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Rule Storm Chaser

Geelong - Storm Chaser - Australian Coast

Geelong, Victoria, Australia

Dramatic storm conditions — from atmospheric builds to active thunderstorms

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Storm Chaser opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Storm Intensity · ≥ 55.0% Cloud Drama Score · ≥ 55.0% CAPE · ≥ 1200.0J/kg Lifted Index · ≤ -2.0°C

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Storm Intensity 100% failing
CAPE 100% failing
Cloud Drama Score 83% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Cloud Cover100%
Wind Gusts0.4m/s
Precipitation Chance0%
Air Pressure1022.6hPa
CAPE0
Lifted Index7.2°C
Wind Gusts0.4m/s
Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the dramatic storm systems that bring lightning, massive swells, and atmospheric drama to Australia's eastern coastline. We monitor low-pressure systems, lightning activity, and wave heights to predict when Southern Ocean storms will create spectacular—but safe—photography conditions.

Australia's east coast faces the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean, which generate powerful weather systems year-round. These storms bring towering seas that crash against coastal cliffs, creating explosions of spray. Lightning storms, particularly during summer, offer opportunities for long-exposure captures over harbors and beaches. Winter storms bring the largest swells and most dramatic cloud formations.

What makes Australian coastal storms exceptional:

  • Southern Ocean swells - Winter low-pressure systems generate massive groundswells that pound Victoria and southern NSW
  • Wollongong sea cliffs - Dramatic headlands where storm waves explode against cliffs in spectacular displays
  • Byron Bay lightning - Subtropical storms bring frequent lightning over the iconic lighthouse and beaches
  • Sydney storm drama - The harbour becomes wild during southerly busters and east coast lows

Best storm photography occurs during winter (June-August) when Southern Ocean low-pressure systems bring large swells and dramatic skies. Summer thunderstorms (November-February) offer lightning opportunities over coastal icons. East coast lows—intense low-pressure systems—create the most extreme conditions but pose significant safety risks. Our forecast helps identify approaching storms so you can position safely with proper conditions. Never stand on exposed rocks during large swells.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
OR logic: one branch per group is enough
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Australia/Melbourne
Storm Intensity
≥ 55.0%
Cloud Drama Score
≥ 55.0%
CAPE
OR1·B1
≥ 1200.0J/kg
Lifted Index
OR1·B2
≤ -2.0°C
Visibility
≥ 2500.0m
Wind Gusts
≤ 22.0m/s
Tue, Jul 7
23:000%13%0J/kg6.5°C24135m0.8m/s
Wed, Jul 8
24:000%15%0J/kg6.8°C24135m0.73m/s
01:000%12%0J/kg6.8°C24135m0.74m/s
02:000%13%0J/kg7.1°C24135m1m/s
03:000%13%0J/kg7.3°C24135m0.83m/s
04:000%5.4%0J/kg7.7°C24135m0.92m/s
05:000%2.6%0J/kg8°C24135m0.82m/s
06:000%1.6%0J/kg8.2°C24134m0.61m/s
07:000%13%0J/kg8.2°C24135m0.62m/s
08:000%11%0J/kg8.3°C24135m0.62m/s
09:000%12%0J/kg8.6°C24135m0.9m/s
10:000%17%0J/kg8.9°C24134m1.8m/s
11:000%38%0J/kg8.1°C24134m2.7m/s
12:000%54%0J/kg7.4°C24135m2.4m/s
13:000%37%0J/kg7.1°C24135m2m/s
14:000%18%0J/kg6.8°C24135m1.8m/s
15:000%18%0J/kg7.1°C24134m1.9m/s
16:000%23%0J/kg7.7°C24135m2.5m/s
17:000%27%0J/kg8°C24134m1.9m/s
18:000%62%0J/kg7.8°C24135m1.4m/s
19:000%15%0J/kg7.6°C24134m1.2m/s
20:000%14%0J/kg7.4°C24134m0.8m/s
21:000%10%0J/kg7.3°C24134m0.43m/s
22:000%2.9%0J/kg7.3°C24134m0.2m/s
23:000%4.7%0J/kg7.2°C24134m0.41m/s
Thu, Jul 9
24:000%3.5%0J/kg7.2°C24135m0.62m/s
01:000%5.5%0J/kg7.3°C24135m0.51m/s
02:000%2.8%0J/kg7.3°C24135m0.4m/s
03:000%0%0J/kg7.4°C24135m0.4m/s
04:000%0%0J/kg7.6°C24134m0.51m/s
05:000%0%0J/kg7.6°C24134m0.5m/s
06:000%0%0J/kg7.7°C24134m0.73m/s
07:000%39%0J/kg7.7°C24135m0.71m/s
08:000%60%0J/kg7.6°C24134m0.81m/s
09:000%66%0J/kg7.5°C24134m0.91m/s
10:000%63%0J/kg7.3°C24135m1.3m/s
11:000%55%0J/kg7.1°C24135m1.3m/s
12:000%47%0J/kg6.3°C24135m1.4m/s
13:000%49%0J/kg5.4°C24134m1.8m/s
14:000%37%0J/kg5.1°C24134m1.6m/s
15:000%41%0J/kg4.7°C24134m1.5m/s
16:000%71%0J/kg4.8°C24135m2.2m/s
17:000%91%0J/kg5.4°C24135m1.4m/s
18:000%52%0J/kg6.2°C24134m1.2m/s
19:000%9.3%0J/kg6.2°C24135m0.7m/s
20:000%15%0J/kg6°C24134m0.6m/s
21:000%10%0J/kg5.8°C24135m0.74m/s
22:000%6.3%0J/kg5.5°C24135m0.81m/s
23:000%15%0J/kg5.2°C24134m0.92m/s
Fri, Jul 10
24:000%12%0J/kg4.8°C24135m1.1m/s
01:000%9.7%0J/kg4.6°C24135m1.2m/s
02:000%15%0J/kg4.6°C24134m1.3m/s
03:000%13%0J/kg4.7°C24135m1.4m/s
04:000%9.1%0J/kg4.9°C24135m1.4m/s
05:000%7.9%0J/kg5.1°C24134m1.4m/s
06:000%9.6%0J/kg5.3°C24135m1.4m/s
07:000%61%0J/kg5.4°C24135m1.4m/s
08:000%19%0J/kg5.4°C24135m1.5m/s
09:000%26%0J/kg5.4°C24135m4.3m/s
10:000%22%0J/kg5.5°C24135m4.5m/s
11:000%19%0J/kg5.7°C24135m4.3m/s
12:000%14%0J/kg5.3°C24135m4.4m/s
13:000%8.4%0J/kg4.8°C24134m4.3m/s
14:000%13%0J/kg4.7°C24135m4.8m/s
15:000%20%0J/kg5°C24134m5.2m/s
16:000%25%0J/kg4.5°C24135m5.6m/s
17:000%23%0J/kg4.8°C24134m2.3m/s
18:000%31%0J/kg4.7°C24134m5.2m/s
19:000%10%0J/kg5.1°C24135m8.8m/s
20:000%12%0J/kg5.1°C24134m7.2m/s
21:000%12%0J/kg5.1°C24134m4.5m/s
22:000%15%0J/kg5.1°C24134m3.1m/s
23:000%11%0J/kg4.6°C24135m2.5m/s
Sat, Jul 11
24:000%14%0J/kg4.8°C24134m1.6m/s
01:000%15%0J/kg5.4°C24134m1.6m/s
02:000%14%4J/kg5.2°C24135m1.2m/s
03:000%13%6J/kg5°C24135m4.4m/s
04:000%11%4J/kg4.8°C24135m11m/s
05:0013%0%2.7J/kg4.3°C24135m13m/s
06:0013%0%1.3J/kg3.7°C24135m16m/s
07:0016%52%0J/kg3.2°C24135m18m/s
08:0016%60%9.3J/kg2.8°C19417m18m/s
09:0031%82%19J/kg2.4°C14698m18m/s
10:0047%57%28J/kg2.1°C9980m17m/s
11:0045%51%19J/kg3.1°C14698m16m/s
12:0032%51%9.3J/kg4.2°C19417m15m/s
13:0045%51%0J/kg5.3°C24135m14m/s
14:0040%76%0J/kg4.2°C24135m15m/s
15:0045%90%0J/kg3.2°C24135m17m/s
16:0052%53%0J/kg2.1°C24135m19m/s
17:0040%53%11J/kg3.7°C23844m18m/s
18:0034%53%21J/kg5.3°C23552m18m/s
19:0037%0%32J/kg6.8°C23261m17m/s
20:0018%0%21J/kg7.4°C23552m16m/s
21:0014%0%11J/kg7.9°C23844m15m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity). For OR groups, only one branch is required, so some OR-branch predicates can be ✕ even in a matching hour.

What does Cloud Drama Score mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Australia/Melbourne
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
Convective Precip Fraction
fraction
High Clouds
%
Lifted Index
°C
Low Clouds
%
Mid-Level Clouds
%
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Relative Humidity
%
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Solar Elevation
°
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Total Precipitation
mm
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Wed, Jul 8 Sunrise 07:38 Sunset 17:16
23:00
1023hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 92% 7.2°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 93% 0mm -20dBZ -66° 100% 0mm - - 0.48m/s
Thu, Jul 9 Sunrise 07:38 Sunset 17:16
24:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 28% 7.2°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 93% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 100% 0mm - - 0.63m/s
01:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 48% 7.3°C 1% 100% 0% 0mm 93% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 100% 0mm 2.6m/s 2.6m/s 0.48m/s
02:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 94% 7.3°C 1% 100% 0% 0mm 92% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 100% 0mm - - 0.36m/s
03:00
1021hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 7.4°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 92% 0mm -20dBZ -54° 100% 0mm - - 0.41m/s
04:00
1021hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 7.6°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 92% 0mm -20dBZ -42° 100% 0mm 2.7m/s 3m/s 0.51m/s
05:00
1021hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 7.6°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 92% 0mm -20dBZ -30° 100% 0mm - - 0.6m/s
06:00
1021hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 7.7°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ -19° 100% 0mm - - 0.8m/s
07:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 7.7°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ -7.6° 100% 0mm 2m/s 2.1m/s 0.81m/s
08:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 48% 7.6°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ 3.1° 100% 0mm - - 0.77m/s
09:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 27% 7.5°C 0% 86% 0% 0mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 86% 0mm - - 0.67m/s
10:00
1022hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 41% 7.3°C 0% 89% 0% 0mm 76% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 89% 0mm 1.9m/s 1.9m/s 0.96m/s
11:00
1021hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 24% 7.1°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 69% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 100% 0mm - - 1.2m/s
12:00
1021hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 43% 6.3°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 64% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 100% 0mm - - 1.3m/s
13:00
1020hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 49% 5.4°C 0% 100% 0% 0mm 61% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 100% 0mm 2.2m/s 3.2m/s 1.7m/s
14:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 76% 5.1°C 0% 94% 0% 0mm 60% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 94% 0mm - - 1.7m/s
15:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 4.7°C 0% 99% 0% 0mm 61% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 100% 0mm - - 1.6m/s
16:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 72% 4.8°C 0% 78% 0% 0mm 70% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 78% 0mm 1.6m/s 3m/s 1.5m/s
17:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 40% 5.4°C 0% 77% 0% 0mm 81% 0mm -20dBZ 2.4° 77% 0mm - - 1.5m/s
18:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 6.2°C 0% 78% 0% 0mm 87% 0mm -20dBZ -8.4° 78% 0mm - - 1.2m/s
19:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 6.2°C 0% 58% 0% 0mm 87% 0mm -20dBZ -20° 58% 0mm 1.1m/s 1.9m/s 0.75m/s
20:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 7% 6°C 0% 28% 0% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -31° 28% 0mm - - 0.6m/s
21:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 8% 5.8°C 0% 54% 0% 0mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ -43° 54% 0mm - - 0.71m/s
22:00
1019hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 5.5°C 0% 77% 0% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -55° 77% 0mm 1.8m/s 2.5m/s 0.78m/s
23:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 5.2°C 0% 10% 0% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 10% 0mm - - 0.94m/s
Fri, Jul 10 Sunrise 07:38 Sunset 17:17
24:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 29% 4.8°C 4% 85% 0% 0mm 86% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 85% 0mm - - 1.1m/s
01:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 27% 4.6°C 2% 70% 0% 0mm 88% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 70% 0mm 2.7m/s 2.3m/s 1.3m/s
02:00
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6% 4.6°C 0% 38% 0% 0mm 90% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 38% 0mm - - 1.4m/s
03:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.7°C 0% 86% 0% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ -54° 86% 0mm - - 1.4m/s
04:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.9°C 0% 56% 0% 0mm 92% 0mm -20dBZ -42° 56% 0mm 1.7m/s 1.8m/s 1.6m/s
05:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 5.1°C 0% 90% 0% 0mm 92% 0mm -20dBZ -30° 90% 0mm - - 1.5m/s
06:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 3% 5.3°C 0% 94% 0% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ -19° 94% 0mm - - 1.5m/s
07:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 4% 5.4°C 0% 34% 0% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ -7.6° 34% 0mm 1.3m/s 2.5m/s 1.6m/s
08:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 2% 5.4°C 0% 5% 0% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ 3.1° 5% 0mm - - 1.6m/s
09:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 1% 5.4°C 0% 6% 0% 0mm 83% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 6% 0mm - - 1.6m/s
10:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 3% 5.5°C 0% 5% 0% 0mm 74% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 5% 0mm 1.2m/s 3.1m/s 2.4m/s
11:00
1015hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 1% 5.7°C 0% 5% 0% 0mm 67% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 5% 0mm - - 2.5m/s
12:00
1014hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 5.3°C 0% 5% 0% 0mm 62% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 5% 0mm - - 2.7m/s
13:00
1013hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.8°C 0% 5% 0% 0mm 57% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 5% 0mm 2.1m/s 4.2m/s 2.5m/s
14:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.7°C 0% 5% 0% 0mm 52% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 5% 0mm - - 2.5m/s
15:00
1011hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 5°C 5% 5% 0% 0mm 51% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 5% 0mm - - 2.9m/s
16:00
1011hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.5°C 5% 5% 0% 0mm 61% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 5% 0mm 0.88m/s 3.7m/s 2.6m/s
17:00
1011hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 4.8°C 5% 5% 0% 0mm 73% 0mm -20dBZ 2.5° 5% 0mm - - 2.2m/s
18:00
1011hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6% 4.7°C 5% 5% 0% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -8.3° 6% 0mm - - 2.5m/s
19:00
1011hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 52% 5.1°C 5% 5% 0% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -20° 52% 0mm 4.3m/s 6.2m/s 2.7m/s
20:00
1011hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 67% 5.1°C 5% 5% 0% 0mm 85% 0mm -20dBZ -31° 67% 0mm - - 2.5m/s
21:00
1011hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 58% 5.1°C 5% 51% 0% 0mm 87% 0mm -20dBZ -43° 60% 0mm - - 2.1m/s
22:00
1010hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 5.1°C 5% 6% 0% 0mm 88% 0mm -20dBZ -55° 6% 0mm 5.1m/s 8.9m/s 2m/s
23:00
1009hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.6°C 5% 1% 0% 0mm 90% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 5% 0mm - - 1.7m/s
Sat, Jul 11 Sunrise 07:38 Sunset 17:17
24:00
1008hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 3% 4.8°C 5% 2% 0% 0mm 92% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 5% 0mm - - 1.6m/s
01:00
1008hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5% 5.4°C 6% 5% 0% 0mm 93% 0mm -20dBZ -73° 6% 0mm 5.4m/s 10m/s 1.6m/s
02:00
1007hPa 4J/kg 0fraction 45% 5.2°C 83% 5% 17% 0mm 92% 0mm -20dBZ -65° 83% 0mm - - 1.2m/s
03:00
1006hPa 6J/kg 0fraction 100% 5°C 70% 82% 33% 0mm 88% 0mm -20dBZ -54° 100% 0mm - - 1.9m/s
04:00
1005hPa 4J/kg 0fraction 100% 4.8°C 49% 100% 50% 0mm 84% 0mm -20dBZ -42° 100% 0mm 3.8m/s 9.9m/s 3.2m/s
05:00
1004hPa 2.7J/kg 0fraction 100% 4.3°C 34% 100% 39% 0mm 78% 0mm -20dBZ -30° 100% 0mm - - 5.6m/s
06:00
1004hPa 1.3J/kg 0fraction 100% 3.7°C 19% 100% 28% 0mm 72% 0mm -20dBZ -19° 100% 0mm - - 8m/s
07:00
1003hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 100% 3.2°C 4% 100% 17% 0mm 65% 0mm -20dBZ -7.5° 100% 0mm 9.6m/s 8.2m/s 10m/s
08:00
1002hPa 9.3J/kg 0fraction 67% 2.8°C 36% 100% 36% 0.07mm 69% 0.37mm -20dBZ 3.2° 100% 0.31mm - - 10m/s
09:00
1001hPa 19J/kg 0fraction 33% 2.4°C 68% 100% 56% 0.14mm 73% 0.75mm -20dBZ 13° 100% 0.63mm - - 9.6m/s
10:00
1000hPa 28J/kg 0fraction 0% 2.1°C 100% 100% 76% 0.21mm 77% 1.1mm -20dBZ 20° 100% 0.94mm 8.4m/s 13m/s 9.2m/s
11:00
1001hPa 19J/kg 0fraction 0% 3.1°C 90% 100% 81% 0.14mm 78% 0.75mm -20dBZ 26° 100% 2.3mm - - 8.3m/s
12:00
1001hPa 9.3J/kg 0fraction 0% 4.2°C 80% 100% 87% 0.07mm 79% 0.37mm -20dBZ 29° 100% 3.7mm - - 7.3m/s
13:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 0% 5.3°C 70% 100% 92% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ 29° 100% 5.1mm 14m/s 12m/s 6.3m/s
14:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0.28fraction 0% 4.2°C 55% 68% 94% 0.003mm 78% 0mm -2.5dBZ 26° 74% 5.1mm - - 7.8m/s
15:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0.56fraction 0% 3.2°C 39% 36% 96% 0.007mm 76% 0mm 15dBZ 20° 49% 5.1mm - - 9.3m/s
16:00
1002hPa 0J/kg 0.84fraction 0% 2.1°C 23% 4% 98% 0.01mm 74% 0mm 32dBZ 12° 23% 5.1mm 6.7m/s 8.4m/s 11m/s
17:00
1002hPa 11J/kg 0.56fraction 0% 3.7°C 26% 3% 99% 0.03mm 76% 0.02mm 16dBZ 2.6° 26% 3.5mm - - 11m/s
18:00
1002hPa 21J/kg 0.28fraction 0% 5.3°C 29% 2% 99% 0.04mm 77% 0.03mm -0.94dBZ -8.2° 29% 2mm - - 11m/s
19:00
1003hPa 32J/kg 0fraction 0% 6.8°C 33% 0% 100% 0.06mm 79% 0.05mm -18dBZ -19° 33% 0.44mm 7.5m/s 23m/s 11m/s
20:00
1004hPa 21J/kg 0fraction 0% 7.4°C 23% 1% 72% 0.04mm 79% 0.03mm -18dBZ -31° 23% 0.48mm - - 9.3m/s
21:00
1004hPa 11J/kg 0fraction 0% 7.9°C 14% 2% 43% 0.02mm 80% 0.02mm -19dBZ -43° 14% 0.52mm - - 7.8m/s
22:00
1005hPa 0J/kg 0.004fraction 0% 8.4°C 5% 3% 15% 0mm 80% 0mm -20dBZ -54° 5% 0.56mm 8m/s 8.8m/s 6.3m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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