Northern Lights Forecast for Fairbanks, Alaska
Fairbanks overlooks the Tanana Valley, where spruce forest, frozen rivers, and low ridges provide dark, uncluttered foregrounds for aurora.
Currently
Real-time conditionsUpcoming Opportunities
When all conditions match, PhotoWeather marks an opportunity window.
No opportunities in the next 14 days
See which requirements block the most forecast hours below.
Most common blockers (95-hour forecast)
- Aurora Quality100% of hours
- Total Cloud Coverage99% of hours
- Aurora Activity88% of hours
How this forecast is evaluated
See which weather signals PhotoWeather uses to identify Northern Lights conditions across Alaska. The requirements and hourly values below show how those signals apply at Fairbanks.
Explore Northern Lights conditions across Alaska →Recorded match history
Completed PhotoWeather forecast matches recorded for this exact rule at Fairbanks during the last 365 days.
22:00 local time, shared by 4 of 20 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
March, with 9 of 20 matches recorded in the last 365 days.
These figures use completed PhotoWeather MatchEvent records from the previous 365 days only. They describe recorded forecast matches, not observations, climatological probability, or a guarantee of future conditions.
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95-hour requirements breakdown
When available, the detailed table below covers only the stated 95-hour horizon (typically 72–168 hours, depending on available hourly data). Opportunity records above span the next 14 days, so this table does not explain that entire 14-day period.
Time America/Anchorage | Aurora Quality ≥ 50.0% | Solar Elevation ≤ -8.0° | Aurora Activity ≥ 50.0% | Total Cloud Coverage ≤ 30.0% | Visibility ≥ 8000.0m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 5 | |||||
| 21:00 | 0% | -1.3° | 23% | 100% | 21140m |
| 22:00 | 0% | -7.2° | 29% | 71% | 24135m |
| 23:00 | 0% | -12° | 27% | 21% | 24135m |
| Sun, Sep 6 | |||||
| 24:00 | 0% | -16° | 27% | 17% | 24135m |
| 01:00 | 0% | -18° | 25% | 18% | 24135m |
| 02:00 | 27% | -19° | 25% | 6.2% | 24134m |
| 03:00 | 32% | -18° | 23% | 10% | 24135m |
| 04:00 | 23% | -15° | 20% | 19% | 20591m |
| 05:00 | 12% | -11° | 18% | 21% | 19510m |
| 06:00 | 0% | -5.4° | 16% | 12% | 19715m |
| 07:00 | 0% | 0.93° | 14% | 14% | 19336m |
| 08:00 | 0% | 6.9° | 14% | 33% | 19107m |
| 09:00 | 0% | 13° | 16% | 44% | 19212m |
| 10:00 | 0% | 19° | 14% | 47% | 19906m |
| 11:00 | 0% | 24° | 11% | 31% | 24135m |
| 12:00 | 0% | 28° | 8% | 47% | 24135m |
| 13:00 | 0% | 31° | 8% | 82% | 24135m |
| 14:00 | 0% | 31° | 8% | 97% | 24135m |
| 15:00 | 0% | 30° | 8% | 73% | 24134m |
| 16:00 | 0% | 27° | 28% | 57% | 24134m |
| 17:00 | 0% | 22° | 28% | 63% | 24134m |
| 18:00 | 0% | 17° | 28% | 100% | 24134m |
| 19:00 | 0% | 11° | 11% | 100% | 24135m |
| 20:00 | 0% | 4.5° | 18% | 100% | 24134m |
| 21:00 | 0% | -1.7° | 18% | 100% | 24134m |
| 22:00 | 0% | -7.6° | 18% | 100% | 24135m |
| 23:00 | 0% | -13° | 8.1% | 100% | 24134m |
| Mon, Sep 7 | |||||
| 24:00 | 0% | -16° | 8.1% | 100% | 24134m |
| 01:00 | 0% | -19° | 22% | 100% | 24134m |
| 02:00 | 0% | -19° | 22% | 100% | 24134m |
| 03:00 | 0% | -18° | 22% | 100% | 24135m |
| 04:00 | 0% | -15° | 22% | 100% | 24135m |
| 05:00 | 0% | -11° | 22% | 100% | 24134m |
| 06:00 | 0% | -5.7° | 22% | 100% | 24135m |
| 07:00 | 0% | 0.66° | 28% | 100% | 24134m |
| 08:00 | 0% | 6.6° | 28% | 100% | 24135m |
| 09:00 | 0% | 13° | 28% | 100% | 23374m |
| 10:00 | 0% | 19° | 36% | 100% | 19781m |
| 11:00 | 0% | 24° | 36% | 100% | 20133m |
| 12:00 | 0% | 28° | 36% | 100% | 19920m |
| 13:00 | 0% | 30° | 45% | 100% | 18935m |
| 14:00 | 0% | 31° | 45% | 100% | 21776m |
| 15:00 | 0% | 30° | 45% | 100% | 24135m |
| 16:00 | 0% | 27° | 45% | 100% | 24135m |
| 17:00 | 0% | 22° | 45% | 100% | 24134m |
| 18:00 | 0% | 17° | 45% | 60% | 24135m |
| 19:00 | 0% | 10° | 45% | 12% | 24134m |
| 20:00 | 0% | 4.1° | 45% | 62% | 24135m |
| 21:00 | 0% | -2.1° | 45% | 45% | 24135m |
| 22:00 | 0% | -8° | 100% | 93% | 24135m |
| 23:00 | 0% | -13° | 100% | 100% | 24134m |
| Tue, Sep 8 | |||||
| 24:00 | 0% | -17° | 100% | 100% | 24135m |
| 01:00 | 0% | -19° | 100% | 93% | 24134m |
| 02:00 | 0% | -20° | 100% | 94% | 24134m |
| 03:00 | 0% | -18° | 100% | 100% | 24134m |
| 04:00 | 0% | -15° | 100% | 90% | 24134m |
| 05:00 | 0% | -11° | 100% | 100% | 24135m |
| 06:00 | 0% | -6° | 100% | 100% | 24135m |
| 07:00 | 0% | 0.4° | 45% | 100% | 24135m |
| 08:00 | 0% | 6.3° | 45% | 100% | 24135m |
| 09:00 | 0% | 13° | 45% | 100% | 24134m |
| 10:00 | 0% | 18° | 36% | 100% | 24135m |
| 11:00 | 0% | 24° | 36% | 100% | 20556m |
| 12:00 | 0% | 28° | 36% | 100% | 21823m |
| 13:00 | 0% | 30° | 28% | 100% | 12968m |
| 14:00 | 0% | 31° | 28% | 100% | 23006m |
| 15:00 | 0% | 29° | 28% | 100% | 17008m |
| 16:00 | 0% | 26° | 22% | 100% | 22908m |
| 17:00 | 0% | 22° | 22% | 100% | 24134m |
| 18:00 | 0% | 16° | 22% | 100% | 24134m |
| 19:00 | 0% | 10° | 16% | 100% | 13790m |
| 20:00 | 0% | 3.8° | 16% | 100% | 9351m |
| 21:00 | 0% | -2.5° | 16% | 100% | 10507m |
| 22:00 | 0% | -8.4° | 12% | 100% | 12165m |
| 23:00 | 0% | -13° | 12% | 100% | 10795m |
| Wed, Sep 9 | |||||
| 24:00 | 0% | -17° | 12% | 100% | 8967m |
| 01:00 | 0% | -19° | 12% | 100% | 8656m |
| 02:00 | 0% | -20° | 12% | 100% | 9878m |
| 03:00 | 0% | -19° | 12% | 100% | 14189m |
| 04:00 | 0% | -16° | 8.1% | 100% | 17428m |
| 05:00 | 0% | -12° | 8.1% | 100% | 19581m |
| 06:00 | 0% | -6.3° | 8.1% | 100% | 21734m |
| 07:00 | 0% | 0.14° | 8.1% | 100% | 23888m |
| 08:00 | 0% | 6° | 8.1% | 100% | 23970m |
| 09:00 | 0% | 12° | 8.1% | 100% | 24052m |
| 10:00 | 0% | 18° | 8.1% | 100% | 24135m |
| 11:00 | 0% | 23° | 8.1% | 100% | 20913m |
| 12:00 | 0% | 27° | 8.1% | 100% | 17691m |
| 13:00 | 0% | 30° | 12% | 100% | 14469m |
| 14:00 | 0% | 30° | 12% | 96% | 17389m |
| 15:00 | 0% | 29° | 12% | 91% | 20308m |
| 16:00 | 0% | 26° | 8.1% | 87% | 23228m |
| 17:00 | 0% | 21° | 8.1% | 91% | 23531m |
| 18:00 | 0% | 16° | 8.1% | 96% | 23833m |
| 19:00 | 0% | 9.7° | 8.1% | 100% | 24135m |
How this forecast is made
Opportunities are threshold-based signals: PhotoWeather checks whether forecast conditions match the rules for a photography scenario. They are planning guidance, not guarantees. Forecasts can change as new model runs arrive, and confidence generally decreases farther into the forecast horizon, so recheck conditions before travelling.
The weather forecast foundation comes through Open-Meteo , which aggregates models from weather agencies. PhotoWeather applies condition-specific thresholds and derived calculations; not every condition uses every model or data input.
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