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Rule Storm Chaser

Storm Chaser Forecast for Geelong, Australian Coast

Geelong, Victoria, Australia

Geelong's Corio Bay waterfront provides piers, marina reflections, and industrial forms, with the Bellarine Peninsula opening toward coastal subjects.

Currently

Real-time conditions
Storm Intensity
0%
CAPE0
Lifted Index11.9°C
Wind Gusts1.9m/s
Precipitation0.0mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne
Next opportunity
Weak Storm
Geelong
Tomorrow · 22:00–23:00 · 1h window
Medium confidence
42%
⛈️Storm Intensity46.3%
CAPE: 54
Lifted Index: 5.0°C
Wind Gusts: 8.6m/s
Precipitation: 2.9mm

How this forecast is evaluated

See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Geelong.

Explore Storm Chaser conditions across Australian Coast →

Recorded match history

Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Geelong during the last 365 days.

Last 30 days
7
recorded matching windows · 54% average confidence
Last 90 days
7
recorded matching windows · 54% average confidence
Last 365 days
7
recorded matching windows · 54% average confidence

Only 7 completed matches are recorded in the last 365 days—insufficient history to identify a reliable typical start time or month.

These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.

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95-hour requirements breakdown

When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.

What passed or failed, hour by hour
1matching hours in the next 95 hoursJump to next match
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Australia/Melbourne
Storm Intensity
≥ 40.0%
Sat, Aug 22
05:000%
06:000%
07:000%
08:000%
09:000%
10:000%
11:000%
12:000%
13:000%
14:000%
15:000%
16:000%
17:000%
18:000%
19:000%
20:000%
21:000%
22:000%
23:000%
Sun, Aug 23
24:000%
01:000%
02:000%
03:000%
04:000%
05:000%
06:000%
07:000%
08:000%
09:000%
10:000%
11:000%
12:000%
13:000%
14:000%
15:000%
16:000%
17:000%
18:000%
19:000%
20:000%
21:000%
22:000%
23:000%
Mon, Aug 24
24:000%
01:000%
02:000%
03:000%
04:000%
05:000%
06:000%
07:000%
08:000%
09:000%
10:000%
11:000%
12:000%
13:000%
14:000%
15:0013%
16:0019%
17:0012%
18:000%
19:000%
20:0026%
21:0031%
22:0046%
23:0020%
Tue, Aug 25
24:0019%
01:0026%
02:0016%
03:0020%
04:0036%
05:0020%
06:0024%
07:0037%
08:0030%
09:0027%
10:0025%
11:0017%
12:0018%
13:000%
14:000%
15:000%
16:000%
17:000%
18:000%
19:000%
20:000%
21:000%
22:000%
23:000%
Wed, Aug 26
24:000%
01:000%
02:000%
03:000%
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

What does Storm Intensity mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Australia/Melbourne
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
Convective Precip Fraction
fraction
Lifted Index
°C
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Total Precipitation
mm
Visibility
m
Wind Gusts
m/s
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Sun, Aug 23 Sunrise 06:59 Sunset 17:52
05:00 ☾
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 12°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 1.9m/s - - 2m/s
06:00 ☾
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 12°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 1.8m/s - - 2m/s
07:00 ☾
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 12°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 1.8m/s 2.9m/s 8.6m/s 1.9m/s
08:00 ☾
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 12°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 3.9m/s - - 1.8m/s
09:00 ☾
1018hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 12°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 3.4m/s - - 2.1m/s
10:00
1017hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 12°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 4m/s 2.8m/s 5.4m/s 2.6m/s
11:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 11°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 4.3m/s - - 2.8m/s
12:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 9.6°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 4.8m/s - - 3.2m/s
13:00
1015hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 8.4°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 5.2m/s 4.9m/s 5.7m/s 3.5m/s
14:00
1014hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 7.5°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 5.7m/s - - 3.4m/s
15:00
1013hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.9°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 6.1m/s - - 3.8m/s
16:00
1013hPa 3J/kg 0fraction 6.4°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 5.3m/s 5.2m/s 4.3m/s 3.5m/s
17:00
1013hPa 4J/kg 0fraction 6.2°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 5.5m/s - - 2.6m/s
18:00 ☾
1014hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.6°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 1.5m/s - - 1.5m/s
19:00 ☾
1014hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 6.4°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 1.1m/s 4.3m/s 4.8m/s 1.2m/s
20:00 ☾
1014hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 6.3°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 1.1m/s - - 1.2m/s
21:00 ☾
1014hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.1°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 1.3m/s - - 1.4m/s
22:00 ☾
1014hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.2°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 1.6m/s 4.9m/s 7.6m/s 1.5m/s
23:00 ☾
1014hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.9m/s - - 1.7m/s
Mon, Aug 24 Sunrise 06:58 Sunset 17:52
24:00 ☾
1013hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 6.2m/s - - 2m/s
01:00 ☾
1013hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.2m/s 3.4m/s 11m/s 1.9m/s
02:00 ☾
1013hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5.9°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 2.9m/s - - 1.9m/s
03:00 ☾
1013hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5.4°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 1.6m/s - - 1.6m/s
04:00 ☾
1012hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 5°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 3.1m/s 6m/s 13m/s 2m/s
05:00 ☾
1012hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 5.8°C 1% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 11m/s - - 2.8m/s
06:00 ☾
1012hPa 2J/kg 0fraction 5.8°C 2% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 11m/s - - 3.1m/s
07:00 ☾
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5.5°C 3% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 3.1m/s 5.8m/s 12m/s 2m/s
08:00 ☾
1013hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5.3°C 10% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 8.9m/s - - 1.4m/s
09:00 ☾
1013hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 5.4°C 16% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 7.9m/s - - 2.3m/s
10:00
1012hPa 0J/kg 0fraction 6.7°C 22% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 6.8m/s 2.7m/s 9.9m/s 3.3m/s
11:00
1012hPa 2J/kg 0fraction 6.9°C 23% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 5.8m/s - - 3.1m/s
12:00
1011hPa 18J/kg 0fraction 6°C 25% 0.01mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24134m 5.3m/s - - 3.4m/s
13:00
1010hPa 25J/kg 0fraction 6.3°C 26% 0mm 0.03mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 4.7m/s 7.9m/s 16m/s 3.2m/s
14:00
1009hPa 42J/kg 0.33fraction 6.3°C 32% 0mm 0.04mm -15dBZ 0.06mm 24134m 4.6m/s - - 3.3m/s
15:00
1009hPa 43J/kg 0.67fraction 6.4°C 38% 0mm 0.17mm -10dBZ 0.13mm 16539m 4.4m/s - - 3.1m/s
16:00
1008hPa 36J/kg 1fraction 6.6°C 44% 0.01mm 0mm -5.1dBZ 0.25mm 24134m 4.4m/s 6.5m/s 15m/s 2m/s
17:00
1009hPa 42J/kg 0.67fraction 6.6°C 47% 0mm 0.01mm 1.2dBZ 0.13mm 24134m 3.4m/s - - 2.2m/s
18:00 ☾
1009hPa 62J/kg 0.33fraction 6.5°C 50% 0mm 0.12mm 7.5dBZ 0.38mm 24129m 3.6m/s - - 2.1m/s
19:00 ☾
1010hPa 86J/kg 0fraction 6.5°C 52% 0mm 0mm 14dBZ 0.44mm 24135m 5.9m/s 4.8m/s 21m/s 2m/s
20:00 ☾
1009hPa 70J/kg 0.33fraction 6.2°C 65% 0mm 1.4mm 17dBZ 0.75mm 5668m 6.1m/s - - 2.1m/s
21:00 ☾
1009hPa 65J/kg 0.67fraction 5.9°C 77% 0mm 1mm 20dBZ 1.7mm 7001m 7.2m/s - - 2m/s
22:00 ☾
1009hPa 54J/kg 1fraction 5°C 89% 0mm 1.3mm 22dBZ 2.9mm 6232m 8.6m/s 11m/s 16m/s 2m/s
23:00 ☾
1008hPa 93J/kg 0.71fraction 5.5°C 91% 0mm 0mm 24dBZ 0.69mm 24134m 1.2m/s - - 1.2m/s
Tue, Aug 25 Sunrise 06:56 Sunset 17:53
24:00 ☾
1007hPa 55J/kg 0.43fraction 3.9°C 93% 0mm 0mm 25dBZ 0.75mm 24135m 2.3m/s - - 1.6m/s
01:00 ☾
1007hPa 19J/kg 0.14fraction 4°C 95% 0.03mm 0mm 27dBZ 0.75mm 24134m 1.3m/s 16m/s 19m/s 1.2m/s
02:00 ☾
1007hPa 51J/kg 0.09fraction 4.6°C 96% 0.22mm 0.04mm 28dBZ 0.81mm 18889m 1m/s - - 0.94m/s
03:00 ☾
1006hPa 8J/kg 0.05fraction 5.4°C 98% 0.96mm 0mm 29dBZ 1.6mm 11135m 0.62m/s - - 0.5m/s
04:00 ☾
1005hPa 22J/kg 0fraction 4.3°C 99% 1.9mm 0mm 30dBZ 2.8mm 6884m 0.72m/s 15m/s 22m/s 0.75m/s
05:00 ☾
1005hPa 7J/kg 0fraction 3.4°C 93% 0.23mm 0mm 26dBZ 1.2mm 24108m 4.6m/s - - 2m/s
06:00 ☾
1005hPa 2J/kg 0fraction 3.2°C 87% 0.71mm 0mm 22dBZ 1.5mm 13330m 5.9m/s - - 1.9m/s
07:00 ☾
1005hPa 1J/kg 0fraction 2.1°C 82% 1.6mm 0mm 18dBZ 2.8mm 4097m 5.4m/s 11m/s 12m/s 1.8m/s
08:00 ☾
1005hPa 2J/kg 0fraction 1.5°C 86% 0.06mm 0mm 20dBZ 3.5mm 1937m 5.1m/s - - 1.8m/s
09:00 ☾
1006hPa 7J/kg 0fraction 1.5°C 90% 0.03mm 0mm 21dBZ 3.6mm 2044m 3.3m/s - - 1.3m/s
10:00
1005hPa 12J/kg 0.002fraction 1°C 94% 0.17mm 0.02mm 22dBZ 3.6mm 22713m 2.7m/s 5.4m/s 6.1m/s 1.7m/s
11:00
1008hPa 11J/kg 0.12fraction 2.1°C 79% 0.12mm 0.01mm 19dBZ 2.5mm 23187m 4.3m/s - - 2.5m/s
12:00
1010hPa 11J/kg 0.23fraction 3.2°C 64% 0.06mm 0.007mm 16dBZ 1.3mm 23661m 5.9m/s - - 3.2m/s
13:00
1013hPa 10J/kg 0.35fraction 4.3°C 49% 0.01mm 0mm 13dBZ 0.13mm 24135m 7.5m/s 9.5m/s 13m/s 4m/s
14:00
1014hPa 6.7J/kg 0.23fraction 5.8°C 49% 0.007mm 0mm 11dBZ 0.15mm 24135m 8.5m/s - - 4.7m/s
15:00
1015hPa 3.3J/kg 0.12fraction 7.2°C 49% 0.003mm 0mm 8.6dBZ 0.17mm 24135m 9.5m/s - - 5.4m/s
16:00
1016hPa 0J/kg 0.001fraction 8.7°C 49% 0mm 0mm 6.4dBZ 0.19mm 24135m 11m/s 3.5m/s 4.6m/s 6.1m/s
17:00
1016hPa 0.33J/kg 0.1fraction 9.5°C 33% 0mm 0mm 6.1dBZ 0.13mm 24135m 10m/s - - 5.5m/s
18:00 ☾
1017hPa 0.67J/kg 0.19fraction 10°C 16% 0mm 0mm 5.8dBZ 0.06mm 24135m 10m/s - - 4.9m/s
19:00 ☾
1017hPa 1J/kg 0.29fraction 11°C 0% 0mm 0mm 5.6dBZ 0mm 24135m 10m/s 5.6m/s 7m/s 4.3m/s
20:00 ☾
1018hPa 0.67J/kg 0.2fraction 11°C 7% 0mm 0mm -3dBZ 0mm 24135m 9.8m/s - - 4.2m/s
21:00 ☾
1018hPa 0.33J/kg 0.1fraction 12°C 15% 0mm 0mm -11dBZ 0mm 24135m 9.6m/s - - 4m/s
22:00 ☾
1018hPa 0J/kg 0.009fraction 12°C 22% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 9.3m/s 3.6m/s 5.1m/s 3.9m/s
23:00 ☾
1019hPa 0.67J/kg 0.01fraction 12°C 15% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 9m/s - - 3.8m/s
Wed, Aug 26 Sunrise 06:55 Sunset 17:54
24:00 ☾
1019hPa 1.3J/kg 0fraction 11°C 7% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 8.7m/s - - 3.7m/s
01:00 ☾
1020hPa 2J/kg 0fraction 11°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 8.3m/s 4.4m/s 7.7m/s 3.6m/s
02:00 ☾
1020hPa 3.3J/kg 0fraction 11°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 7.9m/s - - 3.9m/s
03:00 ☾
1021hPa 4.7J/kg 0fraction 11°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 7.4m/s - - 4.2m/s
04:00 ☾
1021hPa 6J/kg 0fraction 11°C 0% 0mm 0mm -20dBZ 0mm 24135m 6.9m/s 5.3m/s 7.7m/s 4.6m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

How this forecast is made

Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.

The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.

How opportunities work → Weather data sources →
Forecast generated

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