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Rule Storm Chaser

Geelong - Storm Chaser - Australian Coast

Geelong, Victoria, Australia

Dramatic storm conditions — from atmospheric builds to active thunderstorms

No opportunities right now
Here’s what usually blocks matches

No Storm Chaser opportunities in the next 14 days

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Rule requirements (key thresholds)
Storm Intensity · ≥ 55.0% Cloud Drama Score · ≥ 55.0% CAPE · ≥ 1200.0J/kg Lifted Index · ≤ -2.0°C

Tip: Scroll down to the 72-hour table to see exactly which condition fails hour by hour.

Most common blockers (next 72 hours)
Storm Intensity 100% failing
CAPE 100% failing
Cloud Drama Score 74% failing

Currently

Real-time conditions
Cloud Cover100%
Wind Gusts4.3m/s
Precipitation Chance89%
Air Pressure1012.3hPa
CAPE26
Lifted Index2.8°C
Wind Gusts4.3m/s
Precipitation0.3mm

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in Australia/Melbourne

No opportunities in the next 10 days

See the blocker timeline below to understand which conditions are preventing matches.

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast tracks the dramatic storm systems that bring lightning, massive swells, and atmospheric drama to Australia's eastern coastline. We monitor low-pressure systems, lightning activity, and wave heights to predict when Southern Ocean storms will create spectacular—but safe—photography conditions.

Australia's east coast faces the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean, which generate powerful weather systems year-round. These storms bring towering seas that crash against coastal cliffs, creating explosions of spray. Lightning storms, particularly during summer, offer opportunities for long-exposure captures over harbors and beaches. Winter storms bring the largest swells and most dramatic cloud formations.

What makes Australian coastal storms exceptional:

  • Southern Ocean swells - Winter low-pressure systems generate massive groundswells that pound Victoria and southern NSW
  • Wollongong sea cliffs - Dramatic headlands where storm waves explode against cliffs in spectacular displays
  • Byron Bay lightning - Subtropical storms bring frequent lightning over the iconic lighthouse and beaches
  • Sydney storm drama - The harbour becomes wild during southerly busters and east coast lows

Best storm photography occurs during winter (June-August) when Southern Ocean low-pressure systems bring large swells and dramatic skies. Summer thunderstorms (November-February) offer lightning opportunities over coastal icons. East coast lows—intense low-pressure systems—create the most extreme conditions but pose significant safety risks. Our forecast helps identify approaching storms so you can position safely with proper conditions. Never stand on exposed rocks during large swells.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 95 hours
OR logic: one branch per group is enough
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
Australia/Melbourne
Storm Intensity
≥ 55.0%
Cloud Drama Score
≥ 55.0%
CAPE
OR1·B1
≥ 1200.0J/kg
Lifted Index
OR1·B2
≤ -2.0°C
Visibility
≥ 2500.0m
Wind Gusts
≤ 22.0m/s
Sat, May 23
23:000%7.4%0J/kg7.6°C24134m1m/s
Sun, May 24
24:000%8.3%0J/kg7.9°C24135m1.1m/s
01:000%5.6%0J/kg8.6°C24134m0.42m/s
02:000%3%0J/kg8.4°C24135m0.71m/s
03:000%6%0J/kg8.3°C24135m0.32m/s
04:000%9.2%0J/kg7.6°C24134m0.8m/s
05:000%9.2%0J/kg6.2°C24135m0.92m/s
06:000%6.4%0J/kg6.7°C24134m0.9m/s
07:000%58%0J/kg6.3°C24135m1m/s
08:000%46%0J/kg6.6°C24135m1.5m/s
09:000%44%0J/kg6.7°C24135m4.2m/s
10:000%43%0J/kg6.7°C24135m4.3m/s
11:000%47%13J/kg3.2°C24134m5.1m/s
12:000%49%51J/kg4°C24135m5.1m/s
13:000%46%15J/kg4.4°C24135m5.2m/s
14:000%48%25J/kg5.4°C24134m5.2m/s
15:000%57%47J/kg5.8°C24135m6m/s
16:000%55%10J/kg5.5°C24041m3.7m/s
17:000%62%52J/kg4°C24134m7.9m/s
18:000%53%29J/kg3.5°C15774m4.2m/s
19:000%0.1%34J/kg3.7°C24134m5.1m/s
20:000%0%33J/kg3.2°C24135m4.4m/s
21:000%0%45J/kg3.1°C11242m2.2m/s
22:000%0%29J/kg3.8°C10005m1.1m/s
23:000%0%26J/kg2.8°C23219m4.3m/s
Mon, May 25
24:000%0%25J/kg1.9°C23380m3.4m/s
01:000%0%40J/kg2.2°C23173m6.8m/s
02:000%0.2%21J/kg2.2°C24134m5.6m/s
03:000%1.2%0J/kg2.7°C24134m5.4m/s
04:000%1.9%0J/kg2.5°C24134m1.1m/s
05:000%3.1%9J/kg2.6°C24135m1.3m/s
06:000%7.8%15J/kg3.1°C16077m2.6m/s
07:000%71%39J/kg2.8°C24135m4.6m/s
08:000%64%52J/kg2.4°C14924m4.4m/s
09:000%59%38J/kg3.6°C24126m5.8m/s
10:000%57%40J/kg3.9°C24135m5.8m/s
11:000%48%50J/kg3.7°C24135m5.4m/s
12:000%44%41J/kg3.7°C24135m4.7m/s
13:000%44%31J/kg3.5°C24135m4.1m/s
14:000%45%28J/kg3.4°C24134m3.3m/s
15:000%52%24J/kg3.2°C24134m3.3m/s
16:000%52%19J/kg3°C24134m4.4m/s
17:000%59%11J/kg3.5°C24135m4.4m/s
18:000%46%15J/kg3.9°C24134m2.8m/s
19:000%0.9%19J/kg3.8°C24135m1.8m/s
20:000%1.6%11J/kg3.2°C24135m1.6m/s
21:000%2.3%20J/kg2.7°C24134m2.5m/s
22:000%1.8%4J/kg3.1°C24135m7.1m/s
23:000%4.7%8J/kg3.2°C24134m7.2m/s
Tue, May 26
24:000%2.8%7J/kg3°C24134m8.3m/s
01:000%6.1%7J/kg2.7°C24134m8m/s
02:000%5.2%6J/kg2.3°C24134m9.1m/s
03:000%6.1%13J/kg1.9°C24135m11m/s
04:000%0.2%14J/kg1.7°C24134m10m/s
05:000%0.5%13J/kg1.4°C24135m9m/s
06:000%0%11J/kg1.4°C24134m11m/s
07:000%58%16J/kg1.5°C24135m11m/s
08:000%56%15J/kg1.1°C24134m9.4m/s
09:000%55%16J/kg0.7°C24134m9.6m/s
10:000%57%18J/kg0.7°C24135m9.8m/s
11:000%51%29J/kg0.7°C24134m9.6m/s
12:000%30%49J/kg0.3°C24135m9.6m/s
13:000%31%89J/kg1.1°C24099m9.5m/s
14:000%48%67J/kg1.9°C24134m10m/s
15:000%68%64J/kg1°C24134m11m/s
16:000%66%52J/kg1.3°C24135m12m/s
17:000%71%13J/kg2.2°C24134m13m/s
18:000%55%13J/kg2.1°C24135m12m/s
19:0013%0%15J/kg2.3°C24134m12m/s
20:000%0%14J/kg1.7°C24135m12m/s
21:000%0%5J/kg2.2°C24134m11m/s
22:000%0%17J/kg1.7°C24134m11m/s
23:000%0%35J/kg1.9°C24134m10m/s
Wed, May 27
24:000%0%36J/kg2.2°C23978m9.4m/s
01:000%0%23J/kg2.1°C23689m9m/s
02:000%0%48J/kg1.9°C21325m9.4m/s
03:000%0%55J/kg2°C15603m8.6m/s
04:000%1%44J/kg1.8°C24131m7m/s
05:000%0%40J/kg2.1°C24132m6.2m/s
06:000%0%36J/kg2.4°C24134m5.4m/s
07:000%41%32J/kg2.7°C24135m4.6m/s
08:000%94%25J/kg3.1°C24135m4.5m/s
09:000%83%17J/kg3.6°C24135m4.3m/s
10:000%55%10J/kg4°C24135m4.2m/s
11:000%55%9.3J/kg4°C24135m4.3m/s
12:000%44%8.7J/kg4°C24135m4.4m/s
13:000%40%8J/kg4.1°C24135m4.5m/s
14:000%44%7.7J/kg4.3°C24135m3.6m/s
15:000%72%7.3J/kg4.6°C24135m2.6m/s
16:000%81%7J/kg4.9°C24135m1.6m/s
17:000%85%5.3J/kg4.9°C24135m1.6m/s
18:000%46%3.7J/kg5°C24135m1.5m/s
19:000%0%2J/kg5°C24135m1.4m/s
20:000%0%3.7J/kg4.8°C24135m1.4m/s
21:000%0%5.3J/kg4.6°C24135m1.5m/s
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity). For OR groups, only one branch is required, so some OR-branch predicates can be ✕ even in a matching hour.

What does Cloud Drama Score mean?

Inputs that drive the score

This derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.

Time
Australia/Melbourne
Air Pressure
hPa
CAPE
J/kg
High Clouds
%
Lifted Index
°C
Low Clouds
%
Mid-Level Clouds
%
Precipitation Chance
%
Rainfall
mm
Relative Humidity
%
Showers
mm
Simulated Reflectivity
dBZ
Solar Elevation
°
Total Cloud Coverage
%
Total Precipitation
mm
Wind Shear 0-3 km
m/s
Wind Shear 0-6 km
m/s
Wind Speed
m/s
Sun, May 24 Sunrise 07:23 Sunset 17:14
23:00
1012hPa 26J/kg 100% 2.8°C 100% 100% 89% 0.27mm 96% 0.03mm 17dBZ -66° 100% 0.31mm - - 1.5m/s
Mon, May 25 Sunrise 07:23 Sunset 17:14
24:00
1012hPa 25J/kg 100% 1.9°C 100% 100% 86% 0.32mm 96% 0.07mm 18dBZ -72° 100% 0.69mm - - 1.5m/s
01:00
1012hPa 40J/kg 100% 2.2°C 100% 100% 83% 0.06mm 97% 0.2mm 19dBZ -71° 100% 0.94mm 8.2m/s 9m/s 2m/s
02:00
1012hPa 21J/kg 100% 2.2°C 100% 100% 85% 0.22mm 97% 0mm 19dBZ -62° 100% 1.2mm - - 2.1m/s
03:00
1011hPa 0J/kg 92% 2.7°C 54% 74% 88% 0mm 98% 0mm 19dBZ -51° 92% 1.3mm - - 2m/s
04:00
1011hPa 0J/kg 100% 2.5°C 18% 100% 90% 0mm 98% 0mm 19dBZ -40° 100% 1.3mm 7.8m/s 7.6m/s 1.1m/s
05:00
1012hPa 9J/kg 12% 2.6°C 96% 100% 87% 0.32mm 97% 0.01mm 5.9dBZ -28° 100% 0.06mm - - 1.3m/s
06:00
1012hPa 15J/kg 35% 3.1°C 100% 100% 84% 0.73mm 98% 0mm -7dBZ -16° 100% 0.63mm - - 1.4m/s
07:00
1012hPa 39J/kg 100% 2.8°C 100% 78% 81% 0.01mm 99% 0mm -20dBZ -5.2° 100% 0.81mm 8.5m/s 8.4m/s 1.5m/s
08:00
1013hPa 52J/kg 98% 2.4°C 100% 42% 86% 0mm 99% 0.16mm -20dBZ 5.4° 100% 0.81mm - - 1.4m/s
09:00
1013hPa 38J/kg 100% 3.6°C 96% 72% 90% 0mm 98% 0.03mm -20dBZ 15° 100% 0.94mm - - 2.1m/s
10:00
1013hPa 40J/kg 100% 3.9°C 90% 61% 94% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ 23° 100% 0.94mm 5.9m/s 9.8m/s 2.9m/s
11:00
1013hPa 50J/kg 100% 3.7°C 97% 100% 78% 0mm 85% 0.05mm -20dBZ 28° 100% 0.06mm - - 3.2m/s
12:00
1012hPa 41J/kg 100% 3.7°C 86% 100% 61% 0mm 82% 0.01mm -20dBZ 31° 100% 0.13mm - - 2.7m/s
13:00
1012hPa 31J/kg 100% 3.5°C 55% 98% 45% 0mm 75% 0mm -20dBZ 30° 100% 0.19mm 6.8m/s 7.6m/s 2.7m/s
14:00
1011hPa 28J/kg 100% 3.4°C 86% 100% 49% 0mm 72% 0mm -20dBZ 26° 100% 0.19mm - - 2.5m/s
15:00
1011hPa 24J/kg 100% 3.2°C 87% 100% 53% 0mm 72% 0mm -20dBZ 20° 100% 0.19mm - - 2.5m/s
16:00
1012hPa 19J/kg 100% 3°C 82% 100% 56% 0mm 76% 0mm -20dBZ 12° 100% 0.19mm 6m/s 11m/s 2.6m/s
17:00
1012hPa 11J/kg 100% 3.5°C 73% 100% 45% 0mm 85% 0mm -19dBZ 1.9° 100% 0mm - - 2.2m/s
18:00
1012hPa 15J/kg 100% 3.9°C 82% 98% 34% 0mm 91% 0mm -18dBZ -9.1° 100% 0mm - - 1.9m/s
19:00
1013hPa 19J/kg 100% 3.8°C 78% 100% 22% 0mm 93% 0.01mm -18dBZ -20° 100% 0mm 8.3m/s 13m/s 1.7m/s
20:00
1013hPa 11J/kg 100% 3.2°C 59% 73% 20% 0mm 92% 0.06mm -18dBZ -32° 100% 0.06mm - - 1.6m/s
21:00
1013hPa 20J/kg 100% 2.7°C 66% 100% 19% 0mm 92% 0mm -18dBZ -44° 100% 0.06mm - - 1.7m/s
22:00
1013hPa 4J/kg 100% 3.1°C 82% 99% 17% 0mm 92% 0mm -18dBZ -55° 100% 0.06mm 6.8m/s 12m/s 2.3m/s
23:00
1013hPa 8J/kg 100% 3.2°C 63% 100% 15% 0mm 88% 0mm -19dBZ -66° 100% 0mm - - 2.6m/s
Tue, May 26 Sunrise 07:24 Sunset 17:13
24:00
1013hPa 7J/kg 100% 3°C 70% 82% 12% 0mm 88% 0mm -19dBZ -72° 100% 0mm - - 3m/s
01:00
1013hPa 7J/kg 100% 2.7°C 87% 79% 10% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ -71° 100% 0mm 4.6m/s 13m/s 2.8m/s
02:00
1013hPa 6J/kg 100% 2.3°C 80% 30% 40% 0mm 93% 0mm -20dBZ -62° 100% 0mm - - 3m/s
03:00
1013hPa 13J/kg 100% 1.9°C 95% 5% 70% 0mm 91% 0mm -20dBZ -52° 100% 0mm - - 3.5m/s
04:00
1013hPa 14J/kg 100% 1.7°C 75% 6% 100% 0mm 90% 0.01mm -20dBZ -40° 100% 0mm 5.9m/s 14m/s 3.6m/s
05:00
1012hPa 13J/kg 100% 1.4°C 79% 6% 71% 0mm 90% 0.01mm -17dBZ -28° 100% 0mm - - 3.4m/s
06:00
1013hPa 11J/kg 100% 1.4°C 90% 99% 42% 0mm 90% 0.02mm -13dBZ -17° 100% 0mm - - 3.8m/s
07:00
1013hPa 16J/kg 100% 1.5°C 100% 52% 14% 0mm 88% 0.02mm -9.7dBZ -5.3° 100% 0.06mm 8.4m/s 14m/s 4.1m/s
08:00
1014hPa 15J/kg 100% 1.1°C 100% 95% 18% 0mm 84% 0.02mm -13dBZ 5.3° 100% 0.06mm - - 3.5m/s
09:00
1014hPa 16J/kg 100% 0.7°C 100% 80% 22% 0mm 81% 0.03mm -17dBZ 15° 100% 0.13mm - - 4.1m/s
10:00
1013hPa 18J/kg 100% 0.7°C 98% 100% 26% 0mm 78% 0.03mm -20dBZ 22° 100% 0.13mm 7.8m/s 9m/s 4.5m/s
11:00
1013hPa 29J/kg 100% 0.7°C 98% 100% 27% 0mm 76% 0.04mm -20dBZ 28° 100% 0mm - - 5.5m/s
12:00
1012hPa 49J/kg 100% 0.3°C 73% 5% 28% 0mm 81% 0.08mm -20dBZ 31° 100% 0.06mm - - 6m/s
13:00
1011hPa 89J/kg 100% 1.1°C 100% 5% 28% 0mm 81% 0.12mm -20dBZ 30° 100% 0.19mm 8.1m/s 9.1m/s 6m/s
14:00
1011hPa 67J/kg 100% 1.9°C 100% 96% 52% 0mm 86% 0.09mm -19dBZ 26° 100% 0.31mm - - 5.8m/s
15:00
1011hPa 64J/kg 100% 1°C 95% 100% 76% 0.01mm 88% 0.04mm -18dBZ 20° 100% 0.38mm - - 6.3m/s
16:00
1011hPa 52J/kg 100% 1.3°C 98% 92% 100% 0mm 90% 0.06mm -18dBZ 11° 100% 0.44mm 6m/s 7m/s 6.6m/s
17:00
1010hPa 13J/kg 100% 2.2°C 100% 66% 81% 0.01mm 91% 0.02mm -18dBZ 1.9° 100% 0.06mm - - 7.1m/s
18:00
1011hPa 13J/kg 100% 2.1°C 100% 75% 62% 0.01mm 91% 0.02mm -19dBZ -9.2° 100% 0.06mm - - 6.8m/s
19:00
1011hPa 15J/kg 100% 2.3°C 100% 94% 43% 0mm 90% 0.02mm -20dBZ -21° 100% 0.13mm 3.2m/s 14m/s 6.4m/s
20:00
1011hPa 14J/kg 100% 1.7°C 97% 99% 51% 0mm 91% 0.04mm -12dBZ -32° 100% 0.13mm - - 6.3m/s
21:00
1010hPa 5J/kg 100% 2.2°C 95% 100% 58% 0mm 86% 0.02mm -4.8dBZ -44° 100% 0.13mm - - 6m/s
22:00
1010hPa 17J/kg 100% 1.7°C 60% 100% 66% 0mm 89% 0.05mm 2.8dBZ -56° 100% 0.19mm 5.8m/s 8.3m/s 5.5m/s
23:00
1010hPa 35J/kg 100% 1.9°C 89% 100% 65% 0mm 92% 0.12mm 10dBZ -66° 100% 0.06mm - - 5.3m/s
Wed, May 27 Sunrise 07:25 Sunset 17:13
24:00
1010hPa 36J/kg 100% 2.2°C 99% 100% 63% 0mm 92% 0.12mm 17dBZ -73° 100% 0.25mm - - 4.2m/s
01:00
1010hPa 23J/kg 100% 2.1°C 84% 100% 62% 0.08mm 91% 0.07mm 25dBZ -71° 100% 0.38mm 3.5m/s 5.4m/s 3.5m/s
02:00
1009hPa 48J/kg 100% 1.9°C 100% 100% 60% 0.27mm 92% 0.13mm 25dBZ -63° 100% 0.5mm - - 3.7m/s
03:00
1009hPa 55J/kg 56% 2°C 100% 92% 59% 0.03mm 96% 0.3mm 26dBZ -52° 100% 0.94mm - - 2.6m/s
04:00
1009hPa 44J/kg 0% 1.8°C 100% 44% 57% 0mm 98% 0.07mm 27dBZ -40° 100% 1.1mm 11m/s 5.1m/s 2m/s
05:00
1010hPa 40J/kg 1% 2.1°C 73% 31% 72% 0mm 89% 0.08mm 25dBZ -28° 73% 0.77mm - - 2.3m/s
06:00
1011hPa 36J/kg 2% 2.4°C 46% 18% 86% 0mm 81% 0.08mm 22dBZ -17° 46% 0.42mm - - 2.6m/s
07:00
1013hPa 32J/kg 4% 2.7°C 19% 5% 100% 0mm 73% 0.09mm 20dBZ -5.4° 19% 0.06mm 2.6m/s 2.9m/s 2.9m/s
08:00
1013hPa 25J/kg 16% 3.1°C 45% 5% 100% 0.007mm 71% 0.07mm 11dBZ 5.1° 46% 0.13mm - - 2.9m/s
09:00
1013hPa 17J/kg 27% 3.6°C 71% 5% 100% 0.01mm 70% 0.04mm 2.2dBZ 14° 72% 0.19mm - - 2.9m/s
10:00
1013hPa 10J/kg 39% 4°C 97% 5% 100% 0.02mm 68% 0.02mm -6.5dBZ 22° 99% 0.25mm 3.5m/s 4.5m/s 2.9m/s
11:00
1013hPa 9.3J/kg 60% 4°C 96% 32% 73% 0.01mm 72% 0.01mm -4.9dBZ 28° 99% 0.17mm - - 2.9m/s
12:00
1013hPa 8.7J/kg 80% 4°C 95% 59% 47% 0.007mm 75% 0.007mm -3.3dBZ 30° 100% 0.08mm - - 3m/s
13:00
1014hPa 8J/kg 100% 4.1°C 94% 86% 20% 0mm 78% 0mm -1.6dBZ 30° 100% 0mm 4.5m/s 3m/s 3m/s
14:00
1014hPa 7.7J/kg 69% 4.3°C 88% 75% 21% 0mm 78% 0mm -0.01dBZ 26° 93% 0.02mm - - 2.5m/s
15:00
1014hPa 7.3J/kg 37% 4.6°C 81% 63% 21% 0mm 78% 0mm 1.6dBZ 20° 85% 0.04mm - - 2m/s
16:00
1015hPa 7J/kg 6% 4.9°C 74% 51% 22% 0mm 77% 0mm 3.2dBZ 11° 78% 0.06mm 0.64m/s 1.9m/s 1.5m/s
17:00
1014hPa 5.3J/kg 37% 4.9°C 60% 34% 18% 0mm 80% 0mm -0.7dBZ 1.8° 85% 0.04mm - - 1.5m/s
18:00
1014hPa 3.7J/kg 68% 5°C 46% 17% 14% 0mm 83% 0mm -4.7dBZ -9.3° 92% 0.02mm - - 1.5m/s
19:00
1014hPa 2J/kg 99% 5°C 32% 0% 9% 0mm 85% 0mm -8.6dBZ -21° 99% 0mm 2.1m/s 4m/s 1.4m/s
20:00
1014hPa 3.7J/kg 67% 4.8°C 35% 0% 19% 0mm 87% 0mm -12dBZ -32° 80% 0mm - - 1.4m/s
21:00
1013hPa 5.3J/kg 36% 4.6°C 38% 0% 29% 0mm 89% 0mm -16dBZ -44° 61% 0mm - - 1.5m/s
22:00
1013hPa 7J/kg 5% 4.4°C 42% 0% 39% 0mm 90% 0mm -20dBZ -56° 42% 0mm 4m/s 3.6m/s 1.5m/s
How to read: these inputs help produce the derived score; they are not requirements by themselves.

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