Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Melbourne, Australian Coast

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Melbourne combines the Yarra's bridges and skyline with Port Phillip beaches, while nearby Brighton bathing boxes add color and repetition.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

CAPE0

Lifted Index11.5°C

Wind Gusts1.7m/s

Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne

No opportunities in the next 14 days

See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.

Most common blockers (85-hour forecast)

Storm Intensity100% of hours

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Melbourne.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Melbourne during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 51% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 51% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 51% average confidence

Only 9 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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85-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 85-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

0matching hours in the next 85 hours

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Australia/Melbourne	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Sat, Aug 22
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%
21:00	0%
22:00	0%
23:00	0%
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	0%
01:00	0%
02:00	0%
03:00	0%
04:00	0%
05:00	0%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%
21:00	0%
22:00	0%
23:00	0%
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	0%
01:00	0%
02:00	0%
03:00	0%
04:00	0%
05:00	0%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%
21:00	18%
22:00	26%
23:00	18%
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	18%
01:00	27%
02:00	17%
03:00	15%
04:00	27%
05:00	20%
06:00	22%
07:00	26%
08:00	19%
09:00	18%
10:00	22%
11:00	17%
12:00	16%
13:00	17%
14:00	14%
15:00	14%
16:00	24%
17:00	16%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%
21:00	0%
22:00	0%
23:00	0%
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	7%
01:00	11%
02:00	6%
03:00	0%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Australia/Melbourne	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:56 Sunset 17:50
05:00 ☾	1017hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	12°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	1.7m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
06:00 ☾	1017hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	12°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.7m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
07:00 ☾	1018hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	12°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	1.8m/s	2.5m/s	8.6m/s	1.5m/s
08:00 ☾	1018hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	12°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	2.3m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
09:00 ☾	1018hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	11°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	2.4m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
10:00	1017hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	11°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	2.6m/s	3.7m/s	7m/s	1.4m/s
11:00	1016hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	10°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.4m/s	-	-	1.8m/s
12:00	1016hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4m/s	-	-	2.2m/s
13:00	1015hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.8m/s	7.1m/s	6.9m/s	2.8m/s
14:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.2m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
15:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5.5m/s	-	-	4.1m/s
16:00	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5.8m/s	5.8m/s	5m/s	4.2m/s
17:00	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.6m/s	-	-	3.9m/s
18:00 ☾	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.4m/s	-	-	3.4m/s
19:00 ☾	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.6m/s	5.9m/s	4.1m/s	3.1m/s
20:00 ☾	1015hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.2m/s	-	-	2.9m/s
21:00 ☾	1015hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.8m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
22:00 ☾	1015hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.6m/s	6.4m/s	5.9m/s	2.7m/s
23:00 ☾	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	7m/s	-	-	2.3m/s
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:55 Sunset 17:50
24:00 ☾	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	7.5m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
01:00 ☾	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	9.3m/s	5.8m/s	11m/s	3.2m/s
02:00 ☾	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	8.8m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
03:00 ☾	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	10m/s	-	-	3.2m/s
04:00 ☾	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	10m/s	5.2m/s	15m/s	3.4m/s
05:00 ☾	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.3m/s	-	-	3.1m/s
06:00 ☾	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
07:00 ☾	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	6.3m/s	12m/s	3.6m/s
08:00 ☾	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
09:00 ☾	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	4.5m/s
10:00	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.9m/s	4.7m/s	11m/s	4.9m/s
11:00	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	8.4°C	7%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.4m/s	-	-	5.1m/s
12:00	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	8.3°C	15%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	7.4m/s	-	-	5.1m/s
13:00	1011hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.6°C	22%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.9m/s	7.6m/s	15m/s	5m/s
14:00	1010hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.2°C	20%	0mm	0mm	-9.6dBZ	0mm	24134m	6.6m/s	-	-	4.7m/s
15:00	1010hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.7°C	19%	0mm	0mm	0.37dBZ	0mm	24134m	6.2m/s	-	-	4.4m/s
16:00	1009hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6°C	17%	0mm	0mm	10dBZ	0mm	24134m	6m/s	7.8m/s	18m/s	3.9m/s
17:00	1009hPa	3J/kg	0fraction	6.1°C	26%	0mm	0mm	13dBZ	0mm	24134m	7.1m/s	-	-	3.3m/s
18:00 ☾	1010hPa	22J/kg	0fraction	6.5°C	35%	0mm	0mm	15dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.6m/s	-	-	2.4m/s
19:00 ☾	1010hPa	35J/kg	0fraction	6.4°C	44%	0mm	0.02mm	18dBZ	0mm	24135m	7m/s	6.4m/s	21m/s	2.1m/s
20:00 ☾	1010hPa	63J/kg	0.33fraction	6.6°C	57%	0mm	0.07mm	14dBZ	0.06mm	23428m	6.5m/s	-	-	2.1m/s
21:00 ☾	1010hPa	66J/kg	0.67fraction	6.7°C	69%	0mm	0.16mm	11dBZ	0.13mm	23158m	7.8m/s	-	-	2.4m/s
22:00 ☾	1009hPa	86J/kg	1fraction	5.8°C	81%	0mm	0.03mm	7.2dBZ	0.19mm	24134m	9.6m/s	8.5m/s	19m/s	2.7m/s
23:00 ☾	1008hPa	66J/kg	0.67fraction	5.3°C	86%	0mm	0mm	14dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.6m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:53 Sunset 17:51
24:00 ☾	1008hPa	70J/kg	0.33fraction	3.9°C	90%	0mm	0mm	21dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.9m/s	-	-	2.4m/s
01:00 ☾	1007hPa	41J/kg	0fraction	4.5°C	95%	0mm	0mm	27dBZ	0mm	24134m	6.5m/s	15m/s	20m/s	2.5m/s
02:00 ☾	1006hPa	30J/kg	0fraction	4.7°C	96%	0mm	0mm	27dBZ	0mm	24135m	4.8m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
03:00 ☾	1005hPa	22J/kg	0fraction	3.8°C	98%	0.02mm	0mm	28dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.5m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
04:00 ☾	1005hPa	17J/kg	0fraction	4°C	99%	0.17mm	0mm	28dBZ	0.13mm	24135m	2.4m/s	14m/s	20m/s	1.1m/s
05:00 ☾	1005hPa	5J/kg	0fraction	2.6°C	96%	0.07mm	0mm	26dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	3.3m/s	-	-	1.2m/s
06:00 ☾	1005hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	2.8°C	93%	0.07mm	0mm	25dBZ	0.31mm	24134m	5.4m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
07:00 ☾	1005hPa	1J/kg	0fraction	2.5°C	90%	0mm	0mm	23dBZ	0.38mm	24134m	4.6m/s	12m/s	12m/s	1.4m/s
08:00 ☾	1005hPa	32J/kg	0fraction	1.1°C	93%	0mm	0.11mm	21dBZ	0.38mm	24135m	5.5m/s	-	-	1.2m/s
09:00 ☾	1005hPa	24J/kg	0fraction	1°C	95%	0mm	0.01mm	18dBZ	0.44mm	24134m	5.7m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
10:00	1005hPa	24J/kg	0fraction	0.6°C	98%	0mm	0mm	16dBZ	0.5mm	24134m	5.8m/s	5.6m/s	6.4m/s	1.6m/s
11:00	1008hPa	24J/kg	0.23fraction	1.7°C	87%	0.01mm	0mm	14dBZ	0.54mm	24134m	5.4m/s	-	-	2.1m/s
12:00	1012hPa	23J/kg	0.46fraction	2.8°C	76%	0.02mm	0mm	13dBZ	0.58mm	24134m	5m/s	-	-	2.5m/s
13:00	1015hPa	23J/kg	0.69fraction	3.9°C	65%	0.03mm	0mm	11dBZ	0.63mm	24135m	4.5m/s	9.3m/s	10m/s	3m/s
14:00	1016hPa	19J/kg	0.46fraction	4.6°C	68%	0.04mm	0.003mm	18dBZ	0.73mm	23758m	5.7m/s	-	-	3.8m/s
15:00	1017hPa	15J/kg	0.23fraction	5.4°C	70%	0.06mm	0.007mm	26dBZ	0.83mm	23382m	6.8m/s	-	-	4.7m/s
16:00	1018hPa	11J/kg	0.002fraction	6.1°C	73%	0.07mm	0.01mm	33dBZ	0.94mm	23005m	7.9m/s	11m/s	12m/s	5.5m/s
17:00	1019hPa	9.3J/kg	0.04fraction	7.3°C	62%	0.05mm	0.01mm	26dBZ	0.65mm	23382m	7.9m/s	-	-	5.8m/s
18:00 ☾	1019hPa	7.7J/kg	0.08fraction	8.5°C	50%	0.03mm	0.01mm	18dBZ	0.35mm	23758m	7.8m/s	-	-	6m/s
19:00 ☾	1020hPa	6J/kg	0.12fraction	9.7°C	39%	0.01mm	0.01mm	11dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	7.7m/s	2.8m/s	5.8m/s	6.3m/s
20:00 ☾	1020hPa	5.3J/kg	0.13fraction	10°C	45%	0.007mm	0.007mm	12dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	7.9m/s	-	-	6.2m/s
21:00 ☾	1020hPa	4.7J/kg	0.15fraction	11°C	50%	0.003mm	0.003mm	13dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	8m/s	-	-	6.1m/s
22:00 ☾	1021hPa	4J/kg	0.16fraction	11°C	56%	0mm	0mm	15dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	8.1m/s	4.9m/s	6.2m/s	6m/s
23:00 ☾	1021hPa	4J/kg	0.32fraction	11°C	50%	0mm	0mm	3.3dBZ	0.04mm	24135m	7.6m/s	-	-	5.6m/s
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:52 Sunset 17:52
24:00 ☾	1022hPa	4J/kg	0.48fraction	11°C	45%	0mm	0mm	-8.4dBZ	0.02mm	24135m	7.1m/s	-	-	5.2m/s
01:00 ☾	1022hPa	4J/kg	0.64fraction	11°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.5m/s	8.6m/s	10m/s	4.8m/s
02:00 ☾	1023hPa	5.3J/kg	0.52fraction	11°C	33%	0.003mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.5m/s	-	-	4.8m/s
03:00 ☾	1023hPa	6.7J/kg	0.4fraction	11°C	28%	0.007mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.5m/s	-	-	4.9m/s
04:00 ☾	1024hPa	8J/kg	0.28fraction	11°C	22%	0.01mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.5m/s	8.7m/s	11m/s	4.9m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 22, 2026, 6:55 PM UTC

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