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Rule Morning Frost

Bourton-on-the-Water - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Bourton on the Water, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 100% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature12.4°C
Dew Point10.5°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed5.8m/s (moderate winds)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 92 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Sun, Jun 7
06:000%5.2m/s
07:000%5.7m/s
08:000%5.8m/s
09:000%6.5m/s
10:000%7.2m/s
11:000%7.3m/s
12:000%7.5m/s
13:000%6.7m/s
14:000%7.2m/s
15:000%6.8m/s
16:000%5.4m/s
17:000%5.2m/s
18:000%4.3m/s
19:000%4.7m/s
20:000%4.9m/s
21:000%4.8m/s
22:000%5.5m/s
23:000%5.7m/s
Mon, Jun 8
24:000%5.7m/s
01:000%5.8m/s
02:000%5.6m/s
03:000%5.8m/s
04:000%6m/s
05:000%5.7m/s
06:000%5.8m/s
07:000%6.3m/s
08:000%5.5m/s
09:000%4.6m/s
10:000%5.1m/s
11:000%4.3m/s
12:000%4.8m/s
13:000%5.8m/s
14:000%5.5m/s
15:000%7.1m/s
16:000%6.9m/s
17:000%6.8m/s
18:000%6.8m/s
19:000%6m/s
20:000%4.8m/s
21:000%3.4m/s
22:000%4.6m/s
23:000%4.7m/s
Tue, Jun 9
24:000%4.4m/s
01:000%4.3m/s
02:000%4.3m/s
03:000%4.6m/s
04:000%4.5m/s
05:000%4.9m/s
06:000%5.2m/s
07:000%5.6m/s
08:000%6.5m/s
09:000%6.6m/s
10:000%7.1m/s
11:000%7.3m/s
12:000%7.7m/s
13:000%7.9m/s
14:000%8.6m/s
15:000%8.3m/s
16:000%7.8m/s
17:000%7.2m/s
18:000%6.8m/s
19:000%5.9m/s
20:000%5.5m/s
21:000%5m/s
22:000%4.4m/s
23:000%4.4m/s
Wed, Jun 10
24:000%4.3m/s
01:000%4.2m/s
02:000%4.2m/s
03:000%3.6m/s
04:000%3.7m/s
05:000%3.3m/s
06:000%3.2m/s
07:000%3.3m/s
08:000%4.5m/s
09:000%5.3m/s
10:000%5.5m/s
11:000%6.1m/s
12:000%6.4m/s
13:000%7.7m/s
14:000%6.2m/s
15:000%4.7m/s
16:000%3.2m/s
17:000%3.1m/s
18:000%3.1m/s
19:000%3.1m/s
20:000%3.1m/s
21:000%3m/s
22:000%3m/s
23:000%3.5m/s
Thu, Jun 11
24:000%4m/s
01:000%4.5m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Mon, Jun 8 Sunrise 04:49 Sunset 21:23
03:00
11°C 12°C 11°C - 100% 0.08kPa
04:00
10°C 12°C 12°C - 100% 0.11kPa
05:00
10°C 12°C 12°C - 100% 0.13kPa
06:00
10°C 12°C 12°C - 100% 0.16kPa
07:00
11°C 12°C 12°C - 100% 0.12kPa
08:00
11°C 12°C 11°C - 100% 0.05kPa
09:00
11°C 12°C 12°C - 100% 0.06kPa
10:00
11°C 12°C 12°C - 100% 0.14kPa
11:00
11°C 12°C 12°C - 100% 0.09kPa
12:00
10°C 12°C 13°C - 20% 0.21kPa
13:00
9.2°C 12°C 15°C - 20% 0.5kPa
14:00
7.4°C 12°C 16°C - 67% 0.78kPa
15:00
8°C 12°C 15°C - 45% 0.6kPa
16:00
8°C 13°C 14°C - 57% 0.57kPa
17:00
6.3°C 13°C 15°C - 20% 0.73kPa
18:00
6.3°C 13°C 14°C - 9% 0.68kPa
19:00
5.8°C 13°C 13°C - 3% 0.6kPa
20:00
5.4°C 13°C 12°C - 3% 0.48kPa
21:00
5.4°C 13°C 9.2°C - 5% 0.27kPa
22:00
5.5°C 12°C 8.1°C - 5% 0.17kPa
23:00
5.5°C 12°C 7.6°C - 5% 0.14kPa
Tue, Jun 9 Sunrise 04:49 Sunset 21:23
24:00
5.5°C 12°C 7°C - 64% 0.09kPa
01:00
5.6°C 12°C 6.6°C - 99% 0.07kPa
02:00
5.8°C 12°C 6.6°C - 5% 0.05kPa
03:00
5.9°C 11°C 6.6°C - 5% 0.05kPa
04:00
6°C 11°C 6.6°C - 12% 0.04kPa
05:00
6.1°C 11°C 6.8°C - 100% 0.04kPa
06:00
6.9°C 11°C 8.2°C - 8% 0.09kPa
07:00
7.3°C 11°C 9.5°C - 24% 0.16kPa
08:00
6.6°C 11°C 10°C - 32% 0.29kPa
09:00
6.3°C 11°C 12°C - 32% 0.42kPa
10:00
5°C 11°C 13°C - 5% 0.63kPa
11:00
5°C 11°C 14°C - 56% 0.71kPa
12:00
6.7°C 11°C 14°C - 95% 0.58kPa
13:00
8.5°C 11°C 13°C - 22% 0.36kPa
14:00
7.5°C 11°C 14°C - 55% 0.54kPa
15:00
6.9°C 12°C 14°C - 54% 0.6kPa
16:00
6°C 12°C 15°C - 77% 0.72kPa
17:00
6.4°C 12°C 14°C - 40% 0.66kPa
18:00
6.9°C 12°C 14°C - 5% 0.61kPa
19:00
7.8°C 12°C 13°C - 5% 0.44kPa
20:00
7.6°C 12°C 12°C - 5% 0.36kPa
21:00
7.1°C 12°C 10°C - 32% 0.24kPa
22:00
7.1°C 12°C 8.5°C - 16% 0.1kPa
23:00
6.9°C 12°C 7.7°C - 70% 0.06kPa
Wed, Jun 10 Sunrise 04:49 Sunset 21:23
24:00
6.7°C 11°C 7.4°C - 36% 0.05kPa
01:00
6.5°C 11°C 7.2°C - 65% 0.05kPa
02:00
6.6°C 11°C 7.2°C - 96% 0.04kPa
03:00
6.4°C 11°C 7.1°C - 100% 0.04kPa
04:00
6.5°C 11°C 7.2°C - 100% 0.05kPa
05:00
6.1°C 11°C 6.7°C - 36% 0.04kPa
06:00
6.1°C 11°C 7°C - 5% 0.06kPa
07:00
6.9°C 11°C 9.5°C - 13% 0.19kPa
08:00
6.6°C 11°C 11°C - 5% 0.36kPa
09:00
6.3°C 11°C 12°C - 5% 0.46kPa
10:00
6.2°C 11°C 13°C - 100% 0.55kPa
11:00
6.9°C 11°C 13°C - 100% 0.51kPa
12:00
5.8°C 11°C 14°C - 68% 0.68kPa
13:00
6°C 11°C 15°C - 87% 0.72kPa
14:00
6.9°C 11°C 13°C - 91% 0.46kPa
15:00
7.3°C 11°C 11°C - 96% 0.25kPa
16:00
7.4°C 12°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.09kPa
17:00
7.1°C 11°C 8.2°C - 100% 0.08kPa
18:00
6.7°C 11°C 7.7°C - 100% 0.07kPa
19:00
6.4°C 11°C 7.3°C - 100% 0.06kPa
20:00
6.5°C 11°C 7.4°C - 100% 0.06kPa
21:00
6.6°C 11°C 7.5°C - 100% 0.06kPa
22:00
6.7°C 11°C 7.6°C - 100% 0.07kPa
23:00
7.7°C 11°C 8.6°C - 100% 0.06kPa
Thu, Jun 11 Sunrise 04:48 Sunset 21:24
24:00
8.7°C 11°C 9.5°C - 100% 0.06kPa
01:00
9.8°C 11°C 10°C - 100% 0.05kPa
02:00
9.7°C 11°C 10°C - 100% 0.05kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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