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Rule Storm Chaser

Melbourne - Storm Chaser - Australian Coast

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Dramatic storm conditions — from atmospheric builds to active thunderstorms

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Storm Chaser opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Storm Intensity · ≥ 55.0% Cloud Drama Score · ≥ 55.0% CAPE · ≥ 1200.0J/kg Lifted Index · ≤ -2.0°C

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Storm Intensity 100% failing
CAPE 100% failing
Cloud Drama Score 83% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Cloud Cover100%
Wind Gusts1.0m/s
Precipitation Chance0%
Air Pressure1022.5hPa
CAPE0
Lifted Index7.9°C
Wind Gusts1.0m/s
Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the dramatic storm systems that bring lightning, massive swells, and atmospheric drama to Australia's eastern coastline. We monitor low-pressure systems, lightning activity, and wave heights to predict when Southern Ocean storms will create spectacular—but safe—photography conditions.

Australia's east coast faces the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean, which generate powerful weather systems year-round. These storms bring towering seas that crash against coastal cliffs, creating explosions of spray. Lightning storms, particularly during summer, offer opportunities for long-exposure captures over harbors and beaches. Winter storms bring the largest swells and most dramatic cloud formations.

What makes Australian coastal storms exceptional:

  • Southern Ocean swells - Winter low-pressure systems generate massive groundswells that pound Victoria and southern NSW
  • Wollongong sea cliffs - Dramatic headlands where storm waves explode against cliffs in spectacular displays
  • Byron Bay lightning - Subtropical storms bring frequent lightning over the iconic lighthouse and beaches
  • Sydney storm drama - The harbour becomes wild during southerly busters and east coast lows

Best storm photography occurs during winter (June-August) when Southern Ocean low-pressure systems bring large swells and dramatic skies. Summer thunderstorms (November-February) offer lightning opportunities over coastal icons. East coast lows—intense low-pressure systems—create the most extreme conditions but pose significant safety risks. Our forecast helps identify approaching storms so you can position safely with proper conditions. Never stand on exposed rocks during large swells.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 79 hours
OR logic: one branch per group is enough
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Australia/Melbourne
Storm Intensity
≥ 55.0%
Cloud Drama Score
≥ 55.0%
CAPE
OR1·B1
≥ 1200.0J/kg
Lifted Index
OR1·B2
≤ -2.0°C
Visibility
≥ 2500.0m
Wind Gusts
≤ 22.0m/s
Wed, Jul 8
15:000%14%0J/kg7.9°C24134m1.4m/s
16:000%16%0J/kg7.9°C24135m1.8m/s
17:000%38%0J/kg7.8°C24134m2.8m/s
18:000%57%0J/kg7.8°C24135m1.6m/s
19:000%13%0J/kg7.9°C24134m0.51m/s
20:000%15%0J/kg8°C24134m0.3m/s
21:000%14%0J/kg8°C24134m0.33m/s
22:000%10%0J/kg7.9°C24134m0.8m/s
23:000%12%0J/kg7.9°C24134m1m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%8.2%0J/kg7.7°C24135m1m/s
01:000%4.6%0J/kg7.6°C24135m1.1m/s
02:000%3.9%0J/kg7.7°C24135m1.5m/s
03:000%0.1%0J/kg7.7°C24135m1.5m/s
04:000%0%0J/kg7.8°C24134m1.6m/s
05:000%0%0J/kg7.8°C24134m1.5m/s
06:000%0%0J/kg7.8°C24134m1.5m/s
07:000%36%0J/kg7.9°C24135m1.9m/s
08:000%37%0J/kg8.1°C24134m1.9m/s
09:000%38%0J/kg8.1°C24134m2m/s
10:000%38%0J/kg8°C24135m1.5m/s
11:000%33%0J/kg7.8°C24135m1.4m/s
12:000%34%0J/kg7.4°C24135m1.6m/s
13:000%35%0J/kg6.7°C24134m1.5m/s
14:000%34%0J/kg5.9°C24134m1.5m/s
15:000%37%0J/kg5.4°C24134m1.6m/s
16:000%38%0J/kg4.9°C24135m1.2m/s
17:000%85%0J/kg4.8°C24135m1.1m/s
18:000%87%0J/kg5°C24134m1.2m/s
19:000%9.2%0J/kg5.4°C24135m1.6m/s
20:000%9.7%0J/kg5.3°C24134m2.1m/s
21:000%4.3%0J/kg5.6°C24135m2.5m/s
22:000%4.5%0J/kg5.8°C24135m2.2m/s
23:000%11%0J/kg6°C24134m2.2m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%9.3%0J/kg6°C24135m2.8m/s
01:000%6.5%0J/kg6.1°C24135m2.7m/s
02:000%12%0J/kg6°C24134m3.2m/s
03:000%11%0J/kg5.9°C24135m3.2m/s
04:000%14%0J/kg6°C24135m3.5m/s
05:000%14%0J/kg6.1°C24134m3.7m/s
06:000%14%0J/kg6°C24135m4m/s
07:000%54%0J/kg6.1°C24135m4.4m/s
08:000%64%0J/kg6.2°C24135m4.9m/s
09:000%58%0J/kg5.9°C24135m5.8m/s
10:000%41%0J/kg5.5°C24135m5.8m/s
11:000%33%0J/kg5.2°C24135m5.8m/s
12:000%32%0J/kg4.7°C24135m5.6m/s
13:000%41%0J/kg4.1°C24134m5.4m/s
14:000%32%0J/kg3.5°C24135m5.5m/s
15:000%31%0J/kg3.2°C24134m5.6m/s
16:000%36%0J/kg3.3°C24135m5.6m/s
17:000%64%0J/kg3.7°C24134m7.4m/s
18:000%34%0J/kg4.2°C24134m7.9m/s
19:000%12%0J/kg4.7°C24135m7.7m/s
20:000%12%0J/kg4.8°C24134m8.1m/s
21:000%9.8%0J/kg4.4°C24134m8.8m/s
22:000%14%0J/kg4.4°C24134m8.6m/s
23:000%14%0J/kg4.5°C24135m8.9m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%14%1J/kg4.7°C24134m9.9m/s
01:000%15%4J/kg4.9°C24134m11m/s
02:000%15%4J/kg4.9°C24135m12m/s
03:000%15%4J/kg4.9°C24135m12m/s
04:000%9.1%6J/kg4.8°C24135m13m/s
05:000%0%4J/kg4.5°C24135m14m/s
06:000%0%2J/kg4.2°C24135m16m/s
07:0015%65%0J/kg4°C24135m18m/s
08:000%79%16J/kg3.3°C19068m17m/s
09:0016%88%32J/kg2.6°C14002m17m/s
10:0041%59%48J/kg2°C8935m17m/s
11:0032%46%32J/kg3.1°C12513m14m/s
12:0023%48%16J/kg4.2°C16091m12m/s
13:0041%46%0J/kg5.3°C19668m8.9m/s
14:0025%74%2J/kg4.2°C21157m12m/s
15:0044%90%4J/kg3°C22646m15m/s
16:0051%38%6J/kg1.9°C24135m17m/s
17:0027%60%13J/kg3°C24135m18m/s
18:0021%51%20J/kg4.1°C24135m18m/s
19:0020%0%27J/kg5.1°C24135m19m/s
20:000%0%26J/kg5.7°C24135m18m/s
21:000%0%25J/kg6.3°C24135m17m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity). For OR groups, only one branch is required, so some OR-branch predicates can be ✕ even in a matching hour.

What does Cloud Drama Score mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Australia/Melbourne
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
Convective Precip Fraction
fraction
High Clouds
%
Lifted Index
°C
Low Clouds
%
Mid-Level Clouds
%
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Relative Humidity
%
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Solar Elevation
°
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Total Precipitation
mm
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 07:35 Sunset 17:14
23:00
1023hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 43% 7.9°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -66° 100% 0mm - - 1.1m/s
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 07:35 Sunset 17:14
24:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 41% 7.7°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -74° 100% 0mm - - 1.1m/s
01:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 99% 7.6°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 100% 0mm 2.7m/s 1.6m/s 1.2m/s
02:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 7.7°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 100% 0mm - - 1.3m/s
03:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 7.7°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 83% 0mm -20dBZ -54° 100% 0mm - - 1.3m/s
04:00
1021hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 7.8°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 83% 0mm -20dBZ -42° 100% 0mm 3.2m/s 2.4m/s 1.4m/s
05:00
1021hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 7.8°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 83% 0mm -20dBZ -30° 100% 0mm - - 1.4m/s
06:00
1021hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 7.8°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -18° 100% 0mm - - 1.4m/s
07:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 7.9°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -7° 100% 0mm 1.7m/s 2.6m/s 1.6m/s
08:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 8.1°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 81% 0mm -20dBZ 3.6° 100% 0mm - - 1.6m/s
09:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 8.1°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 74% 0mm -20dBZ 13° 100% 0mm - - 1.2m/s
10:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 8°C 0% 99% 0% 0mm 65% 0mm -20dBZ 21° 100% 0mm 2m/s 2.9m/s 0.97m/s
11:00
1021hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 97% 7.8°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 58% 0mm -20dBZ 27° 100% 0mm - - 0.88m/s
12:00
1021hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 79% 7.4°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 53% 0mm -20dBZ 30° 100% 0mm - - 0.76m/s
13:00
1020hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 86% 6.7°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 49% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 100% 0mm 0.96m/s 2.2m/s 0.37m/s
14:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 92% 5.9°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 47% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 100% 0mm - - 0.19m/s
15:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 96% 5.4°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 46% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 100% 0mm - - 0.16m/s
16:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 68% 4.9°C 0% 96% 0% 0mm 53% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 96% 0mm 0.61m/s 1.1m/s 0.94m/s
17:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 42% 4.8°C 0% 75% 0% 0mm 58% 0mm -20dBZ 2.2° 75% 0mm - - 0.82m/s
18:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 54% 5°C 0% 63% 0% 0mm 63% 0mm -20dBZ -8.7° 63% 0mm - - 1m/s
19:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 50% 5.4°C 0% 45% 0% 0mm 68% 0mm -20dBZ -20° 55% 0mm 0.32m/s 1.3m/s 1.5m/s
20:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 23% 5.3°C 0% 97% 0% 0mm 74% 0mm -20dBZ -32° 97% 0mm - - 1.6m/s
21:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 45% 5.6°C 0% 98% 0% 0mm 76% 0mm -20dBZ -44° 98% 0mm - - 1.8m/s
22:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 71% 5.8°C 0% 62% 0% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ -55° 71% 0mm 0.06m/s 2.5m/s 1.7m/s
23:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 64% 6°C 0% 99% 0% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -66° 99% 0mm - - 1.7m/s
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 07:35 Sunset 17:15
24:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 57% 6°C 0% 80% 0% 0mm 79% 0mm -20dBZ -74° 80% 0mm - - 1.8m/s
01:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 55% 6.1°C 0% 91% 0% 0mm 79% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 91% 0mm 0.49m/s 1.2m/s 1.8m/s
02:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 17% 6°C 0% 96% 0% 0mm 79% 0mm -20dBZ -64° 96% 0mm - - 1.7m/s
03:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 5.9°C 0% 91% 0% 0mm 79% 0mm -20dBZ -53° 91% 0mm - - 1.7m/s
04:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 6°C 0% 72% 0% 0mm 81% 0mm -20dBZ -42° 72% 0mm 0.33m/s 1.3m/s 1.8m/s
05:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 6.1°C 0% 43% 0% 0mm 83% 0mm -20dBZ -30° 43% 0mm - - 2m/s
06:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 6°C 0% 95% 0% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -18° 95% 0mm - - 2m/s
07:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 6.1°C 0% 83% 0% 0mm 83% 0mm -20dBZ -7° 83% 0mm 1.6m/s 3.4m/s 2.1m/s
08:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 6.2°C 0% 65% 0% 0mm 83% 0mm -20dBZ 3.7° 65% 0mm - - 2.1m/s
09:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 4% 5.9°C 0% 76% 0% 0mm 74% 0mm -20dBZ 13° 76% 0mm - - 2.1m/s
10:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 5.5°C 0% 88% 0% 0mm 64% 0mm -20dBZ 21° 88% 0mm 2.4m/s 4.1m/s 2.7m/s
11:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 5.2°C 0% 93% 0% 0mm 58% 0mm -20dBZ 27° 93% 0mm - - 3.1m/s
12:00
1014hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.7°C 0% 97% 0% 0mm 54% 0mm -20dBZ 30° 97% 0mm - - 3.5m/s
13:00
1013hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.1°C 0% 80% 0% 0mm 52% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 80% 0mm 4.4m/s 6.1m/s 3.7m/s
14:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 3.5°C 0% 88% 0% 0mm 52% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 88% 0mm - - 3.9m/s
15:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 3.2°C 2% 96% 0% 0mm 54% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 96% 0mm - - 3.8m/s
16:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 3.3°C 2% 93% 0% 0mm 59% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 93% 0mm 4m/s 7.4m/s 3.5m/s
17:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 1% 3.7°C 2% 52% 0% 0mm 67% 0mm -20dBZ 2.3° 52% 0mm - - 3.3m/s
18:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.2°C 6% 5% 0% 0mm 74% 0mm -20dBZ -8.6° 6% 0mm - - 2.9m/s
19:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.7°C 17% 46% 0% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ -20° 46% 0mm 3.7m/s 5.4m/s 2.9m/s
20:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 16% 4.8°C 5% 5% 0% 0mm 81% 0mm -20dBZ -32° 16% 0mm - - 3m/s
21:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 34% 4.4°C 6% 57% 0% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -43° 59% 0mm - - 2.9m/s
22:00
1011hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 60% 4.4°C 8% 12% 0% 0mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ -55° 60% 0mm 6.3m/s 8.7m/s 2.7m/s
23:00
1010hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 28% 4.5°C 9% 42% 0% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -66° 45% 0mm - - 2.8m/s
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 07:35 Sunset 17:16
24:00
1010hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.7°C 15% 6% 0% 0mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 15% 0mm - - 3.1m/s
01:00
1009hPa 4J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.9°C 46% 12% 0% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 46% 0mm 7m/s 11m/s 3.5m/s
02:00
1008hPa 4J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.9°C 73% 35% 17% 0mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -64° 73% 0mm - - 4m/s
03:00
1007hPa 4J/kg 0fraction 9% 4.9°C 80% 33% 33% 0mm 79% 0mm -20dBZ -53° 80% 0mm - - 4.6m/s
04:00
1007hPa 6J/kg 0fraction 85% 4.8°C 90% 55% 50% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ -42° 95% 0mm 4.6m/s 9.7m/s 4.7m/s
05:00
1007hPa 4J/kg 0fraction 84% 4.5°C 62% 41% 50% 0mm 75% 0mm -20dBZ -30° 90% 0mm - - 6.9m/s
06:00
1007hPa 2J/kg 0fraction 82% 4.2°C 33% 27% 50% 0mm 73% 0mm -20dBZ -18° 86% 0mm - - 9.1m/s
07:00
1007hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 81% 4°C 5% 13% 50% 0mm 70% 0mm -20dBZ -6.9° 81% 0mm 8.2m/s 10m/s 11m/s
08:00
1006hPa 16J/kg 0fraction 54% 3.3°C 37% 42% 52% 0mm 71% 0.19mm -20dBZ 3.8° 87% 0.13mm - - 11m/s
09:00
1004hPa 32J/kg 0fraction 27% 2.6°C 68% 71% 54% 0mm 72% 0.37mm -20dBZ 13° 94% 0.25mm - - 11m/s
10:00
1003hPa 48J/kg 0fraction 0% 2°C 100% 100% 56% 0mm 73% 0.56mm -20dBZ 21° 100% 0.38mm 11m/s 16m/s 11m/s
11:00
1004hPa 32J/kg 0fraction 0% 3.1°C 100% 100% 65% 0.24mm 77% 0.37mm -20dBZ 27° 100% 2.7mm - - 9.4m/s
12:00
1004hPa 16J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.2°C 100% 100% 75% 0.48mm 80% 0.19mm -20dBZ 30° 100% 5mm - - 7.5m/s
13:00
1004hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 5.3°C 100% 100% 84% 0.72mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ 30° 100% 7.4mm 13m/s 14m/s 5.6m/s
14:00
1005hPa 2J/kg 0.33fraction 0% 4.2°C 71% 68% 89% 0.49mm 79% 0mm -5dBZ 26° 71% 7.4mm - - 7.3m/s
15:00
1005hPa 4J/kg 0.67fraction 0% 3°C 42% 35% 94% 0.26mm 73% 0mm 10dBZ 20° 42% 7.5mm - - 8.9m/s
16:00
1005hPa 6J/kg 1fraction 0% 1.9°C 13% 3% 99% 0.03mm 68% 0mm 25dBZ 12° 13% 7.6mm 9.6m/s 13m/s 11m/s
17:00
1005hPa 13J/kg 0.67fraction 0% 3°C 42% 2% 74% 0.02mm 72% 0.05mm 26dBZ 2.4° 42% 5.1mm - - 11m/s
18:00
1005hPa 20J/kg 0.33fraction 0% 4.1°C 71% 1% 50% 0.01mm 76% 0.11mm 26dBZ -8.5° 71% 2.7mm - - 12m/s
19:00
1005hPa 27J/kg 0.002fraction 0% 5.1°C 100% 0% 26% 0mm 79% 0.16mm 27dBZ -20° 100% 0.31mm 7.9m/s 15m/s 12m/s
20:00
1006hPa 26J/kg 0.01fraction 0% 5.7°C 70% 0% 29% 0.02mm 77% 0.14mm 11dBZ -32° 70% 0.44mm - - 12m/s
21:00
1007hPa 25J/kg 0.01fraction 0% 6.3°C 41% 0% 33% 0.03mm 74% 0.12mm -4.3dBZ -43° 41% 0.56mm - - 12m/s
22:00
1008hPa 24J/kg 0.01fraction 0% 6.9°C 11% 0% 37% 0.05mm 72% 0.1mm -20dBZ -55° 11% 0.69mm 8.7m/s 10m/s 11m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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