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Rule Morning Frost

Stow-on-the-Wold - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Stow on the Wold, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature8.2°C
Dew Point5.5°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed5.6m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, May 17
05:001%2.8m/s
06:001.2%2.6m/s
07:001.2%2.5m/s
08:001.4%3.4m/s
09:001.5%4.3m/s
10:002.8%4.7m/s
11:002.6%4.8m/s
12:003%4.8m/s
13:002.7%4.6m/s
14:000%5.6m/s
15:000%6.2m/s
16:000%5.8m/s
17:000%3.6m/s
18:000%4.5m/s
19:000%4.8m/s
20:000%5m/s
21:000%4.4m/s
22:000%3.6m/s
23:000%3.1m/s
Mon, May 18
24:000%3.1m/s
01:000%2.9m/s
02:000%3.2m/s
03:001%3.3m/s
04:001%3.4m/s
05:001%3.8m/s
06:001.3%2.5m/s
07:001.2%2.7m/s
08:001.7%3.3m/s
09:002.4%2.9m/s
10:002.2%3.5m/s
11:001.7%4m/s
12:003%3.9m/s
13:000%3.8m/s
14:000%4m/s
15:000%3.7m/s
16:000%4.1m/s
17:000%4.1m/s
18:000%4m/s
19:000%4m/s
20:000%3.5m/s
21:000%3.5m/s
22:000%4.2m/s
23:000%4.5m/s
Tue, May 19
24:000%3.9m/s
01:000%3.9m/s
02:000%3.4m/s
03:000%5.5m/s
04:000%5.6m/s
05:000%6.1m/s
06:000%6.9m/s
07:000%6.6m/s
08:000%4.9m/s
09:000%5.4m/s
10:000%7.2m/s
11:000%8.2m/s
12:000%7m/s
13:000%8.3m/s
14:000%9m/s
15:000%9.5m/s
16:000%8.7m/s
17:000%9m/s
18:000%8.6m/s
19:000%8.3m/s
20:000%8.2m/s
21:000%8.1m/s
22:000%8m/s
23:000%7.9m/s
Wed, May 20
24:000%7.8m/s
01:000%7.7m/s
02:000%7.8m/s
03:000%7.9m/s
04:000%8m/s
05:000%8m/s
06:000%8m/s
07:000%8m/s
08:000%7.7m/s
09:000%7.4m/s
10:000%7.1m/s
11:000%6.5m/s
12:000%5.9m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, May 17 Sunrise 05:10 Sunset 20:56
14:00
5.5°C 8.2°C 13°C - 100% 0.55kPa
15:00
6.6°C 8.4°C 12°C - 100% 0.42kPa
16:00
7.5°C 8.4°C 10°C - 100% 0.22kPa
17:00
7.2°C 8.5°C 10°C - 100% 0.23kPa
18:00
7.9°C 8.6°C 11°C - 100% 0.23kPa
19:00
7.1°C 8.5°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.18kPa
20:00
6.3°C 8.5°C 8.2°C - 100% 0.13kPa
21:00
6.1°C 8.4°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.08kPa
22:00
6.1°C 8.5°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.07kPa
23:00
6°C 8.4°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.05kPa
Mon, May 18 Sunrise 05:10 Sunset 20:56
24:00
5.9°C 8.3°C 6.6°C - 50% 0.05kPa
01:00
4.1°C 8.2°C 4.7°C - 22% 0.03kPa
02:00
3.7°C 8°C 4.2°C - 77% 0.03kPa
03:00
3.9°C 7.9°C 4.3°C - 100% 0.02kPa
04:00
4.5°C 7.8°C 4.8°C - 100% 0.01kPa
05:00
6.3°C 7.7°C 6.6°C - 100% 0.02kPa
06:00
5.7°C 7.7°C 6.2°C - 64% 0.03kPa
07:00
5.9°C 7.6°C 6.7°C - 86% 0.05kPa
08:00
6.3°C 7.6°C 7.9°C - 97% 0.11kPa
09:00
6.7°C 7.8°C 9.2°C - 38% 0.18kPa
10:00
7.2°C 7.9°C 10°C - 100% 0.21kPa
11:00
7.2°C 8°C 9.9°C - 100% 0.2kPa
12:00
7°C 8°C 10°C - 100% 0.26kPa
13:00
6.8°C 8°C 11°C - 96% 0.35kPa
14:00
7.1°C 8.1°C 12°C - 86% 0.37kPa
15:00
7.5°C 8.3°C 12°C - 90% 0.41kPa
16:00
7.7°C 8.5°C 13°C - 100% 0.4kPa
17:00
7.5°C 8.7°C 12°C - 58% 0.41kPa
18:00
7.6°C 8.8°C 12°C - 70% 0.4kPa
19:00
8.1°C 8.9°C 12°C - 100% 0.28kPa
20:00
8°C 8.9°C 10°C - 100% 0.15kPa
21:00
7.5°C 8.9°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.06kPa
22:00
7.5°C 8.8°C 8°C - 100% 0.04kPa
23:00
7.5°C 8.8°C 8°C - 100% 0.04kPa
Tue, May 19 Sunrise 05:09 Sunset 20:58
24:00
7.2°C 8.7°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.03kPa
01:00
7.4°C 8.7°C 7.9°C - 100% 0.03kPa
02:00
8°C 8.7°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.02kPa
03:00
8.5°C 8.6°C 8.8°C - 100% 0.02kPa
04:00
9°C 8.7°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.02kPa
05:00
9.2°C 8.7°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.02kPa
06:00
9.6°C 8.7°C 9.9°C - 100% 0.02kPa
07:00
10°C 8.8°C 10°C - 100% 0.02kPa
08:00
11°C 8.8°C 11°C - 100% 0.03kPa
09:00
11°C 8.9°C 12°C - 100% 0.1kPa
10:00
12°C 9°C 14°C - 100% 0.22kPa
11:00
12°C 9.2°C 14°C - 100% 0.25kPa
12:00
11°C 9.4°C 13°C - 100% 0.15kPa
13:00
11°C 9.6°C 15°C - 86% 0.4kPa
14:00
11°C 9.7°C 15°C - 55% 0.4kPa
15:00
11°C 9.9°C 16°C - 100% 0.44kPa
16:00
12°C 10°C 15°C - 100% 0.3kPa
17:00
11°C 10°C 14°C - 43% 0.32kPa
18:00
10°C 10°C 14°C - 100% 0.39kPa
19:00
9.5°C 10°C 13°C - 33% 0.32kPa
20:00
9.8°C 10°C 13°C - 55% 0.25kPa
21:00
10°C 10°C 12°C - 78% 0.19kPa
22:00
10°C 9.8°C 12°C - 100% 0.13kPa
23:00
10°C 9.9°C 12°C - 100% 0.17kPa
Wed, May 20 Sunrise 05:07 Sunset 20:59
24:00
10°C 9.9°C 12°C - 100% 0.2kPa
01:00
9.8°C 10°C 12°C - 100% 0.23kPa
02:00
10°C 10°C 13°C - 100% 0.26kPa
03:00
11°C 10°C 14°C - 100% 0.28kPa
04:00
11°C 10°C 15°C - 100% 0.31kPa
05:00
12°C 10°C 15°C - 100% 0.38kPa
06:00
12°C 11°C 16°C - 100% 0.45kPa
07:00
11°C 11°C 17°C - 100% 0.53kPa
08:00
12°C 11°C 17°C - 86% 0.52kPa
09:00
13°C 11°C 17°C - 73% 0.51kPa
10:00
13°C 11°C 17°C - 59% 0.5kPa
11:00
13°C 11°C 17°C - 41% 0.46kPa
12:00
12°C 12°C 16°C - 23% 0.43kPa
13:00
12°C 12°C 16°C - 5% 0.4kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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