Fire Sky Forecast for Geelong, Australian Coast
Geelong's Corio Bay waterfront provides piers, marina reflections, and industrial forms, with the Bellarine Peninsula opening toward coastal subjects.
Currently
Real-time conditionsUpcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Fire Sky conditions across Australian Coast. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Geelong.
Explore Fire Sky conditions across Australian Coast →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Geelong during the last 365 days.
07:00 local time, shared by 27 of 52 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
May, with 13 of 52 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
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95-hour requirements breakdown
When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.
Time Australia/Melbourne | Golden Hour Any | Fiery Red Sky Potential ≥ 65.0% | Precipitation Chance ≤ 15.0% | Visibility ≥ 8000.0m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Aug 22 | ||||
| 05:00 | ✕ | 17% | 55% | 24135m |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 18% | 27% | 24135m |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 69% | 0% | 24135m |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 0.4% | 0% | 24132m |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 0.8% | 0% | 24134m |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 10% | 0% | 24134m |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 13% | 26% | 24135m |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 5.3% | 14% | 24135m |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 5.1% | 0.91% | 24135m |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 5% | 0.61% | 24134m |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 6.1% | 0.3% | 24134m |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 9% | 0% | 24134m |
| 17:00 | ✓ | 5.8% | 0% | 24134m |
| 18:00 | ✓ | 44% | 0% | 24135m |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 4.8% | 0% | 24135m |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 4.8% | 0% | 24134m |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 4.7% | 0% | 24134m |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 4.8% | 0% | 24134m |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 4.8% | 0% | 24135m |
| Sun, Aug 23 | ||||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 7.3% | 0% | 24134m |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 5% | 0% | 24134m |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 7.6% | 0% | 24135m |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 7.6% | 0% | 24134m |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 10% | 0% | 24134m |
| 05:00 | ✕ | 11% | 0% | 24134m |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 33% | 0% | 24135m |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 100% | 0% | 24135m |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 33% | 0% | 24134m |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 11% | 0% | 24134m |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 9.4% | 0% | 24134m |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 9.1% | 0% | 24134m |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 5.4% | 0% | 24134m |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 4.9% | 0% | 24134m |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 6% | 0% | 24134m |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 5% | 0% | 24135m |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 7.2% | 0% | 24135m |
| 17:00 | ✓ | 7.2% | 0% | 24135m |
| 18:00 | ✓ | 53% | 0% | 24134m |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 18% | 0% | 24134m |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 29% | 0% | 24134m |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 30% | 0% | 24135m |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 33% | 0% | 24135m |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 15% | 0% | 24135m |
| Mon, Aug 24 | ||||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 29% | 0% | 24134m |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 15% | 0% | 24135m |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 34% | 0% | 24135m |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 32% | 0% | 24134m |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 20% | 0% | 24135m |
| 05:00 | ✕ | 14% | 1.2% | 24134m |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 40% | 2.3% | 24134m |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 67% | 3.5% | 24134m |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 34% | 9.7% | 24134m |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 32% | 16% | 24134m |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 24% | 22% | 24134m |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 33% | 23% | 24134m |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 30% | 25% | 24134m |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 29% | 26% | 24135m |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 22% | 32% | 24134m |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 23% | 38% | 16539m |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 12% | 44% | 24134m |
| 17:00 | ✓ | 12% | 47% | 24134m |
| 18:00 | ✓ | 14% | 50% | 24129m |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 13% | 52% | 24135m |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 8.5% | 65% | 5668m |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 10% | 77% | 7001m |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 8.1% | 89% | 6232m |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 13% | 91% | 24134m |
| Tue, Aug 25 | ||||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 12% | 93% | 24135m |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 13% | 95% | 24134m |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 11% | 96% | 18889m |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 11% | 98% | 11135m |
| 04:00 | ✕ | 9.6% | 99% | 6884m |
| 05:00 | ✕ | 15% | 93% | 24108m |
| 06:00 | ✓ | 14% | 87% | 13330m |
| 07:00 | ✓ | 13% | 82% | 4097m |
| 08:00 | ✕ | 23% | 86% | 1937m |
| 09:00 | ✕ | 13% | 90% | 2044m |
| 10:00 | ✕ | 11% | 94% | 22713m |
| 11:00 | ✕ | 0% | 79% | 23187m |
| 12:00 | ✕ | 0% | 64% | 23661m |
| 13:00 | ✕ | 0% | 49% | 24135m |
| 14:00 | ✕ | 0% | 49% | 24135m |
| 15:00 | ✕ | 0% | 49% | 24135m |
| 16:00 | ✕ | 0% | 49% | 24135m |
| 17:00 | ✓ | 0% | 33% | 24135m |
| 18:00 | ✓ | 16% | 16% | 24135m |
| 19:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0% | 24135m |
| 20:00 | ✕ | 0% | 7.4% | 24135m |
| 21:00 | ✕ | 0% | 15% | 24135m |
| 22:00 | ✕ | 0% | 22% | 24135m |
| 23:00 | ✕ | 0% | 15% | 24135m |
| Wed, Aug 26 | ||||
| 24:00 | ✕ | 0% | 7.4% | 24135m |
| 01:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0% | 24135m |
| 02:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0% | 24135m |
| 03:00 | ✕ | 0% | 0% | 24135m |
What does Fiery Red Sky Potential mean?
Inputs that drive the scoreThis derived score summarizes multiple raw weather signals. The table below shows the supporting inputs hour by hour, so you can see what's pushing the score up or down.
| Time Australia/Melbourne | Aerosol Optical Depth (550nm) | Clear Sky Probability (Ensemble) % | Cloud Cover Uncertainty (Ensemble) % | Dust AOD (550nm) | Golden Hour | High Clouds % | Low Clouds % | Mid-Level Clouds % | RH @ 700 hPa % | Smoke AOD (550nm) | Solar Elevation ° | Sunshine Duration seconds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Aug 23
Sunrise 06:59
Sunset 17:52 | ||||||||||||
| 05:00
☾
| 0.09 | 79% | 13% | 0.002 | - | 5% | 2% | 0% | 11% | 0.01 | -24° | 0seconds |
| 06:00
☾
| 0.08 | 59% | 21% | 0.002 | - | 73% | 4% | 0% | 10% | 0.01 | -12° | 0seconds |
| 07:00
☾
| 0.07 | 39% | 28% | 0.002 | - | 60% | 5% | 0% | 9.3% | 0.008 | 0.11° | 0seconds |
| 08:00
☾
| 0.07 | 46% | 25% | 0.002 | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 9.6% | 0.008 | 11° | 0seconds |
| 09:00
☾
| 0.07 | 53% | 23% | 0.001 | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 9.8% | 0.008 | 21° | 0seconds |
| 10:00 | 0.07 | 60% | 20% | 0.001 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0.009 | 30° | 0seconds |
| 11:00 | 0.07 | 73% | 16% | 0.001 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 0.009 | 37° | 3600seconds |
| 12:00 | 0.07 | 86% | 11% | 0.001 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 0.009 | 40° | 3600seconds |
| 13:00 | 0.07 | 99% | 7% | 0.001 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 0.008 | 40° | 3600seconds |
| 14:00 | 0.07 | 98% | 8% | 0 | - | 0% | 4% | 0% | 13% | 0.007 | 36° | 3600seconds |
| 15:00 | 0.07 | 97% | 9% | 0 | - | 0% | 1% | 0% | 12% | 0.007 | 29° | 3600seconds |
| 16:00 | 0.06 | 96% | 10% | 0 | - | 0% | 4% | 0% | 10% | 0.006 | 20° | 3600seconds |
| 17:00 | 0.06 | 96% | 10% | 0 | - | 0% | 1% | 0% | 19% | 0.006 | 9.2° | 3600seconds |
| 18:00
☾
| 0.06 | 97% | 9% | 0 | - | 0% | 9% | 0% | 28% | 0.006 | -2° | 0seconds |
| 19:00
☾
| 0.05 | 97% | 9% | 0 | - | 6% | 9% | 0% | 37% | 0.007 | -14° | 0seconds |
| 20:00
☾
| 0.05 | 89% | 11% | 0 | - | 75% | 0% | 0% | 35% | 0.008 | -26° | 0seconds |
| 21:00
☾
| 0.05 | 82% | 14% | 0 | - | 81% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0.009 | -37° | 0seconds |
| 22:00
☾
| 0.04 | 74% | 16% | 0 | - | 100% | 0% | 0% | 32% | 0.009 | -48° | 0seconds |
| 23:00
☾
| 0.04 | 56% | 21% | 0 | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0.009 | -57° | 0seconds |
| Mon, Aug 24
Sunrise 06:58
Sunset 17:52 | ||||||||||||
| 24:00
☾
| 0.04 | 39% | 25% | 0 | - | 40% | 0% | 0% | 34% | 0.009 | -63° | 0seconds |
| 01:00
☾
| 0.05 | 21% | 30% | 0 | - | 100% | 1% | 100% | 36% | 0.009 | -62° | 0seconds |
| 02:00
☾
| 0.05 | 17% | 27% | 0 | - | 100% | 0% | 37% | 34% | 0.009 | -56° | 0seconds |
| 03:00
☾
| 0.06 | 14% | 25% | 0.001 | - | 100% | 44% | 100% | 33% | 0.01 | -46° | 0seconds |
| 04:00
☾
| 0.06 | 10% | 22% | 0.001 | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 32% | 0.01 | -35° | 0seconds |
| 05:00
☾
| 0.08 | 7% | 21% | 0.001 | - | 100% | 98% | 98% | 32% | 0.01 | -24° | 0seconds |
| 06:00
☾
| 0.08 | 5% | 20% | 0.001 | - | 50% | 2% | 46% | 32% | 0.01 | -12° | 0seconds |
| 07:00
☾
| 0.08 | 2% | 19% | 0.001 | - | 100% | 0% | 100% | 32% | 0.02 | 0.33° | 0seconds |
| 08:00
☾
| 0.09 | 2% | 19% | 0.001 | - | 100% | 2% | 100% | 34% | 0.02 | 11° | 0seconds |
| 09:00
☾
| 0.09 | 2% | 19% | 0.001 | - | 5% | 1% | 90% | 35% | 0.02 | 21° | 0seconds |
| 10:00 | 0.1 | 2% | 19% | 0.002 | - | 100% | 0% | 100% | 36% | 0.02 | 30° | 0seconds |
| 11:00 | - | 1% | 16% | - | - | 100% | 2% | 88% | 37% | - | 37° | 3600seconds |
| 12:00 | - | 1% | 14% | - | - | 100% | 4% | 95% | 38% | - | 40° | 3600seconds |
| 13:00 | - | 0% | 11% | - | - | 53% | 11% | 93% | 39% | - | 40° | 3600seconds |
| 14:00 | - | 0% | 9% | - | - | 100% | 37% | 97% | 38% | - | 36° | 3600seconds |
| 15:00 | - | 0% | 8% | - | - | 100% | 24% | 89% | 37% | - | 29° | 3600seconds |
| 16:00 | - | 0% | 6% | - | - | 100% | 1% | 100% | 36% | - | 20° | 3600seconds |
| 17:00 | - | 0% | 4% | - | - | 100% | 34% | 100% | 45% | - | 9.4° | 0seconds |
| 18:00
☾
| - | 0% | 2% | - | - | 100% | 38% | 100% | 54% | - | -1.8° | 0seconds |
| 19:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 7% | 100% | 63% | - | -14° | 0seconds |
| 20:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 69% | - | -25° | 0seconds |
| 21:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 66% | 100% | 75% | - | -37° | 0seconds |
| 22:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | -48° | 0seconds |
| 23:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 52% | 100% | 86% | - | -57° | 0seconds |
| Tue, Aug 25
Sunrise 06:56
Sunset 17:53 | ||||||||||||
| 24:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 62% | 100% | 92% | - | -62° | 0seconds |
| 01:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | - | -62° | 0seconds |
| 02:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 98% | 100% | 98% | - | -55° | 0seconds |
| 03:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | - | -46° | 0seconds |
| 04:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | - | -35° | 0seconds |
| 05:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 100% | 63% | 99% | - | -23° | 0seconds |
| 06:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 100% | 100% | 81% | 99% | - | -12° | 0seconds |
| 07:00
☾
| - | 0% | 0% | - | - | 86% | 100% | 100% | 99% | - | 0.56° | 0seconds |
| 08:00
☾
| - | 0% | 1% | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | - | 11° | 0seconds |
| 09:00
☾
| - | 0% | 3% | - | - | 96% | 100% | 91% | 99% | - | 22° | 0seconds |
| 10:00 | - | 0% | 4% | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | - | 31° | 0seconds |
| 11:00 | - | 1% | 8% | - | - | 67% | 68% | 67% | 98% | - | 37° | 0seconds |
| 12:00 | - | 1% | 12% | - | - | 33% | 37% | 33% | 98% | - | 41° | 0seconds |
| 13:00 | - | 2% | 16% | - | - | 0% | 5% | 0% | 98% | - | 40° | 0seconds |
| 14:00 | - | 2% | 16% | - | - | 0% | 3% | 0% | 93% | - | 36° | 0seconds |
| 15:00 | - | 1% | 15% | - | - | 0% | 2% | 0% | 88% | - | 29° | 0seconds |
| 16:00 | - | 1% | 15% | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 83% | - | 20° | 0seconds |
| 17:00 | - | 9% | 21% | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 58% | - | 9.5° | 0seconds |
| 18:00
☾
| - | 17% | 27% | - | - | 0% | 1% | 0% | 33% | - | -1.6° | 0seconds |
| 19:00
☾
| - | 25% | 33% | - | - | 0% | 1% | 0% | 7.4% | - | -13° | 0seconds |
| 20:00
☾
| - | 27% | 33% | - | - | 0% | 24% | 0% | 7.7% | - | -25° | 0seconds |
| 21:00
☾
| - | 30% | 32% | - | - | 0% | 47% | 0% | 7.9% | - | -37° | 0seconds |
| 22:00
☾
| - | 32% | 32% | - | - | 0% | 69% | 0% | 8.2% | - | -48° | 0seconds |
| 23:00
☾
| - | 41% | 33% | - | - | 2% | 79% | 0% | 11% | - | -57° | 0seconds |
| Wed, Aug 26
Sunrise 06:55
Sunset 17:54 | ||||||||||||
| 24:00
☾
| - | 49% | 34% | - | - | 3% | 89% | 0% | 13% | - | -62° | 0seconds |
| 01:00
☾
| - | 58% | 35% | - | - | 5% | 99% | 0% | 15% | - | -61° | 0seconds |
| 02:00
☾
| - | 58% | 34% | - | - | 3% | 99% | 0% | 14% | - | -55° | 0seconds |
| 03:00
☾
| - | 58% | 33% | - | - | 2% | 100% | 0% | 12% | - | -46° | 0seconds |
| 04:00
☾
| - | 58% | 32% | - | - | 0% | 100% | 0% | 11% | - | -35° | 0seconds |
How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
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