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Rule Morning Frost

Bourton-on-the-Water - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Bourton on the Water, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

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Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing
Wind Speed 76% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature15.4°C
Dew Point15.0°C (high dew point)
Wind Speed1.4m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover6%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 79 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, May 24
06:000%0.67m/s
07:000%0.59m/s
08:000%0.66m/s
09:000%0.56m/s
10:000%0.51m/s
11:000%0.44m/s
12:000%0.68m/s
13:000%1m/s
14:000%1.4m/s
15:000%1.6m/s
16:000%1.6m/s
17:000%1.4m/s
18:000%1m/s
19:000%1.2m/s
20:000%1.4m/s
21:000%1.3m/s
22:000%1.1m/s
23:000%1.1m/s
Mon, May 25
24:000%1.1m/s
01:000%1.3m/s
02:000%1.6m/s
03:000%1.5m/s
04:000%1.6m/s
05:000%1.1m/s
06:000%0.79m/s
07:000%0.99m/s
08:000%1.3m/s
09:000%1.7m/s
10:000%2.3m/s
11:000%2.7m/s
12:000%3.2m/s
13:000%3.6m/s
14:000%3.6m/s
15:000%3.5m/s
16:000%3.3m/s
17:000%2.9m/s
18:000%2.2m/s
19:000%1.9m/s
20:000%2.1m/s
21:000%2.3m/s
22:000%2.5m/s
23:000%2.4m/s
Tue, May 26
24:000%2.3m/s
01:000%2.3m/s
02:000%2.2m/s
03:000%1.9m/s
04:000%1.6m/s
05:000%1.7m/s
06:000%1.9m/s
07:000%2m/s
08:000%2.2m/s
09:000%2.6m/s
10:000%2.8m/s
11:000%2.7m/s
12:000%2.7m/s
13:000%2.6m/s
14:000%2.6m/s
15:000%2.4m/s
16:000%2.2m/s
17:000%1.9m/s
18:000%1.5m/s
19:000%1.1m/s
20:000%1.7m/s
21:000%2.4m/s
22:000%3.1m/s
23:000%3.1m/s
Wed, May 27
24:000%3.1m/s
01:000%3.1m/s
02:000%3.6m/s
03:000%4.2m/s
04:000%4.7m/s
05:000%4.9m/s
06:000%5.1m/s
07:000%5.2m/s
08:000%5.3m/s
09:000%5.4m/s
10:000%5.5m/s
11:000%5.5m/s
12:000%5.6m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Sun, May 24 Sunrise 05:01 Sunset 21:06
14:00
15°C 15°C 23°C - 6% 1.2kPa
15:00
15°C 16°C 24°C - 5% 1.2kPa
16:00
16°C 16°C 24°C - 5% 1.2kPa
17:00
16°C 16°C 24°C - 5% 1.2kPa
18:00
16°C 16°C 24°C - 5% 1.1kPa
19:00
19°C 16°C 23°C - 0% 0.72kPa
20:00
17°C 16°C 21°C - 0% 0.53kPa
21:00
15°C 16°C 18°C - 0% 0.36kPa
22:00
14°C 16°C 17°C - 0% 0.33kPa
23:00
14°C 16°C 17°C - 0% 0.3kPa
Mon, May 25 Sunrise 05:01 Sunset 21:06
24:00
14°C 16°C 17°C - 0% 0.27kPa
01:00
14°C 16°C 16°C - 0% 0.25kPa
02:00
14°C 16°C 16°C - 0% 0.22kPa
03:00
14°C 16°C 16°C - 0% 0.19kPa
04:00
14°C 16°C 15°C - 0% 0.17kPa
05:00
14°C 16°C 15°C - 0% 0.16kPa
06:00
15°C 15°C 16°C - 0% 0.16kPa
07:00
17°C 15°C 18°C - 0% 0.24kPa
08:00
18°C 16°C 20°C - 0% 0.33kPa
09:00
18°C 16°C 22°C - 0% 0.48kPa
10:00
19°C 16°C 23°C - 0% 0.63kPa
11:00
19°C 16°C 24°C - 0% 0.79kPa
12:00
19°C 16°C 25°C - 0% 0.96kPa
13:00
19°C 17°C 26°C - 0% 1.1kPa
14:00
19°C 17°C 26°C - 0% 1.3kPa
15:00
19°C 17°C 26°C - 0% 1.3kPa
16:00
19°C 17°C 27°C - 0% 1.3kPa
17:00
20°C 18°C 27°C - 0% 1.3kPa
18:00
21°C 18°C 27°C - 0% 1kPa
19:00
22°C 18°C 26°C - 0% 0.75kPa
20:00
21°C 18°C 24°C - 0% 0.51kPa
21:00
20°C 18°C 21°C - 0% 0.29kPa
22:00
18°C 18°C 20°C - 0% 0.25kPa
23:00
17°C 18°C 19°C - 0% 0.24kPa
Tue, May 26 Sunrise 05:00 Sunset 21:07
24:00
16°C 18°C 18°C - 0% 0.22kPa
01:00
15°C 18°C 17°C - 0% 0.22kPa
02:00
15°C 18°C 17°C - 0% 0.22kPa
03:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 0% 0.22kPa
04:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 0% 0.22kPa
05:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 0% 0.22kPa
06:00
14°C 17°C 16°C - 0% 0.25kPa
07:00
16°C 17°C 18°C - 0% 0.31kPa
08:00
16°C 17°C 20°C - 0% 0.5kPa
09:00
17°C 17°C 22°C - 0% 0.68kPa
10:00
17°C 17°C 23°C - 0% 0.87kPa
11:00
17°C 17°C 24°C - 0% 1.1kPa
12:00
17°C 18°C 25°C - 0% 1.2kPa
13:00
17°C 18°C 26°C - 0% 1.4kPa
14:00
17°C 18°C 26°C - 0% 1.5kPa
15:00
17°C 18°C 27°C - 0% 1.6kPa
16:00
17°C 18°C 27°C - 0% 1.5kPa
17:00
18°C 19°C 27°C - 0% 1.5kPa
18:00
19°C 19°C 27°C - 0% 1.3kPa
19:00
21°C 19°C 26°C - 0% 0.92kPa
20:00
19°C 19°C 22°C - 32% 0.49kPa
21:00
16°C 19°C 18°C - 65% 0.21kPa
22:00
13°C 18°C 13°C - 97% 0.03kPa
23:00
13°C 18°C 14°C - 97% 0.07kPa
Wed, May 27 Sunrise 04:59 Sunset 21:09
24:00
13°C 18°C 14°C - 96% 0.1kPa
01:00
13°C 18°C 15°C - 96% 0.13kPa
02:00
14°C 18°C 16°C - 66% 0.23kPa
03:00
14°C 18°C 17°C - 37% 0.34kPa
04:00
14°C 18°C 18°C - 8% 0.46kPa
05:00
15°C 18°C 20°C - 6% 0.58kPa
06:00
16°C 18°C 21°C - 5% 0.71kPa
07:00
16°C 18°C 22°C - 4% 0.86kPa
08:00
16°C 18°C 23°C - 8% 0.89kPa
09:00
16°C 18°C 23°C - 11% 0.92kPa
10:00
17°C 18°C 23°C - 15% 0.96kPa
11:00
17°C 18°C 22°C - 12% 0.82kPa
12:00
16°C 18°C 21°C - 8% 0.69kPa
13:00
16°C 18°C 21°C - 5% 0.58kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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