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Rule Storm Chaser

Melbourne - Storm Chaser - Australian Coast

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Dramatic storm conditions — from atmospheric builds to active thunderstorms

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Storm Chaser opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Storm Intensity · ≥ 55.0% Cloud Drama Score · ≥ 55.0% CAPE · ≥ 1200.0J/kg Lifted Index · ≤ -2.0°C

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Storm Intensity 100% failing
CAPE 100% failing
Cloud Drama Score 78% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Cloud Cover100%
Wind Gusts5.0m/s
Precipitation Chance95%
Air Pressure1012.3hPa
CAPE46
Lifted Index1.3°C
Wind Gusts5.0m/s
Precipitation1.7mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the dramatic storm systems that bring lightning, massive swells, and atmospheric drama to Australia's eastern coastline. We monitor low-pressure systems, lightning activity, and wave heights to predict when Southern Ocean storms will create spectacular—but safe—photography conditions.

Australia's east coast faces the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean, which generate powerful weather systems year-round. These storms bring towering seas that crash against coastal cliffs, creating explosions of spray. Lightning storms, particularly during summer, offer opportunities for long-exposure captures over harbors and beaches. Winter storms bring the largest swells and most dramatic cloud formations.

What makes Australian coastal storms exceptional:

  • Southern Ocean swells - Winter low-pressure systems generate massive groundswells that pound Victoria and southern NSW
  • Wollongong sea cliffs - Dramatic headlands where storm waves explode against cliffs in spectacular displays
  • Byron Bay lightning - Subtropical storms bring frequent lightning over the iconic lighthouse and beaches
  • Sydney storm drama - The harbour becomes wild during southerly busters and east coast lows

Best storm photography occurs during winter (June-August) when Southern Ocean low-pressure systems bring large swells and dramatic skies. Summer thunderstorms (November-February) offer lightning opportunities over coastal icons. East coast lows—intense low-pressure systems—create the most extreme conditions but pose significant safety risks. Our forecast helps identify approaching storms so you can position safely with proper conditions. Never stand on exposed rocks during large swells.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
OR logic: one branch per group is enough
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Australia/Melbourne
Storm Intensity
≥ 55.0%
Cloud Drama Score
≥ 55.0%
CAPE
OR1·B1
≥ 1200.0J/kg
Lifted Index
OR1·B2
≤ -2.0°C
Visibility
≥ 2500.0m
Wind Gusts
≤ 22.0m/s
Sat, May 23
23:000%4.9%0J/kg8.3°C24134m3.9m/s
Sun, May 24
24:000%11%0J/kg8.9°C24135m4.9m/s
01:000%3.6%0J/kg7.5°C24134m3.5m/s
02:000%5.3%0J/kg7.1°C24135m2.2m/s
03:000%8.7%0J/kg7.2°C24135m1.9m/s
04:000%4.5%0J/kg7.1°C24134m1.9m/s
05:000%7.7%0J/kg6.8°C24134m2.4m/s
06:000%8.2%0J/kg6.3°C24134m2.5m/s
07:000%44%1J/kg4.9°C24135m3m/s
08:000%55%11J/kg4.8°C24135m3m/s
09:000%51%13J/kg5.2°C24135m3m/s
10:000%55%17J/kg3.8°C24135m3.1m/s
11:000%49%24J/kg3°C24135m6.8m/s
12:000%49%23J/kg3.5°C24135m9.6m/s
13:000%48%12J/kg3.9°C24135m8.9m/s
14:000%46%78J/kg3.5°C24134m7.8m/s
15:000%55%40J/kg3.2°C14809m7.3m/s
16:000%53%23J/kg3.4°C24134m5.7m/s
17:000%80%15J/kg3.9°C23549m4.9m/s
18:000%54%15J/kg2.7°C22996m4.1m/s
19:000%0%4J/kg3.7°C24134m4.2m/s
20:000%0.4%7J/kg3.3°C24135m6.1m/s
21:000%0%41J/kg3.2°C16014m6.8m/s
22:0012%0%26J/kg1.8°C10246m4m/s
23:0014%1%46J/kg1.3°C4883m5m/s
Mon, May 25
24:000%0%47J/kg1.7°C5010m2.3m/s
01:000%0%38J/kg1.2°C22770m2.7m/s
02:000%0.6%49J/kg0.8°C13850m0.91m/s
03:000%0.8%51J/kg0.8°C21689m1.2m/s
04:000%0.7%70J/kg1°C24134m2.9m/s
05:000%9.1%59J/kg1.6°C14556m1.3m/s
06:000%15%44J/kg2.6°C24134m0.62m/s
07:000%100%32J/kg3.1°C24135m0.31m/s
08:000%60%35J/kg3°C24134m0.3m/s
09:000%42%32J/kg3.6°C24135m0.61m/s
10:000%46%34J/kg3.8°C24135m0.8m/s
11:000%39%21J/kg4.2°C24135m1m/s
12:000%36%40J/kg3.9°C24135m1.2m/s
13:000%12%72J/kg3.3°C24135m1.4m/s
14:000%36%82J/kg3°C24134m1.9m/s
15:000%49%107J/kg2.8°C24134m2.6m/s
16:000%52%93J/kg2.7°C24134m4.2m/s
17:000%56%57J/kg3.3°C24135m4.6m/s
18:000%46%39J/kg3.6°C24134m3.8m/s
19:000%1.1%26J/kg3.7°C24135m1.3m/s
20:000%2%10J/kg3.4°C24135m0.9m/s
21:000%3.9%2J/kg3.4°C24134m0.5m/s
22:000%6.1%0J/kg3.7°C24135m0.6m/s
23:000%6.2%1J/kg3.9°C24134m0.52m/s
Tue, May 26
24:000%4.8%0J/kg3.6°C24134m0.53m/s
01:000%6.2%0J/kg2.8°C24134m0.61m/s
02:000%11%2J/kg2.7°C24134m0.51m/s
03:000%9.3%2J/kg2°C24135m0.31m/s
04:000%7.9%0J/kg1.9°C24134m0.5m/s
05:000%4.7%0J/kg1.9°C24135m0.61m/s
06:000%6.1%0J/kg1.8°C24134m0.41m/s
07:000%75%0J/kg1.6°C24135m0.81m/s
08:000%70%0J/kg1.4°C24134m0.51m/s
09:000%43%2J/kg1.6°C24134m0.72m/s
10:000%98%2J/kg1.9°C24135m1.6m/s
11:000%21%0J/kg2.5°C24134m4.3m/s
12:000%24%0J/kg2.3°C24135m4.8m/s
13:000%51%25J/kg0.7°C24134m4.3m/s
14:000%81%19J/kg1.5°C24134m5m/s
15:000%53%54J/kg1°C24134m4.5m/s
16:000%94%44J/kg0.5°C24135m6.8m/s
17:000%62%0J/kg1.4°C24134m9.1m/s
18:000%47%0J/kg2°C24135m8.9m/s
19:000%0%0J/kg2.7°C24134m8.5m/s
20:000%0%0J/kg2.8°C24135m6m/s
21:000%0%0J/kg2.6°C24134m3m/s
22:000%0%4J/kg2.4°C24134m1.7m/s
23:000%0%4J/kg2.3°C24134m1.5m/s
Wed, May 27
24:000%0%8J/kg2.4°C24135m1.2m/s
01:000%0%2J/kg2.9°C24135m1.9m/s
02:000%0%1J/kg3.1°C23085m1.1m/s
03:000%0%0J/kg2.8°C24135m0.51m/s
04:000%1.6%2J/kg2.5°C22438m0.82m/s
05:000%0%4J/kg2.9°C23004m3m/s
06:000%0%6J/kg3.3°C23569m5.2m/s
07:000%69%8J/kg3.7°C24135m7.4m/s
08:000%100%5.3J/kg4.1°C24135m7.7m/s
09:000%69%2.7J/kg4.4°C24135m7.9m/s
10:000%42%0J/kg4.8°C24135m8.2m/s
11:000%35%0J/kg4.7°C24135m7.9m/s
12:000%13%0J/kg4.7°C24135m7.6m/s
13:000%8.8%0J/kg4.7°C24135m7.3m/s
14:000%35%0J/kg4.8°C24135m6.1m/s
15:000%65%0J/kg5°C24135m4.8m/s
16:000%72%0J/kg5.2°C24135m3.5m/s
17:000%91%0J/kg5.3°C24135m3.4m/s
18:000%73%0J/kg5.4°C24135m3.2m/s
19:000%0%0J/kg5.5°C24135m3m/s
20:000%0%0J/kg5.7°C24135m2.7m/s
21:000%0%0J/kg6°C24135m2.5m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity). For OR groups, only one branch is required, so some OR-branch predicates can be ✕ even in a matching hour.

What does Cloud Drama Score mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Australia/Melbourne
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
High Clouds
%
Lifted Index
°C
Low Clouds
%
Mid-Level Clouds
%
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Relative Humidity
%
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Solar Elevation
°
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Total Precipitation
mm
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Sun, May 24 Sunrise 07:20 Sunset 17:12
23:00
1012hPa 46J/kg 99% 1.3°C 100% 100% 95% 1.8mm 95% 0.49mm 22dBZ -66° 100% 1.7mm - - 1.6m/s
Mon, May 25 Sunrise 07:20 Sunset 17:12
24:00
1012hPa 47J/kg 100% 1.7°C 99% 100% 93% 3.3mm 98% 0.41mm 22dBZ -73° 100% 4.9mm - - 1.2m/s
01:00
1012hPa 38J/kg 100% 1.2°C 60% 100% 90% 0.15mm 97% 0.33mm 22dBZ -71° 100% 6.6mm 2m/s 4.9m/s 1.3m/s
02:00
1012hPa 49J/kg 100% 0.8°C 99% 100% 92% 0.44mm 97% 0.35mm 24dBZ -62° 100% 7.2mm - - 0.77m/s
03:00
1012hPa 51J/kg 69% 0.8°C 97% 99% 93% 0.26mm 97% 0.26mm 25dBZ -51° 100% 7.8mm - - 0.66m/s
04:00
1011hPa 70J/kg 6% 1°C 27% 93% 95% 0.01mm 97% 0mm 27dBZ -39° 93% 8.1mm 3m/s 3.8m/s 1.4m/s
05:00
1012hPa 59J/kg 0% 1.6°C 68% 73% 93% 0mm 98% 0.43mm 13dBZ -28° 78% 0.25mm - - 1.1m/s
06:00
1012hPa 44J/kg 5% 2.6°C 42% 5% 91% 0mm 96% 0.12mm -0.61dBZ -16° 42% 0.31mm - - 0.58m/s
07:00
1012hPa 32J/kg 8% 3.1°C 11% 27% 89% 0mm 96% 0mm -14dBZ -4.6° 31% 0.31mm 3m/s 5.8m/s 0.21m/s
08:00
1013hPa 35J/kg 94% 3°C 8% 36% 92% 0mm 96% 0mm -16dBZ 94% 0.31mm - - 0.31m/s
09:00
1013hPa 32J/kg 100% 3.6°C 0% 16% 94% 0mm 92% 0mm -18dBZ 15° 100% 0.31mm - - 0.44m/s
10:00
1013hPa 34J/kg 100% 3.8°C 0% 98% 96% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ 23° 100% 0.31mm 5.4m/s 8.3m/s 0.51m/s
11:00
1013hPa 21J/kg 100% 4.2°C 0% 99% 78% 0mm 81% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 100% 0mm - - 0.57m/s
12:00
1012hPa 40J/kg 100% 3.9°C 1% 64% 60% 0mm 76% 0mm -20dBZ 31° 100% 0mm - - 0.52m/s
13:00
1011hPa 72J/kg 100% 3.3°C 3% 5% 41% 0mm 72% 0mm -20dBZ 30° 100% 0mm 6m/s 8.3m/s 0.52m/s
14:00
1011hPa 82J/kg 100% 3°C 7% 98% 40% 0mm 69% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 100% 0mm - - 1.3m/s
15:00
1011hPa 107J/kg 100% 2.8°C 78% 96% 39% 0mm 69% 0.17mm -20dBZ 20° 100% 0.06mm - - 1.9m/s
16:00
1011hPa 93J/kg 100% 2.7°C 64% 98% 39% 0mm 73% 0mm -20dBZ 11° 100% 0.13mm 6.2m/s 11m/s 2m/s
17:00
1011hPa 57J/kg 100% 3.3°C 68% 100% 26% 0mm 77% 0mm -20dBZ 1.7° 100% 0mm - - 1.9m/s
18:00
1011hPa 39J/kg 100% 3.6°C 19% 90% 13% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -9.4° 100% 0mm - - 1.6m/s
19:00
1012hPa 26J/kg 100% 3.7°C 21% 62% 0% 0mm 81% 0mm -20dBZ -21° 100% 0mm 7.1m/s 13m/s 1.1m/s
20:00
1012hPa 10J/kg 98% 3.4°C 40% 70% 17% 0mm 83% 0mm -20dBZ -33° 98% 0mm - - 0.74m/s
21:00
1012hPa 2J/kg 100% 3.4°C 49% 85% 33% 0mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ -44° 100% 0mm - - 0.38m/s
22:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 12% 3.7°C 78% 100% 50% 0mm 87% 0mm -20dBZ -56° 100% 0mm 5.9m/s 13m/s 0.44m/s
23:00
1012hPa 1J/kg 5% 3.9°C 77% 96% 45% 0mm 89% 0mm -20dBZ -66° 96% 0mm - - 0.39m/s
Tue, May 26 Sunrise 07:21 Sunset 17:12
24:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 16% 3.6°C 60% 73% 40% 0mm 90% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 74% 0mm - - 0.39m/s
01:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 5% 2.8°C 25% 35% 35% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ -71° 38% 0mm 3.7m/s 11m/s 0.54m/s
02:00
1012hPa 2J/kg 52% 2.7°C 84% 23% 40% 0mm 92% 0mm -20dBZ -62° 84% 0mm - - 0.41m/s
03:00
1012hPa 2J/kg 100% 2°C 44% 8% 45% 0mm 93% 0mm -20dBZ -51° 100% 0mm - - 0.25m/s
04:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 100% 1.9°C 5% 5% 50% 0mm 94% 0mm -20dBZ -39° 100% 0mm 5.8m/s 10m/s 0.36m/s
05:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 100% 1.9°C 6% 5% 34% 0mm 94% 0mm -20dBZ -28° 100% 0mm - - 0.5m/s
06:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 100% 1.8°C 5% 5% 17% 0mm 95% 0mm -20dBZ -16° 100% 0mm - - 0.41m/s
07:00
1013hPa 0J/kg 75% 1.6°C 4% 31% 1% 0mm 95% 0mm -20dBZ -4.7° 75% 0mm 6.7m/s 8.1m/s 0.82m/s
08:00
1013hPa 0J/kg 72% 1.4°C 5% 14% 6% 0mm 94% 0mm -20dBZ 5.8° 72% 0mm - - 0.29m/s
09:00
1013hPa 2J/kg 100% 1.6°C 6% 47% 12% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ 15° 100% 0mm - - 0.44m/s
10:00
1013hPa 2J/kg 40% 1.9°C 6% 41% 17% 0mm 79% 0mm -20dBZ 23° 57% 0mm 5.6m/s 4.8m/s 0.3m/s
11:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 100% 2.5°C 5% 5% 45% 0mm 70% 0mm -20dBZ 28° 100% 0mm - - 1.5m/s
12:00
1010hPa 0J/kg 100% 2.3°C 4% 4% 72% 0mm 64% 0mm -20dBZ 31° 100% 0mm - - 2.2m/s
13:00
1010hPa 25J/kg 100% 0.7°C 15% 15% 100% 0mm 59% 0mm -20dBZ 30° 100% 0mm 7.7m/s 7.6m/s 2.5m/s
14:00
1009hPa 19J/kg 75% 1.5°C 12% 27% 100% 0mm 58% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 75% 0mm - - 3.5m/s
15:00
1009hPa 54J/kg 100% 1°C 5% 73% 100% 0mm 58% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 100% 0mm - - 3.3m/s
16:00
1008hPa 44J/kg 59% 0.5°C 0% 13% 100% 0mm 66% 0mm -20dBZ 11° 59% 0mm 7.3m/s 13m/s 3.5m/s
17:00
1008hPa 0J/kg 98% 1.4°C 0% 90% 81% 0mm 73% 0mm -20dBZ 1.6° 98% 0mm - - 3.9m/s
18:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 100% 2°C 0% 48% 63% 0mm 77% 0mm -20dBZ -9.5° 100% 0mm - - 3.2m/s
19:00
1008hPa 0J/kg 100% 2.7°C 2% 100% 44% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -21° 100% 0mm 5.2m/s 14m/s 2.9m/s
20:00
1008hPa 0J/kg 100% 2.8°C 5% 100% 51% 0mm 82% 0mm -3dBZ -33° 100% 0mm - - 2.1m/s
21:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 100% 2.6°C 50% 100% 58% 0mm 85% 0mm 14dBZ -45° 100% 0mm - - 0.96m/s
22:00
1009hPa 4J/kg 100% 2.4°C 66% 100% 64% 0mm 86% 0mm 31dBZ -56° 100% 0mm 9.1m/s 5.3m/s 1m/s
23:00
1009hPa 4J/kg 100% 2.3°C 100% 100% 55% 0mm 86% 0mm 30dBZ -66° 100% 0mm - - 0.87m/s
Wed, May 27 Sunrise 07:22 Sunset 17:11
24:00
1009hPa 8J/kg 100% 2.4°C 100% 100% 46% 0.16mm 87% 0mm 29dBZ -73° 100% 0.13mm - - 0.75m/s
01:00
1009hPa 2J/kg 78% 2.9°C 100% 99% 37% 0.03mm 88% 0mm 28dBZ -71° 100% 0.19mm 9.9m/s 7.5m/s 1.1m/s
02:00
1009hPa 1J/kg 10% 3.1°C 100% 96% 35% 0.22mm 88% 0mm 25dBZ -62° 100% 0.31mm - - 0.7m/s
03:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 1% 2.8°C 100% 50% 34% 0.01mm 89% 0mm 22dBZ -51° 100% 0.38mm - - 0.24m/s
04:00
1008hPa 2J/kg 0% 2.5°C 100% 92% 32% 0.16mm 90% 0mm 18dBZ -40° 100% 0.44mm 4.4m/s 2.9m/s 0.8m/s
05:00
1011hPa 4J/kg 3% 2.9°C 85% 64% 55% 0.11mm 87% 0mm 18dBZ -28° 85% 0.29mm - - 2.2m/s
06:00
1013hPa 6J/kg 6% 3.3°C 69% 35% 77% 0.05mm 85% 0mm 18dBZ -16° 69% 0.15mm - - 3.5m/s
07:00
1016hPa 8J/kg 9% 3.7°C 54% 6% 100% 0mm 83% 0mm 18dBZ -4.8° 54% 0mm 6.2m/s 2.9m/s 4.9m/s
08:00
1016hPa 5.3J/kg 39% 4.1°C 38% 11% 100% 0mm 80% 0mm 5.4dBZ 5.7° 69% 0mm - - 5.1m/s
09:00
1016hPa 2.7J/kg 70% 4.4°C 22% 15% 100% 0mm 78% 0mm -7.1dBZ 15° 85% 0mm - - 5.3m/s
10:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 100% 4.8°C 6% 20% 100% 0mm 75% 0mm -20dBZ 23° 100% 0mm 7.3m/s 6m/s 5.6m/s
11:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 100% 4.7°C 4% 15% 71% 0mm 76% 0mm -20dBZ 28° 100% 0mm - - 5.2m/s
12:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 100% 4.7°C 2% 10% 42% 0mm 76% 0mm -20dBZ 31° 100% 0mm - - 4.8m/s
13:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 100% 4.7°C 0% 5% 14% 0mm 77% 0mm -20dBZ 30° 100% 0mm 5.3m/s 4.8m/s 4.4m/s
14:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 87% 4.8°C 0% 21% 16% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 89% 0mm - - 3.9m/s
15:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 74% 5°C 0% 37% 19% 0mm 79% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 79% 0mm - - 3.3m/s
16:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 61% 5.2°C 0% 53% 22% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ 11° 68% 0mm 2.5m/s 3.5m/s 2.8m/s
17:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 44% 5.3°C 0% 36% 18% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ 1.5° 49% 0mm - - 2.8m/s
18:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 27% 5.4°C 0% 18% 14% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -9.6° 30% 0mm - - 2.8m/s
19:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 10% 5.5°C 0% 0% 9% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -21° 10% 0mm 1.3m/s 0.3m/s 2.8m/s
20:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 12% 5.7°C 0% 0% 23% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -33° 12% 0mm - - 2.4m/s
21:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 14% 6°C 0% 0% 36% 0mm 81% 0mm -20dBZ -45° 14% 0mm - - 2.1m/s
22:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 16% 6.2°C 0% 0% 50% 0mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -56° 16% 0mm 4.1m/s 2.5m/s 1.8m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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