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Rule Northern Lights

Valdez - Northern Lights - Alaska

Valdez, Alaska, United States

Northern Lights photography conditions - combines aurora activity levels with clear skies and proper darkness for optimal viewing.

Currently

Real-time conditions
Kp IndexKp 3 (Quiet)
Sun Elevation6.0° (Golden hour)
Cloud Cover100%

Upcoming Opportunities

When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.

Times shown in America/Anchorage
Next opportunity
Good Chance of Aurora
Valdez
Fri, Feb 13 · 24:00–07:00 · 7h window
Low confidence
25%
🌌Aurora Quality62.5-65.8%
Kp Index: Kp 5 (Minor Storm)
Sun Elevation: -37.4° (Astronomical night)
Cloud Cover: 6%
starry-night weather icon
Good Chance of Aurora at Dawn
Valdez
Fri, Feb 13 · 07:00–08:00
🌌Aurora Quality:64.4%
Low

What this forecast looks for

Plain-language explanation from the rule

This forecast answers the question every aurora photographer asks: "Can I actually see the aurora tonight?" Unlike simple Kp forecasts, we combine NOAA's OVATION aurora model with real-time cloud cover, visibility, and darkness data to predict true viewing conditions.

Alaska's interior sits directly under the auroral oval, making it one of the world's most reliable aurora viewing destinations. Fairbanks, in particular, experiences aurora activity on roughly 240 nights per year—more than almost anywhere else accessible by road.

What makes Alaska special for aurora photography:

  • Auroral oval position - Fairbanks sits at the ideal 65°N latitude, directly under the oval's typical position
  • Extreme darkness - Winter nights can last 18+ hours, maximizing viewing opportunities
  • Dramatic foregrounds - Snow-covered mountains, frozen rivers, and boreal forests create stunning compositions
  • Research heritage - The University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute provides world-class aurora forecasting

Best conditions typically occur September through March, with peak activity during the equinox months. The interior's continental climate means clearer skies than coastal areas, though temperatures can plunge well below -30°C. Dress accordingly and keep camera batteries warm.

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72-hour requirements breakdown

What passed or failed, hour by hour
0matching hours in the next 72 hours
AND logic: all conditions required
Meets requirement
Misses requirement
Time
America/Anchorage
Aurora Quality
≥ 50.0%
Solar Elevation
≤ -8.0°
Aurora Activity
≥ 50.0%
Total Cloud Coverage
≤ 30.0%
Visibility
≥ 8000.0m
Sat, Feb 7
09:000%0.74°11%100%16136m
10:000%11%100%8912m
11:000%10°11%100%9706m
12:000%13°26%100%720m
13:000%14°26%100%233m
14:000%13°26%99%158m
15:000%10°51%98%233m
16:000%51%93%336m
17:000%0.74°51%97%182m
18:000%-6.1°26%98%133m
19:000%-13°26%96%144m
20:000%-20°26%95%150m
21:000%-27°20%96%104m
22:000%-34°20%98%93m
23:000%-39°20%98%98m
Sun, Feb 8
24:000%-43°20%98%98m
01:000%-44°20%99%100m
02:000%-43°20%100%81m
03:000%-39°0%99%70m
04:000%-34°0%99%66m
05:000%-27°0%98%69m
06:000%-20°20%100%69m
07:000%-13°20%100%56m
08:000%-5.8°20%100%40m
09:000%0.99°20%100%32m
10:000%6.3°20%100%29m
11:000%11°20%100%31m
12:000%13°26%100%37m
13:000%14°26%100%30m
14:000%13°26%100%26m
15:000%11°20%100%25m
16:000%6.3°20%100%32m
17:000%20%100%44m
18:000%-5.8°11%100%58m
19:000%-13°11%100%57m
20:000%-20°11%100%49m
21:000%-27°0%100%43m
22:000%-34°0%100%48m
23:000%-39°0%100%73m
Mon, Feb 9
24:000%-42°15%100%82m
01:000%-43°15%100%85m
02:000%-42°15%100%73m
03:000%-39°15%100%62m
04:000%-33°15%100%67m
05:000%-27°15%100%55m
06:000%-20°20%100%52m
07:000%-13°20%100%51m
08:000%-5.5°20%100%55m
09:000%1.2°15%100%57m
10:000%6.6°15%100%59m
11:000%11°15%100%63m
12:000%14°26%100%63m
13:000%14°26%100%59m
14:000%14°26%100%61m
15:000%11°15%100%73m
16:000%6.6°15%100%58m
17:000%1.3°15%100%42m
18:000%-5.5°15%100%27m
19:000%-13°15%100%28m
20:000%-20°15%100%29m
21:000%-27°15%100%31m
22:000%-33°15%100%30m
23:000%-38°15%100%29m
Tue, Feb 10
24:000%-42°15%100%28m
01:000%-43°15%100%28m
02:000%-42°15%100%28m
03:000%-38°15%100%28m
04:000%-33°15%100%28m
05:000%-27°15%100%28m
06:000%-20°15%100%28m
07:000%-12°15%100%28m
08:000%-5.3°15%100%29m
How to read: colored cells show whether each predicate requirement is met; highlighted rows mean the full rule matched (an opportunity).

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