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Rule Morning Frost

Bourton-on-the-Water - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Bourton on the Water, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

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Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 94% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature20.7°C
Dew Point13.2°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed2.7m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover0%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Jul 8
05:000%1m/s
06:000%0.96m/s
07:000%1.4m/s
08:000%1.9m/s
09:000%2.2m/s
10:000%2.3m/s
11:000%2m/s
12:000%2.1m/s
13:000%2.4m/s
14:000%2.7m/s
15:000%2.8m/s
16:000%2.8m/s
17:000%2.4m/s
18:000%2m/s
19:000%2.1m/s
20:000%3.2m/s
21:000%3.7m/s
22:000%3.6m/s
23:000%3.9m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%2.6m/s
01:000%1.9m/s
02:000%1.9m/s
03:000%2.1m/s
04:000%2.3m/s
05:000%2m/s
06:000%1.9m/s
07:000%1.8m/s
08:000%2.3m/s
09:000%2.8m/s
10:000%2.6m/s
11:000%2.2m/s
12:000%2.2m/s
13:000%2.4m/s
14:000%2.7m/s
15:000%2.9m/s
16:000%2.8m/s
17:000%2.8m/s
18:000%2.6m/s
19:000%2.5m/s
20:000%2.2m/s
21:000%2.8m/s
22:000%3.3m/s
23:000%2.7m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%1.7m/s
01:000%2.3m/s
02:000%2.8m/s
03:000%2.6m/s
04:000%2.6m/s
05:000%2.6m/s
06:000%2.2m/s
07:000%1.5m/s
08:000%1.4m/s
09:000%1.5m/s
10:000%2.5m/s
11:000%2.8m/s
12:000%2.6m/s
13:000%1.9m/s
14:000%1.3m/s
15:000%1m/s
16:000%1.7m/s
17:000%2.3m/s
18:000%3.5m/s
19:000%4.6m/s
20:000%3.8m/s
21:000%2.9m/s
22:000%2.1m/s
23:000%2.3m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%2.5m/s
01:000%2.6m/s
02:000%3.4m/s
03:000%4.2m/s
04:000%5m/s
05:000%5.2m/s
06:000%5.3m/s
07:000%5.5m/s
08:000%5.6m/s
09:000%5.8m/s
10:000%5.9m/s
11:000%6.6m/s
12:000%7.4m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 04:58 Sunset 21:25
14:00
13°C 21°C 30°C - 0% 2.6kPa
15:00
12°C 21°C 31°C - 5% 3kPa
16:00
10°C 21°C 31°C - 5% 3.3kPa
17:00
9°C 22°C 31°C - 5% 3.4kPa
18:00
9.2°C 22°C 31°C - 5% 3.4kPa
19:00
11°C 22°C 31°C - 5% 3.1kPa
20:00
13°C 22°C 28°C - 1% 2.3kPa
21:00
13°C 22°C 25°C - 5% 1.6kPa
22:00
13°C 22°C 23°C - 5% 1.3kPa
23:00
14°C 22°C 22°C - 2% 1kPa
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 04:58 Sunset 21:25
24:00
14°C 22°C 19°C - 5% 0.63kPa
01:00
14°C 22°C 18°C - 2% 0.46kPa
02:00
14°C 22°C 17°C - 0% 0.37kPa
03:00
14°C 21°C 16°C - 5% 0.32kPa
04:00
13°C 21°C 16°C - 5% 0.25kPa
05:00
13°C 21°C 15°C - 5% 0.19kPa
06:00
13°C 20°C 16°C - 5% 0.28kPa
07:00
13°C 20°C 18°C - 5% 0.6kPa
08:00
13°C 20°C 21°C - 24% 0.96kPa
09:00
13°C 20°C 23°C - 24% 1.3kPa
10:00
13°C 21°C 25°C - 5% 1.6kPa
11:00
13°C 21°C 27°C - 4% 2.1kPa
12:00
11°C 21°C 29°C - 3% 2.7kPa
13:00
9.3°C 22°C 30°C - 0% 3.1kPa
14:00
8.3°C 22°C 31°C - 5% 3.4kPa
15:00
7.5°C 22°C 32°C - 5% 3.7kPa
16:00
7.2°C 23°C 32°C - 5% 3.8kPa
17:00
6.9°C 23°C 32°C - 3% 3.8kPa
18:00
6.9°C 23°C 32°C - 3% 3.8kPa
19:00
7.2°C 24°C 31°C - 5% 3.6kPa
20:00
9.3°C 24°C 29°C - 5% 2.9kPa
21:00
8.5°C 24°C 26°C - 9% 2.2kPa
22:00
10°C 24°C 22°C - 4% 1.4kPa
23:00
11°C 23°C 20°C - 4% 1.1kPa
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 04:59 Sunset 21:24
24:00
10°C 23°C 19°C - 3% 0.88kPa
01:00
10°C 23°C 18°C - 3% 0.86kPa
02:00
11°C 22°C 17°C - 3% 0.71kPa
03:00
12°C 22°C 16°C - 3% 0.48kPa
04:00
13°C 22°C 16°C - 7% 0.27kPa
05:00
14°C 22°C 15°C - 7% 0.17kPa
06:00
14°C 21°C 16°C - 3% 0.24kPa
07:00
14°C 21°C 19°C - 0% 0.63kPa
08:00
13°C 21°C 22°C - 0% 1.2kPa
09:00
13°C 21°C 25°C - 0% 1.7kPa
10:00
13°C 21°C 27°C - 0% 2.2kPa
11:00
13°C 22°C 29°C - 2% 2.6kPa
12:00
12°C 22°C 31°C - 2% 3.1kPa
13:00
12°C 23°C 33°C - 1% 3.5kPa
14:00
11°C 23°C 34°C - 1% 4kPa
15:00
10°C 24°C 35°C - 3% 4.3kPa
16:00
9.4°C 24°C 35°C - 63% 4.3kPa
17:00
8.9°C 25°C 34°C - 79% 4.3kPa
18:00
9°C 25°C 34°C - 93% 4.1kPa
19:00
10°C 25°C 32°C - 100% 3.4kPa
20:00
13°C 25°C 27°C - 73% 1.9kPa
21:00
14°C 24°C 22°C - 46% 1kPa
22:00
13°C 23°C 17°C - 19% 0.41kPa
23:00
13°C 23°C 17°C - 28% 0.44kPa
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 05:00 Sunset 21:24
24:00
13°C 23°C 18°C - 37% 0.48kPa
01:00
14°C 23°C 18°C - 46% 0.51kPa
02:00
14°C 23°C 21°C - 32% 0.86kPa
03:00
13°C 23°C 23°C - 19% 1.3kPa
04:00
12°C 23°C 25°C - 5% 1.8kPa
05:00
12°C 23°C 27°C - 3% 2.2kPa
06:00
11°C 23°C 28°C - 2% 2.5kPa
07:00
10°C 23°C 30°C - 0% 3kPa
08:00
10°C 23°C 31°C - 2% 3.1kPa
09:00
9.8°C 24°C 31°C - 3% 3.3kPa
10:00
9.4°C 24°C 32°C - 5% 3.4kPa
11:00
9.9°C 24°C 31°C - 3% 3.1kPa
12:00
10°C 24°C 30°C - 2% 2.9kPa
13:00
11°C 24°C 29°C - 0% 2.6kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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