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Rule Morning Frost

Painswick - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Painswick, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature12.9°C
Dew Point12.1°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed4.3m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sat, Jun 6
20:000%8.8m/s
21:000%8.5m/s
22:000%7.8m/s
23:000%6.9m/s
Sun, Jun 7
24:000%6.2m/s
01:000%5.5m/s
02:000%5.4m/s
03:000%5m/s
04:000%4.4m/s
05:000%4.8m/s
06:000%5.2m/s
07:000%5.5m/s
08:000%6.4m/s
09:000%6.4m/s
10:000%7m/s
11:000%7.2m/s
12:000%7.1m/s
13:000%6.7m/s
14:000%6.4m/s
15:000%6.3m/s
16:000%5.3m/s
17:000%4.8m/s
18:000%4.5m/s
19:000%4.4m/s
20:000%4.3m/s
21:000%5.2m/s
22:000%4.9m/s
23:000%5m/s
Mon, Jun 8
24:000%5m/s
01:000%5.4m/s
02:000%5.1m/s
03:000%5m/s
04:000%5m/s
05:000%5.3m/s
06:000%5.8m/s
07:000%5.9m/s
08:000%3.8m/s
09:000%4.7m/s
10:000%4.3m/s
11:000%6.4m/s
12:000%5.8m/s
13:000%5.8m/s
14:000%7m/s
15:000%7.8m/s
16:000%6.8m/s
17:000%6.1m/s
18:000%5.8m/s
19:000%6.5m/s
20:000%6.9m/s
21:000%5.7m/s
22:000%4.5m/s
23:000%3.4m/s
Tue, Jun 9
24:000%3.6m/s
01:000%3.6m/s
02:000%4.2m/s
03:000%4.4m/s
04:000%4.6m/s
05:000%5m/s
06:000%4.4m/s
07:000%4.5m/s
08:000%5.8m/s
09:000%7m/s
10:000%7.9m/s
11:000%8.5m/s
12:000%8.1m/s
13:000%8.2m/s
14:000%7.6m/s
15:000%8.5m/s
16:000%7.6m/s
17:000%8.4m/s
18:000%7.9m/s
19:000%7.3m/s
20:000%6.5m/s
21:000%6m/s
22:000%5.3m/s
23:000%4.7m/s
Wed, Jun 10
24:000%3.7m/s
01:000%3.1m/s
02:000%3.8m/s
03:000%4.6m/s
04:000%5.3m/s
05:000%6.1m/s
06:000%6.8m/s
07:000%7.6m/s
08:000%7.5m/s
09:000%7.5m/s
10:000%7.4m/s
11:000%7.1m/s
12:000%6.7m/s
13:000%6.4m/s
14:000%5.4m/s
15:000%4.5m/s
16:000%3.5m/s
17:000%3.4m/s
18:000%3.3m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, Jun 7 Sunrise 04:52 Sunset 21:23
20:00
12°C 13°C 14°C - 100% 0.22kPa
21:00
11°C 13°C 14°C - 100% 0.22kPa
22:00
11°C 13°C 13°C - 100% 0.2kPa
23:00
11°C 13°C 13°C - 100% 0.16kPa
Mon, Jun 8 Sunrise 04:52 Sunset 21:23
24:00
11°C 13°C 12°C - 100% 0.14kPa
01:00
11°C 13°C 12°C - 100% 0.1kPa
02:00
11°C 13°C 12°C - 72% 0.1kPa
03:00
11°C 13°C 12°C - 100% 0.09kPa
04:00
11°C 13°C 12°C - 100% 0.12kPa
05:00
11°C 13°C 12°C - 98% 0.14kPa
06:00
11°C 13°C 12°C - 92% 0.12kPa
07:00
11°C 12°C 12°C - 100% 0.07kPa
08:00
10°C 12°C 11°C - 100% 0.07kPa
09:00
10°C 12°C 11°C - 100% 0.07kPa
10:00
11°C 12°C 12°C - 7% 0.12kPa
11:00
11°C 12°C 14°C - 57% 0.3kPa
12:00
10°C 12°C 14°C - 25% 0.36kPa
13:00
9.2°C 13°C 15°C - 1% 0.54kPa
14:00
7.1°C 13°C 16°C - 21% 0.82kPa
15:00
7.4°C 13°C 16°C - 61% 0.74kPa
16:00
8.6°C 13°C 14°C - 58% 0.52kPa
17:00
7.3°C 13°C 14°C - 100% 0.61kPa
18:00
5.8°C 13°C 14°C - 90% 0.67kPa
19:00
6°C 13°C 13°C - 35% 0.58kPa
20:00
6.6°C 13°C 12°C - 5% 0.41kPa
21:00
6°C 13°C 10°C - 4% 0.3kPa
22:00
5.6°C 13°C 8.7°C - 5% 0.21kPa
23:00
5.7°C 12°C 7.2°C - 90% 0.1kPa
Tue, Jun 9 Sunrise 04:51 Sunset 21:24
24:00
6°C 12°C 7.2°C - 5% 0.08kPa
01:00
6.2°C 12°C 7.1°C - 2% 0.06kPa
02:00
6.4°C 12°C 7.3°C - 13% 0.06kPa
03:00
6.9°C 12°C 7.6°C - 99% 0.06kPa
04:00
6.9°C 12°C 7.6°C - 100% 0.05kPa
05:00
7.4°C 11°C 8.5°C - 8% 0.07kPa
06:00
7.2°C 11°C 8.2°C - 5% 0.07kPa
07:00
7.9°C 11°C 9.3°C - 0% 0.1kPa
08:00
7.7°C 11°C 11°C - 8% 0.23kPa
09:00
6.1°C 11°C 12°C - 10% 0.46kPa
10:00
5.7°C 11°C 13°C - 35% 0.62kPa
11:00
6.1°C 11°C 14°C - 82% 0.64kPa
12:00
6.3°C 11°C 14°C - 91% 0.64kPa
13:00
6.1°C 12°C 15°C - 100% 0.73kPa
14:00
6.9°C 12°C 14°C - 51% 0.63kPa
15:00
6.3°C 12°C 16°C - 93% 0.81kPa
16:00
6.8°C 12°C 15°C - 9% 0.66kPa
17:00
6.3°C 12°C 15°C - 54% 0.76kPa
18:00
7.9°C 12°C 14°C - 100% 0.55kPa
19:00
8°C 12°C 13°C - 100% 0.41kPa
20:00
7.8°C 12°C 12°C - 100% 0.32kPa
21:00
7.3°C 12°C 11°C - 100% 0.26kPa
22:00
7°C 12°C 10°C - 100% 0.25kPa
23:00
6.8°C 12°C 9.9°C - 100% 0.23kPa
Wed, Jun 10 Sunrise 04:51 Sunset 21:25
24:00
6.7°C 12°C 9.3°C - 100% 0.19kPa
01:00
6.6°C 12°C 8.3°C - 100% 0.11kPa
02:00
6.9°C 11°C 9.9°C - 84% 0.22kPa
03:00
7°C 11°C 12°C - 69% 0.35kPa
04:00
7°C 11°C 13°C - 53% 0.51kPa
05:00
6.9°C 11°C 13°C - 61% 0.54kPa
06:00
6.9°C 11°C 14°C - 69% 0.57kPa
07:00
6.9°C 11°C 14°C - 76% 0.61kPa
08:00
6.9°C 11°C 14°C - 84% 0.64kPa
09:00
6.9°C 11°C 15°C - 92% 0.67kPa
10:00
6.9°C 12°C 15°C - 100% 0.7kPa
11:00
7.8°C 12°C 14°C - 78% 0.54kPa
12:00
8.5°C 12°C 13°C - 56% 0.4kPa
13:00
9.1°C 12°C 12°C - 33% 0.27kPa
14:00
8.7°C 12°C 11°C - 32% 0.19kPa
15:00
8.3°C 12°C 9.8°C - 31% 0.12kPa
16:00
7.8°C 12°C 8.6°C - 30% 0.05kPa
17:00
7.3°C 11°C 8°C - 53% 0.05kPa
18:00
6.7°C 11°C 7.5°C - 76% 0.05kPa
19:00
6.2°C 11°C 7°C - 100% 0.05kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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