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Rule Morning Frost

Castle Combe - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Castle Combe, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

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Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 65% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature15.3°C
Dew Point16.0°C (high dew point)
Wind Speed0.2m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover5%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, May 24
05:000%1m/s
06:000%1m/s
07:000%1.2m/s
08:000%1.7m/s
09:000%1.8m/s
10:000%1.8m/s
11:000%1.5m/s
12:000%1.1m/s
13:000%0.24m/s
14:000%0.21m/s
15:000%0.37m/s
16:000%0.2m/s
17:000%0.24m/s
18:000%0.61m/s
19:000%0.88m/s
20:000%1.2m/s
21:000%1.4m/s
22:000%1.5m/s
23:000%1.6m/s
Mon, May 25
24:000%1.5m/s
01:000%1.3m/s
02:000%1.3m/s
03:000%1.3m/s
04:000%0.98m/s
05:000%1.1m/s
06:000%1.3m/s
07:000%1.3m/s
08:000%1.5m/s
09:000%2m/s
10:000%2.6m/s
11:000%3.3m/s
12:000%3.7m/s
13:000%3.8m/s
14:000%3.8m/s
15:000%3.9m/s
16:000%4.1m/s
17:000%3.9m/s
18:000%3.7m/s
19:000%3m/s
20:000%2.5m/s
21:000%2m/s
22:000%1.9m/s
23:000%1.8m/s
Tue, May 26
24:000%1.7m/s
01:000%1.6m/s
02:000%1.5m/s
03:000%1.5m/s
04:000%1.2m/s
05:000%1m/s
06:000%1.3m/s
07:000%1.3m/s
08:000%1.9m/s
09:000%2.5m/s
10:000%3m/s
11:000%3m/s
12:000%3.2m/s
13:000%3.1m/s
14:000%2.8m/s
15:000%2.6m/s
16:000%2.6m/s
17:000%2.1m/s
18:000%1.5m/s
19:000%1.3m/s
20:000%2m/s
21:000%2.7m/s
22:000%3.4m/s
23:000%3.8m/s
Wed, May 27
24:000%4.2m/s
01:000%4.6m/s
02:000%4.8m/s
03:000%4.9m/s
04:000%5.1m/s
05:000%5.1m/s
06:000%5.1m/s
07:000%5.2m/s
08:000%5.3m/s
09:000%5.3m/s
10:000%5.4m/s
11:000%5.5m/s
12:000%5.6m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, May 24 Sunrise 05:05 Sunset 21:06
14:00
16°C 15°C 24°C - 5% 1.2kPa
15:00
16°C 16°C 24°C - 5% 1.2kPa
16:00
16°C 16°C 25°C - 5% 1.3kPa
17:00
17°C 16°C 25°C - 5% 1.2kPa
18:00
17°C 16°C 25°C - 4% 1.1kPa
19:00
19°C 17°C 24°C - 0% 0.77kPa
20:00
18°C 17°C 22°C - 0% 0.58kPa
21:00
16°C 17°C 19°C - 0% 0.39kPa
22:00
16°C 17°C 18°C - 0% 0.32kPa
23:00
15°C 16°C 18°C - 0% 0.27kPa
Mon, May 25 Sunrise 05:05 Sunset 21:06
24:00
15°C 16°C 17°C - 0% 0.23kPa
01:00
15°C 16°C 17°C - 0% 0.22kPa
02:00
14°C 16°C 16°C - 0% 0.21kPa
03:00
14°C 16°C 16°C - 0% 0.19kPa
04:00
14°C 16°C 16°C - 0% 0.18kPa
05:00
14°C 16°C 16°C - 0% 0.17kPa
06:00
15°C 16°C 16°C - 0% 0.17kPa
07:00
16°C 16°C 18°C - 0% 0.23kPa
08:00
17°C 16°C 20°C - 0% 0.34kPa
09:00
18°C 16°C 22°C - 0% 0.49kPa
10:00
19°C 16°C 23°C - 0% 0.69kPa
11:00
19°C 16°C 25°C - 0% 0.95kPa
12:00
19°C 17°C 25°C - 0% 1.1kPa
13:00
19°C 17°C 26°C - 0% 1.2kPa
14:00
19°C 17°C 27°C - 0% 1.3kPa
15:00
19°C 17°C 27°C - 0% 1.3kPa
16:00
20°C 18°C 27°C - 0% 1.3kPa
17:00
21°C 18°C 27°C - 0% 1.1kPa
18:00
21°C 18°C 26°C - 0% 0.87kPa
19:00
20°C 18°C 24°C - 0% 0.66kPa
20:00
19°C 18°C 22°C - 0% 0.45kPa
21:00
18°C 18°C 20°C - 0% 0.31kPa
22:00
16°C 18°C 18°C - 0% 0.28kPa
23:00
15°C 18°C 17°C - 0% 0.26kPa
Tue, May 26 Sunrise 05:04 Sunset 21:07
24:00
15°C 18°C 17°C - 0% 0.25kPa
01:00
14°C 18°C 16°C - 0% 0.24kPa
02:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 0% 0.23kPa
03:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 0% 0.22kPa
04:00
13°C 17°C 15°C - 0% 0.21kPa
05:00
13°C 17°C 15°C - 0% 0.21kPa
06:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 0% 0.23kPa
07:00
15°C 17°C 18°C - 0% 0.3kPa
08:00
16°C 17°C 20°C - 0% 0.45kPa
09:00
17°C 17°C 21°C - 0% 0.64kPa
10:00
17°C 17°C 23°C - 0% 0.82kPa
11:00
17°C 17°C 24°C - 0% 1kPa
12:00
17°C 17°C 25°C - 0% 1.2kPa
13:00
17°C 18°C 26°C - 0% 1.4kPa
14:00
17°C 18°C 27°C - 0% 1.5kPa
15:00
17°C 18°C 27°C - 0% 1.6kPa
16:00
17°C 18°C 27°C - 0% 1.6kPa
17:00
18°C 19°C 27°C - 0% 1.5kPa
18:00
20°C 19°C 27°C - 0% 1.3kPa
19:00
20°C 19°C 26°C - 0% 0.98kPa
20:00
19°C 19°C 22°C - 14% 0.52kPa
21:00
16°C 18°C 18°C - 28% 0.22kPa
22:00
14°C 18°C 14°C - 43% 0.02kPa
23:00
14°C 18°C 14°C - 33% 0.05kPa
Wed, May 27 Sunrise 05:03 Sunset 21:09
24:00
14°C 18°C 15°C - 23% 0.08kPa
01:00
14°C 17°C 15°C - 13% 0.11kPa
02:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 9% 0.24kPa
03:00
15°C 17°C 18°C - 4% 0.38kPa
04:00
15°C 17°C 20°C - 0% 0.55kPa
05:00
16°C 17°C 21°C - 0% 0.67kPa
06:00
16°C 18°C 22°C - 0% 0.79kPa
07:00
17°C 18°C 23°C - 0% 0.94kPa
08:00
17°C 18°C 24°C - 2% 1kPa
09:00
17°C 18°C 24°C - 3% 1.1kPa
10:00
17°C 18°C 24°C - 5% 1.1kPa
11:00
16°C 18°C 23°C - 5% 0.97kPa
12:00
16°C 18°C 22°C - 4% 0.82kPa
13:00
16°C 18°C 21°C - 4% 0.68kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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