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Rule Fire Sky

Fire Sky Forecast for Lorne, Australian Coast

Lorne, Victoria, Australia

Lorne sits where forested Otway slopes reach the ocean, combining a curving beach, rocky points, waterfalls, and elevated Great Ocean Road views.

1 matching opportunities in the 14-day forecast.

Hourly forecast scores

Forecast valid from Oct 7, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC (one hour; not an observation)
Fiery Red Sky Potential
0%
Low Cloud Cover0%
Mid Cloud Cover0%
High Cloud Cover0%
Aerosol Optical Depth0.0
Sun Elevation35.8°

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne
fire-sky weather icon
First upcoming window
Excellent Fiery Red Sky at Sunrise
Lorne
Fri, Oct 9 · 07:00–07:22 · 1h window
Medium confidence
63%
🔥Fiery Red Sky Potential74.9%
Low Cloud Cover: 0%
Mid Cloud Cover: 0%
High Cloud Cover: 90%
Aerosol Optical Depth: 0.1

71-hour requirements breakdown

When available, this detailed table covers only the stated 71-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the full 14-day forecast period, so this table does not explain that entire period. Times shown in Australia/Melbourne.

Requirements breakdown is temporarily unavailable or expired. This does not mean no opportunities.

Supporting forecast inputs

Additional hourly values for interpreting the forecast and any derived scores. See the separate requirements breakdown for rule logic; missing values are unavailable.

Forecast time (Australia/Melbourne)Aerosol Optical Depth (550nm)Clear Sky Probability (Ensemble)Cloud Cover Uncertainty (Ensemble)Dust AOD (550nm)Golden HourHigh CloudsLow CloudsMid-Level CloudsRH @ 700 hPaSmoke AOD (550nm)Solar ElevationSunshine Duration
Thu, Oct 8, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
0.0397%6%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%11%0.00736°3600seconds
0.03100%5%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%9.4%0.00746°3600seconds
0.0499%6%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%8.4%0.00853°3600seconds
0.0499%7%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%7.4%0.00957°3600seconds
0.0498%8%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%6.4%0.00956°3600seconds
0.0487%12%0.002Unavailable0%0%0%5.9%0.0149°3600seconds
0.0475%17%0.002Unavailable4%0%0%5.5%0.00940°3600seconds
0.0464%21%0.002Unavailable81%0%0%5%0.00929°3600seconds
0.0359%22%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%4.4%0.00918°3600seconds
0.0353%22%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%3.8%0.0086.1°3600seconds
Night0.0348%23%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%3.2%0.008-5.6°1438seconds
Night0.0353%20%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%3.1%0.009-17°0seconds
Night0.0357%18%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%3%0.009-27°0seconds
Night0.0462%15%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%2.9%0.009-36°0seconds
Fri, Oct 9, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
Night0.0457%20%0.001Unavailable0%0%0%2.8%0.01-42°0seconds
Night0.0452%26%0.001Unavailable2%0%0%2.6%0.01-45°0seconds
Night0.0447%31%0.001Unavailable2%0%0%2.5%0.01-44°0seconds
Night0.0537%27%0.001Unavailable3%0%0%2.6%0.01-39°0seconds
Night0.0527%24%0.001Unavailable9%0%0%2.6%0.01-31°0seconds
Night0.0517%20%0.001Unavailable4%0%0%2.7%0.01-21°0seconds
Night0.0511%15%0.002Unavailable83%0%0%2.9%0.01-9.9°0seconds
0.066%9%0.002Unavailable90%0%0%3%0.011.9°0seconds
0.060%4%0.002Unavailable91%0%0%3.2%0.0113°3600seconds
0.050%5%0.004Unavailable42%0%0%3.3%0.0125°3600seconds
0.060%6%0.006Unavailable41%0%0%3.3%0.0136°3600seconds
0.070%7%0.006Unavailable58%0%0%3.4%0.0246°3600seconds
0.082%11%0.008Unavailable95%0%0%4.4%0.0254°3600seconds
0.093%16%0.009Unavailable52%0%0%5.3%0.0258°3600seconds
0.15%20%0.01Unavailable94%0%0%6.3%0.0256°3600seconds
0.14%18%0.01Unavailable97%0%45%12%0.0249°3600seconds
0.112%17%0.01Unavailable98%0%76%18%0.0240°3600seconds
0.111%15%0.02Unavailable100%0%71%23%0.0129°2933seconds
0.111%12%0.03Unavailable98%0%55%41%0.0118°3294seconds
0.120%10%0.03Unavailable99%0%80%59%0.016.3°0seconds
Night0.110%7%0.03Unavailable100%0%100%77%0.01-5.4°0seconds
Night0.090%6%0.02Unavailable99%0%96%82%0.01-17°0seconds
Night0.070%4%0.01Unavailable99%0%100%87%0.01-27°0seconds
Night0.090%3%0.006Unavailable99%1%98%93%0.01-36°0seconds
Sat, Oct 10, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
NightUnavailable1%8%UnavailableUnavailable61%0%98%95%Unavailable-42°0seconds
NightUnavailable1%12%UnavailableUnavailable58%11%99%97%Unavailable-45°0seconds
NightUnavailable2%17%UnavailableUnavailable0%100%41%100%Unavailable-44°0seconds
NightUnavailable2%17%UnavailableUnavailable0%100%6%68%Unavailable-38°0seconds
NightUnavailable2%18%UnavailableUnavailable0%96%3%37%Unavailable-30°0seconds
NightUnavailable2%18%UnavailableUnavailable0%85%2%5.8%Unavailable-21°0seconds
NightUnavailable21%21%UnavailableUnavailable0%100%1%9%Unavailable-9.6°0seconds
Unavailable40%24%UnavailableUnavailable0%100%2%12%Unavailable2.1°0seconds
Unavailable59%27%UnavailableUnavailable0%79%3%15%Unavailable14°2905seconds
Unavailable58%25%UnavailableUnavailable0%17%0%13%Unavailable25°3600seconds
Unavailable57%22%UnavailableUnavailable0%40%1%11%Unavailable36°3600seconds
Unavailable56%20%UnavailableUnavailable0%67%0%9.5%Unavailable46°3600seconds
Unavailable46%23%UnavailableUnavailable0%100%0%7.6%Unavailable54°3600seconds
Unavailable36%27%UnavailableUnavailable0%70%2%5.6%Unavailable58°825seconds
Unavailable26%30%UnavailableUnavailable0%94%27%3.7%Unavailable56°3600seconds
Unavailable19%27%UnavailableUnavailable0%53%91%4%Unavailable50°3600seconds
Unavailable13%25%UnavailableUnavailable0%66%82%4.3%Unavailable40°2472seconds
Unavailable6%22%UnavailableUnavailable0%86%100%4.6%Unavailable30°3600seconds
Unavailable6%22%UnavailableUnavailable0%14%91%5.3%Unavailable18°802seconds
Unavailable5%23%UnavailableUnavailable0%30%38%6.1%Unavailable6.5°3600seconds
NightUnavailable5%23%UnavailableUnavailable0%6%23%6.8%Unavailable-5.2°499seconds
NightUnavailable6%23%UnavailableUnavailable0%20%26%9.2%Unavailable-16°0seconds
NightUnavailable8%23%UnavailableUnavailable0%18%12%12%Unavailable-27°0seconds
NightUnavailable9%23%UnavailableUnavailable0%10%5%14%Unavailable-35°0seconds
Sun, Oct 11, 2026Sunrise · Sunset
NightUnavailable23%25%UnavailableUnavailable0%7%4%15%Unavailable-42°0seconds
NightUnavailable36%27%UnavailableUnavailable0%13%2%16%Unavailable-45°0seconds
NightUnavailable50%29%UnavailableUnavailable0%12%1%18%Unavailable-43°0seconds
NightUnavailable52%28%UnavailableUnavailable0%17%1%18%Unavailable-38°0seconds
NightUnavailable55%28%UnavailableUnavailable0%23%1%18%Unavailable-30°0seconds
NightUnavailable57%27%UnavailableUnavailable0%42%0%18%Unavailable-20°0seconds
NightUnavailable60%28%UnavailableUnavailable0%53%2%19%Unavailable-9.3°0seconds
Unavailable64%28%UnavailableUnavailable0%55%2%20%Unavailable2.4°0seconds
Unavailable67%29%UnavailableUnavailable0%10%1%21%Unavailable14°3600seconds
Unavailable68%27%UnavailableUnavailable0%10%0%19%Unavailable26°3600seconds

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Fire Sky conditions across Australian Coast. The requirements and hourly values above show how those signals apply at Lorne.

Explore Fire Sky conditions across Australian Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Lorne during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days
14
recorded matching windows · 73% average confidence
Last 90 days
32
recorded matching windows · 70% average confidence
Last 365 days
68
recorded matching windows · 70% average confidence
Most frequent recorded start hour

07:00 local time, shared by 26 of 68 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

Most represented month

September, with 16 of 68 matches recorded in the last 365 days.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →

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