Rule Fire Sky

Fire Sky Forecast for Newcastle, Australian Coast

Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia

Newcastle combines a working harbor and Nobbys Lighthouse with ocean baths, sandstone cliffs, and exposed beaches shaped by strong Pacific swell.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Fiery Red Sky Potential

Low Cloud Cover54%

Mid Cloud Cover0%

High Cloud Cover0%

Aerosol Optical Depth0.2

Sun Elevation-17.9° (Astronomical twilight)

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Sydney

Next opportunity

Excellent Fiery Red Sky at Sunrise

Newcastle

Tue, Aug 25 · 06:03–06:52 · 1h window

Medium confidence

45%

🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential78.4%

Low Cloud Cover: 6%

Mid Cloud Cover: 98%

High Cloud Cover: 5%

Sun Elevation: -4.8° (Civil twilight)

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Fire Sky conditions across Australian Coast. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Newcastle.

Explore Fire Sky conditions across Australian Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Newcastle during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 70% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 72% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 70% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

17:00 local time, shared by 13 of 25 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

June, with 11 of 25 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

1matching hours in the next 95 hoursJump to next match

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Australia/Sydney	Golden Hour Any	Fiery Red Sky Potential ≥ 65.0%	Precipitation Chance ≤ 15.0%	Visibility ≥ 8000.0m
Sat, Aug 22
05:00	✕	8%	0%	24135m
06:00	✓	16%	0%	24135m
07:00	✕	16%	0%	24135m
08:00	✕	22%	0%	24135m
09:00	✕	14%	0%	24134m
10:00	✕	9.5%	0%	24134m
11:00	✕	6.5%	0%	24135m
12:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
13:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
14:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
15:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
16:00	✓	4.7%	0%	24134m
17:00	✓	5.9%	13%	24134m
18:00	✕	12%	26%	24135m
19:00	✕	4.7%	39%	24135m
20:00	✕	4.7%	53%	24134m
21:00	✕	4.7%	67%	24134m
22:00	✕	5.1%	82%	24134m
23:00	✕	17%	81%	22168m
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	✕	16%	67%	14486m
01:00	✕	8.9%	52%	24134m
02:00	✕	12%	54%	24075m
03:00	✕	4.8%	55%	24030m
04:00	✕	18%	56%	23996m
05:00	✕	18%	50%	24134m
06:00	✓	40%	45%	24135m
07:00	✕	18%	39%	24135m
08:00	✕	6.8%	39%	24134m
09:00	✕	5.2%	39%	24134m
10:00	✕	0%	39%	24134m
11:00	✕	0%	26%	24134m
12:00	✕	0%	13%	24134m
13:00	✕	0%	0%	24134m
14:00	✕	0.2%	0%	24134m
15:00	✕	1.8%	0%	24135m
16:00	✓	0.2%	0%	24135m
17:00	✓	3.2%	0%	24135m
18:00	✕	33%	0%	24134m
19:00	✕	14%	0%	24134m
20:00	✕	10%	0%	24134m
21:00	✕	3.6%	0%	24135m
22:00	✕	18%	0%	24135m
23:00	✕	4.8%	0%	24135m
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
01:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
02:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
03:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
04:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
05:00	✕	6.5%	0%	24134m
06:00	✓	39%	0%	24134m
07:00	✕	5.3%	0%	24134m
08:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
09:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
10:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
11:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
12:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
13:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24135m
14:00	✕	4.8%	0%	24134m
15:00	✕	4.9%	0%	24134m
16:00	✓	6.5%	0%	24134m
17:00	✓	6.8%	0%	24134m
18:00	✕	17%	0%	24135m
19:00	✕	4.8%	0%	24135m
20:00	✕	4.9%	0%	24134m
21:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
22:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
23:00	✕	4.7%	0%	24134m
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	✕	4.9%	0%	24135m
01:00	✕	10%	0%	24134m
02:00	✕	21%	0%	24135m
03:00	✕	31%	0%	24134m
04:00	✕	19%	0%	24135m
05:00	✕	29%	6.7%	24134m
06:00	✓	78%	13%	24134m
07:00	✕	11%	20%	24134m
08:00	✕	35%	26%	24135m
09:00	✕	32%	32%	24134m
10:00	✕	32%	38%	24134m
11:00	✕	0%	50%	22503m
12:00	✕	0%	63%	20871m
13:00	✕	0%	76%	19240m
14:00	✕	0%	83%	18595m
15:00	✕	0%	90%	17950m
16:00	✓	0%	96%	17305m
17:00	✓	0%	91%	14530m
18:00	✕	0.2%	85%	11755m
19:00	✕	0%	79%	8980m
20:00	✕	0%	84%	14032m
21:00	✕	0%	88%	19083m
22:00	✕	0%	92%	24135m
23:00	✕	0%	72%	24135m
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	✕	0%	51%	24135m
01:00	✕	0%	31%	24135m
02:00	✕	0%	35%	24135m
03:00	✕	0%	39%	24135m

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Fiery Red Sky Potential mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Australia/Sydney	Aerosol Optical Depth (550nm)	Clear Sky Probability (Ensemble) %	Cloud Cover Uncertainty (Ensemble) %	Dust AOD (550nm)	Golden Hour	High Clouds %	Low Clouds %	Mid-Level Clouds %	RH @ 700 hPa %	Smoke AOD (550nm)	Solar Elevation °	Sunshine Duration seconds
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:23 Sunset 17:28
05:00 ☾	0.17	77%	13%	0	-	0%	54%	0%	27%	0.02	-18°	0seconds
06:00 ☾	0.18	60%	17%	0	-	0%	38%	0%	27%	0.02	-5.3°	0seconds
07:00 ☾	0.18	42%	21%	0	-	0%	38%	0%	28%	0.02	7°	0seconds
08:00 ☾	0.19	45%	20%	0	-	0%	36%	0%	29%	0.02	18°	0seconds
09:00 ☾	0.19	47%	18%	0	-	0%	36%	0%	29%	0.02	29°	0seconds
10:00	0.19	50%	17%	0	-	0%	28%	0%	30%	0.02	38°	0seconds
11:00	0.15	52%	21%	0	-	0%	65%	0%	30%	0.02	44°	3600seconds
12:00	0.14	53%	26%	0	-	0%	96%	0%	30%	0.01	46°	3600seconds
13:00	0.11	55%	30%	0	-	0%	100%	0%	30%	0.009	43°	3600seconds
14:00	0.1	58%	28%	0	-	0%	100%	0%	29%	0.007	37°	3600seconds
15:00	0.09	61%	26%	0	-	0%	76%	0%	28%	0.006	28°	3600seconds
16:00	0.09	64%	24%	0	-	0%	20%	0%	28%	0.005	17°	3600seconds
17:00	0.08	70%	23%	0	-	0%	50%	0%	27%	0.006	5.3°	0seconds
18:00 ☾	0.08	77%	21%	0	-	0%	24%	0%	26%	0.006	-7°	0seconds
19:00 ☾	0.08	83%	20%	0	-	0%	12%	0%	25%	0.006	-20°	0seconds
20:00 ☾	0.09	83%	20%	0	-	0%	12%	0%	24%	0.007	-32°	0seconds
21:00 ☾	0.09	83%	19%	0.001	-	0%	18%	0%	24%	0.007	-44°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	0.08	83%	19%	0.001	-	0%	6%	0%	23%	0.007	-56°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	0.08	83%	19%	0.001	-	0%	2%	0%	23%	0.007	-65°	0seconds
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:22 Sunset 17:29
24:00 ☾	0.08	83%	20%	0.001	-	0%	2%	0%	22%	0.006	-68°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	0.08	83%	20%	0.001	-	0%	0%	0%	21%	0.006	-64°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	0.07	86%	17%	0.001	-	0%	0%	0%	22%	0.006	-54°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	0.07	90%	15%	0.001	-	0%	2%	0%	22%	0.007	-43°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	0.08	93%	12%	0.001	-	0%	5%	0%	23%	0.007	-30°	0seconds
05:00 ☾	0.08	95%	9%	0.001	-	0%	7%	0%	24%	0.008	-18°	0seconds
06:00 ☾	0.09	98%	7%	0.001	-	0%	6%	0%	25%	0.009	-5.1°	0seconds
07:00 ☾	0.09	100%	4%	0.001	-	0%	5%	0%	25%	0.01	7.2°	0seconds
08:00 ☾	0.1	100%	3%	0.001	-	0%	0%	0%	24%	0.01	19°	0seconds
09:00 ☾	0.1	100%	3%	0.001	-	0%	0%	0%	23%	0.01	29°	0seconds
10:00	0.09	100%	2%	0.001	-	0%	0%	0%	22%	0.01	38°	3600seconds
11:00	-	99%	4%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	21%	-	44°	3600seconds
12:00	-	99%	5%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	20%	-	46°	3600seconds
13:00	-	98%	7%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	19%	-	43°	3600seconds
14:00	-	98%	7%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	19%	-	37°	3600seconds
15:00	-	99%	6%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	18%	-	28°	3600seconds
16:00	-	99%	6%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	17%	-	17°	3600seconds
17:00	-	96%	11%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	21%	-	5.5°	0seconds
18:00 ☾	-	92%	15%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	25%	-	-6.9°	0seconds
19:00 ☾	-	89%	20%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	29%	-	-19°	0seconds
20:00 ☾	-	89%	19%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	33%	-	-32°	0seconds
21:00 ☾	-	90%	18%	-	-	0%	0%	0%	37%	-	-44°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	-	90%	17%	-	-	0%	1%	0%	41%	-	-56°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	-	89%	20%	-	-	0%	2%	0%	41%	-	-65°	0seconds
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:21 Sunset 17:30
24:00 ☾	-	88%	22%	-	-	0%	4%	0%	41%	-	-68°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	-	87%	25%	-	-	5%	4%	0%	40%	-	-63°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	-	83%	25%	-	-	100%	5%	0%	37%	-	-54°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	-	79%	25%	-	-	91%	5%	0%	34%	-	-42°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	-	75%	25%	-	-	46%	5%	0%	32%	-	-30°	0seconds
05:00 ☾	-	60%	27%	-	-	100%	5%	100%	28%	-	-17°	0seconds
06:00 ☾	-	45%	30%	-	-	5%	6%	98%	25%	-	-4.8°	0seconds
07:00 ☾	-	30%	32%	-	-	5%	1%	0%	21%	-	7.5°	0seconds
08:00 ☾	-	25%	30%	-	-	100%	0%	5%	40%	-	19°	0seconds
09:00 ☾	-	20%	28%	-	-	60%	0%	0%	58%	-	30°	0seconds
10:00	-	15%	26%	-	-	100%	0%	68%	77%	-	38°	3600seconds
11:00	-	13%	27%	-	-	100%	33%	78%	82%	-	44°	2400seconds
12:00	-	12%	27%	-	-	100%	67%	88%	86%	-	46°	1200seconds
13:00	-	10%	28%	-	-	100%	100%	98%	91%	-	44°	0seconds
14:00	-	7%	25%	-	-	100%	100%	99%	94%	-	37°	0seconds
15:00	-	5%	22%	-	-	100%	100%	99%	97%	-	28°	0seconds
16:00	-	2%	19%	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	-	17°	0seconds
17:00	-	1%	13%	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	-	5.6°	0seconds
18:00 ☾	-	1%	8%	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	-	-6.8°	0seconds
19:00 ☾	-	0%	2%	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	-	-19°	0seconds
20:00 ☾	-	0%	2%	-	-	100%	100%	100%	99%	-	-32°	0seconds
21:00 ☾	-	0%	1%	-	-	100%	100%	100%	99%	-	-44°	0seconds
22:00 ☾	-	0%	1%	-	-	100%	100%	100%	98%	-	-55°	0seconds
23:00 ☾	-	0%	2%	-	-	67%	100%	100%	99%	-	-64°	0seconds
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:19 Sunset 17:30
24:00 ☾	-	0%	3%	-	-	33%	100%	100%	99%	-	-68°	0seconds
01:00 ☾	-	0%	4%	-	-	0%	99%	100%	99%	-	-63°	0seconds
02:00 ☾	-	1%	8%	-	-	0%	99%	100%	99%	-	-54°	0seconds
03:00 ☾	-	1%	12%	-	-	0%	98%	100%	99%	-	-42°	0seconds
04:00 ☾	-	2%	16%	-	-	0%	98%	100%	98%	-	-30°	0seconds

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 22, 2026, 6:55 PM UTC

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