Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Melbourne, Australian Coast

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Melbourne combines the Yarra's bridges and skyline with Port Phillip beaches, while nearby Brighton bathing boxes add color and repetition.

3 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.

Hourly forecast scores

Forecast valid from Oct 7, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC (one hour; not an observation)

Storm Intensity

CAPE0

Lifted Index13.6°C

Wind Gusts6.1m/s

Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne

First upcoming window

Weak Storm

Melbourne

Mon, Oct 12 · 08:00–09:00 · 1h window

Low confidence

37%

⛈️Storm Intensity50.8%

CAPE: 0

Lifted Index: 7.2°C

Wind Gusts: 14.9m/s

Precipitation: 2.0mm

Weak Storm

Melbourne

Mon, Oct 12 · 11:00–12:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:40.1%

Low

Weak Storm

Melbourne

Mon, Oct 12 · 14:00–15:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:47.6%

Low

71-hour requirements breakdown

When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 71-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Australia/Melbourne.

Requirements breakdown is temporarily unavailable or expired. This does not mean no opportunities.

Supporting forecast inputs

Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.

Forecast time (Australia/Melbourne)	Air Pressure	CAPE	Convective Precip Fraction	Lifted Index	Precipitation Chance	Rainfall	Showers	Simulated Reflectivity	Total Precipitation	Visibility	Wind Gusts	Wind Shear 0-3 km	Wind Shear 0-6 km	Wind Speed
Thu, Oct 8, 2026Sunrise 06:45 · Sunset 19:30
10:00	1020hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	14°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51740m	6.1m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.4m/s
11:00	1020hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	12°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	55480m	11m/s	8.6m/s	4.2m/s	4.5m/s
12:00	1019hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	11°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59740m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.2m/s
13:00	1018hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	10°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59740m	13m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.5m/s
14:00	1017hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	9.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59720m	13m/s	4.7m/s	2.9m/s	5m/s
15:00	1015hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	9.2°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59720m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.7m/s
16:00	1015hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	8.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59720m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.4m/s
17:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59720m	11m/s	4.9m/s	6.2m/s	4.4m/s
18:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59720m	10m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.7m/s
19:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	55440m	8.3m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3m/s
20:00 Night	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	9.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51700m	6.4m/s	4.6m/s	6.1m/s	2.7m/s
21:00 Night	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	11°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51700m	5.4m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.4m/s
22:00 Night	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	12°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	47500m	4.9m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.5m/s
23:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	13°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	47500m	5.2m/s	4.6m/s	6.2m/s	2.6m/s
Fri, Oct 9, 2026Sunrise 06:44 · Sunset 19:31
24:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	13°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	47500m	5.4m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.7m/s
01:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	14°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	47500m	5.5m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.6m/s
02:00 Night	1011hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	14°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	47480m	5.2m/s	5.7m/s	9.2m/s	2.5m/s
03:00 Night	1010hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	14°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	47480m	5.4m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.8m/s
04:00 Night	1010hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	15°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51660m	6m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3m/s
05:00 Night	1009hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	15°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51660m	6m/s	4.9m/s	8.5m/s	3m/s
06:00 Night	1009hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	15°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51660m	6.6m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.3m/s
07:00	1009hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	17°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51640m	6.9m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.5m/s
08:00	1009hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	15°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51640m	8.3m/s	5.3m/s	9.8m/s	4m/s
09:00	1008hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	13°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	55380m	9m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.5m/s
10:00	1008hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	11°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	55380m	9.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.4m/s
11:00	1007hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	8.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59640m	13m/s	6.1m/s	9.9m/s	5.6m/s
12:00	1005hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59640m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6.1m/s
13:00	1004hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59640m	15m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6.3m/s
14:00	1003hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59620m	15m/s	6.3m/s	8.7m/s	6.2m/s
15:00	1002hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59620m	15m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	6.1m/s
16:00	1002hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59620m	14m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.7m/s
17:00	1001hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59620m	13m/s	11m/s	6m/s	5.5m/s
18:00	1000hPa	50J/kg	0fraction	4.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-19dBZ	0mm	55340m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5m/s
19:00	1000hPa	50J/kg	0fraction	4.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-18dBZ	0mm	55340m	11m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.2m/s
20:00 Night	1000hPa	50J/kg	0fraction	6.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-16dBZ	0mm	55060m	9.5m/s	14m/s	14m/s	4.4m/s
21:00 Night	999hPa	30J/kg	0fraction	7.1°C	2%	0mm	0mm	-6.2dBZ	0mm	54920m	9.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.5m/s
22:00 Night	999hPa	30J/kg	0fraction	6.2°C	4%	0mm	0mm	4dBZ	0mm	15580m	9.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4m/s
23:00 Night	998hPa	40J/kg	0fraction	5.2°C	8%	0mm	0mm	14dBZ	0mm	11980m	8.4m/s	9.3m/s	15m/s	3.2m/s
Sat, Oct 10, 2026Sunrise 06:42 · Sunset 19:32
24:00 Night	999hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.4°C	13%	0mm	0mm	19dBZ	0mm	10280m	11m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	5.1m/s
01:00 Night	999hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.7°C	18%	0mm	0mm	24dBZ	0mm	11600m	12m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.6m/s
02:00 Night	999hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	3.6°C	25%	0mm	0mm	29dBZ	0mm	14900m	7.9m/s	16m/s	12m/s	3.6m/s
03:00 Night	999hPa	0J/kg	0.33fraction	1.9°C	35%	0mm	0mm	22dBZ	0mm	47380m	8.2m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.7m/s
04:00 Night	999hPa	10J/kg	0.67fraction	2.2°C	46%	0mm	0.2mm	15dBZ	0.2mm	47360m	7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.9m/s
05:00 Night	1000hPa	0J/kg	1fraction	2.5°C	49%	0mm	0mm	7.6dBZ	0mm	47360m	6.7m/s	9.6m/s	9m/s	3.1m/s
06:00 Night	1001hPa	20J/kg	0.67fraction	2.8°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-1.6dBZ	0mm	36660m	6.5m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3m/s
07:00	1002hPa	30J/kg	0.34fraction	4.1°C	21%	0mm	0mm	-11dBZ	0mm	43920m	6.4m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.5m/s
08:00	1004hPa	40J/kg	0.007fraction	5.9°C	8%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	22840m	6.2m/s	10m/s	13m/s	2.7m/s
09:00	1005hPa	20J/kg	0fraction	7.3°C	5%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51520m	8.6m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.6m/s
10:00	1005hPa	30J/kg	0fraction	9.5°C	7%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51520m	9.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.9m/s
11:00	1006hPa	20J/kg	0fraction	11°C	8%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	55260m	10m/s	11m/s	16m/s	3.9m/s
12:00	1006hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	11°C	7%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59540m	11m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.2m/s
13:00	1007hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	11°C	5%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	70520m	11m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.4m/s
14:00	1007hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	10°C	4%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	70520m	11m/s	9.2m/s	13m/s	4.3m/s
15:00	1007hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	9.4°C	3%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59520m	11m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.4m/s
16:00	1007hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	8.9°C	1%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	70500m	11m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	4.4m/s
17:00	1008hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	9.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	70500m	11m/s	7.9m/s	13m/s	4.1m/s
18:00	1008hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	9.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59520m	9.9m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	3.6m/s
19:00	1009hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	10°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	59500m	8.2m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.4m/s
20:00 Night	1010hPa	20J/kg	0fraction	12°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	55220m	5.5m/s	5.9m/s	8m/s	1.7m/s
21:00 Night	1012hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	13°C	1%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	55220m	3.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.8m/s
22:00 Night	1012hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	14°C	3%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51460m	4.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.3m/s
23:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	15°C	4%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51460m	5m/s	7.9m/s	15m/s	2.4m/s
Sun, Oct 11, 2026Sunrise 06:41 · Sunset 19:33
24:00 Night	1013hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	15°C	3%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51460m	5.2m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	2.3m/s
01:00 Night	1013hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	15°C	1%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	51460m	4.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.9m/s
02:00 Night	1013hPa	10J/kg	0fraction	16°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	47260m	4m/s	10m/s	13m/s	1.5m/s
03:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	16°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	47260m	3.1m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.3m/s
04:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	16°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	47260m	2.8m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.4m/s
05:00 Night	1013hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	16°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	42120m	2.9m/s	12m/s	15m/s	1.4m/s
06:00 Night	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	16°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	42100m	3.2m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.6m/s
07:00	1014hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	15°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	42100m	4m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.9m/s
08:00	1015hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	13°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	42100m	5.1m/s	13m/s	17m/s	2.5m/s
09:00	1015hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	11°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	47240m	5.7m/s	Unavailable	Unavailable	1.9m/s

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Melbourne.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Melbourne during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 56% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 53% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 53% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

16:00 local time, shared by 4 of 19 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

August, with 9 of 19 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

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