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Rule Morning Frost

Snowshill - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Snowshill, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature8.9°C
Dew Point5.5°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed6.0m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover67%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Fri, Apr 17
14:000%7.1m/s
15:000%5.4m/s
16:000%5.3m/s
17:000%5.1m/s
18:000%5.4m/s
19:000%4.4m/s
20:000%4.7m/s
21:000%4.1m/s
22:000%3.6m/s
23:000%3.7m/s
Sat, Apr 18
24:000%4.1m/s
01:000%4m/s
02:000%4m/s
03:000%4.3m/s
04:000%4.6m/s
05:000%4.5m/s
06:000%4m/s
07:000%3.8m/s
08:000%3.7m/s
09:000%3.8m/s
10:000%5.6m/s
11:000%6.2m/s
12:000%5.9m/s
13:000%6.1m/s
14:000%6m/s
15:000%5.9m/s
16:000%5.1m/s
17:000%3.9m/s
18:000%4.7m/s
19:000%3.4m/s
20:000%3.2m/s
21:000%2.6m/s
22:000%2.1m/s
23:000%2m/s
Sun, Apr 19
24:000%2m/s
01:000%2.1m/s
02:003.1%2.1m/s
03:003.1%2.1m/s
04:003.1%2m/s
05:003.1%2m/s
06:003.1%2m/s
07:003.1%2m/s
08:003.4%2.3m/s
09:003.2%3.1m/s
10:004.5%3.8m/s
11:004.7%3.5m/s
12:004.7%3.2m/s
13:004.4%3.3m/s
14:004.4%3.4m/s
15:004%3.5m/s
16:000%3.4m/s
17:000%3.1m/s
18:000%2.3m/s
19:000%1.8m/s
20:000%1.6m/s
21:000%1.5m/s
22:000%2m/s
23:002.6%2.1m/s
Mon, Apr 20
24:002%2m/s
01:002.8%1.2m/s
02:003.5%0.4m/s
03:003.3%0.82m/s
04:003.3%1.5m/s
05:002.9%1m/s
06:002.4%0.71m/s
07:002%0.62m/s
08:002.3%0.46m/s
09:002.9%0.97m/s
10:003.4%1.6m/s
11:003.2%1.9m/s
12:003.2%1.8m/s
13:003.5%2m/s
14:004.9%2.4m/s
15:004.5%2.4m/s
16:003.5%2m/s
17:003.4%2.3m/s
18:003%2.9m/s
19:001.9%1.7m/s
20:001.9%2.1m/s
21:001.6%2.4m/s
22:001.2%2.7m/s
23:001%2.9m/s
Tue, Apr 21
24:001.1%3m/s
01:001.1%3.2m/s
02:001.6%4.3m/s
03:002.7%5.4m/s
04:003.3%6.5m/s
05:003%6.8m/s
06:002.7%7m/s
07:002.6%7.3m/s
08:002.4%7.3m/s
09:002.8%7.3m/s
10:002.8%7.3m/s
11:000%7.2m/s
12:000%7.2m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sat, Apr 18 Sunrise 06:04 Sunset 20:09
14:00
5.5°C 8.9°C 12°C - 67% 0.53kPa
15:00
5.4°C 9.2°C 12°C - 96% 0.5kPa
16:00
5.7°C 9.2°C 11°C - 50% 0.38kPa
17:00
6°C 9.3°C 11°C - 22% 0.38kPa
18:00
7.2°C 9.4°C 11°C - 89% 0.27kPa
19:00
6.7°C 9.4°C 9°C - 57% 0.16kPa
20:00
5.7°C 9.2°C 7.6°C - 3% 0.13kPa
21:00
4.1°C 9°C 5.8°C - 0% 0.1kPa
22:00
3.1°C 8.8°C 4.9°C - 0% 0.1kPa
23:00
2.6°C 8.6°C 4.4°C - 0% 0.1kPa
Sun, Apr 19 Sunrise 06:04 Sunset 20:09
24:00
2.2°C 8.3°C 3.9°C - 0% 0.09kPa
01:00
2°C 8.1°C 3.5°C - 0% 0.08kPa
02:00
1.8°C 7.8°C 3.1°C - 0% 0.07kPa
03:00
1.5°C 7.6°C 2.7°C - 0% 0.06kPa
04:00
1.4°C 7.3°C 2.5°C - 0% 0.06kPa
05:00
1°C 7.1°C 2.1°C - 0% 0.06kPa
06:00
0.7°C 6.8°C 1.9°C - 0% 0.06kPa
07:00
1.4°C 6.6°C 2.7°C - 0% 0.07kPa
08:00
2.6°C 6.6°C 4.7°C - 0% 0.11kPa
09:00
3.4°C 6.6°C 6.3°C - 0% 0.17kPa
10:00
3.7°C 6.7°C 7.7°C - 0% 0.25kPa
11:00
3.2°C 6.9°C 9.4°C - 5% 0.41kPa
12:00
2.5°C 7.1°C 11°C - 5% 0.54kPa
13:00
2.3°C 7.4°C 11°C - 7% 0.62kPa
14:00
2.4°C 7.7°C 12°C - 6% 0.66kPa
15:00
2.7°C 7.9°C 12°C - 16% 0.68kPa
16:00
2.8°C 8.2°C 12°C - 26% 0.68kPa
17:00
3.1°C 8.3°C 12°C - 49% 0.66kPa
18:00
4.7°C 8.5°C 12°C - 50% 0.54kPa
19:00
5.4°C 8.5°C 10°C - 20% 0.35kPa
20:00
3°C 8.4°C 7.2°C - 12% 0.26kPa
21:00
2.6°C 8.2°C 5.7°C - 28% 0.18kPa
22:00
2.1°C 8°C 4.9°C - 33% 0.16kPa
23:00
2°C 7.8°C 4.4°C - 30% 0.13kPa
Mon, Apr 20 Sunrise 06:02 Sunset 20:11
24:00
2°C 7.6°C 4.1°C - 70% 0.11kPa
01:00
1.9°C 7.4°C 4°C - 30% 0.11kPa
02:00
1.5°C 7.2°C 3.3°C - 5% 0.1kPa
03:00
1°C 7°C 2.7°C - 5% 0.09kPa
04:00
1°C 6.7°C 2.4°C - 7% 0.07kPa
05:00
0.8°C 6.5°C 2.1°C - 19% 0.06kPa
06:00
0.7°C 6.3°C 2.1°C - 54% 0.07kPa
07:00
2.1°C 6.1°C 3.6°C - 84% 0.08kPa
08:00
3.1°C 6.2°C 5.9°C - 96% 0.16kPa
09:00
3.5°C 6.2°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.2kPa
10:00
3.2°C 6.3°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.25kPa
11:00
2.8°C 6.4°C 7.6°C - 100% 0.29kPa
12:00
2.8°C 6.5°C 8.5°C - 94% 0.36kPa
13:00
2.8°C 6.7°C 9.7°C - 70% 0.45kPa
14:00
2.5°C 7°C 11°C - 8% 0.57kPa
15:00
2.6°C 7.2°C 11°C - 22% 0.6kPa
16:00
2.8°C 7.5°C 11°C - 66% 0.59kPa
17:00
3.7°C 7.7°C 11°C - 93% 0.53kPa
18:00
5.5°C 7.8°C 9.8°C - 100% 0.31kPa
19:00
5.8°C 7.8°C 8.5°C - 99% 0.19kPa
20:00
4.8°C 7.6°C 6.7°C - 99% 0.12kPa
21:00
3.7°C 7.4°C 4.8°C - 99% 0.06kPa
22:00
2.6°C 7.2°C 3°C - 98% 0.02kPa
23:00
2.6°C 7°C 3°C - 86% 0.02kPa
Tue, Apr 21 Sunrise 06:00 Sunset 20:13
24:00
2.7°C 6.8°C 3°C - 74% 0.02kPa
01:00
2.7°C 6.6°C 3.1°C - 61% 0.02kPa
02:00
3.5°C 6.6°C 5.1°C - 51% 0.09kPa
03:00
4.1°C 6.7°C 7.2°C - 40% 0.19kPa
04:00
4.6°C 6.8°C 9.2°C - 30% 0.31kPa
05:00
4.9°C 7°C 9.7°C - 51% 0.33kPa
06:00
5.2°C 7.2°C 10°C - 72% 0.35kPa
07:00
5.5°C 7.4°C 11°C - 93% 0.38kPa
08:00
5.1°C 7.6°C 11°C - 95% 0.44kPa
09:00
4.6°C 7.8°C 11°C - 98% 0.51kPa
10:00
4°C 8°C 12°C - 100% 0.58kPa
11:00
4.2°C 8.1°C 11°C - 100% 0.5kPa
12:00
4.3°C 8.2°C 10°C - 100% 0.43kPa
13:00
4.4°C 8.3°C 9.6°C - 100% 0.36kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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