Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Lorne, Australian Coast

Lorne, Victoria, Australia

Lorne sits where forested Otway slopes reach the ocean, combining a curving beach, rocky points, waterfalls, and elevated Great Ocean Road views.

Currently

Real-time conditions

Storm Intensity

CAPE0

Lifted Index12.4°C

Wind Gusts2.5m/s

Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne

Next opportunity

Weak Storm at Sunrise

Lorne

Tue, Aug 25 · 07:00–08:00 · 1h window

Low confidence

37%

⛈️Storm Intensity41%

CAPE: 4

Lifted Index: 2.8°C

Wind Gusts: 3.7m/s

Precipitation: 4.1mm

Weak Storm

Lorne

Tue, Aug 25 · 09:00–11:00

⛈️Storm Intensity:40-48%

Low

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Lorne.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Lorne during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days

recorded matching windows · 52% average confidence

Last 90 days

recorded matching windows · 52% average confidence

Last 365 days

recorded matching windows · 52% average confidence

Most frequent recorded start hour

16:00 local time, shared by 2 of 13 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

August, with 9 of 13 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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85-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 85-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour

3matching hours in the next 85 hoursJump to next match

AND logic: all conditions required

Meets requirement

Misses requirement

Time Australia/Melbourne	Storm Intensity ≥ 40.0%
Sat, Aug 22
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%
21:00	0%
22:00	0%
23:00	0%
Sun, Aug 23
24:00	0%
01:00	0%
02:00	0%
03:00	0%
04:00	0%
05:00	0%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	0%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	0%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%
16:00	0%
17:00	0%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%
21:00	0%
22:00	0%
23:00	0%
Mon, Aug 24
24:00	0%
01:00	11%
02:00	0%
03:00	0%
04:00	0%
05:00	0%
06:00	0%
07:00	0%
08:00	0%
09:00	0%
10:00	11%
11:00	0%
12:00	0%
13:00	13%
14:00	0%
15:00	17%
16:00	25%
17:00	18%
18:00	23%
19:00	24%
20:00	21%
21:00	21%
22:00	27%
23:00	20%
Tue, Aug 25
24:00	21%
01:00	30%
02:00	23%
03:00	21%
04:00	31%
05:00	17%
06:00	24%
07:00	41%
08:00	37%
09:00	40%
10:00	48%
11:00	25%
12:00	24%
13:00	16%
14:00	0%
15:00	0%
16:00	19%
17:00	17%
18:00	0%
19:00	0%
20:00	0%
21:00	0%
22:00	0%
23:00	0%
Wed, Aug 26
24:00	0%
01:00	0%
02:00	0%
03:00	0%

How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time Australia/Melbourne	Air Pressure hPa	CAPE J/kg	Convective Precip Fraction fraction	Lifted Index °C	Precipitation Chance %	Rainfall mm	Showers mm	Simulated Reflectivity dBZ	Total Precipitation mm	Visibility m	Wind Gusts m/s	Wind Shear 0-3 km m/s	Wind Shear 0-6 km m/s	Wind Speed m/s
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 07:01 Sunset 17:53
05:00 ☾	1007hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	12°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	2.5m/s	-	-	2.2m/s
06:00 ☾	1008hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	12°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	2.9m/s	-	-	2.5m/s
07:00 ☾	1008hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	12°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	2.9m/s	2.7m/s	7.7m/s	2.6m/s
08:00 ☾	1008hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	12°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	3m/s	-	-	2.3m/s
09:00 ☾	1008hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	11°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	3.1m/s	-	-	2.3m/s
10:00	1008hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	11°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.2m/s	2.7m/s	4.7m/s	2.4m/s
11:00	1007hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	11°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.4m/s	-	-	2.4m/s
12:00	1007hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	10°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	4.6m/s	-	-	2.5m/s
13:00	1006hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	9.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	5m/s	4.3m/s	5.2m/s	2.5m/s
14:00	1005hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	8.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.3m/s	-	-	2.5m/s
15:00	1005hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	8.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5.1m/s	-	-	2.1m/s
16:00	1004hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5.3m/s	5.4m/s	6.9m/s	2m/s
17:00	1004hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	5m/s	-	-	1.5m/s
18:00 ☾	1004hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.1°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	0.93m/s	-	-	0.9m/s
19:00 ☾	1005hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	1m/s	6m/s	8.3m/s	0.98m/s
20:00 ☾	1005hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.6°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	24134m	0.82m/s	-	-	0.79m/s
21:00 ☾	1005hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-9.2dBZ	0mm	24135m	2.2m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
22:00 ☾	1005hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.8°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-3.8dBZ	0mm	24135m	8m/s	2.7m/s	9.3m/s	2.4m/s
23:00 ☾	1005hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.4°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-9.2dBZ	0mm	24135m	10m/s	-	-	2.9m/s
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 07:00 Sunset 17:54
24:00 ☾	1004hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.7°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	2.9m/s
01:00 ☾	1004hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.9°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	12m/s	2.7m/s	11m/s	2.9m/s
02:00 ☾	1004hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	24135m	11m/s	-	-	2.6m/s
03:00 ☾	1003hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-9.7dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.7m/s	-	-	2.6m/s
04:00 ☾	1003hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.3°C	0%	0mm	0mm	-4.6dBZ	0mm	24135m	8.9m/s	0.61m/s	8.8m/s	2.9m/s
05:00 ☾	1002hPa	3J/kg	0fraction	4.8°C	4%	0mm	0mm	-6.9dBZ	0mm	24134m	9.1m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
06:00 ☾	1003hPa	4J/kg	0fraction	5°C	9%	0mm	0mm	-9.2dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.7m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
07:00 ☾	1003hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.4°C	13%	0mm	0mm	-11dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.3m/s	2.2m/s	9.3m/s	2.7m/s
08:00 ☾	1004hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	4.6°C	28%	0mm	0mm	-14dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	3.1m/s
09:00 ☾	1003hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	5.1°C	42%	0mm	0mm	-17dBZ	0mm	24134m	11m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
10:00	1003hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.7°C	56%	0mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24134m	8.1m/s	0.98m/s	11m/s	3.9m/s
11:00	1003hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	7.1°C	54%	0mm	0mm	-15dBZ	0mm	24134m	8m/s	-	-	4m/s
12:00	1002hPa	0J/kg	0fraction	6.9°C	52%	0mm	0mm	-10dBZ	0mm	24134m	7.2m/s	-	-	3.6m/s
13:00	1001hPa	9J/kg	0fraction	6.5°C	49%	0mm	0mm	-5.1dBZ	0mm	24135m	6.4m/s	4.4m/s	16m/s	3.2m/s
14:00	1000hPa	17J/kg	0.33fraction	6.2°C	58%	0mm	0mm	-6dBZ	0mm	24134m	5.4m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
15:00	1000hPa	44J/kg	0.67fraction	5.9°C	67%	0mm	0.1mm	-6.9dBZ	0.06mm	22203m	5.1m/s	-	-	2.5m/s
16:00	1000hPa	56J/kg	1fraction	6.6°C	76%	0mm	0.13mm	-7.8dBZ	0.25mm	22785m	5m/s	4.7m/s	17m/s	2.1m/s
17:00	1000hPa	69J/kg	0.98fraction	6.9°C	73%	0mm	0mm	0.82dBZ	0.13mm	24134m	3.3m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
18:00 ☾	1000hPa	62J/kg	0.96fraction	6.7°C	70%	0mm	0.67mm	9.4dBZ	0.44mm	11093m	2.1m/s	-	-	2m/s
19:00 ☾	1001hPa	67J/kg	0.94fraction	7.1°C	66%	0mm	0.36mm	18dBZ	0.69mm	20922m	1.9m/s	2.8m/s	17m/s	1.9m/s
20:00 ☾	1001hPa	40J/kg	0.62fraction	6.2°C	75%	0.01mm	0.1mm	14dBZ	1.3mm	24101m	1.9m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
21:00 ☾	1000hPa	32J/kg	0.31fraction	6.5°C	83%	0mm	0.21mm	10dBZ	1.4mm	20629m	1.6m/s	-	-	1.6m/s
22:00 ☾	1000hPa	32J/kg	0fraction	6.8°C	91%	0mm	0.16mm	6dBZ	1.6mm	24134m	1.2m/s	11m/s	14m/s	1.2m/s
23:00 ☾	999hPa	42J/kg	0.33fraction	6°C	92%	0mm	0.11mm	11dBZ	0.38mm	22763m	1.6m/s	-	-	1.4m/s
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:58 Sunset 17:54
24:00 ☾	998hPa	46J/kg	0.67fraction	4°C	92%	0mm	0mm	16dBZ	0.5mm	24135m	0.73m/s	-	-	0.61m/s
01:00 ☾	998hPa	13J/kg	1fraction	4.6°C	93%	0.1mm	0.01mm	21dBZ	0.5mm	24134m	3.2m/s	12m/s	12m/s	1.6m/s
02:00 ☾	998hPa	0J/kg	0.67fraction	5.6°C	94%	0.06mm	0mm	22dBZ	0.69mm	24135m	2.2m/s	-	-	1.7m/s
03:00 ☾	997hPa	15J/kg	0.33fraction	5.8°C	96%	0.39mm	0mm	24dBZ	0.81mm	24134m	2.7m/s	-	-	2.1m/s
04:00 ☾	997hPa	2J/kg	0fraction	4.6°C	97%	1mm	0mm	26dBZ	1.6mm	11410m	1.2m/s	15m/s	19m/s	0.99m/s
05:00 ☾	996hPa	12J/kg	0fraction	3.7°C	87%	0.61mm	0mm	26dBZ	0.69mm	15264m	1.7m/s	-	-	0.77m/s
06:00 ☾	996hPa	10J/kg	0.01fraction	2.9°C	76%	1.8mm	0mm	27dBZ	2.1mm	5376m	2.3m/s	-	-	1.1m/s
07:00 ☾	996hPa	4J/kg	0.01fraction	2.8°C	66%	2.4mm	0.03mm	28dBZ	4.1mm	938m	3.7m/s	16m/s	18m/s	1.7m/s
08:00 ☾	997hPa	3J/kg	0.01fraction	2.4°C	72%	0.51mm	0.03mm	26dBZ	5.1mm	578m	3.5m/s	-	-	1.8m/s
09:00 ☾	997hPa	5J/kg	0.01fraction	1.7°C	77%	0.4mm	0.04mm	25dBZ	5.6mm	409m	3.5m/s	-	-	1.9m/s
10:00	996hPa	12J/kg	0.01fraction	2.5°C	83%	3.7mm	0.06mm	23dBZ	7.4mm	350m	2.8m/s	12m/s	19m/s	1.7m/s
11:00	997hPa	10J/kg	0.02fraction	3.3°C	74%	2.5mm	0.04mm	18dBZ	5mm	8278m	4.3m/s	-	-	2.2m/s
12:00	998hPa	8.7J/kg	0.02fraction	4.1°C	65%	1.3mm	0.03mm	12dBZ	2.6mm	16206m	5.8m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
13:00	998hPa	7J/kg	0.02fraction	4.9°C	56%	0.03mm	0.01mm	6.9dBZ	0.19mm	24135m	7.3m/s	11m/s	16m/s	3.3m/s
14:00	999hPa	4.7J/kg	0.19fraction	6.4°C	56%	0.02mm	0.007mm	9.7dBZ	0.21mm	24135m	7.6m/s	-	-	3.1m/s
15:00	1000hPa	2.3J/kg	0.35fraction	7.9°C	56%	0.01mm	0.003mm	12dBZ	0.23mm	24135m	7.8m/s	-	-	2.8m/s
16:00	1001hPa	0J/kg	0.51fraction	9.4°C	56%	0mm	0mm	15dBZ	0.25mm	24135m	8m/s	4.3m/s	7.5m/s	2.6m/s
17:00	1001hPa	0J/kg	0.43fraction	9.8°C	37%	0mm	0mm	14dBZ	0.17mm	24135m	8m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
18:00 ☾	1002hPa	0J/kg	0.35fraction	10°C	19%	0mm	0mm	13dBZ	0.08mm	24135m	7.9m/s	-	-	2.7m/s
19:00 ☾	1002hPa	0J/kg	0.27fraction	11°C	0%	0mm	0mm	12dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.8m/s	3.5m/s	8.5m/s	2.8m/s
20:00 ☾	1003hPa	1.3J/kg	0.19fraction	11°C	13%	0.003mm	0mm	1.2dBZ	0mm	24135m	8.1m/s	-	-	3.1m/s
21:00 ☾	1003hPa	2.7J/kg	0.11fraction	11°C	26%	0.007mm	0mm	-9.4dBZ	0mm	24135m	8.3m/s	-	-	3.4m/s
22:00 ☾	1003hPa	4J/kg	0.02fraction	11°C	39%	0.01mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	8.5m/s	2.5m/s	5.8m/s	3.8m/s
23:00 ☾	1004hPa	4J/kg	0.02fraction	11°C	26%	0.01mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	8.2m/s	-	-	3.4m/s
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:57 Sunset 17:55
24:00 ☾	1004hPa	4J/kg	0.01fraction	11°C	13%	0.01mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.9m/s	-	-	3m/s
01:00 ☾	1005hPa	4J/kg	0fraction	10°C	0%	0.01mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0mm	24135m	7.6m/s	3.8m/s	8.7m/s	2.7m/s
02:00 ☾	1005hPa	3.3J/kg	0fraction	11°C	13%	0.007mm	0mm	-20dBZ	0.02mm	24135m	7.2m/s	-	-	3m/s
03:00 ☾	1006hPa	2.7J/kg	0fraction	11°C	26%	0.003mm	0mm	-19dBZ	0.04mm	24135m	6.7m/s	-	-	3.3m/s
04:00 ☾	1006hPa	2J/kg	0fraction	11°C	39%	0mm	0mm	-19dBZ	0.06mm	24135m	6.2m/s	4.2m/s	7.4m/s	3.6m/s

How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

Forecast generated

Aug 22, 2026, 6:55 PM UTC

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