Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Newcastle, Australian Coast

Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia

Newcastle combines a working harbor and Nobbys Lighthouse with ocean baths, sandstone cliffs, and exposed beaches shaped by strong Pacific swell.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

CAPE18

Lifted Index4.1°C

Wind Gusts5.8m/s

Precipitation0.1mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Sydney

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (95-hour forecast)

Storm Intensity100% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Newcastle.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Newcastle during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 52% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 52% average confidence

Only 4 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 95 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Australia/Sydney	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Sat, Aug 22
05:00	0%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%
21:00	7%
22:00	10%
23:00	11%
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	11%
01:00	12%
02:00	7%
03:00	0%
04:00	17%
05:00	7%
06:00	9%
07:00	0%
08:00	7%
09:00	7%
10:00	11%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%
21:00	0%
22:00	0%
23:00	0%
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	0%
01:00	0%
02:00	0%
03:00	0%
04:00	0%
05:00	0%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	11%
18:00	11%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%
21:00	0%
22:00	0%
23:00	0%
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	0%
01:00	0%
02:00	0%
03:00	0%
04:00	0%
05:00	0%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	0%
12:00	9%
13:00	14%
14:00	16%
15:00	20%
16:00	37%
17:00	27%
18:00	25%
19:00	34%
20:00	21%
21:00	27%
22:00	28%
23:00	23%
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	19%
01:00	21%
02:00	13%
03:00	0%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Australia/Sydney	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:23 Sunset 17:28
05:00 ☾	1025hPa	18J/kg	0.56fraction	4.1°C	50%	0mm	0.04mm	-2.1dBZ	0.06mm	24134m	5.8m/s	-	-	4.6m/s
06:00 ☾	1025hPa	13J/kg	0.47fraction	4.5°C	45%	0mm	0.02mm	-11dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	5.6m/s	-	-	4.4m/s
07:00 ☾	1026hPa	16J/kg	0.37fraction	4.5°C	39%	0mm	0.04mm	-20dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	5.5m/s	8.3m/s	12m/s	4.4m/s
08:00 ☾	1026hPa	19J/kg	0.41fraction	4.7°C	39%	0mm	0.06mm	-15dBZ	0.19mm	24134m	5.6m/s	-	-	4.6m/s
09:00 ☾	1026hPa	17J/kg	0.44fraction	4.9°C	39%	0mm	0.03mm	-10dBZ	0.25mm	24134m	5.3m/s	-	-	4.8m/s
10:00	1026hPa	13J/kg	0.48fraction	5.3°C	39%	0.01mm	0mm	-5dBZ	0.25mm	24134m	5.3m/s	6.7m/s	10m/s	5m/s
11:00	1026hPa	4J/kg	0.32fraction	5.5°C	26%	0mm	0.01mm	-4.6dBZ	0mm	24134m	5m/s	-	-	5.5m/s
12:00	1026hPa	0J/kg	0.16fraction	5.6°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-4.2dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.4m/s	-	-	5.2m/s
13:00	1025hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-3.9dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.3m/s	6m/s	9.2m/s	4.8m/s
14:00	1024hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-9.3dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.4m/s	-	-	5m/s
15:00	1024hPa	3J/kg	0fraction	5.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	24135m	5.7m/s	-	-	4.9m/s
16:00	1024hPa	2J/kg	0fraction	5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	6m/s	7.1m/s	9.9m/s	5.4m/s
17:00	1024hPa	1J/kg	0fraction	5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.7m/s	-	-	5.6m/s
18:00 ☾	1025hPa	4J/kg	0fraction	4.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	7.3m/s	-	-	5.6m/s
19:00 ☾	1026hPa	7J/kg	0fraction	4.5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	7.9m/s	8.5m/s	10m/s	5.6m/s
20:00 ☾	1026hPa	9J/kg	0fraction	4.4°C	0%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	7.9m/s	-	-	5m/s
21:00 ☾	1026hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	4.6°C	0%	0mm	0.02mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	8.3m/s	-	-	5m/s
22:00 ☾	1026hPa	6J/kg	0fraction	5.1°C	0%	0mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	8.9m/s	8.8m/s	11m/s	4.8m/s
23:00 ☾	1025hPa	1J/kg	0fraction	5.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	8.7m/s	-	-	4.2m/s
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:22 Sunset 17:29
24:00 ☾	1025hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.1m/s	-	-	4m/s
01:00 ☾	1025hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	9.4m/s	9.7m/s	13m/s	4m/s
02:00 ☾	1025hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	9.5m/s	-	-	4.7m/s
03:00 ☾	1024hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.1m/s	-	-	4.8m/s
04:00 ☾	1024hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	8.5m/s	7.9m/s	11m/s	4.3m/s
05:00 ☾	1025hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	6.1m/s	-	-	3.8m/s
06:00 ☾	1025hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.7m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
07:00 ☾	1025hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.4m/s	6.5m/s	8.8m/s	3.5m/s
08:00 ☾	1025hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.3m/s	-	-	3.3m/s
09:00 ☾	1025hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.5m/s	-	-	3.3m/s
10:00	1024hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.6m/s	3m/s	6.3m/s	3.1m/s
11:00	1024hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.7m/s	-	-	2.5m/s
12:00	1023hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.5m/s	-	-	3.1m/s
13:00	1021hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.1m/s	2.3m/s	5m/s	5m/s
14:00	1021hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.7m/s	-	-	6.3m/s
15:00	1020hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	6.8m/s	-	-	7.1m/s
16:00	1020hPa	9J/kg	0fraction	0.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.6m/s	4.1m/s	7.1m/s	7.1m/s
17:00	1020hPa	28J/kg	0fraction	-0.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.7m/s	-	-	6.9m/s
18:00 ☾	1020hPa	67J/kg	0fraction	-0.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	11m/s	-	-	7.4m/s
19:00 ☾	1021hPa	15J/kg	0fraction	0.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	11m/s	2.9m/s	8.4m/s	6.9m/s
20:00 ☾	1021hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	6.4m/s
21:00 ☾	1021hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	1.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.9m/s	-	-	5.4m/s
22:00 ☾	1021hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	1.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.8m/s	5.1m/s	9.4m/s	4.8m/s
23:00 ☾	1020hPa	21J/kg	0fraction	1.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.2m/s	-	-	4.6m/s
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:21 Sunset 17:30
24:00 ☾	1020hPa	19J/kg	0fraction	1.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.5m/s	-	-	4.3m/s
01:00 ☾	1020hPa	19J/kg	0fraction	2.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.3m/s	4.7m/s	10m/s	4m/s
02:00 ☾	1020hPa	11J/kg	0fraction	2.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.9m/s	-	-	3.7m/s
03:00 ☾	1019hPa	7J/kg	0fraction	3.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.8m/s	-	-	3.7m/s
04:00 ☾	1019hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.6m/s	6.6m/s	9.5m/s	3.6m/s
05:00 ☾	1019hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.3°C	7%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.8m/s	-	-	3.7m/s
06:00 ☾	1019hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.8°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	5m/s	-	-	3.8m/s
07:00 ☾	1020hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.4°C	20%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.4m/s	6.3m/s	7.4m/s	3.4m/s
08:00 ☾	1019hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.4°C	26%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.8m/s	-	-	3.5m/s
09:00 ☾	1019hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.9°C	32%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.7m/s	-	-	3.9m/s
10:00	1019hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.1°C	38%	0mm	0mm	-19dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.9m/s	8.7m/s	11m/s	3.2m/s
11:00	1018hPa	1.7J/kg	0fraction	5.2°C	50%	0.2mm	0.01mm	-20dBZ	0.25mm	22503m	4.3m/s	-	-	3.1m/s
12:00	1018hPa	3.3J/kg	0fraction	4.3°C	63%	0.4mm	0.03mm	-20dBZ	0.5mm	20871m	3.6m/s	-	-	3m/s
13:00	1018hPa	5J/kg	0fraction	3.3°C	76%	0.6mm	0.04mm	-20dBZ	0.75mm	19240m	2.9m/s	4.4m/s	13m/s	2.8m/s
14:00	1018hPa	6J/kg	0fraction	3°C	83%	0.63mm	0.03mm	-5.6dBZ	2.3mm	18595m	4.4m/s	-	-	3.2m/s
15:00	1018hPa	7J/kg	0fraction	2.8°C	90%	0.66mm	0.01mm	8.8dBZ	3.9mm	17950m	5.8m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
16:00	1019hPa	8J/kg	0fraction	2.5°C	96%	0.69mm	0mm	23dBZ	5.4mm	17305m	7.2m/s	12m/s	13m/s	3.9m/s
17:00	1018hPa	14J/kg	0.02fraction	2.6°C	91%	0.86mm	0.01mm	24dBZ	4.2mm	14530m	7.4m/s	-	-	4m/s
18:00 ☾	1018hPa	21J/kg	0.05fraction	2.7°C	85%	1mm	0.03mm	24dBZ	3mm	11755m	7.5m/s	-	-	4m/s
19:00 ☾	1018hPa	27J/kg	0.07fraction	2.8°C	79%	1.2mm	0.04mm	25dBZ	1.8mm	8980m	7.6m/s	18m/s	20m/s	4m/s
20:00 ☾	1017hPa	23J/kg	0.05fraction	2.6°C	84%	0.81mm	0.03mm	26dBZ	2.5mm	14032m	8.3m/s	-	-	4.9m/s
21:00 ☾	1017hPa	20J/kg	0.03fraction	2.4°C	88%	0.41mm	0.01mm	27dBZ	3.1mm	19083m	9m/s	-	-	5.9m/s
22:00 ☾	1017hPa	16J/kg	0.007fraction	2.2°C	92%	0.01mm	0mm	28dBZ	3.8mm	24135m	9.7m/s	5.2m/s	9.8m/s	6.8m/s
23:00 ☾	1017hPa	20J/kg	0.01fraction	1.9°C	72%	0.01mm	0.007mm	30dBZ	2.6mm	24135m	9.4m/s	-	-	6.9m/s
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:19 Sunset 17:30
24:00 ☾	1018hPa	24J/kg	0.02fraction	1.7°C	51%	0.01mm	0.01mm	31dBZ	1.4mm	24135m	9.1m/s	-	-	7m/s
01:00 ☾	1018hPa	28J/kg	0.03fraction	1.4°C	31%	0.01mm	0.02mm	33dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	8.8m/s	7.9m/s	16m/s	7m/s
02:00 ☾	1019hPa	32J/kg	0.02fraction	1.2°C	35%	0.02mm	0.07mm	25dBZ	0.27mm	24135m	8.7m/s	-	-	7.1m/s
03:00 ☾	1019hPa	37J/kg	0.01fraction	1°C	39%	0.03mm	0.13mm	17dBZ	0.42mm	24135m	8.6m/s	-	-	7.2m/s
04:00 ☾	1019hPa	41J/kg	0.002fraction	0.84°C	42%	0.04mm	0.18mm	9.1dBZ	0.56mm	24135m	8.5m/s	2.6m/s	11m/s	7.2m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 22, 2026, 6:55 PM UTC

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