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Rule Storm Chaser

Lorne - Storm Chaser - Australian Coast

Lorne, Victoria, Australia

Dramatic storm conditions — from atmospheric builds to active thunderstorms

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Storm Chaser opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Storm Intensity · ≥ 55.0% Cloud Drama Score · ≥ 55.0% CAPE · ≥ 1200.0J/kg Lifted Index · ≤ -2.0°C

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Storm Intensity 100% failing
CAPE 100% failing
Cloud Drama Score 74% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Cloud Cover100%
Wind Gusts2.3m/s
Precipitation Chance0%
Air Pressure1013.5hPa
CAPE0
Lifted Index6.7°C
Wind Gusts2.3m/s
Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the dramatic storm systems that bring lightning, massive swells, and atmospheric drama to Australia's eastern coastline. We monitor low-pressure systems, lightning activity, and wave heights to predict when Southern Ocean storms will create spectacular—but safe—photography conditions.

Australia's east coast faces the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean, which generate powerful weather systems year-round. These storms bring towering seas that crash against coastal cliffs, creating explosions of spray. Lightning storms, particularly during summer, offer opportunities for long-exposure captures over harbors and beaches. Winter storms bring the largest swells and most dramatic cloud formations.

What makes Australian coastal storms exceptional:

  • Southern Ocean swells - Winter low-pressure systems generate massive groundswells that pound Victoria and southern NSW
  • Wollongong sea cliffs - Dramatic headlands where storm waves explode against cliffs in spectacular displays
  • Byron Bay lightning - Subtropical storms bring frequent lightning over the iconic lighthouse and beaches
  • Sydney storm drama - The harbour becomes wild during southerly busters and east coast lows

Best storm photography occurs during winter (June-August) when Southern Ocean low-pressure systems bring large swells and dramatic skies. Summer thunderstorms (November-February) offer lightning opportunities over coastal icons. East coast lows—intense low-pressure systems—create the most extreme conditions but pose significant safety risks. Our forecast helps identify approaching storms so you can position safely with proper conditions. Never stand on exposed rocks during large swells.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
OR logic: one branch per group is enough
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Australia/Melbourne
Storm Intensity
≥ 55.0%
Cloud Drama Score
≥ 55.0%
CAPE
OR1·B1
≥ 1200.0J/kg
Lifted Index
OR1·B2
≤ -2.0°C
Visibility
≥ 2500.0m
Wind Gusts
≤ 22.0m/s
Tue, Jul 7
23:000%15%7J/kg5.9°C24135m5m/s
Wed, Jul 8
24:000%15%1J/kg6.7°C24135m4.9m/s
01:000%15%0J/kg6.9°C24135m4.9m/s
02:000%15%0J/kg7.1°C24135m4.4m/s
03:000%15%0J/kg7.4°C24135m4.2m/s
04:000%9%0J/kg7.6°C24135m2.8m/s
05:000%2.9%0J/kg7.5°C24135m3.8m/s
06:000%5.9%0J/kg7.4°C24134m2.6m/s
07:000%33%0J/kg7.5°C24135m1.9m/s
08:000%33%0J/kg7.9°C24135m1.5m/s
09:000%36%0J/kg8.1°C24135m1.4m/s
10:000%28%0J/kg8.2°C24134m2.5m/s
11:000%33%0J/kg7.9°C24134m2.8m/s
12:000%22%0J/kg7.6°C24135m2.5m/s
13:000%56%0J/kg7.4°C24135m1.9m/s
14:000%56%0J/kg7.1°C24135m1.6m/s
15:000%65%0J/kg7.1°C24134m1.9m/s
16:000%31%0J/kg7.6°C24135m2.5m/s
17:000%57%0J/kg7.7°C24134m1.9m/s
18:000%66%0J/kg8°C24135m2.3m/s
19:000%13%0J/kg8°C24134m2.3m/s
20:000%11%0J/kg7.7°C24134m2.3m/s
21:000%4.4%0J/kg7.4°C24134m2.3m/s
22:000%4%0J/kg7.1°C24134m2.4m/s
23:000%3.7%0J/kg6.7°C24134m2.3m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%3.6%0J/kg6.4°C24135m1.6m/s
01:000%3.2%0J/kg6.3°C24135m1.2m/s
02:000%0.9%0J/kg6.4°C24135m0.7m/s
03:000%0%0J/kg6.2°C24135m0.6m/s
04:000%0%0J/kg6.4°C24134m0.61m/s
05:000%0%0J/kg6.4°C24134m0.7m/s
06:000%0%0J/kg6.5°C24134m1m/s
07:000%41%0J/kg6.7°C24135m1.1m/s
08:000%46%0J/kg6.9°C24134m1.2m/s
09:000%56%0J/kg7°C24134m1.1m/s
10:000%79%0J/kg7°C24135m1.1m/s
11:000%76%0J/kg6.5°C24135m1.1m/s
12:000%35%0J/kg6°C24135m1.4m/s
13:000%60%0J/kg5.7°C24134m1.7m/s
14:000%62%0J/kg5.3°C24134m2m/s
15:000%44%0J/kg5°C24134m2m/s
16:000%60%0J/kg4.7°C24135m2.2m/s
17:000%70%0J/kg4.5°C24135m1.9m/s
18:000%100%0J/kg5°C24134m1.4m/s
19:000%12%0J/kg5.7°C24135m1.4m/s
20:000%14%0J/kg6°C24134m1.7m/s
21:000%8.5%0J/kg5.8°C24135m1.9m/s
22:000%7.9%0J/kg5.5°C24135m2m/s
23:000%10%0J/kg5.4°C24134m2.2m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%13%0J/kg5°C24135m2.3m/s
01:000%11%0J/kg4.9°C24135m2.6m/s
02:000%12%0J/kg4.9°C24134m2.8m/s
03:000%15%0J/kg4.8°C24135m2.7m/s
04:000%12%0J/kg4.9°C24135m3m/s
05:000%12%0J/kg4.9°C24134m3.2m/s
06:000%13%0J/kg4.9°C24135m3.4m/s
07:000%67%0J/kg4.9°C24135m3.4m/s
08:000%37%0J/kg4.8°C24135m3.6m/s
09:000%24%0J/kg5°C24135m4m/s
10:000%20%0J/kg5°C24135m4.4m/s
11:000%8.3%0J/kg5.2°C24135m5.2m/s
12:000%9.2%0J/kg5.2°C24135m5.6m/s
13:000%7.2%0J/kg4.9°C24134m5.4m/s
14:000%18%0J/kg4.7°C24135m5.4m/s
15:000%21%0J/kg4.6°C24134m5.8m/s
16:000%24%1J/kg4.4°C24135m6.4m/s
17:000%44%0J/kg4.6°C24134m7.3m/s
18:000%100%0J/kg4.9°C24134m8.1m/s
19:000%12%0J/kg5°C24135m9.7m/s
20:000%14%0J/kg4.9°C24134m11m/s
21:000%14%0J/kg4.8°C24134m11m/s
22:000%12%0J/kg4.5°C24134m11m/s
23:000%13%0J/kg4.2°C24135m11m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:0011%14%0J/kg5°C24134m12m/s
01:0012%15%0J/kg5.2°C24134m12m/s
02:0011%9.9%0J/kg5.3°C24135m13m/s
03:0011%6%1J/kg4.9°C24135m14m/s
04:0012%1.1%8J/kg4°C24135m14m/s
05:0013%0%5.3J/kg3.5°C24135m16m/s
06:0016%0%2.7J/kg3°C24135m17m/s
07:0030%65%0J/kg2.5°C24135m19m/s
08:0026%75%13J/kg2.7°C17789m16m/s
09:0033%85%27J/kg3°C11444m14m/s
10:0045%60%40J/kg3.3°C5099m11m/s
11:0035%78%27J/kg3.4°C11444m12m/s
12:0035%82%13J/kg3.6°C17789m13m/s
13:0033%82%0J/kg3.8°C24135m14m/s
14:0031%75%3J/kg3.2°C24135m15m/s
15:0032%46%6J/kg2.5°C24135m16m/s
16:0043%36%9J/kg1.9°C24135m18m/s
17:0030%52%7.3J/kg3.8°C24135m17m/s
18:0016%56%5.7J/kg5.7°C24135m16m/s
19:0028%0%4J/kg7.5°C24135m16m/s
20:0016%0%3.3J/kg7.8°C24135m15m/s
21:0016%0%2.7J/kg8°C24135m14m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity). For OR groups, only one branch is required, so some OR-branch predicates can be ✕ even in a matching hour.

What does Cloud Drama Score mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Australia/Melbourne
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
Convective Precip Fraction
fraction
High Clouds
%
Lifted Index
°C
Low Clouds
%
Mid-Level Clouds
%
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Relative Humidity
%
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Solar Elevation
°
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Total Precipitation
mm
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 07:41 Sunset 17:16
23:00
1014hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 95% 6.7°C 2% 100% 0% 0mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 100% 0mm - - 0.73m/s
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 07:41 Sunset 17:16
24:00
1013hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 44% 6.4°C 2% 97% 0% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 97% 0mm - - 0.65m/s
01:00
1013hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 51% 6.3°C 1% 100% 0% 0mm 87% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 100% 0mm 4.5m/s 2.7m/s 0.52m/s
02:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 79% 6.4°C 3% 100% 0% 0mm 88% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 100% 0mm - - 0.31m/s
03:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 6.2°C 6% 100% 0% 0mm 89% 0mm -20dBZ -54° 100% 0mm - - 0.49m/s
04:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 6.4°C 8% 100% 0% 0mm 90% 0mm -20dBZ -43° 100% 0mm 3.9m/s 4.1m/s 0.57m/s
05:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 6.4°C 8% 100% 0% 0mm 90% 0mm -20dBZ -31° 100% 0mm - - 0.8m/s
06:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 6.5°C 5% 100% 0% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ -19° 100% 0mm - - 1m/s
07:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 6.7°C 2% 100% 0% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ -8° 100% 0mm 4.2m/s 4.2m/s 1.2m/s
08:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 96% 6.9°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ 2.6° 100% 0mm - - 1.3m/s
09:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 53% 7°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 87% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 100% 0mm - - 1.1m/s
10:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 36% 7°C 0% 82% 0% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 82% 0mm 4m/s 2.9m/s 1m/s
11:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 58% 6.5°C 0% 50% 0% 0mm 68% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 61% 0mm - - 0.9m/s
12:00
1011hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 63% 6°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 60% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 100% 0mm - - 1.1m/s
13:00
1010hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 27% 5.7°C 0% 89% 0% 0mm 58% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 89% 0mm 3.7m/s 3.8m/s 1.3m/s
14:00
1010hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 33% 5.3°C 0% 87% 0% 0mm 57% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 87% 0mm - - 1.6m/s
15:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 73% 5°C 0% 99% 0% 0mm 58% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 99% 0mm - - 1.7m/s
16:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 59% 4.7°C 0% 92% 0% 0mm 65% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 92% 0mm 3.6m/s 3.3m/s 1.6m/s
17:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 38% 4.5°C 0% 86% 0% 0mm 74% 0mm -20dBZ 2.5° 86% 0mm - - 1.3m/s
18:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 16% 5°C 0% 68% 0% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -8.3° 68% 0mm - - 1.1m/s
19:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 27% 5.7°C 0% 56% 0% 0mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -19° 56% 0mm 2.1m/s 3.4m/s 1.1m/s
20:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6% 6°C 0% 12% 0% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -31° 12% 0mm - - 1.6m/s
21:00
1010hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 14% 5.8°C 0% 33% 0% 0mm 83% 0mm -20dBZ -43° 33% 0mm - - 1.9m/s
22:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 5.5°C 0% 69% 0% 0mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -54° 69% 0mm 1.9m/s 1.5m/s 1.9m/s
23:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 5.4°C 0% 6% 0% 0mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 6% 0mm - - 2.1m/s
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 07:41 Sunset 17:17
24:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 12% 5°C 4% 26% 0% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 26% 0mm - - 2.1m/s
01:00
1008hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7% 4.9°C 3% 32% 0% 0mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ -72° 32% 0mm 1.9m/s 0.35m/s 2.3m/s
02:00
1008hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.9°C 0% 5% 0% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 5% 0mm - - 2.4m/s
03:00
1008hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.8°C 0% 62% 0% 0mm 88% 0mm -20dBZ -54° 62% 0mm - - 2.3m/s
04:00
1007hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.9°C 3% 90% 0% 0mm 89% 0mm -20dBZ -42° 90% 0mm 0.88m/s 3.1m/s 2.6m/s
05:00
1007hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 4% 4.9°C 3% 100% 0% 0mm 89% 0mm -20dBZ -31° 100% 0mm - - 2.7m/s
06:00
1007hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.9°C 6% 40% 0% 0mm 90% 0mm -20dBZ -19° 40% 0mm - - 2.8m/s
07:00
1007hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.9°C 12% 15% 0% 0mm 90% 0mm -20dBZ -8° 17% 0mm 0.69m/s 2.5m/s 2.8m/s
08:00
1007hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 3% 4.8°C 13% 6% 0% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ 2.7° 14% 0mm - - 2.8m/s
09:00
1007hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 3% 5°C 0% 6% 0% 0mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 6% 0mm - - 2.8m/s
10:00
1006hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 4% 5°C 2% 5% 0% 0mm 75% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 5% 0mm 1.6m/s 4.2m/s 2.7m/s
11:00
1006hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 5.2°C 2% 5% 0% 0mm 68% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 5% 0mm - - 2.7m/s
12:00
1005hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 5.2°C 1% 5% 0% 0mm 64% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 5% 0mm - - 3.1m/s
13:00
1004hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.9°C 1% 5% 0% 0mm 61% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 5% 0mm 0.98m/s 3.4m/s 3.3m/s
14:00
1003hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.7°C 3% 5% 0% 0mm 61% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 5% 0mm - - 3.2m/s
15:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.6°C 5% 5% 0% 0mm 60% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 5% 0mm - - 3m/s
16:00
1002hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.4°C 5% 5% 0% 0mm 64% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 5% 0mm 3.6m/s 5.6m/s 2.7m/s
17:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.6°C 11% 8% 0% 0mm 71% 0mm -20dBZ 2.6° 12% 0mm - - 2.6m/s
18:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 32% 4.9°C 12% 15% 0% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -8.2° 32% 0mm - - 2.6m/s
19:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 49% 5°C 5% 15% 0% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -19° 49% 0mm 4.8m/s 7.6m/s 3.2m/s
20:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 4.9°C 5% 62% 0% 0mm 83% 0mm -20dBZ -31° 100% 0mm - - 3.9m/s
21:00
1001hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.8°C 4% 77% 0% 0mm 82% 0mm -20dBZ -43° 77% 0mm - - 3.9m/s
22:00
1000hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.5°C 5% 4% 0% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -54° 5% 0mm 6.7m/s 9.9m/s 4m/s
23:00
1000hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.2°C 7% 4% 0% 0mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 7% 0mm - - 3.9m/s
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 07:40 Sunset 17:18
24:00
999hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 5°C 7% 4% 0% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -72° 7% 0mm - - 3.8m/s
01:00
998hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6% 5.2°C 15% 15% 0% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -72° 17% 0mm 6.4m/s 9.3m/s 3.8m/s
02:00
997hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 79% 5.3°C 9% 10% 17% 0mm 87% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 79% 0mm - - 4m/s
03:00
996hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 100% 4.9°C 26% 40% 33% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -54° 100% 0mm - - 4.4m/s
04:00
996hPa 8J/kg 0fraction 95% 4°C 34% 98% 50% 0mm 86% 0.01mm -20dBZ -42° 100% 0mm 6.2m/s 8.1m/s 4.7m/s
05:00
993hPa 5.3J/kg 0fraction 91% 3.5°C 31% 99% 44% 0mm 79% 0.007mm -13dBZ -31° 100% 0mm - - 5.9m/s
06:00
990hPa 2.7J/kg 0fraction 88% 3°C 28% 99% 38% 0mm 72% 0.003mm -6.7dBZ -19° 100% 0mm - - 7m/s
07:00
987hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 84% 2.5°C 25% 100% 33% 0mm 65% 0mm -0.03dBZ -7.9° 100% 0mm 7.5m/s 10m/s 8.1m/s
08:00
986hPa 13J/kg 0fraction 56% 2.7°C 50% 100% 51% 0.71mm 74% 0.13mm -6.7dBZ 2.8° 100% 1.9mm - - 7.5m/s
09:00
986hPa 27J/kg 0fraction 28% 3°C 75% 100% 70% 1.4mm 83% 0.25mm -13dBZ 12° 100% 3.8mm - - 6.9m/s
10:00
985hPa 40J/kg 0fraction 0% 3.3°C 100% 100% 88% 2.1mm 92% 0.38mm -20dBZ 20° 100% 5.6mm 5m/s 12m/s 6.3m/s
11:00
985hPa 27J/kg 0fraction 0% 3.4°C 77% 72% 86% 1.4mm 91% 0.25mm -19dBZ 26° 79% 4.3mm - - 6.3m/s
12:00
986hPa 13J/kg 0fraction 0% 3.6°C 54% 44% 83% 0.71mm 89% 0.13mm -18dBZ 29° 58% 3mm - - 6.3m/s
13:00
986hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 3.8°C 32% 16% 80% 0mm 88% 0mm -17dBZ 29° 37% 1.8mm 6.8m/s 7.2m/s 6.2m/s
14:00
986hPa 3J/kg 0.05fraction 0% 3.2°C 25% 11% 84% 0.02mm 86% 0.003mm -0.92dBZ 26° 28% 1.8mm - - 6.8m/s
15:00
985hPa 6J/kg 0.1fraction 0% 2.5°C 18% 7% 87% 0.05mm 83% 0.007mm 15dBZ 20° 20% 1.9mm - - 7.4m/s
16:00
985hPa 9J/kg 0.15fraction 0% 1.9°C 11% 2% 90% 0.07mm 81% 0.01mm 32dBZ 12° 11% 1.9mm 6.1m/s 19m/s 8m/s
17:00
986hPa 7.3J/kg 0.1fraction 0% 3.8°C 27% 1% 73% 0.06mm 78% 0.01mm 15dBZ 2.7° 27% 1.4mm - - 7.8m/s
18:00
987hPa 5.7J/kg 0.05fraction 0% 5.7°C 43% 1% 55% 0.04mm 75% 0.01mm -2.7dBZ -8.1° 43% 0.9mm - - 7.6m/s
19:00
988hPa 4J/kg 0.003fraction 0% 7.5°C 59% 0% 37% 0.03mm 72% 0.01mm -20dBZ -19° 59% 0.38mm 5.4m/s 18m/s 7.4m/s
20:00
988hPa 3.3J/kg 0.04fraction 0% 7.8°C 72% 1% 48% 0.02mm 68% 0.007mm -20dBZ -31° 72% 0.54mm - - 6.6m/s
21:00
989hPa 2.7J/kg 0.08fraction 0% 8°C 86% 2% 58% 0.02mm 65% 0.003mm -20dBZ -43° 86% 0.71mm - - 5.9m/s
22:00
990hPa 2J/kg 0.12fraction 0% 8.2°C 100% 2% 68% 0.01mm 61% 0mm -20dBZ -54° 100% 0.88mm 12m/s 10m/s 5.1m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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