Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Haleakala, Hawaii

Makawao, Hawaii, United States

Haleakalā's summit overlooks a vast erosional crater filled with cinder cones, whose repeated forms lead toward the island and Pacific horizon.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

30%

CAPE4

Lifted Index0.5°C

Wind Gusts3.9m/s

Precipitation0.1mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Pacific/Honolulu

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (95-hour forecast)

Storm Intensity100% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Haleakala.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Hawaii →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Haleakala during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 60% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 60% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 60% average confidence

Most represented month

August, with 10 of 12 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 95 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Mon, Aug 17
03:00	20%
04:00	0%
05:00	0%
06:00	0%
07:00	27%
08:00	37%
09:00	26%
10:00	31%
11:00	38%
12:00	30%
13:00	29%
14:00	26%
15:00	21%
16:00	25%
17:00	23%
18:00	22%
19:00	24%
20:00	18%
21:00	17%
22:00	17%
23:00	24%
Tue, Aug 18
24:00	18%
01:00	25%
02:00	35%
03:00	29%
04:00	30%
05:00	26%
06:00	19%
07:00	19%
08:00	28%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	13%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	15%
15:00	15%
16:00	18%
17:00	28%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	17%
21:00	0%
22:00	0%
23:00	14%
Wed, Aug 19
24:00	0%
01:00	0%
02:00	22%
03:00	0%
04:00	0%
05:00	14%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	13%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	13%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	25%
15:00	18%
16:00	0%
17:00	13%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	15%
21:00	0%
22:00	20%
23:00	26%
Thu, Aug 20
24:00	22%
01:00	22%
02:00	26%
03:00	18%
04:00	18%
05:00	20%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	12%
09:00	0%
10:00	15%
11:00	13%
12:00	15%
13:00	16%
14:00	17%
15:00	16%
16:00	14%
17:00	11%
18:00	11%
19:00	13%
20:00	14%
21:00	12%
22:00	11%
23:00	12%
Fri, Aug 21
24:00	11%
01:00	12%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Pacific/Honolulu	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Tue, Aug 18 Sunrise 06:05 Sunset 18:52
04:00 ☾	902hPa	4J/kg	0.65fraction	0.5°C	0%	0.02mm	0.01mm	2.9dBZ	0.13mm	431m	3.9m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
05:00 ☾	902hPa	0J/kg	0.47fraction	0.8°C	0%	0.02mm	0.02mm	-0.25dBZ	0.13mm	8197m	3.5m/s	8.1m/s	11m/s	2.4m/s
06:00 ☾	902hPa	3J/kg	0.4fraction	1.1°C	0%	0mm	0.01mm	-5.9dBZ	0.19mm	281m	3.4m/s	-	-	2.4m/s
07:00	903hPa	1J/kg	0.32fraction	1.2°C	0%	0mm	0.01mm	-12dBZ	0.19mm	225m	3.1m/s	-	-	2m/s
08:00	903hPa	2J/kg	0.25fraction	1.5°C	0%	0mm	0.03mm	-17dBZ	0.25mm	1308m	2.3m/s	8.2m/s	12m/s	1.6m/s
09:00	903hPa	2J/kg	0.17fraction	1.3°C	0%	0mm	0.02mm	-16dBZ	0mm	8427m	2m/s	-	-	1.3m/s
10:00	903hPa	7J/kg	0.08fraction	1°C	0%	0mm	0.04mm	-15dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	1.9m/s	-	-	0.83m/s
11:00	903hPa	3J/kg	0fraction	1°C	0%	0mm	0.02mm	-14dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	1.9m/s	8.2m/s	12m/s	1m/s
12:00	903hPa	2J/kg	0fraction	1°C	0%	0mm	0.01mm	-15dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	2.1m/s	-	-	0.95m/s
13:00	902hPa	3J/kg	0fraction	0.7°C	0%	0.01mm	0.01mm	-16dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	2.1m/s	-	-	0.65m/s
14:00 ☾	902hPa	5J/kg	0fraction	0.5°C	0%	0.02mm	0.03mm	-17dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	1.9m/s	7.5m/s	12m/s	1.1m/s
15:00 ☾	902hPa	7J/kg	0fraction	0.4°C	0%	0.02mm	0.05mm	-18dBZ	0.06mm	1058m	1.7m/s	-	-	1.3m/s
16:00 ☾	902hPa	4J/kg	0fraction	0.9°C	0%	0mm	0.06mm	-18dBZ	0.13mm	1000m	1.6m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
17:00 ☾	902hPa	1J/kg	0fraction	1.2°C	0%	0mm	0.01mm	-18dBZ	0.13mm	1910m	1.8m/s	6.8m/s	11m/s	1.5m/s
18:00 ☾	902hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.8°C	13%	0mm	0.01mm	-17dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	2.3m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
19:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.2°C	26%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0.13mm	10394m	2.6m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
20:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.4°C	39%	0.01mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0.13mm	8674m	2.6m/s	7.8m/s	12m/s	1.3m/s
21:00 ☾	904hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.7°C	26%	0mm	0mm	-13dBZ	0mm	10311m	2.7m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
22:00 ☾	904hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.1°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-10dBZ	0mm	12396m	2.6m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
23:00 ☾	904hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-6.9dBZ	0mm	10072m	2.6m/s	9.4m/s	13m/s	1.8m/s
Wed, Aug 19 Sunrise 06:05 Sunset 18:51
24:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0.17fraction	3.1°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-3.6dBZ	0mm	16203m	2.5m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
01:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0.33fraction	3.2°C	26%	0mm	0mm	-0.34dBZ	0mm	9313m	2.8m/s	-	-	2.1m/s
02:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0.5fraction	3°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	2.9dBZ	0mm	14737m	2.4m/s	9.5m/s	14m/s	1.8m/s
03:00 ☾	902hPa	0J/kg	0.33fraction	3°C	26%	0mm	0.01mm	1.1dBZ	0mm	15273m	2.5m/s	-	-	1.8m/s
04:00 ☾	902hPa	0J/kg	0.17fraction	3.1°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-0.77dBZ	0mm	8985m	2.1m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
05:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-2.6dBZ	0mm	14810m	2m/s	9.1m/s	14m/s	1.5m/s
06:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0.11fraction	3.1°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-4.6dBZ	0.06mm	8864m	2.5m/s	-	-	1.8m/s
07:00	904hPa	0J/kg	0.22fraction	3.1°C	26%	0mm	0mm	-6.6dBZ	0.06mm	8721m	2m/s	-	-	1.2m/s
08:00	904hPa	0J/kg	0.33fraction	2.6°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-8.6dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	2.1m/s	7.5m/s	13m/s	1.1m/s
09:00	905hPa	1J/kg	0.22fraction	2.1°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-11dBZ	0mm	24134m	1.6m/s	-	-	0.42m/s
10:00	905hPa	4J/kg	0.11fraction	1.7°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-12dBZ	0mm	24134m	1.6m/s	-	-	0.45m/s
11:00	904hPa	11J/kg	0fraction	1°C	39%	0mm	0.03mm	-14dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	1.6m/s	7.4m/s	13m/s	0.52m/s
12:00	904hPa	22J/kg	0.14fraction	0.5°C	45%	0mm	0.04mm	-15dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	1.6m/s	-	-	0.7m/s
13:00	904hPa	35J/kg	0.28fraction	0.2°C	50%	0.01mm	0.05mm	-16dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	1.6m/s	-	-	0.82m/s
14:00 ☾	903hPa	67J/kg	0.41fraction	-0.1°C	56%	0mm	0.05mm	-17dBZ	0.19mm	17286m	1.7m/s	7.3m/s	13m/s	0.97m/s
15:00 ☾	903hPa	83J/kg	0.28fraction	-0.2°C	50%	0mm	0.04mm	-18dBZ	0.06mm	16526m	1.9m/s	-	-	0.98m/s
16:00 ☾	903hPa	56J/kg	0.14fraction	0°C	45%	0mm	0.04mm	-18dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	2m/s	-	-	1.1m/s
17:00 ☾	903hPa	41J/kg	0fraction	0.2°C	39%	0mm	0.05mm	-19dBZ	0.06mm	23826m	2m/s	7.9m/s	12m/s	1.1m/s
18:00 ☾	903hPa	25J/kg	0fraction	0.4°C	39%	0mm	0.05mm	-18dBZ	0.13mm	9011m	2m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
19:00 ☾	904hPa	12J/kg	0fraction	0.5°C	39%	0mm	0.04mm	-17dBZ	0.19mm	9372m	2.1m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
20:00 ☾	904hPa	12J/kg	0fraction	0.6°C	39%	0mm	0.04mm	-16dBZ	0.19mm	18381m	2.3m/s	8.5m/s	13m/s	1.6m/s
21:00 ☾	904hPa	7J/kg	0.29fraction	0.8°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-17dBZ	0mm	8673m	2m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
22:00 ☾	905hPa	6J/kg	0.57fraction	0.7°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-17dBZ	0mm	8861m	1.8m/s	-	-	1.2m/s
23:00 ☾	905hPa	7J/kg	0.86fraction	0.7°C	39%	0mm	0.01mm	-17dBZ	0.06mm	8386m	2.1m/s	9m/s	14m/s	1.4m/s
Thu, Aug 20 Sunrise 06:06 Sunset 18:50
24:00 ☾	904hPa	4J/kg	0.88fraction	0.9°C	33%	0mm	0.01mm	-8.9dBZ	0.06mm	8336m	1.9m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
01:00 ☾	904hPa	0J/kg	0.89fraction	0.9°C	28%	0mm	0.01mm	-1.1dBZ	0.06mm	8436m	1.6m/s	-	-	1.1m/s
02:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0.91fraction	1.1°C	22%	0mm	0mm	6.6dBZ	0.06mm	9293m	1.6m/s	8.8m/s	15m/s	1.1m/s
03:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0.77fraction	1.2°C	21%	0mm	0mm	0.27dBZ	0mm	16795m	1.5m/s	-	-	1.1m/s
04:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0.64fraction	1.4°C	20%	0mm	0mm	-6.1dBZ	0mm	24134m	1.5m/s	-	-	1.1m/s
05:00 ☾	903hPa	0J/kg	0.5fraction	1.5°C	19%	0mm	0mm	-12dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.3m/s	7.6m/s	14m/s	0.87m/s
06:00 ☾	904hPa	0J/kg	0.39fraction	1.7°C	31%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	8930m	1.3m/s	-	-	0.82m/s
07:00	904hPa	0J/kg	0.29fraction	1.7°C	44%	0mm	0.01mm	-16dBZ	0.06mm	8413m	1.2m/s	-	-	0.61m/s
08:00	905hPa	0J/kg	0.19fraction	1.4°C	56%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0.06mm	15495m	1.1m/s	5.2m/s	11m/s	0.33m/s
09:00	937hPa	78J/kg	0.12fraction	0.55°C	57%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0.06mm	18375m	1.5m/s	-	-	1m/s
10:00	970hPa	156J/kg	0.06fraction	-0.31°C	58%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0.06mm	21255m	1.8m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
11:00	1003hPa	234J/kg	0fraction	-1.2°C	59%	0mm	0mm	-13dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	2.2m/s	2m/s	8.1m/s	2.4m/s
12:00	1003hPa	270J/kg	0.25fraction	-1.4°C	63%	0mm	0mm	-13dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	2m/s	-	-	2m/s
13:00	1004hPa	305J/kg	0.51fraction	-1.5°C	67%	0mm	0mm	-13dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	1.8m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
14:00 ☾	1004hPa	341J/kg	0.76fraction	-1.7°C	72%	0mm	0mm	-13dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	1.6m/s	1.7m/s	5.7m/s	1.3m/s
15:00 ☾	1004hPa	332J/kg	0.57fraction	-1.8°C	66%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0.04mm	24135m	1.4m/s	-	-	1m/s
16:00 ☾	1004hPa	324J/kg	0.38fraction	-1.9°C	61%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0.02mm	24135m	1.1m/s	-	-	0.77m/s
17:00 ☾	1005hPa	315J/kg	0.19fraction	-1.9°C	56%	0mm	0mm	-18dBZ	0mm	24135m	0.83m/s	2m/s	5.1m/s	0.52m/s
18:00 ☾	1004hPa	292J/kg	0.19fraction	-1.7°C	59%	0.003mm	0mm	-18dBZ	0mm	21911m	1.2m/s	-	-	0.76m/s
19:00 ☾	1004hPa	268J/kg	0.19fraction	-1.5°C	61%	0.007mm	0mm	-19dBZ	0mm	19686m	1.5m/s	-	-	0.99m/s
20:00 ☾	1003hPa	245J/kg	0.19fraction	-1.3°C	64%	0.01mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	17462m	1.8m/s	2m/s	4.2m/s	1.2m/s
21:00 ☾	1003hPa	215J/kg	0.13fraction	-1.2°C	50%	0.007mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	16270m	2.2m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
22:00 ☾	1003hPa	186J/kg	0.06fraction	-1.2°C	36%	0.003mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	15077m	2.5m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
23:00 ☾	1003hPa	156J/kg	0fraction	-1.1°C	22%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	13885m	2.8m/s	1.5m/s	5.3m/s	1.6m/s
Fri, Aug 21 Sunrise 06:06 Sunset 18:49
24:00 ☾	1003hPa	158J/kg	0fraction	-1.2°C	31%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	17302m	3m/s	-	-	1.9m/s
01:00 ☾	1004hPa	161J/kg	0fraction	-1.4°C	40%	0mm	0mm	-7.9dBZ	0mm	20718m	3.1m/s	-	-	2.2m/s
02:00 ☾	1004hPa	163J/kg	0fraction	-1.5°C	49%	0mm	0mm	-1.8dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.2m/s	2.6m/s	7.2m/s	2.5m/s
03:00 ☾	1004hPa	210J/kg	0fraction	-1.7°C	46%	0.003mm	0mm	-7.9dBZ	0mm	24135m	3.4m/s	-	-	3m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 18, 2026, 1:20 PM UTC

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