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Rule Morning Frost

Bibury - Morning Frost - Cotswolds

Bibury, England, United Kingdom

Frost crystals on calm, cold mornings near sunrise

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Morning Frost opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Time Window · Sunrise -45m to +90m Frost Probability · ≥ 60.0% Wind Speed · ≤ 1.5m/s

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Frost Probability 100% failing
Wind Speed 94% failing
Time Window 88% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Soil Temperature21.5°C
Dew Point10.2°C (moderate dew point)
Wind Speed2.6m/s (calm conditions)
Cloud Cover3%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Europe/London

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast identifies when hard frost transforms the Cotswolds' honey-stone architecture and pastoral landscapes into crystalline winter wonderlands. We track overnight minimum temperatures, clear sky conditions, and ground frost risk to predict optimal frosted morning photography.

The Cotswolds' inland position and elevation (typically 200-330m) create reliable frost conditions during winter anticyclones. Clear skies and light winds allow radiative cooling to create heavy frost deposits on thatched roofs, dry stone walls, and riverside vegetation—all set against honey-colored Jurassic limestone that glows warmly against frozen foregrounds.

What makes Cotswolds frost photography distinctive:

  • Frosted thatch - Castle Combe's thatched cottages with heavy frost on golden stone—quintessentially English winter scenes
  • Arlington Row ice - Bibury's iconic weavers' cottages with frosted rooflines and icy River Coln creating mirror reflections
  • Frozen waterways - Bourton-on-the-Water's bridges with icy stream edges, Lower Slaughter's mill with frozen mill race
  • Churchyard frost - Painswick's famous 99 yew trees with frost-laden branches surrounding ancient gravestones

The most photogenic frost occurs during settled high pressure periods (December-February), particularly after clear, calm nights. Arlington Row at Bibury is England's most photographed village for good reason—frost on the 17th-century weavers' cottages creates magazine-cover compositions. Castle Combe's compact valley setting traps cold air, producing reliable frost that highlights its honey-stone cottages and medieval market cross. Arrive at first light while frost remains intact—winter sunrise around 8:00am gives time to scout compositions in pre-dawn light. The contrast between warm honey-stone and cold blue frost works beautifully in morning light.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 80 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Europe/London
Time Window
Sunrise -45m to +90m
Frost Probability
≥ 60.0%
Wind Speed
≤ 1.5m/s
Wed, Jul 8
05:000%1.5m/s
06:000%1.6m/s
07:000%1.5m/s
08:000%1.9m/s
09:000%1.8m/s
10:000%1.4m/s
11:000%1.1m/s
12:000%1.4m/s
13:000%2.1m/s
14:000%2.6m/s
15:000%2.9m/s
16:000%3m/s
17:000%3.3m/s
18:000%3.8m/s
19:000%4m/s
20:000%3.8m/s
21:000%3.7m/s
22:000%4m/s
23:000%3.6m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%3m/s
01:000%1.9m/s
02:000%2m/s
03:000%2.7m/s
04:000%2.9m/s
05:000%2.4m/s
06:000%2.2m/s
07:000%2m/s
08:000%2.3m/s
09:000%2.2m/s
10:000%2m/s
11:000%1.4m/s
12:000%1.6m/s
13:000%2.1m/s
14:000%2.5m/s
15:000%2.8m/s
16:000%2.9m/s
17:000%2.9m/s
18:000%2.8m/s
19:000%3.2m/s
20:000%3.2m/s
21:000%3.4m/s
22:000%3.8m/s
23:000%3.7m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%4.2m/s
01:000%4.6m/s
02:000%4m/s
03:000%3.5m/s
04:000%3.5m/s
05:000%3m/s
06:000%2.6m/s
07:000%2.3m/s
08:000%2.2m/s
09:000%2.2m/s
10:000%2.3m/s
11:000%2.5m/s
12:000%2.5m/s
13:000%1.6m/s
14:000%0.67m/s
15:000%0.32m/s
16:000%1.3m/s
17:000%2.4m/s
18:000%3.5m/s
19:000%5.4m/s
20:000%4.3m/s
21:000%3.2m/s
22:000%2.1m/s
23:000%2.3m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%2.5m/s
01:000%2.6m/s
02:000%3.4m/s
03:000%4.2m/s
04:000%5m/s
05:000%5.2m/s
06:000%5.3m/s
07:000%5.5m/s
08:000%5.6m/s
09:000%5.8m/s
10:000%5.9m/s
11:000%6.6m/s
12:000%7.4m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Frost Probability mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Europe/London
Dew Point
°C
Surface Temperature
°C
Temperature
°C
Time Window
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Vapor Pressure Deficit
kPa
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 04:59 Sunset 21:25
14:00
10°C 21°C 31°C - 3% 3.2kPa
15:00
9.2°C 22°C 31°C - 9% 3.4kPa
16:00
8.9°C 22°C 32°C - 5% 3.6kPa
17:00
9.8°C 23°C 32°C - 5% 3.5kPa
18:00
11°C 23°C 31°C - 5% 3.3kPa
19:00
12°C 23°C 30°C - 5% 2.9kPa
20:00
13°C 23°C 28°C - 0% 2.3kPa
21:00
13°C 23°C 24°C - 1% 1.6kPa
22:00
13°C 23°C 22°C - 1% 1.1kPa
23:00
14°C 23°C 21°C - 0% 0.91kPa
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 04:59 Sunset 21:25
24:00
14°C 23°C 20°C - 1% 0.73kPa
01:00
14°C 22°C 19°C - 4% 0.54kPa
02:00
14°C 22°C 18°C - 5% 0.47kPa
03:00
14°C 22°C 18°C - 5% 0.44kPa
04:00
14°C 22°C 17°C - 6% 0.39kPa
05:00
13°C 21°C 16°C - 5% 0.32kPa
06:00
13°C 21°C 17°C - 5% 0.4kPa
07:00
14°C 21°C 20°C - 6% 0.72kPa
08:00
14°C 21°C 22°C - 14% 1.1kPa
09:00
14°C 21°C 24°C - 47% 1.4kPa
10:00
14°C 21°C 26°C - 5% 1.9kPa
11:00
13°C 22°C 29°C - 5% 2.4kPa
12:00
11°C 22°C 30°C - 5% 3kPa
13:00
9.4°C 22°C 31°C - 4% 3.4kPa
14:00
8.3°C 23°C 32°C - 5% 3.7kPa
15:00
7.7°C 23°C 33°C - 5% 3.9kPa
16:00
7.3°C 24°C 33°C - 5% 4kPa
17:00
7.1°C 24°C 33°C - 5% 4kPa
18:00
6.9°C 24°C 33°C - 6% 3.9kPa
19:00
7°C 24°C 32°C - 6% 3.8kPa
20:00
8.8°C 25°C 30°C - 8% 3kPa
21:00
8.5°C 24°C 26°C - 18% 2.3kPa
22:00
8.1°C 24°C 24°C - 10% 1.9kPa
23:00
9.9°C 24°C 22°C - 9% 1.4kPa
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 05:00 Sunset 21:24
24:00
11°C 24°C 20°C - 20% 1.1kPa
01:00
11°C 24°C 20°C - 21% 1kPa
02:00
11°C 23°C 19°C - 17% 0.88kPa
03:00
11°C 23°C 18°C - 50% 0.68kPa
04:00
12°C 23°C 17°C - 75% 0.52kPa
05:00
13°C 23°C 16°C - 64% 0.35kPa
06:00
13°C 22°C 17°C - 38% 0.4kPa
07:00
13°C 22°C 20°C - 28% 0.81kPa
08:00
13°C 22°C 23°C - 10% 1.3kPa
09:00
13°C 22°C 26°C - 4% 1.8kPa
10:00
13°C 22°C 28°C - 4% 2.3kPa
11:00
13°C 23°C 30°C - 4% 2.7kPa
12:00
12°C 23°C 32°C - 1% 3.2kPa
13:00
12°C 24°C 33°C - 0% 3.8kPa
14:00
11°C 24°C 35°C - 1% 4.3kPa
15:00
10°C 25°C 35°C - 14% 4.5kPa
16:00
9.3°C 25°C 35°C - 67% 4.5kPa
17:00
8.9°C 26°C 35°C - 86% 4.3kPa
18:00
10°C 26°C 33°C - 100% 3.9kPa
19:00
13°C 26°C 29°C - 100% 2.5kPa
20:00
14°C 25°C 25°C - 73% 1.6kPa
21:00
14°C 24°C 21°C - 46% 0.87kPa
22:00
13°C 23°C 17°C - 19% 0.41kPa
23:00
13°C 23°C 17°C - 28% 0.44kPa
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 05:01 Sunset 21:23
24:00
13°C 23°C 18°C - 37% 0.48kPa
01:00
14°C 23°C 18°C - 46% 0.51kPa
02:00
14°C 23°C 21°C - 32% 0.86kPa
03:00
13°C 23°C 23°C - 19% 1.3kPa
04:00
12°C 23°C 25°C - 5% 1.8kPa
05:00
12°C 23°C 27°C - 3% 2.2kPa
06:00
11°C 23°C 28°C - 2% 2.5kPa
07:00
10°C 23°C 30°C - 0% 3kPa
08:00
10°C 23°C 31°C - 2% 3.1kPa
09:00
9.8°C 24°C 31°C - 3% 3.3kPa
10:00
9.4°C 24°C 32°C - 5% 3.4kPa
11:00
9.9°C 24°C 31°C - 3% 3.1kPa
12:00
10°C 24°C 30°C - 2% 2.9kPa
13:00
11°C 24°C 29°C - 0% 2.6kPa
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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