
22:00 ☾	904hPa	27J/kg	0fraction	-0.9°C	39%	0mm	0.02mm	-14dBZ	0.13mm	529m	8.5m/s	-	-	5.7m/s
23:00 ☾	904hPa	37J/kg	0fraction	-1°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-13dBZ	0.13mm	466m	8.1m/s	7.6m/s	10m/s	5.4m/s
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 18:47
24:00 ☾	903hPa	60J/kg	0.06fraction	-1.3°C	45%	0mm	0.9mm	-11dBZ	0.5mm	199m	7.6m/s	-	-	5.2m/s
01:00 ☾	903hPa	56J/kg	0.12fraction	-1.1°C	50%	0mm	0.38mm	-9.6dBZ	0.88mm	458m	7.3m/s	-	-	5.3m/s
02:00 ☾	902hPa	29J/kg	0.18fraction	-0.8°C	56%	0mm	0.12mm	-8.1dBZ	1.2mm	2004m	7.1m/s	10m/s	11m/s	5.2m/s
03:00 ☾	902hPa	28J/kg	0.3fraction	-0.9°C	41%	0mm	0.09mm	-9.9dBZ	0.25mm	1829m	7.4m/s	-	-	5.4m/s
04:00 ☾	902hPa	33J/kg	0.43fraction	-1.1°C	25%	0mm	0.08mm	-12dBZ	0.44mm	1153m	7.5m/s	-	-	5.5m/s
05:00 ☾	902hPa	25J/kg	0.55fraction	-0.7°C	10%	0mm	0.06mm	-14dBZ	0.56mm	4675m	7.2m/s	11m/s	10m/s	5.4m/s
06:00 ☾	903hPa	13J/kg	0.54fraction	-0.4°C	23%	0mm	0.35mm	-14dBZ	0.88mm	1269m	7m/s	-	-	5.2m/s
07:00	903hPa	13J/kg	0.53fraction	-0.2°C	37%	0mm	0.19mm	-15dBZ	1.1mm	5194m	6.9m/s	-	-	5.2m/s
08:00	904hPa	22J/kg	0.53fraction	-0.2°C	50%	0mm	0.13mm	-15dBZ	1.2mm	1257m	7m/s	8.6m/s	8.6m/s	5.4m/s
09:00	904hPa	22J/kg	0.68fraction	-0.1°C	33%	0mm	0.07mm	-16dBZ	0.06mm	4957m	6.5m/s	-	-	5m/s
10:00	904hPa	40J/kg	0.84fraction	-0.2°C	17%	0mm	0.15mm	-16dBZ	0.19mm	5444m	6.2m/s	-	-	4.9m/s
11:00	904hPa	70J/kg	1fraction	-0.2°C	0%	0.01mm	0.47mm	-17dBZ	0.38mm	4249m	5.8m/s	6.4m/s	7.4m/s	4.7m/s
12:00	903hPa	84J/kg	1fraction	-0.5°C	13%	0.18mm	0.86mm	-16dBZ	0.69mm	4131m	5.6m/s	-	-	4.6m/s
13:00	903hPa	76J/kg	1fraction	-0.5°C	26%	0.47mm	0.85mm	-16dBZ	1.7mm	4026m	5.2m/s	-	-	4.6m/s
14:00 ☾	903hPa	53J/kg	1fraction	-0.4°C	39%	0.77mm	0.93mm	-16dBZ	3mm	4892m	5.1m/s	9.9m/s	10m/s	4.3m/s
15:00 ☾	903hPa	26J/kg	0.81fraction	-0.3°C	26%	0.64mm	0.91mm	-16dBZ	1.4mm	6632m	4.9m/s	-	-	4m/s
16:00 ☾	903hPa	35J/kg	0.63fraction	-0.7°C	13%	0.11mm	0.65mm	-17dBZ	2.2mm	5096m	4.5m/s	-	-	3.7m/s
17:00 ☾	903hPa	66J/kg	0.44fraction	-1°C	0%	0.05mm	0.44mm	-17dBZ	2.7mm	1039m	5.1m/s	6.6m/s	9.8m/s	3.8m/s
18:00 ☾	903hPa	66J/kg	0.37fraction	-1.1°C	0%	0mm	0.31mm	-18dBZ	2.9mm	1015m	4.8m/s	-	-	3.3m/s
19:00 ☾	904hPa	62J/kg	0.3fraction	-0.9°C	0%	0.01mm	0.32mm	-19dBZ	3.2mm	1232m	5m/s	-	-	3.2m/s
20:00 ☾	904hPa	38J/kg	0.23fraction	-0.5°C	0%	0mm	0.3mm	-20dBZ	3.4mm	1474m	5.3m/s	5m/s	8.4m/s	3.4m/s
21:00 ☾	905hPa	28J/kg	0.17fraction	-0.3°C	0%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	9673m	5.1m/s	-	-	3.5m/s
22:00 ☾	905hPa	19J/kg	0.11fraction	-0.4°C	0%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	11047m	5.2m/s	-	-	3.8m/s
23:00 ☾	905hPa	13J/kg	0.06fraction	-0.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	8381m	5m/s	5.4m/s	6.2m/s	3.6m/s
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 18:46
24:00 ☾	904hPa	16J/kg	0.37fraction	-0.4°C	13%	0mm	0.02mm	-12dBZ	0.13mm	10878m	4.6m/s	-	-	3.5m/s
01:00 ☾	904hPa	11J/kg	0.69fraction	-0.3°C	26%	0mm	0.02mm	-4.4dBZ	0.13mm	12042m	4.6m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
02:00 ☾	903hPa	10J/kg	1fraction	-0.2°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	3.4dBZ	0.19mm	8803m	4.9m/s	7m/s	4.9m/s	3.7m/s
03:00 ☾	903hPa	2J/kg	0.92fraction	0.1°C	26%	0mm	0.02mm	4.6dBZ	0.06mm	3218m	5.4m/s	-	-	3.8m/s
04:00 ☾	903hPa	6J/kg	0.84fraction	0.2°C	13%	0mm	0.07mm	5.8dBZ	0.13mm	1919m	5.6m/s	-	-	3.9m/s
05:00 ☾	903hPa	3J/kg	0.76fraction	0.4°C	0%	0.02mm	0.04mm	7dBZ	0.19mm	9075m	5.7m/s	7.8m/s	4.6m/s	4.4m/s
06:00 ☾	904hPa	4J/kg	0.57fraction	0.7°C	0%	0mm	0.04mm	1.7dBZ	0.25mm	3263m	5.6m/s	-	-	4.3m/s
07:00	904hPa	7J/kg	0.39fraction	0.8°C	0%	0mm	0.06mm	-3.5dBZ	0.31mm	8274m	5.6m/s	-	-	4.3m/s
08:00	904hPa	7J/kg	0.21fraction	0.8°C	0%	0mm	0.05mm	-8.8dBZ	0.38mm	4104m	5.7m/s	9.3m/s	5.5m/s	4.2m/s
09:00	904hPa	8J/kg	0.29fraction	0.8°C	0%	0mm	0.06mm	-13dBZ	0.06mm	522m	5.4m/s	-	-	4.2m/s
10:00	904hPa	7J/kg	0.38fraction	0.7°C	0%	0mm	0.03mm	-16dBZ	0.13mm	443m	4.8m/s	-	-	4m/s
11:00	904hPa	4J/kg	0.47fraction	0.8°C	0%	0mm	0.03mm	-20dBZ	0.19mm	1741m	4.3m/s	10m/s	7.1m/s	3.5m/s
12:00	904hPa	5J/kg	0.55fraction	0.5°C	0%	0mm	0.05mm	-19dBZ	0.19mm	8421m	3.8m/s	-	-	3.8m/s
13:00	904hPa	7J/kg	0.64fraction	0.2°C	0%	0mm	0.04mm	-18dBZ	0.25mm	8011m	4.1m/s	-	-	4.1m/s
14:00 ☾	903hPa	2J/kg	0.72fraction	0.6°C	0%	0mm	0.03mm	-16dBZ	0.31mm	757m	3.9m/s	9.7m/s	7m/s	3.3m/s
15:00 ☾	903hPa	3J/kg	0.64fraction	0.5°C	0%	0mm	0.05mm	-16dBZ	0.06mm	732m	3.1m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
16:00 ☾	903hPa	4J/kg	0.56fraction	0.4°C	0%	0.02mm	0.04mm	-16dBZ	0.13mm	499m	3.5m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
17:00 ☾	903hPa	2J/kg	0.48fraction	0.6°C	0%	0mm	0.02mm	-15dBZ	0.19mm	400m	4m/s	7.4m/s	5.4m/s	2.8m/s
18:00 ☾	903hPa	3J/kg	0.49fraction	0.8°C	13%	0mm	0.02mm	-8.1dBZ	0.19mm	354m	4.4m/s	-	-	3.4m/s
19:00 ☾	903hPa	6J/kg	0.49fraction	1.1°C	26%	0mm	0.05mm	-1.1dBZ	0.19mm	316m	5.1m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
20:00 ☾	904hPa	1J/kg	0.49fraction	1.4°C	39%	0.05mm	0.01mm	5.9dBZ	0.25mm	8298m	5.4m/s	6.4m/s	5.1m/s	3.8m/s
21:00 ☾	904hPa	4J/kg	0.66fraction	2°C	26%	0mm	0.02mm	7.4dBZ	0.06mm	1739m	4.9m/s	-	-	3.4m/s
22:00 ☾	905hPa	3J/kg	0.83fraction	2.1°C	13%	0.03mm	0.03mm	8.9dBZ	0.06mm	4296m	5.1m/s	-	-	3.5m/s
23:00 ☾	905hPa	4J/kg	1fraction	2.3°C	0%	0.02mm	0.04mm	10dBZ	0.19mm	6153m	5.1m/s	5.7m/s	6.1m/s	3.8m/s
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:07 Sunset 18:45
24:00 ☾	904hPa	5J/kg	0.79fraction	2.7°C	13%	0mm	0.05mm	7.8dBZ	0.25mm	8457m	5m/s	-	-	3.5m/s
01:00 ☾	904hPa	3J/kg	0.57fraction	3.5°C	26%	0mm	0.04mm	5.2dBZ	0.31mm	8604m	4.3m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
02:00 ☾	904hPa	2J/kg	0.36fraction	4.1°C	39%	0mm	0.03mm	2.6dBZ	0.31mm	24134m	4.3m/s	5.1m/s	5.7m/s	2.8m/s
03:00 ☾	903hPa	1J/kg	0.53fraction	4.4°C	39%	0mm	0.02mm	1.4dBZ	0mm	9038m	4.3m/s	-	-	3.2m/s
04:00 ☾	903hPa	1J/kg	0.69fraction	4.7°C	39%	0mm	0.03mm	0.28dBZ	0.06mm	8594m	4.4m/s	-	-	3.3m/s
05:00 ☾	903hPa	1J/kg	0.86fraction	4.8°C	39%	0mm	0.02mm	-0.88dBZ	0.06mm	9779m	4.5m/s	5.8m/s	6.5m/s	3.2m/s
06:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0.58fraction	5.2°C	33%	0mm	0.01mm	-7.1dBZ	0.06mm	9519m	4.6m/s	-	-	3.1m/s
07:00	904hPa	0J/kg	0.3fraction	5.4°C	28%	0mm	0mm	-13dBZ	0.06mm	1031m	4.9m/s	-	-	3.9m/s
08:00	904hPa	0J/kg	0.03fraction	5.3°C	22%	0mm	0mm	-19dBZ	0.13mm	3402m	4.8m/s	5m/s	6m/s	4.2m/s
09:00	937hPa	5.3J/kg	0.02fraction	4.5°C	15%	0mm	0.003mm	-20dBZ	0.1mm	10313m	5.9m/s	-	-	5.2m/s
10:00	970hPa	11J/kg	0.01fraction	3.6°C	7%	0mm	0.007mm	-20dBZ	0.08mm	17224m	7.1m/s	-	-	6.2m/s
11:00	1003hPa	16J/kg	0fraction	2.8°C	0%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	8.2m/s	5.3m/s	7.1m/s	7.3m/s
12:00	1004hPa	19J/kg	0fraction	2.6°C	13%	0mm	0.03mm	-12dBZ	0.1mm	24135m	8.3m/s	-	-	7.2m/s
13:00	1004hPa	22J/kg	0fraction	2.5°C	26%	0mm	0.04mm	-3.6dBZ	0.15mm	24135m	8.4m/s	-	-	7.2m/s
14:00 ☾	1005hPa	25J/kg	0fraction	2.4°C	39%	0mm	0.06mm	4.6dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	8.5m/s	4.6m/s	8m/s	7.2m/s
15:00 ☾	1005hPa	22J/kg	0.33fraction	2.7°C	39%	0mm	0.05mm	6.9dBZ	0.15mm	24135m	8.4m/s	-	-	7m/s
16:00 ☾	1005hPa	19J/kg	0.67fraction	3°C	39%	0mm	0.04mm	9.2dBZ	0.1mm	24135m	8.3m/s	-	-	6.9m/s
17:00 ☾	1005hPa	16J/kg	1fraction	3.2°C	39%	0mm	0.03mm	11dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	8.1m/s	4.8m/s	8.1m/s	6.7m/s
18:00 ☾	1005hPa	28J/kg	0.8fraction	2.9°C	45%	0mm	0.08mm	9.4dBZ	0.19mm	21137m	8.3m/s	-	-	6.7m/s
19:00 ☾	1004hPa	39J/kg	0.61fraction	2.5°C	50%	0mm	0.14mm	7.3dBZ	0.31mm	18138m	8.5m/s	-	-	6.8m/s
20:00 ☾	1004hPa	51J/kg	0.41fraction	2.2°C	56%	0mm	0.19mm	5.3dBZ	0.44mm	15140m	8.6m/s	5.3m/s	8.2m/s	6.8m/s
21:00 ☾	1004hPa	36J/kg	0.61fraction	2.5°C	50%	0.003mm	0.13mm	5.2dBZ	0.35mm	18138m	8.5m/s	-	-	6.9m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 24, 2026, 7:40 AM UTC

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