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Rule Fire Sky

Fire Sky Forecast for Melbourne, Australian Coast

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Melbourne combines the Yarra's bridges and skyline with Port Phillip beaches, while nearby Brighton bathing boxes add color and repetition.

1 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.

Hourly forecast scores

Forecast valid from Oct 7, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC (one hour; not an observation)
Fiery Red Sky Potential
0%
Low Cloud Cover0%
Mid Cloud Cover0%
High Cloud Cover0%
Aerosol Optical Depth0.1
Sun Elevation36.8°

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne
fire-sky weather icon
First upcoming window
Good Fiery Red Sky at Sunrise
Melbourne
Fri, Oct 16 · 06:17–07:00 · 1h window
Low confidence
41%
🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential67%
Low Cloud Cover: 0%
Mid Cloud Cover: 0%
High Cloud Cover: 86%
Sun Elevation: -7.3° (Nautical twilight)

71-hour requirements breakdown

When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 71-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Australia/Melbourne.

Requirements breakdown is temporarily unavailable or expired. This does not mean no opportunities.

Supporting forecast inputs

Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.

Forecast time (Australia/Melbourne)Aerosol Optical Depth (550nm)Clear Sky Probability (Ensemble)Cloud Cover Uncertainty (Ensemble)Dust AOD (550nm)Golden HourHigh CloudsLow CloudsMid-Level CloudsRH @ 700 hPaSmoke AOD (550nm)Solar ElevationSunshine Duration
Thu, Oct 8, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
0.06100%0%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%11%0.0137°3600seconds
0.06100%0%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%12%0.0147°3600seconds
0.05100%0%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%13%0.0154°3600seconds
0.05100%0%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%13%0.0158°3600seconds
0.05100%0%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%14%0.0156°3600seconds
0.0599%3%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%14%0.0149°3600seconds
0.0597%7%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%13%0.0140°3600seconds
0.0596%10%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%13%0.0129°3600seconds
0.0579%18%0.002Unavailable23%0%0%11%0.0117°3600seconds
0.0562%26%0.002Unavailable73%0%0%10%0.015.3°3600seconds
Night0.0545%34%0.002Unavailable1%0%0%8.7%0.01-6.5°85seconds
Night0.0643%29%0.002Unavailable63%0%0%7.9%0.01-18°0seconds
Night0.0540%24%0.002Unavailable52%0%0%7%0.01-28°0seconds
Night0.0538%19%0.002Unavailable25%0%0%6.2%0.01-37°0seconds
Fri, Oct 9, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
Night0.0548%21%0.002Unavailable15%0%0%6.1%0.01-43°0seconds
Night0.0559%22%0.002Unavailable20%0%0%6.1%0.01-46°0seconds
Night0.0569%24%0.002Unavailable37%0%0%6%0.01-44°0seconds
Night0.0570%21%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%5.8%0.01-39°0seconds
Night0.0572%19%0.002Unavailable9%0%0%5.6%0.01-31°0seconds
Night0.0573%16%0.002Unavailable7%0%0%5.4%0.01-20°0seconds
Night0.0561%21%0.002Unavailable7%0%0%5.5%0.01-9.4°0seconds
0.0548%27%0.002Unavailable21%0%0%5.7%0.012.5°0seconds
0.0536%32%0.002Unavailable61%0%0%5.8%0.0114°3600seconds
0.0526%28%0.002Unavailable66%0%0%6.2%0.0126°3600seconds
0.0415%25%0.002Unavailable21%0%0%6.5%0.0137°3600seconds
0.045%21%0.004Unavailable42%0%0%6.9%0.0147°3600seconds
Unavailable4%21%UnavailableUnavailable48%0%0%6.6%Unavailable55°3600seconds
Unavailable4%21%UnavailableUnavailable19%0%0%6.3%Unavailable58°3600seconds
Unavailable3%21%UnavailableUnavailable73%0%0%6%Unavailable56°3600seconds
Unavailable2%18%UnavailableUnavailable91%0%0%11%Unavailable49°3600seconds
Unavailable1%14%UnavailableUnavailable90%0%0%17%Unavailable40°3600seconds
Unavailable0%11%UnavailableUnavailable93%0%2%22%Unavailable29°3600seconds
Unavailable1%14%UnavailableUnavailable96%0%1%42%Unavailable17°2884seconds
Unavailable2%17%UnavailableUnavailable98%0%0%63%Unavailable5.5°0seconds
NightUnavailable3%20%UnavailableUnavailable98%0%69%83%Unavailable-6.3°0seconds
NightUnavailable2%17%UnavailableUnavailable99%0%85%76%Unavailable-18°0seconds
NightUnavailable1%13%UnavailableUnavailable99%0%80%70%Unavailable-28°0seconds
NightUnavailable0%10%UnavailableUnavailable100%0%99%63%Unavailable-37°0seconds
Sat, Oct 10, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
NightUnavailable0%9%UnavailableUnavailable98%0%88%74%Unavailable-43°0seconds
NightUnavailable0%7%UnavailableUnavailable46%0%93%85%Unavailable-46°0seconds
NightUnavailable0%6%UnavailableUnavailable6%0%100%96%Unavailable-44°0seconds
NightUnavailable0%10%UnavailableUnavailable0%2%100%97%Unavailable-39°0seconds
NightUnavailable1%13%UnavailableUnavailable0%14%20%97%Unavailable-30°0seconds
NightUnavailable1%17%UnavailableUnavailable0%57%0%98%Unavailable-20°0seconds
NightUnavailable14%21%UnavailableUnavailable0%16%4%68%Unavailable-9.1°0seconds
Unavailable27%26%UnavailableUnavailable0%2%2%39%Unavailable2.8°0seconds
Unavailable40%30%UnavailableUnavailable0%7%3%9.4%Unavailable14°3600seconds
Unavailable45%27%UnavailableUnavailable0%11%1%11%Unavailable26°3600seconds
Unavailable49%24%UnavailableUnavailable0%16%0%13%Unavailable37°3600seconds
Unavailable54%21%UnavailableUnavailable0%3%1%16%Unavailable47°3600seconds
Unavailable60%22%UnavailableUnavailable0%12%4%14%Unavailable55°3600seconds
Unavailable65%23%UnavailableUnavailable0%12%25%12%Unavailable59°3600seconds
Unavailable71%24%UnavailableUnavailable0%3%30%9.9%Unavailable57°3600seconds
Unavailable69%24%UnavailableUnavailable0%0%12%8.9%Unavailable50°3600seconds
Unavailable66%25%UnavailableUnavailable0%2%52%7.9%Unavailable40°3600seconds
Unavailable64%25%UnavailableUnavailable0%6%39%6.9%Unavailable29°3600seconds
Unavailable55%28%UnavailableUnavailable0%6%47%8.3%Unavailable17°3600seconds
Unavailable47%30%UnavailableUnavailable0%11%60%9.6%Unavailable5.7°3600seconds
NightUnavailable38%33%UnavailableUnavailable0%23%22%11%Unavailable-6.1°32seconds
NightUnavailable35%32%UnavailableUnavailable0%2%15%13%Unavailable-17°0seconds
NightUnavailable31%31%UnavailableUnavailable0%5%11%14%Unavailable-28°0seconds
NightUnavailable28%30%UnavailableUnavailable0%13%83%16%Unavailable-36°0seconds
Sun, Oct 11, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
NightUnavailable34%32%UnavailableUnavailable0%19%27%16%Unavailable-43°0seconds
NightUnavailable39%33%UnavailableUnavailable0%24%13%16%Unavailable-45°0seconds
NightUnavailable45%35%UnavailableUnavailable0%18%1%17%Unavailable-44°0seconds
NightUnavailable49%33%UnavailableUnavailable0%7%0%17%Unavailable-38°0seconds
NightUnavailable54%31%UnavailableUnavailable0%20%1%16%Unavailable-30°0seconds
NightUnavailable58%29%UnavailableUnavailable0%24%2%16%Unavailable-20°0seconds
NightUnavailable68%26%UnavailableUnavailable0%25%7%18%Unavailable-8.8°0seconds
Unavailable77%24%UnavailableUnavailable0%27%9%19%Unavailable3.1°0seconds
Unavailable87%21%UnavailableUnavailable0%23%12%21%Unavailable15°3600seconds
Unavailable88%20%UnavailableUnavailable0%13%7%22%Unavailable26°3600seconds

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Fire Sky conditions across Australian Coast. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Melbourne.

Explore Fire Sky conditions across Australian Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Melbourne during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days
22
recorded matching windows · 76% average confidence
Last 90 days
44
recorded matching windows · 73% average confidence
Last 365 days
76
recorded matching windows · 72% average confidence
Most frequent recorded start hour

07:00 local time, shared by 32 of 76 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

September, with 23 of 76 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

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