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Rule Fire Sky

Fire Sky Forecast for Newcastle, Australian Coast

Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia

Newcastle combines a working harbor and Nobbys Lighthouse with ocean baths, sandstone cliffs, and exposed beaches shaped by strong Pacific swell.

1 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.

Hourly forecast scores

Forecast valid from Oct 7, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC (one hour; not an observation)
Fiery Red Sky Potential
0%
Low Cloud Cover71%
Mid Cloud Cover40%
High Cloud Cover0%
Aerosol Optical Depth0.2
Sun Elevation43.9°

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Sydney
fire-sky weather icon
First upcoming window
Good Fiery Red Sky at Sunset
Newcastle
Wed, Oct 21 · 19:00–19:25 · 1h window
Low confidence
26%
🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential66.1%
Low Cloud Cover: 5%
Mid Cloud Cover: 23%
High Cloud Cover: 29%
Sun Elevation: 1.5° (Golden hour)

71-hour requirements breakdown

When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 71-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Australia/Sydney.

Requirements breakdown is temporarily unavailable or expired. This does not mean no opportunities.

Supporting forecast inputs

Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.

Forecast time (Australia/Sydney)Aerosol Optical Depth (550nm)Clear Sky Probability (Ensemble)Cloud Cover Uncertainty (Ensemble)Dust AOD (550nm)Golden HourHigh CloudsLow CloudsMid-Level CloudsRH @ 700 hPaSmoke AOD (550nm)Solar ElevationSunshine Duration
Thu, Oct 8, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
0.160%12%0.001Unavailable0%71%40%2.6%0.0144°3600seconds
0.150%12%0.001Unavailable0%5%30%2.7%0.0154°3600seconds
0.1416%15%0.001Unavailable0%12%21%3.2%0.0161°3600seconds
0.1431%17%0.001Unavailable0%37%34%3.6%0.0163°3600seconds
0.1547%20%0.001Unavailable0%42%39%4.1%0.0157°3600seconds
0.1458%18%0.001Unavailable0%31%22%4.3%0.0148°3600seconds
0.1368%15%0.001Unavailable0%19%8%4.4%0.0136°3600seconds
0.1479%13%0.001Unavailable0%4%1%4.6%0.0124°3600seconds
0.1486%9%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%4.1%0.0112°3600seconds
Night0.1393%5%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%3.7%0.01-0.47°3358seconds
Night0.12100%1%0.001Unavailable0%1%0%3.2%0.01-13°0seconds
Night0.12100%1%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%3.4%0.01-25°0seconds
Night0.13100%0%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%3.5%0.01-36°0seconds
Night0.13100%0%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%3.7%0.01-44°0seconds
Fri, Oct 9, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
Night0.1399%3%0.001Unavailable0%5%0%4.9%0.01-50°0seconds
Night0.1399%5%0.001Unavailable0%9%0%6%0.01-51°0seconds
Night0.1398%8%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%7.2%0.02-47°0seconds
Night0.1496%10%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%6.2%0.02-39°0seconds
Night0.1393%13%0.001Unavailable0%2%0%5.2%0.02-29°0seconds
Night0.1291%15%0.001Unavailable0%6%0%4.2%0.02-17°0seconds
Night0.1190%15%0.001Unavailable0%15%0%4.9%0.01-5°0seconds
0.1190%15%0.001Unavailable0%30%0%5.7%0.017.6°1682seconds
0.189%15%0.001Unavailable0%16%0%6.4%0.0120°3600seconds
0.0991%14%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%6.7%0.0132°3600seconds
0.193%12%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%6.9%0.0144°3600seconds
0.0995%11%0.001Unavailable0%1%0%7.2%0.0155°3600seconds
Unavailable96%10%UnavailableUnavailable0%1%0%7%Unavailable62°3600seconds
Unavailable98%8%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%0%6.8%Unavailable63°3600seconds
Unavailable99%7%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%0%6.6%Unavailable58°3600seconds
Unavailable99%7%UnavailableUnavailable12%0%0%9.4%Unavailable48°3600seconds
Unavailable98%8%UnavailableUnavailable32%0%0%12%Unavailable37°3600seconds
Unavailable98%8%UnavailableUnavailable8%0%1%15%Unavailable24°3600seconds
Unavailable98%8%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%0%41%Unavailable12°3600seconds
Unavailable97%9%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%1%67%Unavailable-0.23°3401seconds
NightUnavailable97%9%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%0%92%Unavailable-13°0seconds
NightUnavailable91%11%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%0%91%Unavailable-25°0seconds
NightUnavailable85%14%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%0%90%Unavailable-35°0seconds
NightUnavailable79%16%UnavailableUnavailable2%0%1%89%Unavailable-44°0seconds
Sat, Oct 10, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
NightUnavailable68%19%UnavailableUnavailable27%0%1%89%Unavailable-50°0seconds
NightUnavailable58%22%UnavailableUnavailable60%0%1%88%Unavailable-50°0seconds
NightUnavailable47%25%UnavailableUnavailable93%0%12%88%Unavailable-46°0seconds
NightUnavailable38%24%UnavailableUnavailable96%0%71%91%Unavailable-38°0seconds
NightUnavailable28%23%UnavailableUnavailable79%0%26%95%Unavailable-28°0seconds
NightUnavailable19%22%UnavailableUnavailable98%0%12%98%Unavailable-17°0seconds
NightUnavailable13%19%UnavailableUnavailable100%0%55%99%Unavailable-4.7°0seconds
Unavailable6%16%UnavailableUnavailable97%0%92%99%Unavailable7.8°0seconds
Unavailable0%13%UnavailableUnavailable100%0%80%100%Unavailable20°0seconds
Unavailable0%12%UnavailableUnavailable100%0%100%90%Unavailable33°0seconds
Unavailable0%12%UnavailableUnavailable99%0%93%80%Unavailable45°0seconds
Unavailable0%11%UnavailableUnavailable0%2%9%71%Unavailable55°0seconds
Unavailable11%20%UnavailableUnavailable1%1%18%79%Unavailable62°3600seconds
Unavailable22%29%UnavailableUnavailable1%16%6%87%Unavailable63°3600seconds
Unavailable33%38%UnavailableUnavailable0%1%9%95%Unavailable58°3600seconds
Unavailable32%34%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%15%84%Unavailable48°3600seconds
Unavailable31%31%UnavailableUnavailable2%0%27%72%Unavailable37°3600seconds
Unavailable30%27%UnavailableUnavailable6%0%20%60%Unavailable25°3600seconds
Unavailable39%28%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%11%67%Unavailable12°3600seconds
Unavailable48%30%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%20%73%Unavailable0.02°3445seconds
NightUnavailable57%31%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%20%80%Unavailable-13°0seconds
NightUnavailable58%29%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%1%86%Unavailable-24°0seconds
NightUnavailable59%28%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%0%92%Unavailable-35°0seconds
NightUnavailable60%26%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%4%98%Unavailable-44°0seconds
Sun, Oct 11, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
NightUnavailable68%25%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%0%87%Unavailable-49°0seconds
NightUnavailable76%23%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%0%77%Unavailable-50°0seconds
NightUnavailable84%22%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%0%66%Unavailable-46°0seconds
NightUnavailable86%20%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%0%59%Unavailable-38°0seconds
NightUnavailable87%18%UnavailableUnavailable0%1%0%51%Unavailable-28°0seconds
NightUnavailable89%16%UnavailableUnavailable0%2%0%44%Unavailable-17°0seconds
NightUnavailable87%18%UnavailableUnavailable0%5%0%40%Unavailable-4.5°0seconds
Unavailable86%21%UnavailableUnavailable0%2%0%36%Unavailable8.1°1888seconds
Unavailable84%23%UnavailableUnavailable0%13%2%33%Unavailable21°3600seconds
Unavailable82%23%UnavailableUnavailable0%37%1%29%Unavailable33°3600seconds

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Fire Sky conditions across Australian Coast. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Newcastle.

Explore Fire Sky conditions across Australian Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Newcastle during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days
13
recorded matching windows · 78% average confidence
Last 90 days
22
recorded matching windows · 76% average confidence
Last 365 days
41
recorded matching windows · 73% average confidence
Most frequent recorded start hour

17:00 local time, shared by 13 of 41 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

September, with 12 of 41 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

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